2014 MLB Draft Thread

[pierre75275]

What about Nola? is it Aaron Nola? From the same school Ryan Eades is from...any chance the twins take him at 5 or is it better to hope he falls to the second rd?

[gunnarthor]

What about Nola? is it Aaron Nola? From the same school Ryan Eades is from...any chance the twins take him at 5 or is it better to hope he falls to the second rd?

 

He's not considered a top 5 talent but he'll probably go in the top 15. Barring something strange - an injury - he won't be there in the 2nd round.

[cmb0252]

Keith Law chat today:

Rick Hahn has stated the White Sox are targeting a college pitcher with their #3 pick in the draft. Who offers more upside Hoffman or Beede?

Klaw (1:04 PM)

Hoffman. More velocity, great athlete, underdeveloped as a pitcher right now. Beede's the safer pick of the two, but I would bet that if they have both guys staring them in the face (and Rodon too) they'd take Hoffman.

 

What's the absolute farthest you can see Rodon falling to in June?

Klaw (1:10 PM)

Seems like the Cubs at 4 would be a stopping point for him - a large-market team with no historical aversion to taking, shall we say, players with his likely bonus demands. After that, it gets dicey.

 

Think the jays have a shot at Nick Gordon when their first pick comes around?

Klaw (1:14 PM)

Yes, I think he goes in that range.

 

I know a prep righty has never been selected first overall, but should the Astros seriously consider taking Kolek with their first pick? It seems like his stock is rising.

Klaw (1:20 PM)

History of prep RHP that high in the draft isn't favorable and his secondary stuff isn't that advanced. I prefer Aiken, considering all factors

 

Will the cubs be able to draft a ace and would they consider drafting a position player. Thanks

Klaw (1:21 PM)

I don't think there's any bat worthy of the 4th overall pick this year. It's all arms up top.

 

Any chance Kolek falls to 5?

Klaw (1:21 PM)

Don't see it.

 

Do you remember another prospect who had as much helium as Jacob Gatewood did last year fall so far so fast?

Klaw (1:28 PM)

Happens quite a bit with prep kids. Harold Martinez was one - looked like a sure top 10 pick as a junior, ended up falling so far he went to college. Phillies took him in the 2nd round three years later and he's been terrible, .257/.322/.348 all in A-ball so far.

 

Bradley Zimmer: middle-of-the-order potential?

Klaw (1:46 PM)

Seems like it. Has the size and athleticism, pretty good approach, not sure he stays in CF with that kind of body though.

 

Do your recent viewings of Rodon change his ceiling, or just lower the floor?

Klaw (2:06 PM)

That's a damn good question. I'm not really sure if it's both or not. I feel less confident about him becoming an ace, certainly.

 

If you're the Twins, do you want the 5th best pitcher in this draft of the best position player when you pick at #5?

Klaw (2:07 PM)

What if the 5th best pitcher is still better than the best position player? However, I had one exec point out that if we look back on this draft in ten years, the odds that the five best players will all turn out to have been pitchers are incredibly slim. So maybe the bat is there and we just haven't identified him yet?

 

Who is the better HS prep arm - Kohl Stewart or Kolek?

Klaw (2:10 PM)

Kolek has size and velocity. Stewart had athleticism and a better slider. I'd lean Kolek but it's not a huge gap.

 

Does Aaron Nola have #2 starter upside?

Klaw (2:10 PM)

I don't think so. High-probability but more 4th starter. A #2 starter, someone who's top 30-40 in his league, should have some kind of a swing-and-miss pitch, and Nola doesn't.

 

[cmb0252]

What about Nola? is it Aaron Nola? From the same school Ryan Eades is from...any chance the twins take him at 5 or is it better to hope he falls to the second rd?

 

Keith Law answered a question about Nola today in his chat:

Does Aaron Nola have #2 starter upside?

Klaw (2:10 PM)

I don't think so. High-probability but more 4th starter. A #2 starter, someone who's top 30-40 in his league, should have some kind of a swing-and-miss pitch, and Nola doesn't.

[nicksaviking]

All of those guys have been up and down. Also Rodon's velo is 89-92 this spring which isn't unusual for him to start throwing slower, but its not exactly encouraging either. Beede's been wild at times which as I understand it was the major question mark on him all along. I actually like Hoffman the best of those 3 right now. Regardless, did you see Toussaint's numbers? He is dominating.

 

It just seems strange to me that he would start the year at 8, and pretty much everyone above him would struggle and he'd dominate, and the standings don't really change. In fact I saw one mock with him falling all the way to 18 for some reason. I just don't get it.

 

His size isn't going to change and that does seem to be an issue with some clubs. He's not small, but fair or not 6'2" 185 isn't what most clubs ideally look for in a top 5 pitcher is my guess.

 

Also, while control has come into play with Rodon, Beede and Hoffman this spring, do we know that it isn't still a concern for Toussaint? His numbers are going to look the same with great control or spotty control, he's in a different class than the guys he's facing.

[Willihammer]

His size isn't going to change and that does seem to be an issue with some clubs. He's not small, but fair or not 6'2" 185 isn't what most clubs ideally look for in a top 5 pitcher is my guess.

 

Also, while control has come into play with Rodon, Beede and Hoffman this spring, do we know that it isn't still a concern for Toussaint? His numbers are going to look the same with great control or spotty control, he's in a different class than the guys he's facing.

 

Who's more coachable, a wild 17 year old or a wild 21 year old?

 

*Caveat - the 17 year old is playing his 5th year of organized baseball. The 21 year olds are playing their... I dunno, 12th.

[cmb0252]

Notes on Beede, Hoffman, Aiken, and more:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/04/the-rundown-april-4/

 

Article on Burdi:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/4/5/5581404/2014-mlb-draft-profile-nick-burdi-rhp-louisville

 

Bleacher Report New Mock Draft:

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2017070-2014-mlb-mock-draft-full-first-round-projections-2-months-from-draft-day

[cmb0252]

Luis Ortiz scouting report:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/4/7/5581322/2014-mlb-draft-profile-luis-ortiz-fresno-ca-high-school

[Mike Sixel]

New stuff on ESPN today, also. Rodon continues to struggle.....

[cmb0252]

New stuff on ESPN today, also. Rodon continues to struggle.....

 

Here is a link to the article:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1499

 

While Turner and Rodon have struggled a lot of the HS arms have shined. There have also been some good reports about Alex Jackson. Rodon, Hoffman, Beede, Aiken, Holmes, Kolek, and Jackson seem to be in the top tier together.

[tobi0040]

Here is a link to the article:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1499

 

While Turner and Rodon have struggled a lot of the HS arms have shined. There have also been some good reports about Alex Jackson. Rodon, Hoffman, Beede, Aiken, Holmes, Kolek, and Jackson seem to be in the top tier together.

 

Barring injury concerns, I highly doubt Rodon slips to #5. The folks at ESPN want people to follow. Just look at the NFL. Guys go from top pick to out of the top 10 for no reason at all.

[gunnarthor]

Barring injury concerns, I highly doubt Rodon slips to #5. The folks at ESPN want people to follow. Just look at the NFL. Guys go from top pick to out of the top 10 for no reason at all.

 

He probably doesn't slip (and he probably gets his stuff back together) BUT, right now, if the Astros don't take him, he could slip. No HS RHP has ever been taken #1 and Kolek probably won't be the first but if the Astros take Aiken it could line up pretty well. Miami has already been linked to Kolek and the Cubs are supposed to be in love with Beede. White Sox tend to draft college arms and have scouted Hoffman a lot. So if the top four is Aiken, Kolek, Hoffman, Beede Twins could get Rodon. Right now, I think the Twins end up with Hoffman (and are very happy with that) or Jackson.

[cmb0252]

He probably doesn't slip (and he probably gets his stuff back together) BUT, right now, if the Astros don't take him, he could slip. No HS RHP has ever been taken #1 and Kolek probably won't be the first but if the Astros take Aiken it could line up pretty well. Miami has already been linked to Kolek and the Cubs are supposed to be in love with Beede. White Sox tend to draft college arms and have scouted Hoffman a lot. So if the top four is Aiken, Kolek, Hoffman, Beede Twins could get Rodon. Right now, I think the Twins end up with Hoffman (and are very happy with that) or Jackson.

 

As of today this is pretty much how I feel. Hoffman and Jackson seem to be the most likely bets. Getting the best bat out of a draft isn't a bad thing.

[clutterheart]

I would like the Twins to be leaning toward position players. - Especially if the first 4 pics are dominated by pitchers.

 

Twins could have virtually their choice of a position player, and if there is an impact bat, he needs to be taken.

[kab21]

I know that almost everyone is fixated on the pitching in this draft but Alex Jackson is sounding like a beast.

[cmb0252]

I know that almost everyone is fixated on the pitching in this draft but Alex Jackson is sounding like a beast.

 

From Conor Dorney on Jackson:

"Jackson continues to terrorize prep pitching in Southern California and is now up to a healthy .424/.587/.939 line for the season."

Definitely has the potential to be a stud.

[cmb0252]

Articles from Jim Callis on A.J. Reed, Grant Holmes, and Brandon Finnegan:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140408&content_id=71334280&notebook_id=71334470&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

[CwK]

I know that almost everyone is fixated on the pitching in this draft but Alex Jackson is sounding like a beast.

 

At the risk of being flayed, I'll say it: I want Jackson. Take all pitchers after him, if they want.

[tobi0040]

He probably doesn't slip (and he probably gets his stuff back together) BUT, right now, if the Astros don't take him, he could slip. No HS RHP has ever been taken #1 and Kolek probably won't be the first but if the Astros take Aiken it could line up pretty well. Miami has already been linked to Kolek and the Cubs are supposed to be in love with Beede. White Sox tend to draft college arms and have scouted Hoffman a lot. So if the top four is Aiken, Kolek, Hoffman, Beede Twins could get Rodon. Right now, I think the Twins end up with Hoffman (and are very happy with that) or Jackson.

 

Assuming no wide gap exists in talent, I would be very happy if we took a power arm. You can't have enough of them.

 

I think the Twins should trade prospects for Didi and take an arm here.

[Willihammer]

Rancho Bernardo High (San Diego) fell from No. 3 to No. 23 after suffering two losses in three games, moving the Broncos’ record to 10-2. Catcher Alex Jackson, a potential top-10 overall selection who is hitting .429/.600/1.000 in 12 games this season, has hit five home runs this spring, giving him 41 for his career. He is within striking distance of the San Diego Section career home run record of 47 set by another product of “The Factory,” outfielder John Drennen, a 2005 first-round pick of the Cleveland Indians.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/high-school/high-school-top-25-april-8/

[Willihammer]

If the Twins draft Jackson, do you move him to the outfield immediately to stave off concussion risk or catching related decline?

Or, try to keep him at C?

 

Sounds to me like his bat is plenty good to stick in the OF.

[cmb0252]

If the Twins draft Jackson, do you move him to the outfield immediately to stave off concussion risk or catching related decline?

Or, try to keep him at C?

 

Sounds to me like his bat is plenty good to stick in the OF.

 

I would move him to RF right after drafting him. His bat is way too valuable to have it sit in the minors for 5+ years. I think if his hit tool is as good as reported he could be on a Buxton time table.

[tobi0040]

I would move him to RF right after drafting him. His bat is way too valuable to have it sit in the minors for 5+ years. I think if his hit tool is as good as reported he could be on a Buxton time table.

 

There is the issue for me. You have to balance best player available with the position. If this kid was going to hit like Bryce Harper, he would not be available at #5.

 

We are absolutely loaded in the OF. Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Harrison maybe, Kepler.

 

Option A - Take Jackson. Compare his value to the best two of the above (less Buxton), or a FA bat we can sign. They are always available.

 

Option B - Take one of the SS. Compare there value with what we have at that position. The free agent market is usually quite thin at SS. Guys like Andrus are getting $120M these days....

 

Option C - Take the best arm. Compare his value to who will likely be our 5th starter. We are never going to sign an arm like that on the free agent market.

 

My opinion is option B or C is the way to go. BPA is great, but so are the factors or supply and demand.

[Mike Sixel]

I would also move him, but I don't run the Twins (which is probably good for everyone).

[Mike Sixel]

I disagree......they aren't loaded in teh OF at all. They also need a DH and 1B. If this guy is a legit big time hitter, take him and move him.

[cmb0252]

There is the issue for me. You have to balance best player available with the position. If this kid was going to hit like Bryce Harper, he would not be available at #5.

 

We are absolutely loaded in the OF. Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Harrison maybe, Kepler.

 

Option A - Take Jackson. Compare his value to the best two of the above (less Buxton), or a FA bat we can sign. They are always available.

 

Option B - Take one of the SS. Compare there value with what we have at that position. The free agent market is usually quite thin at SS. Guys like Andrus are getting $120M these days....

 

Option C - Take the best arm. Compare his value to who will likely be our 5th starter. We are never going to sign an arm like that on the free agent market.

 

My opinion is option B or C is the way to go. BPA is great, but so are the factors or supply and demand.

 

If you think Gordon/Turner are equally as talented as Jackson then sure, draft a needed position. If you feel Jackson is a better prospect than Gordon/Turner, most experts would agree, then you have to take the most talented player. You can't draft based on big league needs. We didn't need a CF prospect when we drafted Buxton but that's turned out pretty well for us.

[tobi0040]

I disagree......they aren't loaded in teh OF at all. They also need a DH and 1B. If this guy is a legit big time hitter, take him and move him.

 

I guess we have to disagree over the definition of loaded. By my count, here is what we have.

 

On the big league club, we have a former top 40 prospect in Hicks. And a 22 year old who had a .735 OPS between his ages 21-22.

 

We have the #1 or #2 overall minor league system in baseball. The #1 prospect we have is an OF. The number 2 prospect, could end up in the OF. #7 (Rosario) is almost a lock to end up in the OF. #12 (Harrison) will likely end up there. #14 and #15 (Walker and Kelpler) are OF. AND this is the easiest position to find free agents.

 

So I think you must really, really be high on Jackson to pick him over an arm like Kolek, who is going to throw upper 90's and where a replacement is a lot harder to find. Or an SS like Turner or Gatewood. I would argue something like Rosario/Hicks in LF and one of these guys at SS would be a better alternative to Pedro/Escobar/Punto/Casilla/Bartlett and Jackson. Or Kolek/and one of the OF over Jackson/Pelfrey type.

[gunnarthor]

On Jackson - if the FO thinks he's the next Will Myers, move him to the OF. But I'm not sure his bat is that good. I haven't read a scouting report on him in awhile.

[Dman]

There is the issue for me. You have to balance best player available with the position. If this kid was going to hit like Bryce Harper, he would not be available at #5.

 

We are absolutely loaded in the OF. Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Harrison maybe, Kepler.

 

Option A - Take Jackson. Compare his value to the best two of the above (less Buxton), or a FA bat we can sign. They are always available.

 

Option B - Take one of the SS. Compare there value with what we have at that position. The free agent market is usually quite thin at SS. Guys like Andrus are getting $120M these days....

 

Option C - Take the best arm. Compare his value to who will likely be our 5th starter. We are never going to sign an arm like that on the free agent market.

 

My opinion is option B or C is the way to go. BPA is great, but so are the factors or supply and demand.

 

I agree and would prefer an arm over any of the above. The Twins never, ever, ever buy ace pitchers in FA. We need lot's of chances to develop one.

 

Having said that I was someone who didn't want Buxton and or Adrian Peterson because I thought we were good enough at those positions at the time and BPA was best way to go. So what do I know? It can be dangerous not to go BPA. I just want the Twins to find great pitchers anyway they can and drafting seems to be the only way we can get them.

[Mike Sixel]

Where did I say pick him over Kolek? Where did I even say I'd take him?

 

I said I'd move him, if they took him.

I said they aren't loaded in the OF. Hicks can't hit LH. Arcia is probably a good DH, and a good OF, but not sure. Buxton could be great. After that? Rosario clearly has issues, I wouldn't count on him being part of a "loaded" OF. And, you need three starting OF, a DH, and a 1B......that's five. I count Buxton and a bunch of question marks (I wish that wasn't true with Rosario, but it is now).