Dear Pohlads: Don't Do This

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Why do they have to build a bunch of strawmen? The Twins do not lose money every single year. NOBODY HAS SAID THEY DO.

The Twins have lost money since 2019 on a cumulative basis because of colossal losses in 2020, and a big loss in 2022 as the Twins expanded their payroll but revenues didn't follow. In 2023, had the Twins not made or advanced in the playoffs, it's likely they would have lost money. The Pohlads cut expenses, seemingly to about where they'd need to be to turn minimal profit if the the Twins missed the playoffs this year. They absolutely should expand their payroll in my opinion as they're in the playoff chase and they should expect revenue from that source.

If you add up the 49MM loss in 2020, the 10MM profit in 2021, the 27MM loss in 2022 and the 19MM profit in 2023 you get ($47MM) net in losses since 2019.

There is data behind the values. Most of it comes from Forbes, and they're a far more reputable source than the backside of angry fan commenters.


 

This chart doesn't make sense.  At the top is says player payroll and cash flow.  At the bottom is stats EoY salary and profit.  Cash flow and profit are two different things.

Again, as many people have pointed out paper losses don't equal actual losses.  In addition, if you throw out 2020, which is from covid and a complete outlier, the team has made $2 million since 2019.  What's their total profit since the taxpayer funded Target Field opened?

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

It could be, but a bunch of that is tax return manipulation. How much of that is just paper loss? They got a new stadium so certainly most if not all of that 46M is depreciation and amortization. 

Here this the link.   NASDAQ - Atlanta Braves

It looks like $70M in depreciation.  A paper loss is a loss that has not been realized.  Depreciation is an expense that recognized over a period of multiple years.  If a business buys an asset with a 5 -year life, they don't recognize $50,000 in expense when they pay for the asset.  They recognize $10K/year.  That certainly does not change the legitimacy of the expense.   

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

The Atlanta team uses the team/stadium area to build a massive redevelopment around it, and they are making plenty of money on that part of the business, while making it look like they are losing money on the team.....not every situation is the same.

I'll say it again, your company doesn't go from 44 million to 1.5 billion in value if you are losing money every year.....or at all overall. 

The valuation of baseball teams baffles me a bit.  The Yankees are valued at 7.55B.  The average return on equity in the US is 10% and billionaires are not the guys making an average return.   7.5B would be expected to return $750M.  Even if the Yankees make $150M/year that's 20% of expected return on capital.

This kind of earnings multiple is common with Tech stocks or BIO tech that are expected to increase revenue and earnings by 5 or 10X but the talk around here is that baseball is in trouble.  

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

 "Falvey and Levine have done a great job keeping us competitive with what they have to work with"

So did Ryan and Gardy, for as long as Falvine have been here, until the last 4 years when the bottom fell out.  We moved on to the new age, and have done.............well, about the same as before.  I'm sorry if this sound critical, because it is not meant to, but you have far more faith in this FO and field management than I, or a lot of others, do.  I have watched the team since the '65 world series, and I see the eras come and go.  We haven't been to the world series in, what, 33 years?  We have won one playoff series in what seems like a lifetime, and when we are in that window we stand pat?  As long as we have the mindset that we are a mid size market organization, we are going to be a middle of the pack organization; winning just often enough to keep an amount of interest needed to survive.  Most fans want more than that out of their teams, or why stay tuned?   

I am not going to pretend to tell the team who to trade for, or who to trade out; a lot of factors we don't see go into that beyond payroll.  But I do believe that if we look to the future too long, it passes us by, as it has done for longer than I care to remember.  Don't sacrifice the future sounds smart, and it usually is, but sometimes the window closes before the future arrives.  The window is open, but right now all I hear is crickets.........I sure would like to hear something else.  🙄

The playoffs is ultimately catching lightning in a bottle,  different strategies have worked,  2 elite pitchers,  ok pitching good hitting,  great bullpen ect.  Looking at this team,  you have right now would could be a very good bullpen,  2-3 solid to above average starting pitchers with SWR more than holding his own, and what could be a very good lineup with a lot of depth.  Besides a lefty reliever, there is not an obvious hole.  Ultimately you want as many shots to get to the playoffs,  and hope things begin to break your way.  I like the Braves approach of finding some cheap replacements without going all in from a couple years ago.  Ultimately I want us to continue to have internal options to provide the depth we need.  Trade values seem to be much better in the offseason.  Which means if they were to trade Duran,  it would likely be a trade heavily in the Twins favor, so ultimately I would not be too upset with it.  

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Lol

Just admit you're wrong for a change. 

15.2 fWAR since 2019 does not equal "4-5 WAR infielder."

He's at 0.6 in 2024, for example.

.700-ish OPS guy.

Not Brian Dozier either, BTW

 

 

He has produced 2.9-5.4 WAR when healthy accept last year when he had 2.4 WAR.  That's a pretty good player but he has not played at all in 2024 according to BB Reference and Fangraphs.  Am I missing something?

1. Teams that cried "poor" after suffering a TV broadcast business mishap are getting up to a $15M subsidy from the MLB luxury tax pool to help balance the roster payroll hit. Will the Twins buy a player with their windfall, or stick it into their pockets?

2. Who are the marketing geniuses and clothing designers? I'd rather see investment into another good starting pitcher rather than several bizarre versions of uniforms that compel me to wear a welding helmet.

3. Jim should legally change his last name to "Griffith".

Happy Monday 😊 

Twins and Guardians. Standing pat. 

36 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The playoffs is ultimately catching lightning in a bottle,  different strategies have worked,  2 elite pitchers,  ok pitching good hitting,  great bullpen ect.  Looking at this team,  you have right now would could be a very good bullpen,  2-3 solid to above average starting pitchers with SWR more than holding his own, and what could be a very good lineup with a lot of depth.  Besides a lefty reliever, there is not an obvious hole.  Ultimately you want as many shots to get to the playoffs,  and hope things begin to break your way.  I like the Braves approach of finding some cheap replacements without going all in from a couple years ago.  Ultimately I want us to continue to have internal options to provide the depth we need.  Trade values seem to be much better in the offseason.  Which means if they were to trade Duran,  it would likely be a trade heavily in the Twins favor, so ultimately I would not be too upset with it.  

Hmmmm.........the Twins have been to the playoffs 10 times since the turn of the century, and we have caught lightning in a bottle.........once?  And that being a 2/3 playoff series last year.  

Maybe it is just me, I get that, but I would like to do better than that.  If "going all in" means trying harder to go further in October..........I thought it over, and I want to go all in.  I get the impression Joe doesn't agree with me, so I guess I am over ruled, but it is still worth dreaming about.  

And if trading Duran would be heavily in the Twins favor, why not do it tomorrow?  Ah, just kidding...........sort of......😉

Calvin Griffith bought the team in 1984 for something like $36 million dollars. According to Forbes this past March, the team is now worth $1.46 BILLION. Never mind that Jim inherited the team from his dad. I don't ever, EVER, want to hear from the Pohlad's on how they are losing money on the Twins.    EVER. 

None of us need the team to be north of $200 mil payroll, but my lord I'd love to see what the current front office could do with a payroll of even $175 mil given what they've been able to cobble together at these lower amounts. We could be AMAZING in this town man...

5 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Hmmmm.........the Twins have been to the playoffs 10 times since the turn of the century, and we have caught lightning in a bottle.........once?  And that being a 2/3 playoff series last year.  

Maybe it is just me, I get that, but I would like to do better than that.  If "going all in" means trying harder to go further in October..........I thought it over, and I want to go all in.  I get the impression Joe doesn't agree with me, so I guess I am over ruled, but it is still worth dreaming about.  

And if trading Duran would be heavily in the Twins favor, why not do it tomorrow?  Ah, just kidding...........sort of......😉

So would you rather have 1 option to win the WS in 5-6 yeas at maybe 20% probabilities,  or 5-6  with 6-8% for each year.  Going for it in 1 year, where you have to do massive overpays for minimal improvement is not a wise scenario.  Now you can go the Braves route,  where you get players that are struggling but have some pedigree and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.  If trading Duran is heavily in their favor they will, but that means you need to find someone willing to massively overpay.  Then the question is do they pivot and use resources to get another reliever and possibly another SP. Its all hypothetical at this point other than we know they are willing to listen to offers on Kepler and Duran.  

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So would you rather have 1 option to win the WS in 5-6 yeas at maybe 20% probabilities,  or 5-6  with 6-8% for each year.  Going for it in 1 year, where you have to do massive overpays for minimal improvement is not a wise scenario.  Now you can go the Braves route,  where you get players that are struggling but have some pedigree and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.  If trading Duran is heavily in their favor they will, but that means you need to find someone willing to massively overpay.  Then the question is do they pivot and use resources to get another reliever and possibly another SP. Its all hypothetical at this point other than we know they are willing to listen to offers on Kepler and Duran.  

What Chpettit said.  🤭