As MLB Touts Attendance Surge, Twins Are Left Out of the Fun

roger · September 25, 2024

I am so tired of seeing everyone bashing the team/owners for cutting payroll. Actually, Cody, your article wasn't all that bad.

You see I believe they did not, let me repeat, did not cut payroll. Like most businesses they likely have an annual budget and other projections going out three to five years. In those projections they would have assumed $x payroll. What I believe happened is Falvey sat down with ownership the winter before 2023 spring training and said "I am shocked but we can actually sign Correa to a relatively good contract, but it is gonna put us $20-$30M over budget." Ownership obviously said, ok, because they did it. Management also likely knew they were going to have to right size the payroll come 2024. But they had a year to do that.

So I believe that payroll for this year is right where they had projected. Yes, that was substantially less than last year but that was because they approved a one-time increase to sign Correa. And rather than bashing ownership, we should have been raving about the increase they provided to sign Carlos.

I expect none of you will either agree with me or even consider this may actually be the case. Like you, I don't have a clue if this is what happened. But looking at everything they have done it is certainly possible.

September 25, 2024

The tide that needs to lift the team is the Twin Cities and its surrounding area. Falling team interest isn't a recent development. Game attendance has been trending negative for a decade or more. Team payrolls steadily have increased over that period. Traffic is down and costs up. That's not a healthy trend for any business, and the Pohlads would be negligent or dumb to ignore these facts when considering the team's budget. Think about all the businesses that have closed downtown in the past four years. Yet every armchair "expert" and vapid media outlet blame the Pohlads, who bear free-market risks in a socialist, anti-capitalist community. No one should blame them for taking a conservative, let's-pause attitude about the team's future.

TV revenue contracts aren't based on hope. The hard fact is that fan interest in all forms is down and unless it materializes quickly the team's future game and media revenue will not increase at the rate the rest of the league is experiencing. And consequently the team's budget will not increase materially.

Near-term, the Twins have a multitude of good young players they control. They should be able to compete for the next couple of years without major player acquisitions. However, the long-term scenarios look to be either a glorified farm team like the Marlins or an outright sale of the team. Carl tried to sell the team to Charlotte interests before, and you can be sure his sons haven't forgotten that option remains.

The current team situation can be laid at the feet of the fans and the Twin Cities community. We have the team we deserve.

NYCTK · September 25, 2024

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, I get the rest of the Game is up in attendance and not matching that is unfortunate. The reasons for the apathy has been outlined many ways here.

Bottom line though is they match last year’s attendance if they draw 27,000 over last 6 games. They average 24,000 fans/game. It’s supposed to be 82F & sunny Friday-Sunday. WIN ONE GAME tonight and “they will come”.

Even if the Team only averages 20,000 per game they’ll end up just 35,000 light in ticket sales v. ‘23. My assumption (live in Cincinnati) is tickets cost a bit more this year than last year? My point is Revenues can’t be very far off expectations in a budget done by the Club! It’s not some huge cloud over the organization.

At approximately $75 per head, if we think the bozos budgeted an increase in attendance since they went to the playoffs last year, as would be normally expected with a competent organization, I think the Twins are probably about $20 million short in game day revenue from what they likely expected.

Looks like we'll have to trade Pablo.

NYCTK · September 25, 2024

9 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Game attendance has been trending negative for a decade or more.

Outside of the fantastic season opening the stadium, the Twins largely haven't provided a product worth consuming. They followed up that season with 6 years of pretty lousy baseball, and in general to be honest averaging a 77 win squad after 2010. And that's including the 101 win fluke, which people showed up to watch!

Scolding folks for not lapping up slop isn't a great way to grow your brand.

bean5302 · September 25, 2024

6 minutes ago, roger said:

I am so tired of seeing everyone bashing the team/owners for cutting payroll. Actually, Cody, your article wasn't all that bad.

You see I believe they did not, let me repeat, did not cut payroll. Like most businesses they likely have an annual budget and other projections going out three to five years. In those projections they would have assumed $x payroll. What I believe happened is Falvey sat down with ownership the winter before 2023 spring training and said "I am shocked but we can actually sign Correa to a relatively good contract, but it is gonna put us $20-$30M over budget." Ownership obviously said, ok, because they did it. Management also likely knew they were going to have to right size the payroll come 2024. But they had a year to do that.

So I believe that payroll for this year is right where they had projected. Yes, that was substantially less than last year but that was because they approved a one-time increase to sign Correa. And rather than bashing ownership, we should have been raving about the increase they provided to sign Carlos.

I expect none of you will either agree with me or even consider this may actually be the case. Like you, I don't have a clue if this is what happened. But looking at everything they have done it is certainly possible.

The Twins lost money in 2022.
The Twins made money in 2023, but likely only due to the playoffs.

I had no problems with ownership adjusting their payroll for opening day to avoid a possible loss if the regular season went poorly and the team didn't make the playoffs as I felt $130MM was "adequate." By the way, the Twins project annually, every year. I do feel like they built in a little "cushion" there they didn't really need, but whatever. The problem most people had with the "adjusted" payroll was virtually every single team in all of baseball would have kept (actually expanded) the budget to continue capitalizing on the growth in excitement and interest the first playoff win in 20 years created. The Pohalds decided to "adjust" it instead.

What really burned me, and almost everybody else, is the trade deadline. After ownership clearly failed the fans with the TV debacle, the team was highly likely to make the playoffs again, attendance was similar, and attending was more expensive. There was every reason to substantially expand the payroll at the deadline, but the wallets remained slammed shut.

NYCTK · September 25, 2024

11 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Yet every armchair "expert" and vapid media outlet blame the Pohlads, who bear free-market risks in a socialist, anti-capitalist community.

Well, you're kind of right. We, the community, gave the billionaires about $350 million for their new little home. But in true capitalist fashion, only the Pohlad family gets to see the benefits of that donation out of our pockets.

Eat The Rich.

mikelink45 · September 25, 2024

I'm fascinated that no one said the customer is always right. I think that was always a Maxim for good business.

ashbury · September 25, 2024

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I'm fascinated that no one said the customer is always right. I think that was always a Maxim for good business.

The customer wants flying cars for zero dollars. I learned early in the marketing phase of my career to treat customers with respect but not to take them too seriously, and keep decisions grounded in actual reality rather than what customers will tell you. You go by actions, not words, where customers are concerned.

roger · September 25, 2024

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins lost money in 2022.
The Twins made money in 2023, but likely only due to the playoffs.

I had no problems with ownership adjusting their payroll for opening day to avoid a possible loss if the regular season went poorly and the team didn't make the playoffs as I felt $130MM was "adequate." By the way, the Twins project annually, every year. I do feel like they built in a little "cushion" there they didn't really need, but whatever. The problem most people had with the "adjusted" payroll was virtually every single team in all of baseball would have kept (actually expanded) the budget to continue capitalizing on the growth in excitement and interest the first playoff win in 20 years created. The Pohalds decided to "adjust" it instead.

What really burned me, and almost everybody else, is the trade deadline. After ownership clearly failed the fans with the TV debacle, the team was highly likely to make the playoffs again, attendance was similar, and attending was more expensive. There was every reason to substantially expand the payroll at the deadline, but the wallets remained slammed shut.

Can agree with most of what you said, Bean.

Truth is we don't know if the Twins made or lost money in either of those years as none of us has access to their financial statements. Or do you? The only year we can likely know for sure is that they lost a lot of money in 2020, considering the expenses they continued paying while much of baseball made huge cuts.

Will join you in being disappointed in what they didn't do at the trade deadline. I was in the camp that was hoping they would make a bigger trade for a youngish starting pitcher even though few of their moves the last few years have panned out well. But with the way their hitters went in the tank the last six weeks, there isn't much they could have done that would have made a big difference.

JD-TWINS · September 25, 2024

25 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

At approximately $75 per head, if we think the bozos budgeted an increase in attendance since they went to the playoffs last year, as would be normally expected with a competent organization, I think the Twins are probably about $20 million short in game day revenue from what they likely expected.

Looks like we'll have to trade Pablo.

Not sure where your numbers come from?

To me, worst case they are under 35,000 from ‘23. ……..most likely, with the weather expected and fan giveaways this weekend they match last year. If they budgeted 2% up tick (had to adjust any aggressiveness with TV so uncertain over winter) that’s about another 38,000 above last year. 73,000,000 x your $75 revenue per body is maximum of $5.5M

NYCTK · September 25, 2024

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not sure where your numbers come from?

To me, worst case they are under 35,000 from ‘23. ……..most likely, with the weather expected and fan giveaways this weekend they match last year. If they budgeted 2% up tick (had to adjust any aggressiveness with TV so uncertain over winter) that’s about another 38,000 above last year. 73,000,000 x your $75 revenue per body is maximum of $5.5M

Obviously speculative, but I could absolutely see the Twins projecting a boost of attendance thanks to the playoffs. Not to the level of the 2019 Twins, but maybe to 27,000 per game. That sort of boost is common around the league. That'd be a $17.5 mil shortage.

Obviously, there are expenses tied to increased attendance, but this shows you how actually building a winning culture is hugely and providing a product worth consuming is hugely profitable. I kind of love the San Diego Padres now.

Imagine we had 35K average gate? $60 mil!

JD-TWINS · September 25, 2024

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Obviously speculative, but I could absolutely see the Twins projecting a boost of attendance thanks to the playoffs. Not to the level of the 2019 Twins, but maybe to 27,000 per game. That sort of boost is common around the league. That'd be a $17.5 mil shortage.

Obviously, there are expenses tied to increased attendance, but this shows you how actually building a winning culture is hugely and providing a product worth consuming is hugely profitable. I kind of love the San Diego Padres now.

Imagine we had 35K average gate? $60 mil!

I hear ya - comparing Minneapolis draw potential to San Diego though is a stretch just considering weather differences.

NYCTK · September 25, 2024

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I hear ya - comparing Minneapolis draw potential to San Diego though is a stretch just considering weather differences.

Come on man. We both know that's not the reason. If we were looking only at attendance in April, you may have an argument there.

It's culture. I put it on paper before, but the Padres shifted their culture on a dime, and fans responded. Now, I do grant that, because of San Diego's loss of the Chargers, it does offer a more unique situation to much more swiftly capture the attention of, and build upon, their market. But I see no reason the Twins couldn't do the same thing eventually.

Downtown San Diego is much nicer than Downtown Minneapolis, but the population that lives within walking distance (2.5 km) is not hugely different - 72K to 62K. Granted, Minneapolis is not walkable. (Thanks terrible urban developers.) But Downtown Minneapolis employs a lot more people than San Diego.

Idk, this is just me researching on the fly.

TheLeviathan · September 25, 2024

I don't buy the argument of blaming fans. Are Minnesotans sometimes hesitant to pour into the ballpark and support the team, even when they are losing? Sure. That can impact revenue and I can understand slight cutbacks to a payroll. Or ebbs and flows.

But let's be clear, the Pohlads have never been in any danger of not cutting a profit. And when that has been a danger (perhaps this year) it was almost entirely due to their own malfeasance on their broadcasting deal. When they wanted to contract they were profiting just fine. They wanted more profit and a stadium to make it in.

Fan loyalty, and the dollars they bring with them, are earned. If fans are choosing not to bring those dollars to your ballpark. Or your website. Or your broadcast (if it exists at all). Then the question you ought to be asking is "where did we lose their trust?"

Linus · September 25, 2024

2 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't buy the argument of blaming fans. Are Minnesotans sometimes hesitant to pour into the ballpark and support the team, even when they are losing? Sure. That can impact revenue and I can understand slight cutbacks to a payroll. Or ebbs and flows.

But let's be clear, the Pohlads have never been in any danger of not cutting a profit. And when that has been a danger (perhaps this year) it was almost entirely due to their own malfeasance on their broadcasting deal. When they wanted to contract they were profiting just fine. They wanted more profit and a stadium to make it in.

Fan loyalty, and the dollars they bring with them, are earned. If fans are choosing not to bring those dollars to your ballpark. Or your website. Or your broadcast (if it exists at all). Then the question you ought to be asking is "where did we lose their trust?"

This. I was in the financial services business for 40 years. The customer has the final vote as to whether they want to do business with you or a competitor. The Twins don’t have a direct baseball competitor but they sure do for their fans discretionary dollars. When it comes to your business reputation perception is reality. The Twins might not like, agree or understand that but the reputation of the Twins isn’t great.

Devereaux · September 25, 2024

I have the 20-game flex plan, and I go to 25-30 Twins games every season. I also take a trip each year to see the Twins on the road.

This year I was in San Diego when the Twins visited. The teams had the same records, but the Padres drew 40,000 for each of the two heartbreaking losses I attended. I can say I prefer the Target Field experience over almost any other: the park is nice, the concessions are good and varied, the audio-visual show is cool. Honestly, downtown San Diego was interesting but not more fun than downtown Minneapolis. It's homelessness and drug problems are more obvious than here.

Still, the ballpark vibe could not have been more different. There was an electric buzz at Petco that I almost never feel at Target Field, and have never felt at a Monday or Tuesday evening game at home.

I'm starting to come down on ashbury's side. Do the people who stay at home and blame everything except their inertia truly care about the team? You can buy a $20 ticket and bring in food if you can't afford more. Are the locals just not fans of top-tier baseball?

Mike Sixel · September 25, 2024

57 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't buy the argument of blaming fans. Are Minnesotans sometimes hesitant to pour into the ballpark and support the team, even when they are losing? Sure. That can impact revenue and I can understand slight cutbacks to a payroll. Or ebbs and flows.

But let's be clear, the Pohlads have never been in any danger of not cutting a profit. And when that has been a danger (perhaps this year) it was almost entirely due to their own malfeasance on their broadcasting deal. When they wanted to contract they were profiting just fine. They wanted more profit and a stadium to make it in.

Fan loyalty, and the dollars they bring with them, are earned. If fans are choosing not to bring those dollars to your ballpark. Or your website. Or your broadcast (if it exists at all). Then the question you ought to be asking is "where did we lose their trust?"

For most of their time running this team, fans supported them when they likely shouldn't have (because, fans do that). This team has mostly been horrible. People seem to forget just how bad the last decade was before this FO......from 2011 to 2016, they had ONE YEAR where they won more than 70 games.....ONE.

Mike Sixel · September 25, 2024

It's also just possible that MN isn't really a baseball area at all....and the only way they draw fans is by winning and excitement, something mostly lacking in teh last 20 years.

NYCTK · September 25, 2024

5 minutes ago, Devereaux said:

I'm starting to come down on ashbury's side. Do the people who stay at home and blame everything except their inertia truly care about the team? You can buy a $20 ticket and bring in food if you can't afford more. Are the locals just not fans of top-tier baseball?

Besides Opening Year (39K) and the Bomba Squad which year were fans supposed to come out and heartily support the team?

They're wrapping up their 15th year in Target Field, and 7 of those have they scored as many runs they've given up.

2010 - Fans showed up

2017 - mediocre team that was below 500 2/3 through the season

2019 - if I'm not mistaken, they were basically selling out every weekend game by June

2020 - feel like something happened this year. it'll probably come to me

2022 - lol collapse

2023 -

2024 - lol collapse

So, after 8 years of entirely mediocre baseball, fans showed up in 2019, and then after the pandemic, the Twins become entirely mediocre agin. 2023 they were pretty decent and the only year in which I would say fan turnout lagged behind on-field performance.

But that's why you need to build a culture of winning, something the "right-sizing" Twins have no ability to do. I don't blame a single person for being completely disinterested in the team, and I wouldn't encourage anyone searching for a team to support to choose the Twins.

KirbyDome89 · September 25, 2024

3 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

The tide that needs to lift the team is the Twin Cities and its surrounding area. Falling team interest isn't a recent development. Game attendance has been trending negative for a decade or more. Team payrolls steadily have increased over that period. Traffic is down and costs up. That's not a healthy trend for any business, and the Pohlads would be negligent or dumb to ignore these facts when considering the team's budget. Think about all the businesses that have closed downtown in the past four years. Yet every armchair "expert" and vapid media outlet blame the Pohlads, who bear free-market risks in a socialist, anti-capitalist community. No one should blame them for taking a conservative, let's-pause attitude about the team's future.

TV revenue contracts aren't based on hope. The hard fact is that fan interest in all forms is down and unless it materializes quickly the team's future game and media revenue will not increase at the rate the rest of the league is experiencing. And consequently the team's budget will not increase materially.

Near-term, the Twins have a multitude of good young players they control. They should be able to compete for the next couple of years without major player acquisitions. However, the long-term scenarios look to be either a glorified farm team like the Marlins or an outright sale of the team. Carl tried to sell the team to Charlotte interests before, and you can be sure his sons haven't forgotten that option remains.

The current team situation can be laid at the feet of the fans and the Twin Cities community. We have the team we deserve.

Relative to the league it hasn't.

Help me understand how crawling back into bed with Bally and subsequently blacking out essentially all local television coverage is the fault of fans?

If a restaurant in your neighborhood operated under a poor service model, provided a mediocre at best experience along with mediocre food/drinks, and showed no interest in attempting to meet the needs/wants of local diners, would you hold yourself personally accountable when the establishment inevitably tanked?

Original_JB · September 25, 2024

I go for the experience "of watching the game" at the ballpark. I don't care for any of the music/malarkey they have going on. Re: Attendance; don't forget that they closed off the upper deck (less expensive seats) for what, the 1st two months of the season? I also see why they are having the "Pack the Park" $9 ticket promo through the end of the season. Note I said "ticket" not seat because there are no seats with those tickets, but you rack up attendance numbers at the turnstile just the same.

TwinsChupacabra · September 25, 2024

No mention of the worst manager they had in team history? Sure, the owner and management deserve a ton of blame but to not mention Rocco at all as a factor? Cleveland, KC, Detroit all exceeded expectations. We didn't. Rocco was too busy putting Margo in as pinch hitter.

September 25, 2024

4 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Outside of the fantastic season opening the stadium, the Twins largely haven't provided a product worth consuming. They followed up that season with 6 years of pretty lousy baseball, and in general to be honest averaging a 77 win squad after 2010. And that's including the 101 win fluke, which people showed up to watch!

Scolding folks for not lapping up slop isn't a great way to grow your brand.

One word: Milwaukee.

September 25, 2024

1 hour ago, Linus said:

This. I was in the financial services business for 40 years. The customer has the final vote as to whether they want to do business with you or a competitor. The Twins don’t have a direct baseball competitor but they sure do for their fans discretionary dollars. When it comes to your business reputation perception is reality. The Twins might not like, agree or understand that but the reputation of the Twins isn’t great.

Neither is the reputation of Twins fans. Again, one word: Milwaukee.

September 25, 2024

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't buy the argument of blaming fans. Are Minnesotans sometimes hesitant to pour into the ballpark and support the team, even when they are losing? Sure. That can impact revenue and I can understand slight cutbacks to a payroll. Or ebbs and flows.

But let's be clear, the Pohlads have never been in any danger of not cutting a profit. And when that has been a danger (perhaps this year) it was almost entirely due to their own malfeasance on their broadcasting deal. When they wanted to contract they were profiting just fine. They wanted more profit and a stadium to make it in.

Fan loyalty, and the dollars they bring with them, are earned. If fans are choosing not to bring those dollars to your ballpark. Or your website. Or your broadcast (if it exists at all). Then the question you ought to be asking is "where did we lose their trust?"

https://www.baseball-reference.com//teams/MIL/attend.shtml

September 25, 2024

41 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's also just possible that MN isn't really a baseball area at all....and the only way they draw fans is by winning and excitement, something mostly lacking in teh last 20 years.

And what's the problem in Milwaukee then?

KirbyDome89 · September 25, 2024

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

I've lived in other places that were better "baseball towns" than the Twin Cities. If they wouldn't fill the ballpark when they had a winning team to watch, IMO the region has the team they deserve, one that is again* at risk of circling the drain in a never ending downward spiral of payroll cuts and declining revenues, always in tacit support of ownership's principle that a certain percentage of revenue is entitled as profit.

Dave St. Peter was beyond stupid to say it out loud, blaming the fans last year. But he wasn't wrong.

* remember "contraction"?

It's no doubt a feedback loop, but one side has much more sway in ending said loop. Interest won't organically tick upwards, fans won't start wandering back into TF just because. If you're failing (and the Twins are) to meet goals, the most logical direction to look would be inward. Why are the Brewers, in a smaller metro, with competing local professional clubs, and a smaller payroll, able to significantly outdraw the Twins? Are Wisconsinites just better "fans?"

NYCTK · September 25, 2024

13 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

One word: Milwaukee.

That's a great question as to why Milwaukee has been so successful. It's a worst market and a decent but not great winning club. But so many fans. Would love to learn more.

jorgenswest · September 25, 2024

The boost they needed from last year’s playoff run happens during the ticket sales during that run. It starts with selling playoff tickets to fans connected to purchasing packages for next season. The Twins didn’t get that boost or we would have seen it reflected in this year’s ticket sales. The front office reacted to the disappointing future sales by cutting the budget.

There has also been some bad luck. They had a great regular season in 2019 and then couldn’t sell tickets for 2020. They had another first place season in 2020 to an empty stadium. They finally have success that wasn’t impacted by COVID-19 and even win a playoff series in 2023. You would have expected fans to be buying 2024 season packages during that playoff run. It didn’t happen.

Some things are self inflicted. The TV rights has been a disaster. Cutting the budget to pre-Correa levels reduced their ability to field a contender. They didn’t generate revenue during last year’s winning season very well with average cost for a family of 4 ranking 29th. Only the Marlins generated less revenue from a family of 4 in 2023.

We can look for where to place the blame but it is part the reality of choosing to be a follower of a small to mid market team.

theBOMisthebomb · September 25, 2024

16 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

That's a great question as to why Milwaukee has been so successful. It's a worst market and a decent but not great winning club. But so many fans. Would love to learn more.

I've thought of posting these thoughts twice earlier and deleted...

I've been to nine MLB stadiums the past four years and Target Field ranks somewhere between 7th and 9th as far as fan engagement and passion. They might be ahead of 2022 Angels fans and 2023 Royals fans. Might.

Heck, Tigers fans at the 2024 trade deadline when they were in sell mode crushed the passion of Twins fans. It is painful to acknowledge.

Maybe Twins and Angels fans are so disinterested because they know in their heart of hearts their club has zero chance at a championship. The 2023 postseason success for the Twins was supposed to erase those 30 year old feelings, it seems that chance slipped away unless they win these last 5 games and sneak into the playoffs.

Twins fans (and Minnesota sports fans of men's major professional teams) are front runner bandwagon fans. It is difficult to admit, yet reality.

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