Jason Vargas is off the board...

[edavis0308]

To the Royals 4/32, per MLBTR.

[Winston Smith]

He likely would have been our best (starting) pitcher last year. About on par with Corriea, 8m a year for 4 years, cost of pitching is going up and up. Good Terry!

[notoriousgod71]

Their replacement for Chen?

[nicksaviking]

This is good news in my book. Get these high contact arms off the shopping list, they are always oh so tempting to the Twins.

[Boom Boom]

Their replacement for Chen?

 

Now there's a name I'm surprised the Twins haven't been linked to yet. Signing Chen would be the best way to avoid being #brucechenned.

[pierre75275]

Good. At least we didnt sign another soft tossing low k starting pitcher

[Rosterman]

Royals also signed P.J. Walters to a minor league contract! Looks like Bruce Chen will finally be available to the Twins! Add him to the Duensing and Swarzak for rotation mix!

[snepp]

Good. At least we didnt sign another soft tossing low k starting pitcher

 

 

And Vargas would have had the highest k-rate in the Twins rotation last year. 6.5 per 9 isn't all that great, but it's at least respectable.

[Trevor0333]

Idk, that is pretty bad for Vargas. Maybe 3/20 but 4/32 is tough to swallow. If you have to overpay in years & $ go big not for replacement level rubble.

[John Bonnes]

Well, Vargas isn't Correia. Vargas is to Correia as Nolasco is to Vargas. And Nolasco is going to get $12M+ per year.

 

I'm not disappointed that the Twins didn't get Vargas, and I'm not really all that alarmed by the money. What's puzzling me is how there is interest this early in a guy without much stuff. THis is going to be the offseason of innings eaters.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not disappointed that the Twins didn't get Vargas, and I'm not really all that alarmed by the money. What's puzzling me is how there is interest this early in a guy without much stuff. THis is going to be the offseason of innings eaters.

 

Well, you sort of hit on it -- Vargas has actually been a really good innings eater. He missed some starts early last year due to a blood clot, but came back just as his normal self, which is a consistent 205 IP league average starter. On the market this year, that level of "innings eating" is probably only matched by Ervin Santana (arguably the #1 free agent pitcher) and Bronson Arroyo (who is 37 years old). The Twins haven't had a starter hit those levels in Target Field besides Pavano.

 

In fact, even with the early career bouncing around he did, Vargas is only 30 years old. He's not dissimilar to Jeremy Guthrie, who got a 3/25 contract at age 33 last offeason (caveat: also from the Royals).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Question: if your options were Vargas at 4/32 or no one signed this offseason, which would you pick?

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, MLBTR pegged Vargas at 3/28.5. I'd say 4/32 is actually a better deal, compared to that.

[Monkeypaws]

Well, Vargas isn't Correia. Vargas is to Correia as Nolasco is to Vargas. And Nolasco is going to get $12M+ per year.

 

I'm not disappointed that the Twins didn't get Vargas, and I'm not really all that alarmed by the money. What's puzzling me is how there is interest this early in a guy without much stuff. THis is going to be the offseason of innings eaters.

 

Wasn't that a sequel to Night of the Living Dead?

[Rosterman]

4 for $32 is not a bad deal. He could've gone for 3 and $30, or 2 and $22 with an option. You have to look at what monies he is eating up in the next and following seasons.

 

Right now, the Twins don't have as big of an issue in that regard as other teams, with three salaries coming off the books in 2015 that would allow them to sign a free agent or two (especially if they win and increase revenue) and a light load of non-arbitration players for at least three more seasons with no one of real importance (on the current roster) entering the free agency era for quite a few years.

[jokin]

4 for $32 is not a bad deal. He could've gone for 3 and $30, or 2 and $22 with an option. You have to look at what monies he is eating up in the next and following seasons.

 

Right now, the Twins don't have as big of an issue in that regard as other teams, with three salaries coming off the books in 2015 that would allow them to sign a free agent or two (especially if they win and increase revenue) and a light load of non-arbitration players for at least three more seasons with no one of real importance (on the current roster) entering the free agency era for quite a few years.

 

Yup. Nice to have a veteran able to consistently go deep in games over the next 4 years to pick up for the rookies and their inconsistencies.

[jokin]

Question: if your options were Vargas at 4/32 or no one signed this offseason, which would you pick?

 

I'm afraid of the consensus answer because of all the denial going on around here, but consider this:

 

Vargas was placed on waivers, August 1, 2012, and was actively being shopped around by the M's, at least partially for salary relief in the midst of another miserable season for the Mariners. Trevor Plouffe had been on the DL for 10 days, after being the hottest power hitter in baseball in June and July. Vargas was making $4.85M in 2012 and due to make $8.5M in 2013 in the final year of his contract (So his "number" of dollars/year has actually dropped with his new contract!). Plouffe was playing for league minimum with first year Super2. Plouffe's career L/R split would have perfectly complimented Kyle Seager's reverse split at 3rd Base- and given the M's an opportunity to see if Plouffe could also be a Super-Util role guy.

 

If dollars were less of a concern for Seattle- and moreso for the Twins- Josh Willingham was having a stellar year with still 2 years left on his contract @ $7M/yr (The M's ended up trading Vargas for DH Kendrys Morales in December 2012). What teams would have been standing in the way of either one of these potential deals? IIRC, none. The Twins could have offered an extension similar or in the neighborhood to the Royals offer, without competition, to Vargas anytime during 2013.

 

Even with Vargas's injury and DL trip (9 starts lost), he still would have been the Twins best SP this season:

 

Vargas 2013 WAR: 1.8

Correia 2013 WAR: 1.6

Deduno 2013 WAR: 1.5

Pelfrey 2013 WAR: -0.3

Diamond 2013 WAR: -1.0

 

The Twins have to face the fact that $8M/yr is the going rate for a guy with a career ERA just over 4.00, and a career ERA+ just under 100, who annually has a fighting chance to give you 200 innings. Nice 4/5 guy for the Royals, in the long run would have been very nice in the same role for the Twins.

[drivlikejehu]

I'm not sad the Twins missed out. Vargas is good for eating some innings at the back end of a solid rotation, but he's just not that far above replacement level. The Royals don't seem like all that great of a fit to me, though the contract itself is reasonable.