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Deadline day is upon us! The Guardians unfroze Noah Syndergaard from carbonite in time for him to inherit the standard portion of organizational good fortune prior to pitching against Houston. Despite this, Cleveland’s bullpen wilted against an offensive storm from the Astros, and the Twins entered deadline day with a slender half-game lead in the AL Central.
Despite a five-game losing streak, other Central teams have or will trade away from their MLB rosters. The Twins have the fifth-easiest finish in baseball. The Guardians? Fifth hardest. It’s time to put up, and shut everyone up.
The Twins have to buy in a measured way. Despite clanking almost every hurdle in their lane this season, they have a clear path to a division title. If you’ve been put off from the ill-fated 2022 deadline, good news, it shouldn’t be that hard to plug the gaps. Here are names I’d be prioritizing on deadline day. For the purposes of this exercise, I made the assumption that the Twins focus mostly on rentals.
Acquire OF Adam Duvall from the Red Sox or OF Tommy Pham from the Mets
The Twins need a right-handed bat. The Groundhog Day water cooler conversations around the bottleneck of left-handed outfielders must come to a close at some point, right? I think it’s likely Gallo is DFA’d in the near future as he’s essentially been a non-contributor for months, but the Twins remain horrendously inept against left-handed pitching.
The Red Sox are still in contention for a wild card berth, but it’s possible they hedge and facilitate a soft sell at the deadline. Duvall checks most boxes you might want to see. He can play center field (passably). He’s a rental. He bats right-handed. So what’s the production like? A 128 wRC+ so far in 2023 carrying the best SLG (.542), and wOBA (.364) since he was in Atlanta in 2019. He’s not a lefty masher, but he fits the roster need well.
Pham is another bat who fits the bill. Right-handed, rental, with some ancillary skills (like excellent baserunning) that the Twins don’t usually do well. Pham has a 1.7 fWAR and 127 wRC+ thus far in 2023. Crucially, he has a .871 OPS against left-handed pitching. There are plenty of other options here, including Teoscar Hernandez. The Twins have to come away with a right-handed hitting upgrade today.
Acquire RHP Carlos Hernandez from the Royals or RHP Kyle Finnegan from the Nationals
The injuries to Caleb Thielbar and Brock Stewart, combined with some severe regression of the erstwhile outstanding rotation, have left the Twins bullpen on thin ice, overworked and overleveraged. Even with Thielbar returning and Stewart soon to start a rehab assignment, a deep bullpen is critical in September as starts shorten.
The price on Hernandez is probably too high, but I have to admit I’m intrigued. The Royals flamethrower isn’t a free agent until 2028. So why would the Royals sell? Well, they’re terrible, and they don’t have a single Top 100 prospect on Baseball America’s mid-season re-ranking. In 53 innings of relief thus far in 2023, Hernandez has a 30 K%, 7.1 BB%, 3.31 xERA, and he throws 100 mph. He’ll cost a ton, but I’m thinking about it.
If Hernandez is the upper echelon of what you want to meaningfully bolster the bullpen, Kyle Finnegan is probably the bare minimum. A free agent in 2026, Finnegan has pitched in 44 innings in 2023. 23.5 K%, 7.8 BB%, and a 3.07 ERA (4.37 xERA) probably slots him somewhere at the bottom of the Thielbar and Stewart tier. The velocity is good (97 mph average fastball), though it’s possible the Twins look to true rental options such as Jose Cisnero or Keynan Middleton.
Acquire LHP Brooks Raley from the Mets or LHP Brent Suter from the Rockies
A few weeks ago, I convinced myself that this wasn’t a great need for the Twins. If Caleb Thielbar (activated for the Cardinals series), returns to good health and form, the need is certainly lessened. Having watched Jovani Moran walk just south of 5.0 BB/9 over 90 MLB innings, he just doesn’t feel like someone you can comfortably use in a playoff game. The Twins need to add a left-handed arm to the bullpen.
Raley is a solid option from the Mets. This season, he’s posted a 26.2 K% and 11 BB% in 28 innings of work. That’s underpinned by a solid 3.31 xERA. That’s all capped off by an affordable 2024 club option which raises the appeal, and the price.
Suter is a true rental after signing a one-year, $3 million deal with the Rockies for 2023. He’s put together a great season so far although he has even less velocity than Raley and he doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts. In 48 1/3 innings, Suter has a 20.2 K% (not great), a 7.6 BB% (great), and a 2.59 xERA. I love Jovani Moran, and I believe in his stuff, but if you can’t throw strikes, you can’t be relied upon to pitch in the playoffs.
On average through the last two seasons, there have been just south of 30 trades on deadline day (on average), so I expect today to be busy. It’s likely the Twins do something creative. Maybe they sell high on a pitcher, maybe they make another challenge trade. What’s evident, after more than half a season, is they have the talent to win the AL Central comfortably. They should maximize their chances with measured aggression on deadline day.
Who do you want the Twins to target today? Join the discussion in the comments below.
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