40-Man Roster Decisions: The Pitchers

Even with Tommy Milone being outrighted and electing free agency, the Twins have six arbitration-eligible players, including four pitchers. There are other articles on this topic for debate and there will be more in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. (Coming soon!).

• Kyle Gibson
  
• Brandon Kintzler
  
• Ryan Pressly
  
• Hector Santiago
  

Just one player currently on the 40-man roster will automatically become a free agent after the World Series. That player is catcher Kurt Suzuki.

There are three players who are currently on the 60-day disabled list: Phil Hughes, Glen Perkins and Danny Santana. These players will need to be added back to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft. So the Twins officially have 35 players on their 40-man roster, but with those three added back, there really are 38 spots accounted for.

So I want to look at the current 38 players on the 40-man roster. How many of them are "givens" to remain on the roster? Any of the arbitration-eligibles? Who are the guys on the proverbial roster bubble? For this, we are going to assume no trades for now. It is, of course, possible that the Twins make a trade or two before the Winter Meetings which may affect this as well.

THE GIVENS

1. Jose Berrios - Despite his struggles, he is a given to remain on the roster. He is a very important fixture in the Twins future.
   
2. JT Chargois - He struggled early in his MLB career. However, he figured things out in September and the hope is that he will be a reliable man at the back-end of the Twins bullpen.
   
3. Tyler Duffey - Again, tough season for the right-hander after he ended 2015 as the Twins best starter. Long-term, can he be a starter, or should he be in the bullpen? That will play itself out, but it’s clear he’s got enough stuff - in the two pitches he has - to at least be a solid reliever.
   
4. Phil Hughes - He’s got the contract. He’s coming off an injury. He is going to remain on the roster.
   
5. Pat Light - The numbers in the big leagues have been really non-good. Despite Trackman verifying that he was hitting 100 in Rochester, we didn’t see that in the big leagues. He was hit hard and struggled with secondary pitches. There’s a reason he was available in a trade for Fernando Abad. But there’s still upside here.
   
6. Trevor May - Starter or bullpen? To be determined, but he’s a given to remain on the roster. Has really good stuff. Can be a dominant reliever, or a mid-rotation starter. We’ll see which.
   
7. Adalberto Mejia - Acquired in July for Eduardo Nunez, Mejia was in Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at mid-season. The left-hander made one appearance with the Twins in August before being shut down. He has a chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter.
   
8. Mason Melotakis - He is essentially one year behind JT Chargois in terms of recovery and return from Tommy John surgery. He got through his first year back, and should be used and developed in 2017 similarly to Chargois was in 2016. Too talented.
   
9. Glen Perkins - He’s untradeable due to recovery from shoulder injury. He has a contract. If healthy, he can be a terrific reliever in the late innings for the Twins, even if he’s 90% of what he was during his three straight All-Star seasons.
   
10. Taylor Rogers - He was an easy choice to add to the 40-man roster last year at the time, and he proved the Twins correct by having a very nice rookie season in 2016. It was his first work out of the bullpen, so there’s a good chance he could continue to improve in the role going forward.
    
11. Ervin Santana - He was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2016, and it was an easy choice. Could he be traded this offseason? Sure.
    

There are eleven pitchers who are "givens" to be on the Twins 40-man roster. In addition, of the arbitration-eligible pitchers, it is my opinion that Kyle Gibson, Ryan Pressly and Brandon Kintzler are givens to be offered arbitration. I’d probably put Hector Santiago as more of a 50/50 selection.

Here are the pitchers remaining on the 40-man roster who remain question marks for the roster at this point. Remember, room still needs to be made on the roster for players who need to be added to the 40-man roster or potentially lost to the Rule 5 draft. Of the below names, the front office will need to determine if they prefer to keep the current guy or go with a potential Rule 5 selection. There are a lot of difficult decisions.

ON THE BUBBLE

1. Buddy Boshers - A nice story in 2016, he pitched well in AAA and - with the exception of just a couple of appearances - in the big leagues. Left-handed. His improved breaking pitches have to be evaluated to determine if he’s worth a roster spot.
   
2. Ryan O’Rourke - See Boshers, Buddy. O’Rourke made a concerted effort to improve his numbers against right-handed hitters to make himself more valuable on a roster. However, he was removed from the 40-man roster early in the season, but he did well in AAA and earned his way back on the roster.
   
3. Randy Rosario - Another left-hander. He has a chance to start, which is what he did the first three-plus months of the season in Ft. Myers. He moved to the bullpen, and that’s where he is pitching in the Arizona Fall League. 2016 was his first full season back from Tommy John. He’s got terrific stuff and potential, but lack of strikeouts make him a question mark.
   
4. Yorman Landa - In the Florida State League All-Star game, he threw several pitches over 100 mph, and that’s what he can do. However, he didn’t pitch after mid-July because of a shoulder injury, an injury he has missed significant time with before.
   
5. Michael Tonkin - Simply put, his AAA dominance has not translated to the big leagues in his four years of opportunities. There are certainly times that he showed his upside, but for the most part he really struggled.
   
6. Alex Wimmers - Former first-round pick who earned an opportunity to pitch in the big leagues the final six weeks of the season. Aside from two consecutive appearances in which he walked a combined six batters, he was very good. But what will the new regime think?
   

POTENTIAL 40-MAN ROSTER ADDS

Real quickly, here is an incomplete list of pitchers who would need to be added to the Twins 40-man roster or risk being lost in the Rule 5 draft (with my thoughts on likelihood of them being added):

• Fernando Romero - GIVEN
  
• Felix Jorge - HIGHLY LIKELY
  
• DJ Baxendale - BUBBLE
  
• Lewis Thorpe - BUBBLE
  
• Jason Wheeler - BUBBLE
  
• Zack Jones - BUBBLE
  
• Ryan Eades - UNLIKELY
  
• Williams Ramirez - UNLIKELY
  

So there you have it, a crib sheet review of the pitchers on the Minnesota Twins current 40 (or 38?)-man roster. As I see it, there are 11 easy choices to keep on the roster. There are four pitchers who are arbitration-eligible. In my opinion, three of them are givens. There are six pitchers that I believe are on the 40-man roster bubble. And there are several pitchers who need to be considered for addition to the 40-man roster.

Tomorrow, I'll do the same thing with the 16 hitters currently on the Twins 40-man roster. For now, discuss your thoughts on the above as well as what you would do. Or, if you prefer, if you were asked to provide Derek Falvey with your roster recommendations, what would you present?