What Happened to the Twins? by Elliot Mann

[Mike Sixel]

Honest but dumb question for all the war mongers but I'm not afraid to ask it. The author writes:

 

"How bad were the trades made by the Twins from 2007 to 2011? In all of the major trades combined, the Twins received 9.3 wins above replacement level. They gave away 50.4 wins. In Smith's four years, then, the Twins traded away 10.275 wins per year."

 

Does this mean that, on autopilot, the Twins record over 2008-2010 would or should have been:

 

2008: 98-74

2009: 96-66

2010: 104-58

 

Only if you somehow sign Santana to an extension. Only if you somehow don't acquire Gomez in the first place to trade for Hardy. No, no it does not. The analysis is lacking some precision, imo (and others have pointed out similar things).

[Brock Beauchamp]

The article was sloppy but its general premise is accurate:

 

Bill Smith was horrible at negotiating trades.

 

Personally, I don't think he did a terrible job in the draft and international markets. He got a raw deal a couple of time with injuries, for sure... But his handling of the MLB roster in trades was atrocious, excepting the Hardy/Gomez trade, which he later negated by that awful Hoey trade.

[Mike Sixel]

Sure sould be nice to have hardy....sure hard to judge Smith on that, given what we have heard about Gardy's desires. But, we have no idea how those decisions were made.

[bird]

Whom ever is on top gets the blame rightfully so or not. Bill Smith didn't do a good job but so didn't a lot of other people. To drop off as fast as we did there had to be a perfect storm of screw ups. Drafting, trading, resigning, and player development.

 

This.

 

And not just screw ups. Other circumstances beyong the control of the GM enter into these types of cyclical downturns.

 

OK, I'll say it again: when an organization has five dozen people working on scouting, drafting, and developing talent, how much credit or blame do you want to heap onto the GM, just because the plaque was on his desk? Stop this nonsense please. Don't try to tell me that Sano would not possibly be a Twin were it not for Smith, because that's not a true statement.

 

Trades and signings are another story. Smith's track record in this regard is awful. Ryan's while understandably blemished by the inevitable occasional failure, is impressive. THAT is why Ryan gets praised by his knowledgable peers.

[johnnydakota]

I have no idea... And neither do you.

 

Smith's name was on the plaque. For good or bad, he's the guy who gets the accolades and blame for bad decisions.

 

Terry Ryan, who has spent more than 24 years in the Twins organization as a minor league player or executive, has been named Senior Advisor to the General Manager. In Ryan's new role, he will assist the General Manager on all player evaluation matters including the major leagues, minor leagues and international operations.So while we dont know where he was, we know where he was suppose to be

[Brock Beauchamp]

Terry Ryan, who has spent more than 24 years in the Twins organization as a minor league player or executive, has been named Senior Advisor to the General Manager. In Ryan's new role, he will assist the General Manager on all player evaluation matters including the major leagues, minor leagues and international operations.So while we dont know where he was, we know where he was suppose to be

 

That doesn't mean he was involved in MLB transactions. From the information we do have regarding Ryan's semi-retirement, he was working on scouting and MiLB.

 

Which has absolutely nothing to do with most of Smith's failures in trading MLB players.

 

Again, I don't know and neither do you.

[Mike Sixel]

This.

 

And not just screw ups. Other circumstances beyong the control of the GM enter into these types of cyclical downturns.

 

OK, I'll say it again: when an organization has five dozen people working on scouting, drafting, and developing talent, how much credit or blame do you want to heap onto the GM, just because the plaque was on his desk? Stop this nonsense please. Don't try to tell me that Sano would not possibly be a Twin were it not for Smith, because that's not a true statement.

 

Trades and signings are another story. Smith's track record in this regard is awful. Ryan's while understandably blemished by the inevitable occasional failure, is impressive. THAT is why Ryan gets praised by his knowledgable peers.

 

Like last year, when he traded for Worely, signed KC and Pelfrey, and made the rotation worse relative to the league?

 

I do agree, the GM gets way too much credit/blame for the draft, other than he hires the scouting director, and probably has say (at least) in the makeup and approach of the minor league development staff. But I do agree, the easiest way to judge a GM is on FA signings and on trades......what is Ryan's record in FA signings, in your opionon? Not just this year, but over his career?

[Brock Beauchamp]

What is Ryan's record in FA signings, in your opionon? Not just this year, but over his career?

 

I'll chime in:

 

1994-2000: Eh, don't really remember, to be honest. I remember a few highs and lows but won't really commit to a decision.

 

2001-2007: Bad, but hamstrung by payroll considerations. He picked up a couple of good players like Rogers but mostly, it was retreads that made me want to drink. A lot.

 

2011-2012: Ugh. Just ugh. Willingham was nice. Should have done so much more and it burnses us just to think about it, it does.

 

2013: So far, so good. Not a single complaint.

[johnnydakota]

That doesn't mean he was involved in MLB transactions. From the information we do have regarding Ryan's semi-retirement, he was working on scouting and MiLB.

 

Which has absolutely nothing to do with most of Smith's failures in trading MLB players.

 

Again, I don't know and neither do you.

 

I guess we will have to agree to disagree, we are here now with Terry so I for 1 am hoping he does good this year,But our Mission statment this year should be to get to 70s in wins, and to add to the future , wether or not that is trading for kids, or signing and trading for quality players who will have trade value .As there really are not that many guys avalible who will be contributing to this team in 2015-2017 when we hopefully make a run at a title

[Winston Smith]

The article was sloppy but its general premise is accurate:

 

Bill Smith was horrible at negotiating trades.

 

I don't know that he was the one doing the negotiating and neither do you!

[Mike Sixel]

I'll chime in:

 

1994-2000: Eh, don't really remember, to be honest. I remember a few highs and lows but won't really commit to a decision.

 

2001-2007: Bad, but hamstrung by payroll considerations. He picked up a couple of good players like Rogers but mostly, it was retreads that made me want to drink. A lot.

 

2011-2012: Ugh. Just ugh. Willingham was nice. Should have done so much more and it burnses us just to think about it, it does.

 

2013: So far, so good. Not a single complaint.

 

Are we sure he was hamstrung, or was it his choice? McPhail signed players to some of the largest contracts of their time. Why was his time different than Ryan's? I have no idea, but there is evidence (in McPhails' work) that this was not necessarily the owners. We don't know, but people give him a pass, while forgetting Jack Morris and other large deals.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't know that he was the one doing the negotiating and neither do you!

 

You're right. The guys whose job it was to negotiate trades did not negotiate trades.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Are we sure he was hamstrung, or was it his choice? McPhail signed players to some of the largest contracts of their time. Why was his time different than Ryan's? I have no idea, but there is evidence (in McPhails' work) that this was not necessarily the owners. We don't know, but people give him a pass, while forgetting Jack Morris and other large deals.

 

Baseball's landscape changed quite a bit between 1991 and 2003, though.

[Thrylos]

You're right. The guys whose job it was to negotiate trades did not negotiate trades.

 

Ryan was interviewed the other day and said that the last year or so Krivsky is the one who starts the trade negotiations and Anthony is the one who does the FA and contract negotiations and he oversees the process. I would not doubt that something similar was happening when Smith was the GM, with Smith even more removed than Ryan from baseball opinions...

[JB_Iowa]

Ryan was interviewed the other day and said that the last year or so Krivsky is the one who starts the trade negotiations and Anthony is the one who does the FA and contract negotiations and he oversees the process. I would not doubt that something similar was happening when Smith was the GM, with Smith even more removed than Ryan from baseball opinions...

 

To me there is difference between who you target for trade discussions and free agent acquisitions and the actual negotiating process.

 

I would guess that Bill Smith was more removed from the decision on who to target than Terry Ryan is but based on Ryan's statements when he "retired", I have to think that Smith was more involved in the negotiation process itself (the game has changed and is for "bright young negotiators).

[TheLeviathan]

The problem with this article is that it fits with a larger narrative about Smith that seems hell-bent on painting his tenure as an utter disaster. But take in just a few things quick:

 

His pre-2010 offseason was probably the best of any GM for this team in....well, forever. He dealt for Hardy, resigned Pavano after stealing him from Cleveland, brought in Thome, brought in Hudson, and resigned Mauer.

 

His work in the international market landed us a cornerstone of our rebuild in Sano. He's also responsible for Kepler, Rosario, Hicks, Gibson, etc.

 

So, yeah, the guy wasn't very good. He definitely dug a deeper hole with his own blunders, but Ryan and bad luck has a stake in many of those issues in 2011 as well. So just a little balance and fairness in some of these assessments would be nice. (The author did try to do that for sure)

[Kwak]

From the article; "...Smith was hired with the thinking that he could provide a seamless transition. Since Smith was seen as more of an administrator, the team also promoted then-scouting director Mike Radcliff to vice-president in charge of player personnel."

 

I infer the following from this statement: 1) When Ryan was GM he was the boss of the player personnel director (Radcliff); 2) the organization was changed to reflect that Smith was not "in charge" of player personnel, or Radcliff; 3) Radcliff's position (VP player personnel) was horizontal and slightly elevated to Smith's position (Radcliff was a VP, but Smith wasn't a VP, only the GM). Thus Smith, as GM, did not have the same power that Ryan held as GM. Smith would need to balance the interests of different mangers, some of whom were outside of his authority. Ergo, he must build consensus between people which may involve "horse-trading" of decisions and goals. It isn't realistic to conclude that Smith could act with the same latitude as Ryan--Smith didn't have Ryan's power. Smith wasn't "at the top" as his title suggests--player personnel was outside of his purview. Therefore, Radcliff (and his subordinates) who are making player evaluations (Gardenhire would evaluate the Active Roster also) is just as responsible as Smith for poor personnel decisions--because his (department's) provides the evaluations which would serve as the justification for taking an action (or non-action). In short, any blistering of Smith must include the very same for Radcliff and quite likely Gardenhire as well, their input served as the basis for the organization to take an action, Smith was simply (as he has stated) the last signature on the paper. Smith was "an organization guy", he wasn't the commanding general.

[jharaldson]

One thing I do respect Bill Smith for is that he had the guts to at least try to make the big decisions that were coming after 2007 (Hunter($90)/Santana($137)/Mauer($189)/Morneau($80)/Cuddyer($24)/Nathan($47)). I feel that more of the reason that Terry Ryan left was that he didn't enjoy the "Big" contracts and felt that the negotiations and money involved were not exciting so he took his ball and went home to scouting to let someone else have to deal with this problem.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ryan was interviewed the other day and said that the last year or so Krivsky is the one who starts the trade negotiations and Anthony is the one who does the FA and contract negotiations and he oversees the process. I would not doubt that something similar was happening when Smith was the GM, with Smith even more removed than Ryan from baseball opinions...

 

I absolutely believe that other people are involved in negotiations, especially early in the process.

 

But there's one guy who handles the final negotiations and puts pen to paper... The General Manager.

[Kwak]

I absolutely believe that other people are involved in negotiations, especially early in the process.

 

But there's one guy who handles the final negotiations and puts pen to paper... The General Manager.

 

Final negotiations: the decision to "make a deal" was already made, now it's simply agreeing on the price. Contract negotiations--sounds like the final step to me--so where are Smith's fingerprints? He neither started things nor ended them. To me Smith was the perfect Patsy, if things went well it was due to the fine work of others, but if things soured--it was Smith's fault because his job had a fancy title. Considering that he has been painted as "the fall guy", it is a wonder that he retains employment with the Twins in any capacity.

[Riverbrian]

The Twins Organization very rarely removes or fires anyone. They are seemingly loyal to a fault.

 

Bill Smith was removed from the position.

 

I have no inside knowledge but the fact that Bill Smith was removed when people rarely are... Tells me that... It was determined by the Twins that Bill Smith should not continue in the GM position for some reason.

 

I don't know about anyone else but that speaks pretty loudly to me.

[Mike Sixel]

One thing I do respect Bill Smith for is that he had the guts to at least try to make the big decisions that were coming after 2007 (Hunter($90)/Santana($137)/Mauer($189)/Morneau($80)/Cuddyer($24)/Nathan($47)). I feel that more of the reason that Terry Ryan left was that he didn't enjoy the "Big" contracts and felt that the negotiations and money involved were not exciting so he took his ball and went home to scouting to let someone else have to deal with this problem.

A problem he created by not acting sooner.......

[Willihammer]

Less than two months into Smith’s tenure as Twins general manager, free agent center fielder Torii Hunter signed a five-year, $90 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Twins had been offering three years, and a candid Hunter later said that he probably would have signed for five years and $75 million. The consensus around baseball was that the Angels had significantly overpaid, but the Twins were still left with a crater in the middle of their outfield and their lineup.

 

Within a week, Smith moved to address this newly-created hole. He dealt 23-year-old starter Matt Garza—an elite pitching prospect whom Baseball Prospectus had ranked as baseball’s no. 13 prospect before the season—and starting shortstop Jason Bartlett to the Tampa Bay Rays for a package headlined by outfielder Delmon Young, the runner-up for AL Rookie of the Year Award the season before, who had checked in at no. 3 on that same BP list of prospects.

 

Less than two months later, the other shoe dropped. Fearing that the team would lose Johan Santana as it had lost Hunter, Smith pulled off a trade, sending Santana to the New York Mets in exchange for four prospects, including highly-touted center fielder Carlos Gomez (BP’s no. 34 overall prospect) and oft-injured pitcher Phillip Humber (no. 26). The moves, while defensible on paper, were controversial at the time, and they don’t look any better in retrospect.

 

 

All because someone refused to go 5 years on Hunter.

[TheLeviathan]

All because someone refused to go 5 years on Hunter.

 

Yeah, those two hanging threads left by Ryan can't be overstated. Smith's idiocy certainly hurt the team Ryan took over, but Ryan's indecision/inflexibility on those two pivotal players were huge issues to leave on Smith. Hell, one could argue Smith was the one that salvaged Mauer from having the same issue.

 

The guy wasn't a good GM and he needed to go, but some fairness in evaluating him would be nice. We can all be happy Ryan's back without painting the past with a pollyanna brush.

[old nurse]

Yeah, those two hanging threads left by Ryan can't be overstated. Smith's idiocy certainly hurt the team Ryan took over, but Ryan's indecision/inflexibility on those two pivotal players were huge issues to leave on Smith. Hell, one could argue Smith was the one that salvaged Mauer from having the same issue.

 

The guy wasn't a good GM and he needed to go, but some fairness in evaluating him would be nice. We can all be happy Ryan's back without painting the past with a pollyanna brush.

 

Fairness in evaluation can not be accomplished when nobody can agree on what exactly a general manager does or doesn't do. Smith had a free agent to sign andd a star player to either trade or extend. Either he is capable of doing it from day one or he shouldn't have a leadership job. It is a game of blame someone for any mistake made. There isn't much Pollyanna on this board, just disagreements on processes that are not really known.

Maybe when he retires Ryan will sit down with Bonnes and write an e book. Then we will all know the proocess and can rehash these issues.

[TheLeviathan]

Fairness in evaluation can not be accomplished when nobody can agree on what exactly a general manager does or doesn't do. Smith had a free agent to sign andd a star player to either trade or extend. Either he is capable of doing it from day one or he shouldn't have a leadership job. It is a game of blame someone for any mistake made. There isn't much Pollyanna on this board, just disagreements on processes that are not really known.

Maybe when he retires Ryan will sit down with Bonnes and write an e book. Then we will all know the proocess and can rehash these issues.

 

While I agree that we can never know for sure, it completely kills any kind of discussion to conclude that. At the end of the day that title carries the weight of the decisions. Smith carries the weight of his blunders, but some of them were forced by Ryan's approach before leaving.

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I agree that we can never know for sure, it completely kills any kind of discussion to conclude that. At the end of the day that title carries the weight of the decisions. Smith carries the weight of his blunders, but some of them were forced by Ryan's approach before leaving.

 

Ryan absolutely left Smith in an ugly position. There's no doubt about that.

 

But given that bad situation, Smith went out and did just about the worst possible thing he could have done... Two or three times in a row. At the end of the day, I blame Ryan for punting on some important decisions but most of the blame falls on the guy who executed those trades in just about the worst way possible.

[Brock Beauchamp]

To me Smith was the perfect Patsy, if things went well it was due to the fine work of others, but if things soured--it was Smith's fault because his job had a fancy title. Considering that he has been painted as "the fall guy", it is a wonder that he retains employment with the Twins in any capacity.

 

If an organization was painting Smith to be the fall guy and patsy from the get-go, they wouldn't have kept him around after he was removed from the GM position. Why face ridicule for keeping a guy who the fan base thinks was a failure, a fan base whose main complaint is probably that the Twins are run like an Ol' Boys Club instead of a business? Following the logic breadcrumbs doesn't lead to a situation where Smith is still gainfully employed by this organization if they intentionally put him in the position of patsy. The Twins are not the Illuminati. You have to go pretty down the Conspiracy Theory rabbit hole to ignore all the contradictory evidence of him being set up to fail as some sort of high-level plot to... do something. I'm not quite clear on that part of the conspiracy.

[TheLeviathan]

Ryan absolutely left Smith in an ugly position. There's no doubt about that.

 

But given that bad situation, Smith went out and did just about the worst possible thing he could have done... Two or three times in a row. At the end of the day, I blame Ryan for punting on some important decisions but most of the blame falls on the guy who executed those trades in just about the worst way possible.

 

Totally agree. Most of it does fall there, but there seems to be a strong urge to excuse Ryan and ignore the positives Smith had.

 

And just think how different we would perceive him if 2010 hadn't had a flukes concussion hurt the best player and Ramos hadn't got hurt literally days before he pulled the trigger on Cliff Lee.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Totally agree. Most of it does fall there, but there seems to be a strong urge to excuse Ryan and ignore the positives Smith had.

 

And just think how different we would perceive him if 2010 hadn't had a flukes concussion hurt the best player and Ramos hadn't got hurt literally days before he pulled the trigger on Cliff Lee.

 

The Twins have really run into some **** luck when you get right down to it.

 

2006 they were a stellar team... And then Liriano goes down.

 

2010 they were a stellar team... And then Morneau goes down, Ramos gets injured and hurts his trade value.

 

Either one of those seasons, a healthy Twins team is a dominant force in the AL. It doesn't mean they would have won it all but it means they would have had a hell of a lot better shot at winning it all, that's for sure.