Randball's take on salary

[Guest USAFChief]

Mike Rand's (STrib) take on baseball salaries in general, and what it might mean for the Twins.

 

Friday (How much does payroll matter in MLB?) edition: Wha' Happened? | RandBall | StarTribune.com

[raindog]

I would like to read a long term review of payroll and how it correlates with playoff success, but I don't doubt what Rand is saying is true.

[nicksaviking]

I would like to read a long term review of payroll and how it correlates with playoff success, but I don't doubt what Rand is saying is true.

 

How long is long term? Because until about 20 years ago small budget teams and big budget teams didn't have the gulf that they do now, players just weren't making that much more than each other and maybe more importantly, good players were often hidden due to the lack of more in-depth metrics and were not paid accordingly. Until the mid 1990's batters generally got paid based on batting average and HR, pitchers for Wins and ERA.

[Nick Nelson]

I think the problem with a lot of these payroll dissertations is that they're too generalized. In general, teams can win with low payrolls, but they need to develop well to get that point and the Twins have not done so. You have to spend on the open market when you've failed to build up a solid base through your own system, and that's the situation the Twins are in. The A's can win with a $65 million payroll, the Twins cannot, at least not in the near future.

[nicksaviking]

I think the problem with a lot of these payroll dissertations is that they're too generalized. In general, teams can win with low payrolls, but they need to develop well to get that point and the Twins have not done so. You have to spend on the open market when you've failed to build up a solid base through your own system, and that's the situation the Twins are in. The A's can win with a $65 million payroll, the Twins cannot, at least not in the near future.

 

I agree with this, but I think the overall question of the article actually is "Are the A's and Ray's actually winning?" Because they are not taking home the championship, once they get to the post season, they fail as the big clubs can match up their high priced and more proven assets against the traditionally young home-grown guys.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I agree with this, but I think the overall question of the article actually is "Are the A's and Ray's actually winning?" Because they are not taking home the championship, once they get to the post season, they fail as the big clubs can match up their high priced and more proven assets against the traditionally young home-grown guys.

 

Good point. The A's have won 1 post-season series since the mid-1990s. That's no better than another team many of us follow.

[Alex]

=.... and maybe more importantly, good players were often hidden due to the lack of more in-depth metrics and were not paid accordingly. Until the mid 1990's batters generally got paid based on batting average and HR,...

 

While this may certainly be true to some extent, there will always be value to be found on the dollar as money shifts and something else becomes over/underpaid. Probably not to the extent that teams were able to find hidden gems in the past, but there's only so much money to go around. That said, because I don't think the Twins are set up to be innovative right now, I don't have confidence in them finding that value any more.

[Marta Shearing]

Good point. The A's have won 1 post-season series since the mid-1990s. That's no better than another team many of us follow.

 

And both of those series victories were against each other.

[nicksaviking]

There has always been a gulf between the have and have not markets. Your statement on metrics and good players being hidden is laughable. Name me a few that were hidden.

 

Of course there has always been a gulf, I stated that it wasn't always so large. After all, between 1987 and 1992 the title of "Highest paid player" was held at different times by Frank Viola, Kirby Puckett, Ricky Henderson, Jose Canseco, Dave Stewart and Mark Davis. Those players were being paid by teams in Minnesota, Oakland and Kansas City. Your implication that the gulf was similarly large and affected the small market teams the same as now is absurd.

 

And your statement disregarding the idea that advanced statistics aren't helping players today receive larger contracts seems only aimed to be contentious. Shin So Choo is looking to get a monster payday based largely on his OBP which isn't any kind of advanced metric though would have been considered forward thinking back in 1988. His 1988 counterpart, Chet Lemon had the 134 highest paycheck in baseball.

[Rosterman]

It deals with player development and when you moves players out of your system. The other side of this is keeping players too long in the system, and then people get mad when you don't re-sign your own free agents. But, yes, you can win with a low budget ball, but at some point (which can happen) you might have to make the mid-season acquisition who will play for you in October and put you over. The Twins too long had the mindset that they just competed in their division, like winning the division and getting to the playoffs is enough. Yes, only one team can win the big ring. Eight teams go to the hunt and an additional two have a sudden death playoff spurt (anyone else tired of all the victory parties everytime you go up the ladder?). There is no bonafide way to win -- spend money, develop players, just plain old luck. But it does start with drafting and player development. It continues with grooming players, and getting guys from other systems who are blocked. You might have to overspend and keep someone beyond their time, or purchase big fro a season and eat the remainder. That is the game of baseball.

[ashbury]

Moderator's note: when we speak, in the Comments Policy, of treating others with respect, derision by using terms such as "laughable" is included. Even referring that way to a statement bleeds over to the person you're addressing. It's easy to adjust one's writing style to avoid that; please do.

[Kwak]

Some search for excuses for failure--and seize on payroll difference. Others search for a solution to find success and continue the struggle to find it.

[cmathewson]

We can do statistical analyses, as the Chief has done numerous times here. But there are a lot of variables unaccounted for in all those studies. And NikVik has a point: the larger the sample, the less relevant it is to the economics of today's game.

 

To me, there is one irrefutable fact: There are very few Verlanders to go around. The law of supply and demand implies that they will be very expensive. Only the top-tier teams can afford them as a matter of course.

 

Lower-tier teams can get them prior to their big payouts (Johan, e.g.). But not afterwards. So lower-tier teams will have to content themselves with having perhaps a chance in a decade at a championship and otherwise shooting for the playoffs, and only if they do everything else right. Upper-tier teams have a shot at a championship each year, if they do everything else right.

[old nurse]

We can do statistical analyses, as the Chief has done numerous times here. But there are a lot of variables unaccounted for in all those studies. And NikVik has a point: the larger the sample, the less relevant it is to the economics of today's game.

 

To me, there is one irrefutable fact: There are very few Verlanders to go around. The law of supply and demand implies that they will be very expensive. Only the top-tier teams can afford them as a matter of course.

 

Lower-tier teams can get them prior to their big payouts (Johan, e.g.). But not afterwards. So lower-tier teams will have to content themselves with having perhaps a chance in a decade at a championship and otherwise shooting for the playoffs, and only if they do everything else right. Upper-tier teams have a shot at a championship each year, if they do everything else right.

many posters have commented throughout the year that all a lower tiered team has to do for the high priced free agent is be the highest bidder as money is the motivating factor.

Longoria and Hernandez to name 2 stayed with smaller market teams rather than hit free agency. Small market teams can attract players.

[Major League Ready]

many posters have commented throughout the year that all a lower tiered team has to do for the high priced free agent is be the highest bidder as money is the motivating factor.

Longoria and Hernandez to name 2 stayed with smaller market teams rather than hit free agency. Small market teams can attract players.

 

To be fair, retention of an existing player is significantly different than signing an actual free agent, especially when they are extended well in advance of becoming a free agent. Players in those cases are eliminating the risk of injury. When the choice is signing a contract that has you set for the rest of your life vs assuming the risk of waiting for free agency.

 

There are just so few elite players that actually make it to free agency. The list below is from the past few years. If we look back at the past few years, it is very difficult to argue that it is very difficult for teams outside the top half in terms of revenue to land a marque free agent.

 

Zack Grienke LAD

Josh Hamilton LAA

Albert Pujlos LAA

CJ Wilson LAA

Yu Darvish TEX

Adrian Beltre TEX

J. Papelbon PHI

Cliff Lee PHI

Prince Fielder DET

Victor Martinez DET

Adam Dunn CWS

Jason Bay NYM

Matt Holliday STL

Carl Crawford BOS

John Lackey BOS

Jose Reyes FL

Mark Buehrle FL

 

 

The Marlins landed Reyes and Buehrle in whatever you want to call what went on that year with the Marlins. I am pretty sure the plan was that if they were not contending right away (generating $$) to jettison those players for prospects. That's a pretty effective way to add a bunch of young talent to your system. Nick Swisher in Cleveland is one you could argue either way in terms of his status. I doubt anyone else was going to give him $14M/yr so there is proof that a slightly above average player can be signed by over paying.

 

The next tier, let's say top 11-25 is probably a different story. Those guys are definitely more attainable by teams outside the top revenue markets.

[Shane Wahl]

Contentious? I suppose if I find you make a preposterous statement and comment negatively about it you would find it contentious.

 

"Preposterous statement," huh?

[JB_Iowa]

Another take on the salary issue: Cardinals, Dodgers, Red Sox, Tigers prove payrolls still matter - MLB - Ben Reiter - SI.com

 

I had read the Jaffe article on payroll equality earlier so it was nice to see SI do a follow-up on advancing in the playoffs.

[ashbury]

Mod note: Stop the sniping. Everyone.