MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects Show

[cmb0252]

Tonight at 9 central the MLB Network will be unveiling MLB.com's top 50 prospects for 2014. I know Mayo hosted it last year, since then they added Jim Callis, so I'm not sure if just one or both will be on. Jim Callis mentioned on twitter that prospects will be live tweeting during the show. Buxton will be one but who knows where everyone else will fall!

[twinsfan34]

I'll be watching as well.

 

I was thinking it was going to be the top 100 though...

[cmb0252]

I'll be watching as well.

 

I was thinking it was going to be the top 100 though...

 

The show will only be going over the top 50 but the top 100 list will be released after the show.

 

I'm hoping to see 4 twins in the top 50.

[PseudoSABR]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article//mlbcom-unveils-its-top-100-prospects?ymd=20140123&content_id=66929504

 

Only Berrios in 50-100 at 90.

 

Just tuned in to see Stewart at 40.

[twinsfan34]

Wow...Kohl Stewart at #40?!

 

Only 19 years old...

 

Maybe MLB has more faith in the Twins staff than most...wouldn't think it's just on what Stewart showed last year...

[twinsfan34]

Wow...only Berrios in 50-100.

 

That means...Meyer, Stewart, Sano, and Buxton...does Rosario make the top 40 then too?

 

Doubt it.

[Twins Twerp]

Meyer @ 28. Rosario missed the cut. Didn't he make it last year?

[twinsfan34]

Meyer @ 28. Rosario missed the cut. Didn't he make it last year?

 

Yeah...and he ended up #63 at the year end.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/

[Twins Twerp]

unless he is in top 3?

[Twins Twerp]

I know who Jim Callis and John Mayo are, very good, reputable prospect writers. Who is the guy on the right and does he have the intel to be with the other two? This is WAY better than watching the joke the MLB draft has become on MLBNetwork.

[PseudoSABR]

1 Buxton

4 Sano

28 Meyers

40 Stewart

90 Berrios

[twinsfan34]

Paraphrasing Callis...

 

When it's all said and done, concerning this class, Buxton might be the best defender, have the best arm, be the best base stealer, have the best bat, and his weakest tool? Power, he might hit more than 25+ hr per season.

 

Unreal.

[dgwills]

It sure is nice to see all the Twins on this list. A couple years back we didn't have much. The Cubs and Boston sure have a lot in the top 100. I'm suprised that I don't hear people saying they have the best farm systems. Pretty scary when you think of how could Boston now. I'm sure the Cubbies will find a way to screw up though.

[beckmt]

Rosario probably did not make it because of the 50 game suspension. I would guess there are several Twins between 100-150, but the 101-200 list would be interesting to see. Should have seen this coming for Rosario when he was only ranked the 8th best 2nd Baseman. Still Twins have several pitchers who probably are going to be ranked at the end of this year. Should be interesting

[cmb0252]

Wow...Kohl Stewart at #40?!

 

Only 19 years old...

 

Maybe MLB has more faith in the Twins staff than most...wouldn't think it's just on what Stewart showed last year...

 

Normally the top 10-15 picks in any draft make the top 100 lists the following year due to talent alone. Stewart is a beast. His overall skill set is truly insane for a HS kid.

[cmb0252]

Callis was asked via Twitter to rank the past #1 prospects of the last 4 years and he ranked them Buxton, Trout, Moore, Profar. That DOES NOT mean he thinks Buxton will be a better player than Trout. Trout is the best 20-22 year old MLB player ever. Just a better prospect when looking back. Pretty nice compliment.

[jokin]

It sure is nice to see all the Twins on this list. A couple years back we didn't have much. The Cubs and Boston sure have a lot in the top 100. I'm suprised that I don't hear people saying they have the best farm systems. Pretty scary when you think of how could Boston now. I'm sure the Cubbies will find a way to screw up though.

 

And maybe the Astros, too. I'm surprised that the Cardinals aren't in the Top Ten MLB.com list of clubs (see below), and I'm stunned that the Red Sox and Dodgers ARE in this list***

 

***(or maybe not, I guess building a farm system doesn't require losing for 20 years like the Pirates and Royals, after all).

 

What a difference from the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 which showed 8 Twins on their list. Is the Twins farm system really #1 as so many claim? And as much as I like Berrios thus far, how does a guy who projects as a likely RP have more "projectbility" than other guys in the system (Thorpe, Gonsalves, et al)?

 

We had a 5-man Wave in 2013 with mixed results (Hicks, Arcia, Pinto, Tonkin, Gibson). The 2014 "2nd Wave" of 5, should crest noticeably higher as it could finally begin featuring some of the elite guys: Sano, Meyer, Buxton?? (Rosario, May). If the season goes as expected, with 70-74 wins, I would hope that the roster is cleared out via trade and DFA so that these 5 join the Twins between June 1 and September 1.

 

After that, though, the arrival time of the "Third Wave" is highly problematic: Stewart, Berrios, 2014 1st Rd. Pick, (Santana, Walker, Polanco, Kepler, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Vargas). And since there is a study out there that shows that only 1 out of 4 legit pitching prospects become effective major leaguers.....It sure seems there's still a lot of work to do (and surplus $$$ employed for additional better players acquired- through FA, International and new-found willingness in taking on unexpired contracts).

 

 

Prospect points

 

 

[TABLE=class: stats_table]

Teams

Players in

Top 100

Pts.

Astros

7

439

Red Sox

9

436

Cubs

7

393

Pirates

6

364

Twins

5

342

Royals

4

215

Dodgers

4

207

Mets

3

185

Orioles

3

184

Rockies

4

179

[/TABLE]

[johnnydakota]

Huh the Twins are 5th? funny deal

[JustinCB]

Wouldn't mind knowing how the prospect points break down based on BP's top 100 (Twins have 8 in theirs that were generally ranked higher as well, so I'm assuming the system would be ranked higher than 5th), and which has a better track record for graduating MLB talent over the last several years. This may be out there somewhere already, if not, somebody probably has some down time at work tomorrow, right?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If you'd like to see the ceiling for Buxton praise, check out Callis' Twitter feed from last night. After lasting for what seemed like more tham four hours of excitement over Buck, I bet Callis had to be seen by a doctor.

[oldguy10]

Callis was asked via Twitter to rank the past #1 prospects of the last 4 years and he ranked them Buxton, Trout, Moore, Profar. That DOES NOT mean he thinks Buxton will be a better player than Trout. Trout is the best 20-22 year old MLB player ever. Just a better prospect when looking back. Pretty nice compliment.

 

Trout - better than Willie and Mickey - not hardly by a long shot.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Wouldn't mind knowing how the prospect points break down based on BP's top 100 (Twins have 8 in theirs that were generally ranked higher as well, so I'm assuming the system would be ranked higher than 5th), and which has a better track record for graduating MLB talent over the last several years. This may be out there somewhere already, if not, somebody probably has some down time at work tomorrow, right?

 

i don't have the BP list (not online yet, right? I assume the reports are what they have printed in their annual), but this point system seems to be "101-X" where X=the player ranking.

[pierre75275]

I cant believe Roserio and Pinto didnt make the list. I am really surprised be that.

[nicksaviking]

Perhaps I'm biased, but I wouldn't trade Rosario, Pinto, Thorpe or Polanco for too many of the guys 80-100.

[twinsfan34]

I think Jokin did a reverse scoring to get the points system he has - which I think probably many publications would do (e.g. Buxton #1 overall, counts 100 pts, Stewart #40 overall, counts 60 pts).

 

I'd probably do a weighting system, and weight the top 20 prospects much more heavily as they typically, at least in BA's rankings, where top 20 prospects offer 1.5 WAR or higher during their controlled years at a 48% clip, whereas from #21-40 are at 28%, and the rest they do achieve that same contribution at around a 22% clip.

 

So...

5 in 10 of #1-20 = 1.5 WAR+

3 in 10 of #21-40 = 1.5 WAR+

2 in 10 of #41-100 = 1.5 WAR +

 

The interesting thing I found, is that Callis and Mayo, said of Buxton, there really wasn't any discussion over him being #1. It was "Buxton, and then the rest." Which, Boegarts was in MLB last year and held his own. Tavares had 4 hits in a ST game last year against the Twins and that guy is a Manny Ramirez/Barry Bonds (sans the BBs) waiting to happen, just a violent swinger who barrels balls. Archie Bradley, that guy will likely win 20 games at one point. Mark Appel is another. Miguel Sano, "will win HR titles, even at Target Field"...and yet, "no contest on Buxton being #1."

 

Anyone have any background on Trout's 'hype' or press when he was #1. I mean, he was #1 over Bryce Harper on some lists...then #2 on others. I wonder if those same guys would put Buxton over Harper (for those who had him #1).

 

And not that 'hype' means anything for production...but curious. I liked Trout better, but wasn't as cogniscient of what everyone was saying so much, as I am now - maybe because I'm a Twins fan, or maybe just because it wasn't there as it is now.

 

Baseball America gives Buxton a 75 overall. Pipeline gives him a 75 overall. Prospectus, I believe also gives him a 75.

 

80 - is sure fire hall of famer.

 

Anyone have what Trout got in 2012 in those publications?

[gunnarthor]

Mayo was one of the few guys who ranked Trout over Harper. Frankly, he might have been the only big name to do so (although the others would have had him at #2 or 3 at worst).

[gunnarthor]

I cant believe Roserio and Pinto didnt make the list. I am really surprised be that.

 

Maybe. A guy like Pinto is, at this point, a pretty safe guy but also a low impact guy. He will probably become a solid catcher who we complain about poor framing and pitch calling. Offensively, he'll be a slightly above avg hitter for a catcher - .280/.330/.400ish type lines worth maybe 2-3 WAR. That's not bad but it's not sexy either. A guy like Joey Gallo - #92 on MLB's list is really sexy. He's the only prospect with power comparable to Sano in the minors. He's a heck of a lottery ticket even if it's likely that his pitch recognition problems means he never makes it. But if he does figure that out, he's a true power hitter. I'd probably trade Pinto for Gallo.

 

Rosario is getting knocked for the PED suspension and some still question his ability to stick at second. He might be a strong bat at second or might end up as a sorta utility bench bat that can play some second and back up the corners. Jury is still out on him. Others like him a lot more than mlb.com does.

 

Responding to another post, I think Thorpe is on the radar but just needs more time. A year from now he might very well be like the Red Sox' Owens, who just shot up lists.

[TRex]

Hey Gun...

I know you know, but I think it's worth the extra effort to make sure to remind ourselves that Rosario's suspension is NOT for PEDs, but rather a 'drug of abuse'.

[Turd Furgeson]

Wow...Kohl Stewart at #40?!

 

Only 19 years old...

 

Maybe MLB has more faith in the Twins staff than most...wouldn't think it's just on what Stewart showed last year...

 

Stewart has the potential to be a #1 starter. He's a long ways from ready, but the talent is undeniable.

[cmb0252]

I cant believe Roserio and Pinto didnt make the list. I am really surprised be that.

 

Definitely was surprised by not having Rosario on the list.