Will this team be the worst of the last four years?

[tobi0040]

A systematic contract year boost has been proven to be mostly fiction, right? Plus, how did Correia do in his previous two "contract years"?

 

 

 

Your projections: +109 IP, -1.00 ERA, +7.4 fWAR

Royals SP, 2012 to 2013: +97 IP, -1.14 ERA, +4 fWAR

 

The 2013 Royals SP turnaround was one of the most dramatic in recent memory, featuring the addition of TWO near-peak performances by two of the most durable SP in the game today (Shields and Santana), PLUS a full season from Guthrie, and also a great half-season renaissance from Bruce Chen too.

 

You expect the 2014 Twins to basically match that IP/ERA improvement, and double the fWAR improvement? And that's not a rosy, best case forecast?

 

.

 

I think the year over year improvements look drastic on paper. But consider we are replacing Walters, Devries, etc. with Nolasco, Hughes, and Alex Meyer and that we started from a place of a historically bad rotation. The projection for next year may not even be league average.

 

Here are my two cents:

 

Nolasco Jokin has 4.00, which is 30 basis points worse than last year, 37 basis points better than his career average.

 

Pelfrey Jokin has 4.19, which is 29 basis points better than his career

 

Hughes, Jokin has 4.33, which is actually worse than his 4.24 career ERA if you take out his innings in the new yankee stadium.

 

KC, Jokin has his 4.25 ERA from last year. That is 24 basis points better than his career.

 

Meyer, Jokin has him at 4.20, which I think is high given his sub 3.00 ERA in the minors with a ton of K's.

 

These maybe 10-20 basis points optimistic on three of the guys, not optimistic enough about Hughes and Meyer. Ultimately, if the top four guys match their career averages we have a 4.40 ERA or so. If we get 900 IP out of these guys we allow 85 fewer runs. If it is 4.60 we allow 65 fewer runs. If they average out to a 4.80 ERA, which is a collective 40 points higher than their career averages, we allow 45 fewer runs.

 

The context of the conversation should move from will the rotation be better to how much the rotation will be better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not true! There is 4 in 9 odds that the injury would affect one of our current number 9 hitters, in which case the quantity of number 9 hitters stays constant with his replacement.

 

It's one of the benefits of having so many number 9 hitters in your lineup!

 

You're being sarcastic but there's a smidgeon of truth in this statement... With an offense this bad, there simply isn't much room to go down.

 

It will take a key injury to Mauer, Dozier, or Arcia to make a significant impact on this offense comparative to last season.

 

The rest of the guys were so bad that it simply doesn't matter. The Twins will pull another .600 OPS bat off the scrapheap and keep on truckin'.

[70charger]

Hey, I just thought of a swell strategy to make the team invulnerable to the injury bug!

 

Free Drew Butera!!

[Guest USAFChief]

I think the year over year improvements look drastic on paper. But consider we are replacing Walters, Devries, etc. with Nolasco, Hughes, and Alex Meyer and that we started from a place of a historically bad rotation. The projection for next year may not even be league average.Here are my two cents:Nolasco Jokin has 4.00, which is 30 basis points worse than last year, 37 basis points better than his career average. Pelfrey Jokin has 4.19, which is 29 basis points better than his careerHughes, Jokin has 4.33, which is actually worse than his 4.24 career ERA if you take out his innings in the new yankee stadium.KC, Jokin has his 4.25 ERA from last year. That is 24 basis points better than his career.Meyer, Jokin has him at 4.20, which I think is high given his sub 3.00 ERA in the minors with a ton of K's.These maybe 10-20 basis points optimistic on three of the guys, not optimistic enough about Hughes and Meyer. Ultimately, if the top four guys match their career averages we have a 4.40 ERA or so. If we get 900 IP out of these guys we allow 85 fewer runs. If it is 4.60 we allow 65 fewer runs. If they average out to a 4.80 ERA, which is a collective 40 points higher than their career averages, we allow 45 fewer runs.The context of the conversation should move from will the rotation be better to how much the rotation will be better.

Am I reading this wrong...or are you planning on 900 innings from the top 4 starters?If so, that's not very realistic.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the year over year improvements look drastic on paper. But consider we are replacing Walters, Devries, etc. with Nolasco, Hughes, and Alex Meyer and that we started from a place of a historically bad rotation. The projection for next year may not even be league average.

 

Here are my two cents:

 

Nolasco Jokin has 4.00, which is 30 basis points worse than last year, 37 basis points better than his career average.

 

Pelfrey Jokin has 4.19, which is 29 basis points better than his career

 

Hughes, Jokin has 4.33, which is actually worse than his 4.24 career ERA if you take out his innings in the new yankee stadium.

 

KC, Jokin has his 4.25 ERA from last year. That is 24 basis points better than his career.

 

Meyer, Jokin has him at 4.20, which I think is high given his sub 3.00 ERA in the minors with a ton of K's.

 

These maybe 10-20 basis points optimistic on three of the guys, not optimistic enough about Hughes and Meyer. Ultimately, if the top four guys match their career averages we have a 4.40 ERA or so. If we get 900 IP out of these guys we allow 85 fewer runs. If it is 4.60 we allow 65 fewer runs. If they average out to a 4.80 ERA, which is a collective 40 points higher than their career averages, we allow 45 fewer runs.

 

The context of the conversation should move from will the rotation be better to how much the rotation will be better.

 

As Chief pointed out, 900 innings is really optimistic but the point is a good one.

 

This rotation, barring complete disaster, will be better than the 2013 version. It's almost inevitable.

 

And chances are it's much better than the 2013 version without being anything better than league average.

[ashbury]

Am I reading this wrong...or are you planning on 900 innings from the top 4 starters?If so, that's not very realistic.

 

32 starts, 7 innings per... easy peasy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And chances are it's much better than the 2013 version without being anything better than league average.

 

At least by ERA, league average last year was 4.15. It's actually better than jokin's too-rosy estimate. That would require dramatic 2013 Royals style improvement. Median ERA was 3.99, an even more difficult achievement.

 

When it all shakes down, Baltimore's 2013 staff isn't a bad target. No standout aces or special durability guys among the group, just a decent collection of pitchers, a few injuries, 4.57 SP ERA (albeit in a hitter's park?) was 12th in the league, 58 more IP and 40 fewer R than Twins SP.

 

Of course, the reason Baltimore was a contender was their offense ranking #4 in runs scored (and #1 in HR). Still, such a staff gives us potential to be more of a run-of-the-mill bad team, rather than a truly awful squad. Baby steps!

[tobi0040]

As Chief pointed out, 900 innings is really optimistic but the point is a good one.

 

This rotation, barring complete disaster, will be better than the 2013 version. It's almost inevitable.

 

And chances are it's much better than the 2013 version without being anything better than league average.

 

I meant 900 for the top 5. Gibson and Meyer splitting the 5th spot. 180 inning average. 4.40-4.80 seems doable for those two. I think Meyer's innings will be much better than that.

[jokin]

As Chief pointed out, 900 innings is really optimistic but the point is a good one.

 

This rotation, barring complete disaster, will be better than the 2013 version. It's almost inevitable.

 

And chances are it's much better than the 2013 version without being anything better than league average.

 

Right. And I simply tried to construct an "in-the-ballpark", grounded scenario for the Twins SPs, just to try to get close to 2013 AL SP league average ERA, which was 4.15. And I put Gibson and Meyer in the mix with low ball, conservative projections of what they might be capable of doing. So now you're 7 deep with guys that no one should be surprised if any one of them went out and had career year numbers unfamiliar in these parts, short of Scott Diamond's 3.54 season in 2012- if you lose, say, 2 guys to injury or ineffectiveness, you very well could have at least 2 guys who might be pitching above expectations in the Scott Diamond, mid-3s in ERA. And barring that, you have 2 guys in reserve who very well might pick up all of the slack and more from the guys who go down.

 

I just think it's far more realistic to be optimistic than pessimistic about the Rotation- especially when you compare this year's opening day SPs to last year's- and why this point alone negates any notion that this could possibly be the worst Twins team in 4 years.

[jokin]

I am thinking 900 for the top 5. Gibson and Meyer splitting the 5th spot. 180 inning average. 4.40-4.80 seems doable for those two. I think Meyer's innings will be much better than that.

 

I'm more optimistic on Meyer than the numbers I posted. I purposely low-balled my estimate, directly using the ZIPS projection for Alex. My purpose was to demonstrate that the Rotation had been upgraded to the point that no one should be surprised if it was able to accomplish near league average numbers, with room to be a little better, and with more upgrading to do in 2015 (I really liked that the Twins went after Garza and Sanatana, it gives me hope that the Twins recognize that their work in this area is not yet done).

 

And 900+ innings is very realistic for this group, plus the spot starters, and obviously, that does wonders for bullpen effectiveness.

[TheLeviathan]

You're looking for 10ish WAR from the bullpen? That seems largish.

 

Yeah, I wasn't clear on that. Depending on where you look, the Twins got somewhere between 3-5 wins from luck last year that I think can be safely attributed to the outstanding bullpen.

 

If that luck swings the other way - say rather than being +4 they are -4, you have an 8 game swing. So not a WAR thing as much as a swing of luck.

[Mike Sixel]

Zips projects the Twins to be tied for the 3rd worst SP in the majors this year......what do we mean by "league average"?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

[LaBombo]

Regarding the thread topic, I can selectively cite stats from the last 3 years along with non-statistic justifications that suggest this Twins team is in Wild Card contention, and possibly better if Nathan succumbs to injury and the Tigers stumble further.

Stumble further ? They improved by 5 wins in 2013, so is that like falling up the stairs? Or do you mean some of the lesser projections for their 2014 based on offseason moves.

[alskntwnsfn]

I nominate this for the Absurd Statement tournament. There is almost no way this team will end up being the worst of the past 3 years. It would take a several key injuries and KC, CLE, and CHW would have to have a lot of young guys step forward.

[jokin]

At least by ERA, league average last year was 4.15. It's actually better than jokin's too-rosy estimate. That would require dramatic 2013 Royals style improvement. Median ERA was 3.99, an even more difficult achievement.

 

When it all shakes down, Baltimore's 2013 staff isn't a bad target. No standout aces or special durability guys among the group, just a decent collection of pitchers, a few injuries, 4.57 SP ERA (albeit in a hitter's park?) was 12th in the league, 58 more IP and 40 fewer R than Twins SP.

 

Of course, the reason Baltimore was a contender was their offense ranking #4 in runs scored (and #1 in HR). Still, such a staff gives us potential to be more of a run-of-the-mill bad team, rather than a truly awful squad. Baby steps!

 

And that's the point of this whole exercise. The "worst team in the last 4 years" notion just doesn't fit the facts on the ground. The undue pessimism just seems way off base with pitching being such a more important component to success than offense.

 

Moreover, if Meyer can emerge this year as a legit #2 SP candidate going into 2015, and Gibson fully capable at the back-end, with Nolasco and Hughes continuing somewhere in the middle, now you're only looking at the need in acquiring one top-end arm at around Garza-level in FA next offseason to radically change this staff's ranking to near the top third in the AL by next year.

[jokin]

Zips projects the Twins to be tied for the 3rd worst SP in the majors this year......what do we mean by "league average"?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

 

FWIW, ZIPS is pretty well-established as the "Debbie Downer" of the projection services.

[Mike Sixel]

FWIW, ZIPS is pretty well-established as the "Debbie Downer" of the projection services.

 

Just for the Twins? Are they only down on the Twins, or everyone? Do other systems predict them to be anywhere near the median?

[tobi0040]

Zips projects the Twins to be tied for the 3rd worst SP in the majors this year......what do we mean by "league average"?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

 

I will take the under on a few of these from ZIPS:

 

Vance Worley 4.93 ERA, 46 IP. For some reason I don't think he will get that many innings with the Twins this year.

 

Phil Hughes, they basically have his career ERA in there (4.50). He has a 4.24 ERA out of the new Yankee stadium.

 

Not a huge KC fan, but I will go under 5.11. That is 60 basis points above his career.

 

Gibson 5.04. I will go under that.

 

Meyer is not even on the list and I expect 80-100 IP out of him in the 3's or very low 4's.

 

BTW, can someone explain to me how WAR can differ so drastically from ERA? My understanding is that wins and losses were determined by runs scored versus runs allowed. Detroit has an ERA of 3.72 with 18.8 WAR. Rays have a 3.70 ERA with 12.3 WAR.

[jokin]

A systematic contract year boost has been proven to be mostly fiction, right? Plus, how did Correia do in his previous two "contract years"?

 

 

In 2010, Kevin Correia posted his career-high xFIP right around 4.00 and his 2nd best-ever K/9 rate with the Padres, and was victimized by a near-career-low strand rate and higher BABIP. In 2012, with the Bucs, KC had his best ERA and ERA+ since 2009 with a career-best GB%. (I think that's what Terry Ryan was talking about when he said "better than his numbers indicate:p).

[diehardtwinsfan]

FWIW, I'd note that I wouldn't expect to see Meyer pitching in Minnesota this season (except September). He is not on the 40 man roster and will only get placed on it if several guys "in front" of him fail (Johnson, Darnell, etc).

 

That said, I'll echo what Jokin and others are saying. I have a tough time believing this team will be worse (baring a nastly bite from the injury bug) than the last 3 seasons. I get that there are unknowns, but there's a lot better depth to deal with them this season. I don't see the offense being great, but again I have a tough time believing that there won't be guys who improve.. and for various reasons. I think a win total in the 70s is very realistic, and a few breaks could see that creep up to the .500 mark. Not expecting .500, but I think it's a far more realistic bet this year than last.

[jokin]

I will take the under on a few of these from ZIPS:

 

Vance Worley 4.93 ERA, 46 IP. For some reason I don't think he will get that many innings with the Twins this year.

 

Phil Hughes, they basically have his career ERA in there (4.50). He has a 4.24 ERA out of the new Yankee stadium.

 

Not a huge KC fan, but I will go under 5.11. That is 60 basis points above his career.

 

Gibson 5.04. I will go under that.

 

Meyer is not even on the list and I expect 80-100 IP out of him in the 3's or very low 4's.

 

BTW, can someone explain to me how WAR can differ so drastically from ERA? My understanding is that wins and losses were determined by runs scored versus runs allowed. Detroit has an ERA of 3.72 with 18.8 WAR. Rays have a 3.70 ERA with 12.3 WAR.

 

Well-stated. For whatever mathematical set of forumulae that is claimed to be used in ZIPS, it still comes across as pretty lazy work, generally biased towards expectation of the worst possible outcomes.

 

In a separate ZIPS rating of rookies, Meyer is projected to have the numbers I used in my scenario, 110 Innings @ 4.20 ERA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

BTW, can someone explain to me how WAR can differ so drastically from ERA? My understanding is that wins and losses were determined by runs scored versus runs allowed. Detroit has an ERA of 3.72 with 18.8 WAR. Rays have a 3.70 ERA with 12.3 WAR.

 

Without digging into it, I'd assume that has to do with defense, ie. the Rays are good at it (and therefore less credit goes to the pitching staff) and the Tigers are not-so-good at it (more credit goes to the pitching staff).

 

And then there are ballpark adjustment considerations.

[jokin]

FWIW, I'd note that I wouldn't expect to see Meyer pitching in Minnesota this season (except September). He is not on the 40 man roster and will only get placed on it if several guys "in front" of him fail (Johnson, Darnell, etc).

 

That said, I'll echo what Jokin and others are saying. I have a tough time believing this team will be worse (baring a nastly bite from the injury bug) than the last 3 seasons. I get that there are unknowns, but there's a lot better depth to deal with them this season. I don't see the offense being great, but again I have a tough time believing that there won't be guys who improve.. and for various reasons. I think a win total in the 70s is very realistic, and a few breaks could see that creep up to the .500 mark. Not expecting .500, but I think it's a far more realistic bet this year than last.

 

Roster spots open for sure when Willingham and Correia are traded. While I can envision the "consistency" argument, ala Gibson, being used to keep Meyer down, justifiably through the arb date, Gardy has already publicly mentioned that he can envision Meyer in a relief role if a starting spot hasn't opened up yet. But yes, guys like Johnson and Diamond (if he's still here) would be the first call-ups before the arb date if there is an injury. The main thing is, I hope the Twins have learned from the recent past, and don't waste most of his innings in AAA if he's performing like he did in 2013 in AA and the AFL. And pitching in September seems pretty problematic if indeed he's on an innings limitation, which is why I see him getting called up much sooner rather than later.

[LaBombo]

BTW, can someone explain to me how WAR can differ so drastically from ERA? My understanding is that wins and losses were determined by runs scored versus runs allowed. Detroit has an ERA of 3.72 with 18.8 WAR. Rays have a 3.70 ERA with 12.3 WAR.

One partial explanation is that it seems WAR values, for example, two starters who each throw 65 innings at a given level less than it values a single starter who pitches 130 (Drew Smyly) at the same level. My guess is Smyly gets credit simply for using up only one roster spot.

 

In other words, and this an extreme example but maybe still valid, would you rather manage a rotation of five 200 inning starters or ten 100 inning starters of the same average ERA? My guess is that WAR probably favors the former as well and it shows in the projections.

 

It any case it appears that WAR doesn't credit many pitchers who throw fewer than 100 innings with more than a few tenths of a point above replacement unless those innings are in mostly high-leverage situations. The projections sees the Rays getting well over 200 rotation innings from 6 pitchers fitting that description. The Tigers are projected to use only 3 of them and rely on them for fewer than half as many innings.

 

Another possibility is that WAR thinks the Tigers higher K rate and the (I would guess) Rays superior defense and more pitcher-friendly park means that the Tigers staff will achieve that ERA with less help from their defense and home park and is therefore more valuable.

[jokin]

Just for the Twins? Are they only down on the Twins, or everyone? Do other systems predict them to be anywhere near the median?

 

I've only looked at individual players, and in most instances when the projections are laid side-by-side, ZIPS is the outlier to the downside, sometimes really out there. (Remember the low-ball Mauer projection by ZIPS, even though they knew he would be at First Base? The Phil Hughes out-of-Yankee Stadium situation also stands out as a pretty glaring omission of taking proper account of the facts on the table.)

[Guest USAFChief]

If you're asking about Fangraphs WAR, I believe they use what they think should have happened (FIP) rather than what did happen (ERA) for pitchers.

[jokin]

At least by ERA, league average last year was 4.15. It's actually better than jokin's too-rosy estimate.

 

That would require dramatic 2013 Royals style improvement.

 

When it all shakes down, Baltimore's 2013 staff isn't a bad target. No standout aces or special durability guys among the group, just a decent collection of pitchers, a few injuries, 4.57 SP ERA (albeit in a hitter's park?) was 12th in the league, 58 more IP and 40 fewer R than Twins SP.

 

Of course, the reason Baltimore was a contender was their offense ranking #4 in runs scored (and #1 in HR). Still, such a staff gives us potential to be more of a run-of-the-mill bad team, rather than a truly awful squad. Baby steps!

 

By your own admission, the Royals got career years from a couple of their guys. My estimate doesn't take that into account- is there a 2012 Scott Diamond year in one or two of our guys this year? (And why didn't we sign Bruce Chen when we had the chance to do so? )

[Mike Sixel]

So Zips is negative for all the teams....meaning they could/are in the right order.....or are you trying argue that Zips has a bias agains the Twins. To me, the absolutes aren't the key....they key is, are they league median, or close to the worst. That's the question. I can't see how they can be projected to be league median. If they are, it proves money can buy wins, btw.

[Mike Sixel]

Do people expect other teams to be worse, even though they gradutated guys from the minors, traded for players, and signed free agents? Or, could some of those teams also have gotten better in the off season? Are the Twins so far behind, does it matter if they are better, or does it matter if they are A LOT better?

[LaBombo]

Do people expect other teams to be worse, even though they gradutated guys from the minors, traded for players, and signed free agents? Or, could some of those teams also have gotten better in the off season? Are the Twins so far behind, does it matter if they are better, or does it matter if they are A LOT better?

Any amount of improvement matters if it comes from players who will still be contributing when the team returns to contention.

 

If it comes from bouncebacks by Willi, Kubel, and the like, it will be almost completely meaningless to me unless it leads to a flip for a prospect of some stripe. Should sell more tickets though. But how will they spend the revenue? Oops. Threadjack.