Four down, one to go: Who will be the Twins 5th starter?

[Parker Hageman]

In theory, the Twins have locked up four of their five rotation spots in Kevin Correira, Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey. There are some reports that the Twins are still interested in adding another arm, specifically, as 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson reports, Johan Santana.

 

It is an interesting situation as the team has a glut of starters whose ceilings, with the exception of Kyle Gibson, project to be back of the rotation arms. There is the intriguing if not mystifying Samuel Deduno and the low-strikeout/middling-ground ball rates of Scott Diamond and Vance Worley. Terry Ryan has stated that he was impressed by Indy ball graduate Andrew Albers’ contributions in 2013. If Santana is indeed added to the mix, say on a minor league contract, it will provide for an interesting competition this spring.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7853,5285,5089,755,6435,10123

 

Naturally there is plenty of performance yet to be seen before making the ultimate decision but who do you think goes north with the team and is that the person of the six you would want to go north? Is it someone not in the organization now?

[Mike Sixel]

What is the options status of them, again? I do think that will matter.

 

I know what I'd do, but I'm pretty sure it is not what they will do.

[jay]

I think one of Deduno, Diamond, and Worley will be the 5th starter. I think Gibson and Albers start in the minors. I think the winner of those first three and Correia will have a shorter leash than we've seen the last few years.

[JB_Iowa]

I think one of Deduno, Diamond, and Worley will be the 5th starter. I think Gibson and Albers start in the minors. I think the winner of those first three and Correia will have a shorter leash than we've seen the last few years.

 

I was thinking about the "short leash" question and the fact that ultimately TR cut loose Jason Marquis.

 

While shedding payroll in such a manner isn't ideal (and would really hurt on Nolasco and Hughes), there is at least a little precedent for thinking that the Twins are hedging their bets with the understanding that they may have to eat some salary at some point.

[johnnydakota]

I think one of Deduno, Diamond, and Worley will be the 5th starter. I think Gibson and Albers start in the minors. I think the winner of those first three and Correia will have a shorter leash than we've seen the last few years.

 

Kinda have to dont they, how many years will fans cling to we will be better next year ?

1 of the most confusing thing last year, was not finding out about certain players

[Otto von Ballpark]

What is the options status of them, again? I do think that will matter.

 

Options are noted on Jeremy's excellent page:

http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2291-Minnesota-Twins-Roster-Payroll-2014

 

Looks like Deduno, Diamond, and Worley are out. Pretty sure one of those three will get the nod initially.

[jay]

I should add I think it will be Worley or Deduno with Diamond a distant third. Oh, and I'm okay with all of that.

[twinsnorth49]

I think it will be Worley and likely should be, he's one out of the few that are out of options, that in my mind, has the best chance of turning it around. Considering he's only 26 and has the highest upside, you'd have to think he's the guy they most want to slide in there.

[jokin]

Options are noted on Jeremy's excellent page:

http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2291-Minnesota-Twins-Roster-Payroll-2014

 

Looks like Deduno, Diamond, and Worley are out. Pretty sure one of those three will get the nod initially.

 

Because of his shoulder injury, they can be creative and use some wiggle room for keeping Deduno around a little longer by stashing him on the DL to start the season.

[Thrylos]

Got to add more to the mix. This guy for sure, since he set that goal himself (and because Ryan said so). Kris Johnson, because Ryan said so (and because he is better than Albers and Diamond.) Also Duensing (because Ryan said so too)

 

On the other hand, I expect Albers to not be on the roster much longer (as soon as Pelfrey becomes official) and things to happen before the end of February (like trades) that will change the picture here.

 

The more I dig into the Deduno situation (dual labrum and rotator cuff surgery; and barely started to long toss now) the more I am thinking DL-60 and ready around July, so I really doubt that he will be part of the equation to start the season.

 

But this whole conversation is better to happen in a couple of months because for sure there will be changes in the personnel by then, so now it is a tad premature...

[JB_Iowa]

My only hope is that Ron Gardenhire does not name his starting rotation before Spring Training begins.

[twinsnorth49]

Kinda have to dont they, how many years will fans cling to we will be better next year ?

1 of the most confusing thing last year, was not finding out about certain players

 

Which ones, out of curiosity?

[Mike Sixel]

Given the options situation, I'm going Worley, with Deduno on the DL, and Gibson and Albers in AAA. Diamond in the MLB pen or traded with someone else for some minor leaguer. If Worely doesn't make it, that Revere trade looks suspect (though I don't think that impacts Ryan's decision at all). Worley is young, has some previous success, and has some upside. Of the guys they could lose, I'd want to lose him the least frankly.

[Parker Hageman]

Both Diamond/Worley are out of options so the Twins will likely give one of them the first shot to win to job in camp. Worley has had shoulder inflammation to end his 2013 season so there is likely the concern he's not fully healthy.

 

the Deduno situation (dual labrum and rotator cuff surgery; and barely started to long toss now)

 

Fair point. Surgery was on September 18th. While it was not a complete tear -- it was described as a fraying/slight tear unlike, say, Jesse Crain's blowout -- it still is difficult for pitchers to regain flexibility and it could take until after the season starts to fully recover.

[Mike Sixel]

If it is between Diamond and Gibson, give me Gibson 100 x out of 100 chances.

[howieramone1406390264]

Ryan said Swarzak and Duensing should come to ST stretched out, about the same time he said Sano and Buxton were not untouchable and well before the signing of 3 free agent starting pitchers. I would put them down for Plan C and would expect to see them start only if we find ourselves in a race again with the Loveable Losers for the 4th pick.

[zwiefz]

First time post so be gentle

 

I would consider Nolasco, Hughes, and Pelfrey as locks(based soley on the recent financial commitment). But with Diamond, Deduno, and Worley out of options would the Twins be able to get anything of value(i.e. position players or legit pitching prospects at this point) for any of them OR Correia? Remember, Correia's name was floated at the trade deadline last year. The only reason he has been considered a lock thus far is because he was the most consistent starter last year. But with Nolasco and Hughes added is that as much of a necessity this year? I see Albers, Gibson, and Johnson in AAA to start as injury insurance or until their performance warrants a midseason trade/demotion of one of the opening day rotation members.

 

So does anyone see one of the rotation candidates being part of a trade yet this offseason? Out of Correia(consistent), Deduno(intriguing), Diamond(lefty), and Worley(young) do you think could get the most in return?

[Trautmann13]

Gut tells me rotation will be:

Nolasco

Correia

Hughes

Pelfrey

Deduno

 

But like someone already said, I think that Deduno will have a very short leash and will be sent down with Diamond/Gibson/ Worley taking his spot if he struggles.

[howieramone1406390264]

First time post so be gentle

 

I would consider Nolasco, Hughes, and Pelfrey as locks(based soley on the recent financial commitment). But with Diamond, Deduno, and Worley out of options would the Twins be able to get anything of value(i.e. position players or legit pitching prospects at this point) for any of them OR Correia? Remember, Correia's name was floated at the trade deadline last year. The only reason he has been considered a lock thus far is because he was the most consistent starter last year. But with Nolasco and Hughes added is that as much of a necessity this year? I see Albers, Gibson, and Johnson in AAA to start as injury insurance or until their performance warrants a midseason trade/demotion of one of the opening day rotation members.

 

So does anyone see one of the rotation candidates being part of a trade yet this offseason? Out of Correia(consistent), Deduno(intriguing), Diamond(lefty), and Worley(young) do you think could get the most in return?

 

Welcome, good first post! I think they will trade Correia if it appears the starting rotation will be crowded, but probably not until at least early ST performances. Veteran inning eaters are going for up to 8M per year and it couldn't but help his career to get as far away from this board as possible.

[Brock Beauchamp]

First time post so be gentle

 

I would consider Nolasco, Hughes, and Pelfrey as locks(based soley on the recent financial commitment). But with Diamond, Deduno, and Worley out of options would the Twins be able to get anything of value(i.e. position players or legit pitching prospects at this point) for any of them OR Correia? Remember, Correia's name was floated at the trade deadline last year. The only reason he has been considered a lock thus far is because he was the most consistent starter last year. But with Nolasco and Hughes added is that as much of a necessity this year? I see Albers, Gibson, and Johnson in AAA to start as injury insurance or until their performance warrants a midseason trade/demotion of one of the opening day rotation members.

 

So does anyone see one of the rotation candidates being part of a trade yet this offseason? Out of Correia(consistent), Deduno(intriguing), Diamond(lefty), and Worley(young) do you think could get the most in return?

 

Correia certainly has value. Worley, Deduno, and Diamond do not.

 

This isn't an issue, IMO. Out of ST, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see either Deduno or Diamond on waivers. There simply isn't room for them unless Ryan trades a reliever or two.

 

That leaves Deduno/Diamond and Worley. I think Worley will perform well enough to win the fifth spot in the rotation. The other will take the sixth rotation spot when someone goes down.

 

If everybody is performing at that point (unlikely), then I'd expect to see Correia moved in June or July. If the team is out of contention, another reliever could go with him. As could Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, and a host of other players. I think we'll see a quasi-fire sale at some point in 2014, though the return won't be particularly good on any of the guys the Twins are offering.

 

And at that point, none of this will be a problem.

[maars]

First time post so be gentle

So does anyone see one of the rotation candidates being part of a trade yet this offseason? Out of Correia(consistent), Deduno(intriguing), Diamond(lefty), and Worley(young) do you think could get the most in return?

 

Correia and Deduno are probably our best shots to get something decent in a trade, but even then I'm not sure how good the return would be. If it's a mid-season trade, we're probably looking at a deal with a contender, so that's likely a 10-25 ranked organizational prospect in a not so good system. Dealing either one of them before the season would open up a few more potential partners, so that's what I'm hoping for. In terms of current Twins prospects that I think might be good comps for what's achievable, I'm thinking Mason Melotakis, Miguel Sulbaran, Logan Darnell, Niko Goodrum, or maybe Danny Santana at a stretch.

[Thrylos]

That leaves Deduno/Diamond and Worley. I think Worley will perform well enough to win the fifth spot in the rotation. The other will take the sixth rotation spot when someone goes down.

 

Here is the issue I got with this logic: I kinda agree that from those 3 Worley is more likely to be on the 25 man roster (but I think that he will fight with Swarzak for that number 5 spot and the loser will be the swing man).

 

Where do you stash the other 2? Deduno you stash on the DL till June/July. Diamond will not go through waivers... It will not be a great loss by any means (you got Kris Johnson who is at least comparable if not better, and Logan Darnell, and Pat Dean -not on the 40-man, in AAA if need.)

 

Where it might get really interesting (and I hope it does) is if Meyer and/or Gibson have a phenomenal spring training...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here is the issue I got with this logic: I kinda agree that from those 3 Worley is more likely to be on the 25 man roster (but I think that he will fight with Swarzak for that number 5 spot and the loser will be the swing man).

 

Where do you stash the other 2? Deduno you stash on the DL till June/July. Diamond will not go through waivers... It will not be a great loss by any means (you got Kris Johnson who is at least comparable if not better, and Logan Darnell, and Pat Dean -not on the 40-man, in AAA if need.)

 

Where it might get really interesting (and I hope it does) is if Meyer and/or Gibson have a phenomenal spring training...

 

I think the Twins end Spring Training by washing their hands of Diamond and putting him on waivers. Just a gut feeling I have.

 

I don't see Swarzak getting another shot at starting with this roster. Too many guys in front of him, too much success in the bulllpen.

 

But these are just gut feelings. There are at least a dozen ways this could play out by the end of March.

[DaveW]

Having DeDuno, Gibson, Albers, Diamond, Worley, Swarzak being discussed as the #5 pitcher, instead of being discussed as the #1,#2,#3 and #4 pitchers is a nice problem to suddenly have.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I actually tink Gibson could be the third best pitcher on the roster, maybe Worley. We are discussing who will be the 5th known starter, not 5th best starter, right?

[JB_Iowa]

It is a lot more rewarding to think that someone might have to be dropped despite pitching well than to think about how to scrape together enough pitching to make it through the season. It could still go to h*ll in a handbasket but at least I feel like the Twins have tried to put together a rotation worthy of the term "major league pitching staff".

 

I'll go with:

 

Nolasco

Hughes

Pelfrey

Correia

Worley (mostly because I feel like we never got to appreciate his "Vanimal" side)

[raindog]

I'm really hoping the Twins don't screw around with stretching out Duensing and Swarzak. I like the chance that one of Worley, Deduno, Diamond, Albers, or Gibson performs well. Why add two other guys to the mix when we've already seen they can't succeed as starters? Just be happy that they've found nice niches in the bullpen.

[whatever54]

I think JB_Iowa's list of Nolasco/Hughes/Pelfrey/ Correia/Worley is as reasonable a prediction as any. With Gibson, K Johnson, Albers in the minors and Deduno on the DL. Not sure where that leaves Diamond, not sure how much I really care.

[cmathewson]

Deduno, hands down. Then Diamond. Then Gibson. Then Worley. Then Albers.

[Lonestar]

Most would bet on Correia in the opening day roster, whether they want him there or not. Based onsmall sample size, the Twins do not have much of a history of trading free agents mid-contract.

 

I would bet they put Deduno on the 60-day DL. I think he would have to make the 25-manroster first, which means they would have to option someone first.

 

Let Worley and Diamond battle it out in spring training. Hopefully they both shine and JR can flip onefor a building block. They are both somewhat fringie and coming off a bad year after elbow surgery. The thing is there is no better place to hidethem. Swarzak appears to be a better long reliever and most do not want him starting. I don’t think Diamond does not have the splits suitable for a LHP reliever. And wishcasting here, I hope the Twins go to a 6-man bullpen so they can have a 5-man bench with only 1 and a fraction catchers on it.

 

If the Twins do go with a 7-man bullpen, do they need two long relievers? I don’t think so. I would rather get Tonkin’s feet wet. The Twins will probably option Tonkin and Pressly, then keep the Diamond/Worley runner up in the 7-man pen (unless the runner-up shines or flops in spring training).

 

Of course, both Diamond and Worley can flop in spring training.

 

I’m guessing Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Correia, and Worley.

 

Gibson, Myers, May, Albers, and Johnson are ticketed for Rochester.