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As the Twins have stumbled out of the All-Star break, it grows increasingly likely that they will be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline.
After last year's fire sale that shook up the roster, the Twins once again have several names that could be on the way out over the next week and a half. It isn't the position anyone in the organization hoped to be in; selling would be another sign that 2026 hasn't gone according to plan. However, there are long-term benefits that come with moving veterans and arbitration-eligible players. One of those benefits is how much money the Twins could potentially save from this year's payroll.
Ryan Jeffers, Joe Ryan and Trevor Larnach are all names generating plenty of attention on the trade market. Each would bring back a player (or multiple) that could fit into the Twins’ long-term plans, but there's another layer to the discussion that shouldn't be overlooked.
The offense would almost certainly take a step back in the short term without Jeffers and Larnach in the lineup. Ryan, meanwhile, has been the anchor of the rotation, and all three have spent their entire major league careers with the Twins. They drafted Larnach in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft and used their second-rounder on Jeffers. Ryan was acquired from the Rays in July of 2021 as the headliner in the Nelson Cruz trade and has developed into one of the American League’s best pitchers. Moving on from three guys who have been around for that long is a tough thing to do as an organization. But not only would the hypothetical returns for those players help shape the organization's future; they would also clear millions of dollars from the payroll.
All three are playing on one-year contracts. Ryan and Larnach each have a year of team control left in 2027, and Jeffers will hit the open market this winter. Despite the season being roughly two-thirds complete, there's little reason to continue paying those salaries if the organization no longer views this year's club as a legitimate contender. If those players don't fit into the long-term plans, there is value in moving them now rather than waiting.
Looking at their contracts, Jeffers is making the most of the three at $6.7 million this season. Assuming roughly two-thirds of that salary has already been paid by the deadline, the Twins would save approximately $2.23 million by trading him. Ryan and Larnach would add even more savings. Between those two players, the Twins would clear roughly another $3.5 million from this year's payroll. Now you're talking about just under $6 million saved immediately, and that's before even considering how much will be avoided by not having to pay their next contract.
The savings don't stop there, either. Veterans Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers are both playing on one-year deals and could very well be on the move if contenders come calling. Bell signed a one-year, $7 million contract. After accounting for his $250,000 signing bonus, he'll earn $6.75 million throughout the season. Rogers is making $2 million this year. Combined, that's just under $9 million in salary. With approximately one-third of the season remaining, moving both players would save the Twins nearly another $3 million from this year's payroll.
And what if someone like Bailey Ober got moved? Like Ryan and Larnach, he has one more year of arbitration eligibility and could draw interest from a team looking to strengthen the back end of its rotation. Trading Ober would save approximately $1.73 million this season, and as much as I’m sure we’ll all miss his electric 88 MPH fastball, it’s tough to imagine he fits in the Twins’ future rotation plans.
Put all of those moves together, and the Twins could (potentially) save around $10.5 million from this year's payroll by moving players who don't appear to fit into the organization's long-term plans. And that's before mentioning what might be the biggest benefit of all: adding another wave of young talent through trade returns. That's what this is really about. The Twins aren't simply trying to cut costs; they're trying to position themselves for the future. If the front office believes this core isn't capable of competing for a championship in 2026, maximizing the value of those assets becomes the logical next step.
Looking ahead to 2027, there are even bigger financial questions looming. Nobody knows exactly what that season will look like—or whether there will even be a season—with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement set to become one of baseball's biggest storylines over the next year. The biggest component of that has centered around implementing a salary cap and a salary floor.
In the league's initial proposal, the salary floor would be set at $171.2 million. The Twins are currently one of 12 teams below that figure, and they're going to need far more than $10.5 million in savings to navigate whatever comes next. Minnesota's current payroll sits at roughly $106 million, leaving a massive gap between where it is today and where a potential salary floor could eventually be established. That's why, regardless of whether the Twins believed they were contenders this season, significant roster decisions were likely coming at some point anyway.
Shipping out key pieces at the trade deadline is never enjoyable. That's especially true for Twins fans, who just watched last summer's fire sale reshape much of the roster. But baseball is a business as much as it's a game. If moving players who no longer fit the organization's long-term timeline allows the Twins to save money, acquire future talent and better position themselves for whatever comes next, it's a difficult decision that may ultimately make the most sense. And once again, that's the situation the Twins find themselves in.
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