Twins & SS Stephen Drew?

[RedBull34]

I'm all for it. In any case you could always trade him, for more then a 2nd Rounder come playoff time anyways in case they do want to get rid of him.

 

In matter of fact, I can't think of a better move for the Twins to do this offseason.

[Major League Ready]

Does Florimon become a utility player or does he have trade value given his salary and the lack of FA SS?

[RedBull34]

Does Florimon become a utility player or does he have trade value given his salary and the lack of FA SS?

Utility player, which is realistically all he is anyways.

[Steve Lein]

I've actually come around to liking this idea more as I look around. Drew is very comparable to J.J. Hardy, both in offense and defense.

 

He makes up for the fewer HR's with a higher OBP, and while he's still not quite in J.J.'s territory defensively, he's not far behind and likely still an improvement on Florimon.

 

Considering I don't really like any of the Twins SS prospects until you get down to Niko Goodrum (and I think it can be argued they don't actually have a single legit SS prospect), I say go for it.

[richardkr34]

Some interesting thoughts from Keith Law on Arizona's SS prospects:

 

"With Paul Goldschmidt kind of OK over there at first, Trumbo will have to play left field, which will bring back memories of Ryan Klesko for those of you old enough to remember that adventure; I can picture the Diamondbacks' front office sitting there at Salt River Fields in late March and wondering what the heck they'd done. The minor leaguers coming to Arizona -- one from the Angels, reportedly fringy relief prospect AJ Schugel, and one from the White Sox -- don't matter enough to change the fact that this is a net loss of value for the Diamondbacks.

 

There could be a ripple effect for Arizona, as now third baseman Matt Davidson becomes a surplus asset with Martin Prado likely moving from left field to third base. The Diamondbacks also have two comparable shortstops in Didi Gregorius and Chris Owings, only needing to keep one of them, and could try to use these two players to fill any remaining holes."

 

I wonder what it would take to get Chris Owings...

[Riverbrian]

I don't like giving up a high draft pick.

I don't like what is rumored for dollars.

I don't like what is rumored for contract length.

I don't like Drew's Injury History.

I don't like his hitting stats post Age 27.

I don't like that Arizona ran him out of town.

I don't like that he turned down a fairly large qualifying offer from a World Championship team.

I don't like this Nomad like bouncing around he's been doing.

 

I do like his D a little

I like Florimon's D much better.

[RedBull34]

I don't like giving up a high draft pick.

I don't like what is rumored for dollars.

I don't like what is rumored for contract length.

I don't like Drew's Injury History.

I don't like his hitting stats post Age 27.

I don't like that Arizona ran him out of town.

I don't like that he turned down a fairly large qualifying offer from a World Championship team.

I don't like this Nomad like bouncing around he's been doing.

 

I do like his D a little

I like Florimon's D much better.

 

Can trade him later

Might as well

3 years? Can trade

Fair enough

He had a 109 wrc last year. I would love that.

Badly run organization

Who cares? He wants more years.

He's played for all of two teams. If that's nomadic please don't talk to Octavio Dotel.

 

His D is less rangy but ranks higher in DRS. More solid where he is at. What's not to like? 50 points higher OBP and 100 SLG. He is a massive upgrade over Florimon!

[richardkr34]

Can trade him later

Might as well

3 years? Can trade

Fair enough

He had a 109 wrc last year. I would love that.

Badly run organization

Who cares? He wants more years.

He's played for all of two teams. If that's nomadic please don't talk to Octavio Dotel.

 

His D is less rangy but ranks higher in DRS. More solid where he is at. What's not to like? 50 points higher OBP and 100 SLG. He is a massive upgrade over Florimon!

 

Three teams: D-Backs, A's, BoSox

[Boom Boom]

Well, I'd jump in feet first.

 

Stephen Drew is 30 years old, plays excellent defense, has 15ish HR power, and gets on base at a pretty decent clip. He's a former top prospect that has had a very promising career arc short-circuited by a gruesome ankle injury that appears to be healed. And, of course, he plays at a position of tremendous need for the Twins. The biggest knock against him - he doesn't hit lefthanders.

 

Drew has a .681 career OPS versus lefties. Florimon has a .601 career OPS.... total.

 

Any way you slice it, Drew is an upgrade. Fairness in conversation, I'm not a fan of Florimon.

[Riverbrian]

Can trade him later

Might as well

3 years? Can trade

Fair enough

He had a 109 wrc last year. I would love that.

Badly run organization

Who cares? He wants more years.

He's played for all of two teams. If that's nomadic please don't talk to Octavio Dotel.

 

His D is less rangy but ranks higher in DRS. More solid where he is at. What's not to like? 50 points higher OBP and 100 SLG. He is a massive upgrade over Florimon!

 

Obviously... We see things differently.

 

 

I will give you this. Boston extended a qualifying offer to him for 14.1 Million.

 

 

That tells me that Boston liked him in the clubhouse. Even with Bogaarts knocking on the door.

 

 

Boston liking him in the clubhouse is different than other reports I've read on him... so... I'm not as solid a no as I was a year ago.

[Guest USAFChief]

Sano-Drew-Dozier-Mauer sounds like something worth trying for a few years.

 

At some point you have to start playing for today, rather than playing for the future.

[JP3700]

A comparison of Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew in 2013. At the plate and their defense.

 

Ellsbury - .781 OPS

Drew - .776 OPS

 

Ellsbury - Fielding adjusted to position +12.0

Drew - Fielding adjusted to position +10.9

 

Comparison of the same over their career.

 

Ellsbury - .789 OPS

Drew - .764 OPS

 

Ellsbury - +47.8

Drew - +22.0

 

A few other things to consider. Ellsbury put up a .928 OPS in 2011. His highest OPS in any other full season is the .781 in 2013. Drew was worth -17.1 fielding in his first three years. His last five years +39.1. They are both 30 years old.

 

Ellsbury contract - 7 years,$153 million

Drew contract - ?

 

I know Ellsbury adds value with his base running, but Drew at $100M less starts to look like a steal.

[Riverbrian]

Actually... Baserunning is something I like about Drew.

 

The guy is a triples machine.

[johnnydakota]

Then they would need to give up their 3rd pick for one of those guys.

And a 3rd rounder is more important then a 2nd rounder? =) in for a dollar, in for a pound

[JP3700]

Actually... Baserunning is something I like about Drew.

 

The guy is a triples machine.

 

Well then hopefully I've swayed you a little to the dark side..

[bird]

IF the player works out. Heck, the Twins have wasted top 5 picks, let alone second rounders.

 

Who hasn't, mike? And what about the ones that work out?

[Guest USAFChief]

Who hasn't, mike? And what about the ones that work out?

I think the point would be trading a second round pick, that might someday play in the major leagues, for someone who WILL play in the major leagues...now...seems like a fairly easy call.

[Riverbrian]

I think the point would be trading a second round pick, that might someday play in the major leagues, for someone who WILL play in the major leagues...now...seems like a fairly easy call.

 

I'd make that trade. But the 2nd round pick would have to throw in about 7 million.

[bird]

I think the point would be trading a second round pick, that might someday play in the major leagues, for someone who WILL play in the major leagues...now...seems like a fairly easy call.

 

Thanks. I missed mike's point.

[Mike Sixel]

Who hasn't, mike? And what about the ones that work out?

Did you rad my post on the percent that do work out?

[Riverbrian]

I just like the way Birdwatcher said

 

"who hasn't, Mike"

 

After that details didn't matter... I liked the post.

[David Woodley]

Stephen Drew is a top 5 overall SS in the game. Florimon, is not and ultimately is a UTIL player (though a real nice one) at best on a winning team.

 

If you don't have to break the bank for him, you absolutely have to give Drew an offer. Perfect #2 hitter IMO, and a stud defensively.

 

Any claims that Florimon is the same thing as him are so off point it's not worth responding to.

 

3 years 31-35 mil? Get it done!

[rico7961]

Drew would be a nice addition at ss. But I would rather spend the 30-40M it takes to sign Drew and spend it on signing more pitching (Garza, Jiminez,etc.). They can then try to acquire a ss through trade. Franklin of Sea., Owings or Gregorius of Ari., Pastornicky of Atl., or Espinosa of Wash. are all young cost controlled ss with 4-6 years of team control. That would be a better manuever IMO. Although making a trade for any of the mentioned young ss is a very difficult proposition.

[twinsfan34]

I wouldn't sign Drew for a bag of balls.

 

He hit 6 for 54 or a .111 clip in the playoffs. Getting to the playoffs and sucking even worse than his .241/.324/.406 statline the past 2 years in Boston isn't worth that kind of money.

 

Florimon hit .221/.281/.330 last year, which isn't much different than Drew. However, Florimon had the 2nd best range at SS in MLB. A dWAR of 2.1, Drew was 0.6.

 

According the the SABR community, Florimon was the 2nd best defensive SS in the AL, Drew was a distant 7th out of 10 qualified (everyday) AL shortstops. Out of 21 MLB qualified Shortstops (full-time) he was 13th out of 21 defensively.

 

Shortstops

[TABLE=width: 600]

[TR=class: tableizer-firstrow]

Player

Team

[TH=align: right] SDI[/TH]

[/TR]

[TD=align: left]Alcides Escobar[/TD]

[TD=align: left]KC[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8.1[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Pedro Florimon[/TD]

[TD=align: left]MIN[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7.6[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Yunel Escobar[/TD]

[TD=align: left]TB[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6.2[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Elvis Andrus[/TD]

[TD=align: left]TEX[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.3[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Jhonny Peralta[/TD]

[TD=align: left]DET[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.7[/TD]

[TD=align: left]J.J. Hardy[/TD]

[TD=align: left]BAL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.6[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Alexei Ramirez[/TD]

[TD=align: left]CHW[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.4[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Stephen Drew[/TD]

[TD=align: left]BOS[/TD]

[TD=align: right]-0.8[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Asdrubal Cabrera[/TD]

[TD=align: left]CLE[/TD]

[TD=align: right]-7.6[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Erick Aybar[/TD]

[TD=align: left]LAA[/TD]

[TD=align: right]-7.9[/TD]

[TD=align: left]Jed Lowrie[/TD]

[TD=align: left]OAK[/TD]

[TD=align: right]-11.4[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

 

Florimon had a 2.1 WAR in 134g last year. He's 26, 1 full season in the pros and will cost $495k next year.

Drew had a 3.1 WAR in 124g last year, he's 30 and he'll cost at least $10M next year and beyond.

 

$9.5M for 1 more WAR a year is overpaying even according to unweighted WAR/$ metrics.

 

Pete Kosma, who now is available in St. Louis, was the 2nd best SS in all of baseball defensively, according to the SABR community can be had in a trade pretty easily and for a salary of less than $490K (pre-arb eligible).

 

Kosma does not hit as well as Florimon and is barely better.

 

Florimon in a full 150g next year could hit 15 HR...and likely improve his .221 average to .245 range. All while at a cost of a cool $500k.

 

No-brainer. Spend that $9.5M elsewhere. Add $4M to that, get Garza. Or if even actually considering $10M or more for Drew without being stoned, pony up and go after Tanaka. 1 more Win (if Florimon doesn't improve)...isn't worth the $9.5M. You can get more WAR difference from a pitcher as you have to now subtract Florimon's 2.1 WAR as replacement.

[twinsfan34]

AND...losing a 2nd RD pick in a very rich draft!?! (face to palm)

[Dilligaf69]

Nope! doesn't do it for me.

[Guest USAFChief]

Nitpic: Drew didnt play "the last two years in Boston."

[twinsfan34]

Nitpic: Drew didnt play "the last two years in Boston."

 

True!!

[JP3700]

I wouldn't sign Drew for a bag of balls. Drew had a 3.1 WAR in 124g last year

 

If you wouldn't sign a three+ win player for a bag of balls, then your team is never going to get anywhere.

 

He hit 6 for 54 or a .111 clip in the playoffs.

 

Using a 54 AB sample size?

 

Getting to the playoffs and sucking even worse than his .241/.324/.406 statline the past 2 years in Boston isn't worth that kind of money.

 

Using a two year sample size for Drew and only one for Florimon? Which conveniently includes Drew's outlier year in 2012 where he hit .223/.309/.348 coming off of an injury compared to his career line of .264/.329/.435.

 

Florimon hit .221/.281/.330 last year, which isn't much different than Drew.

A .611 OPS isn't much different than a .776 OPS?

 

However, Florimon had the 2nd best range at SS in MLB. A dWAR of 2.1, Drew was 0.6.

Florimon had a 2.1 WAR in 134g last year. He's 26, 1 full season in the pros and will cost $495k next year.

Drew had a 3.1 WAR in 124g last year, he's 30 and he'll cost at least $10M next year and beyond.

 

You're using Baseball Reference when you refer to dWAR. BR uses RZR as their defensive metric. UZR is a much more accurate measure of defense because it includes RZR and other factors. Here are Fangraphs measures on the two players..

 

Drew UZR: 5.3

Florimon UZR: 4.3

 

Drew WAR: 3.4

Florimon WAR: 1.3

 

Florimon in a full 150g next year could hit 15 HR...and likely improve his .221 average to .245 range. All while at a cost of a cool $500k.

 

What in Florimon's history indicates to you that he will have this kind of improvement at the plate?

 

The thing is, I like Florimon. He's a useful player. But Drew is a significant upgrade over Florimon.

[darin617]

Per Matthew Cerrone of Metsblog, the Twins are one of three team in on top free agent SS Stephen Drew, who received a qualified offer:

 

http://metsblog.com/metsblog/mets-still-looking-for-ss-in-play-for-stephen-drew/

 

This would be a complete waste of money. The Twins are in no position to add a SS now. They would have been better served getting a quality catcher since nobody seems to believe Pinto can handle the job and Doumit no longer wants to catch.