Dozier Trade Talk Heating Up?

 

Well.. Dozier was perhaps the biggest reason that they were even in contention in '15.  If the begging of 2016 is your only other measure of value, there isn't one other member of the team that has any value.  Not one.

 

Polanco is likely to have higher BA and OBP, but not likely anything else, so how will he be a better hitter?  As to your second point, Polanco at SS (if he plays at current levels) is a very small problem if all the other problems are considered.  3B, LF, RF, 1B, C, 4 RPs and 4 SPs are all bigger problems in my opinion.  The only players that I'm fairly confident to have good years are E Santana, Dozier, Buxton, and Chargois,  

 

 

On the first point above, that is absolutely wrong. Dozier had 2.4 WAR in 2015. Good. But it was easily his weakest season in the past three. No, the single biggest reason for the Twins' being in contention in 2015 was the emergence of Miguel Sano and his +.900 OPS that season, which was by far better than anything Dozier has done in his career.

 

On the second, no, you do not simply insert a shortstop who cannot make the throw to first and say it's a "very small problem." It's a vital, up-the-middle position that requires solid defense. Getting a good shortstop who can field well is exceedingly important if this team is going to start winning.

 

It is more important than 3B, RF and LF. And believe me, your four relief pitchers and four starting pitchers will have a MUCH easier time if their shortstop can field well.

 

This team has stunk for most of the past six years. And a HUGE reason they've stunk for most of the past six years is the garbage they have put forth at shortstop year in and year out. 

 

So no, shortstop isn't a "very minor problem" and tolerating bad fielding at that position is not in any way something the Twins should tolerate. 

 

Since the price for Dozier is presumably very high, everyone thinks of the Dodgers right away because of all their prospects. But there is another team that has a history developing young pitching well, the St.Louis Cardinals. It is a little outside the box but not outside the realm of possibility.

 

Kolten Wong, their primary second basemen last season, played in 121 with a .327 OBP,  .355 SLG, .682 OPS, and 82 OPS+. Mediocre numbers at best. The Cardinals could stay with him, but why would they when Brian Dozier is rumored to be on the trade block.

 

The Cardinals finished the season 86-76, second in the NL Central and just missing out on a wild card. The Cardinals probably feel like they have to add to stay competitive in their division with the Cubs being looked at to be a main stay at the top of the division for years to come and it won't take long for the Pirates to turn it around after a sub-par 2016 season.

 

If the Cardinals contacted the Twins about Brian Dozier, the Twins would probably say they want Alex Reyes. And rightfully so. But it would probably take more that Dozier to trade for Reyes. A package of Dozier, Rosario, and Gibson could maybe start to make the Cardinals think about it. If they are reluctant to trade away Reyes, the Twins could target Luke Weaver. Weaver is their number 2 prospect with some big league experience. Along with Weaver the Twins would likely pick up Wong, which would be okay. His contract isn't expensive money wise but has some years on it. He is signed thru 2020 with 25.5 million left and also has a option for 2021.

 

Well, I don't think the Twins would trade three guys and 11 years of control for one pitcher.  I don't really see a Reyes to Twins plan that would work.  But the Cards could still be a factor.  Besides Weaver, they have a number of young pitchers in the majors as well.  

 

 

Like the 1st post, Sheeran! I don't think the Cardinals are going to look to move on from Wong (they signed him through 2020 last spring) but who knows?

 

I have seen lots of rumors involving Weaver or Wacha for other guys. Not sure either makes a ton of sense for the Twins but perhaps there could be something there. Worth watching.

Not exactly sure what folks are talking about with Puig's bit contract... 6.5 and 7.5 million the next two years. For all star talent? Add de Larosa and some lower level arms and deal is done. Slot Puig in the OF and in the middle of the order to pick up the missing production. Makes too much sense.

 

Dozier is my favorite player but for the Twins longterm winning it may need to be done.

The things I would trade Dozier for:

1. Pitching

2. Pitching

3. Pitching

4. Someone to flip for pitching

5. An elite defensive SS.

Teams that pitch and field well, always have a chance to win. And a chance to win improves the overall attitudes and efforts of everyone. Too many games played with MiLB talented SP, who give up 2 runs in the first inning wear on a team. Hitting would improve also, it's always easier to hit when your ahead. Bottom line, nothing this team does, or trades for should use offense as a criteria. No player like Puig. Pitching and improving defense, especially up the middle.

I agree that pitching [near and future] is a real need.  Target one of the Dodgers top o' the line MiLB starters and when the Dodgers start offering the lessor of that group, add more MiLB starters/relievers to the basket.  

 

I'm intrigued with the possibility of adding Yasiel Puig.  Very good contract for only 2 more years.  You could get one of 2 Puig's:  the goofball he was last year or a pissed off Puig who's out to show LA was wrong.  With no real evidence [other than he in now 25 yrs. old] I place my bet on the latter.

 

One of De Leon or Alvarez

A couple/few young A, AA  pitching prospects

Bellinger [probably dreaming]

Puig

 

Add whatever needed to MN side to make it work.

Puig is the definition of a lottery ticket.

I'd absolutely take him back as long as it's a toss in and not a main piece.

There really is no risk on a 103 loss team.

 

On the first point above, that is absolutely wrong. Dozier had 2.4 WAR in 2015. Good. But it was easily his weakest season in the past three. No, the single biggest reason for the Twins' being in contention in 2015 was the emergence of Miguel Sano and his +.900 OPS that season, which was by far better than anything Dozier has done in his career.

 

On the second, no, you do not simply insert a shortstop who cannot make the throw to first and say it's a "very small problem." It's a vital, up-the-middle position that requires solid defense. Getting a good shortstop who can field well is exceedingly important if this team is going to start winning.

 

It is more important than 3B, RF and LF. And believe me, your four relief pitchers and four starting pitchers will have a MUCH easier time if their shortstop can field well.

 

This team has stunk for most of the past six years. And a HUGE reason they've stunk for most of the past six years is the garbage they have put forth at shortstop year in and year out. 

 

So no, shortstop isn't a "very minor problem" and tolerating bad fielding at that position is not in any way something the Twins should tolerate

 

Yes, Sano was a big factor, but ops doesn't take fielding into account and he played only 80 games.  Because fielding should be taken into account, his war is lower than Dozier's.  So you are absolutely wrong, Dozier was the single biggest factor in 2015. The fact that Dozier's 2015 was significantly lower in 2015 than in 2016, 2014 and 2013 only adds to his value as a player.

 

Replacing Polanco is a very minor problem when you consider the Twins other problems, and I think I framed it in that context by listing their bigger problems.  Would he be a problem for a good team?  Sure he would, but the Twins aren't a good team.  As far as defense is concerned, the ten shortstops in MLB that played the most innings averaged a dwar of 1.  Polanco was a -.52, so, theoretically, his fielding cost the Twins half of a game last year, but he's -1.5 below the top ten inning SS last year.  But his war is .6, and he was 22 years old, and his MiLB stats show a history of improvement.  So, no.  He's not a big problem, the problems that I listed are bigger problems.  

 

You mention 3b, rf, lf, and I'll throw in 1b.  You say they're not as important as SS.  The reason that statement is wrong is that there is an expected offense for each position on the field.  SS is not a position that great offense is expected, but 1B, 3B, LF, and RF are.  Keppler had a great month last year, but his MiLB stats don't come close to supporting those numbers.  Mauer should retire, we don't have a 3B, and LF is weaker than SS if you consider expected offense for that position.

 

Then consider pitching.  

 

So, no.  In the scheme of things,  SS is a minor problem for the Twins

Umm, yeah there is. There is the cost of his contract over the next few years, which although not astronomical, is at least the cost of a very good reliever.

His contract is not prohibitive at all. It's basically a wash with Dozier's- who would be leaving in this deal.

Yes, Sano was a big factor, but ops doesn't take fielding into account and he played only 80 games.  Because fielding should be taken into account, his war is lower than Dozier's.  So you are absolutely wrong, Dozier was the single biggest factor in 2015. The fact that Dozier's 2015 was significantly lower in 2015 than in 2016, 2014 and 2013 only adds to his value as a player.

 

Replacing Polanco is a very minor problem when you consider the Twins other problems, and I think I framed it in that context by listing their bigger problems.  Would he be a problem for a good team?  Sure he would, but the Twins aren't a good team.  As far as defense is concerned, the ten shortstops in MLB that played the most innings averaged a dwar of 1.  Polanco was a -.52, so, theoretically, his fielding cost the Twins half of a game last year, but he's -1.5 below the top ten inning SS last year.  But his war is .6, and he was 22 years old, and his MiLB stats show a history of improvement.  So, no.  He's not a big problem, the problems that I listed are bigger problems.  

 

You mention 3b, rf, lf, and I'll throw in 1b.  You say they're not as important as SS.  The reason that statement is wrong is that there is an expected offense for each position on the field.  SS is not a position that great offense is expected, but 1B, 3B, LF, and RF are.  Keppler had a great month last year, but his MiLB stats don't come close to supporting those numbers.  Mauer should retire, we don't have a 3B, and LF is weaker than SS if you consider expected offense for that position.

 

Then consider pitching.  

 

So, no.  In the scheme of things,  SS is a minor problem for the Twins

Teams "hide" poor gloves on the corners. But to do that you need the middle guys to take as many chances as possible away from them. Polanco doesn't do that, and Doziers range isn't elite either. Buxton fulfills that criteria in center, but we have become so complacent to substandard SS play that many were content with Nunez? Good grief. One can just not afford to underestimate the impact a quality middle IF brings to a team, especially one with a PTC history. This team butchered double plays last year in an alarming fashion. That alone needs to improve.

 

Teams "hide" poor gloves on the corners. But to do that you need the middle guys to take as many chances as possible away from them. Polanco doesn't do that, and Doziers range isn't elite either. Buxton fulfills that criteria in center, but we have become so complacent to substandard SS play that many were content with Nunez? Good grief. One can just not afford to underestimate the impact a quality middle IF brings to a team, especially one with a PTC history. This team butchered double plays last year in an alarming fashion. That alone needs to improve.

Sure they hide bad gloves in the corners, But why?  It wouldn't be hard to comb MiLB and pick up the absolute best fielding team in MLB.  Every single position, including every pitcher.  Why don't they do that?  Because they need hitting, and they also need pitchers that can get people out... so there are tradeoffs.  They generally get their hits from LF, RF, 1B, and 3B, but the Twins don't.  They get them from 2B.  I would trade a +1 oWAR SS that hits 240 with no power, for a -.5 oWar SS that hits 280 with some power every day.  I'm not saying that Polanco is a 280 hitter, but I think he has a real chance of hitting 280, and I also think his fielding will improve because there's evidence of that in his MiLB history.  Oh, and I'd take Nunez's last year with the Twins every year if I could get it, because he more than made up for any fielding (and .983 isn't bad at all) with his bat.

 

Range stats are one of the weakest stats that can be considered.  They're generally only a measure of putouts or assists per game.  They don't measure range at all, and range isn't something that you can judge by watching.  What's more, a guy with the greatest REAL range is likely to commit more errors because he's touching balls that other guys don't and he's likely throwing while moving at a greater speed, or while he's off balance.

 

So no.  It's not as simple as saying that every successful team has to have strong defense up the middle, any more than saying bunting is really important, or saying that switch-hitting is really important, or that steals are really important, or left-handed pitchers are really important.  All of those are bull  because they can be off-set by other things. 

I'm a little behind on this thread, but has anyone brought up Wolfson's mentioning the Phillies as having interest in Dozier?

Initially, I found this quite perplexing, but then I thought a little more. The Dodgers need a leadoff hitter, someone with good OBP and some speed, probably more than they need a slugger, particularly if they bring back Turner. Howie Kendrick (.255/.326/.366) and Chase Utley (.252/.319/.396) were their lead off hitters last year. Kendrick is now gone; Utley is a free agent.

Maybe the Phillies trade Cesar Hernandez (.294/.371/.393) to the Dodgers, opening up second base to trade for Dozier.

I would assume the Dodgers view Urias as untouchable, but it doesn't hurt to ask.  I am sure the Dodgers realize it will take a haul for Dozier so raise the bar high.  Then I wouldn't back down from my ideal return of DeLeon, Alverez, plus one of Buehler/Sheffield/Lux/Barnes.  Its not that I wouldn't like Bellinger or Puig, I would just rather have pitching.  In this case the Dodgers keep their best young pitcher and hitter, but the Twins get a haul in terms of pitching and maybe a wild card.