Don't trade prospects

[snepp]

You mean like intentionally derailing a thread in order to complain about the site's moderation?

 

 

Just to make sure there's no additional confusion here, get back on topic, or take it to PM's.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

What snepp said. Without delving into details to derail the discussion further, I don't moderate much here anymore so you're barking up the wrong tree. I'm busy on the technical side of the site and rarely post anymore so if you have issues with the moderation, I suggest you talk to Glunn via PM and do not derail a public conversation.

[old nurse]

You know we go way back and I respect you Brock, but this line is becoming increasingly unclear. A lot less than that has been grounds for private messages.

 

As to this issue, I'm not so sure what the angst is about. Ryan has no track record of dealing significant prospects at all. So there is no past success or failure that anyone should be worried about because, if history has taught us anything, this is a problem we won't have to worry about.

 

The question was trading prospects, not significant ones. Ryan has traded prospects before with good results. Some meh results. No real we screwed ourselves results in giving up prospects. Besides, I thought a good GM was suposed to turn nothing prospects into players.

[TheLeviathan]

The question was trading prospects, not significant ones. Ryan has traded prospects before with good results. Some meh results. No real we screwed ourselves results in giving up prospects. Besides, I thought a good GM was suposed to turn nothing prospects into players.

 

What good results has he had? (I mean that honestly, I'm having trouble remembering a prospect being dealt. Castillo maybe?)

 

And what insignificant prospects do you expect to get value for?

[snepp]

What good results has he had? (I mean that honestly, I'm having trouble remembering a prospect being dealt. Castillo maybe?)

 

 

Would you consider Kielty a "prospect"? Not really I suppose, he had 750ish PA's at that point.

[TheLeviathan]

Would you consider Kielty a "prospect"? Not really I suppose, he had 750ish PA's at that point.

 

Right, that was a good deal, but it wasn't a prospect he moved there. It was a young MLB player.

[richardkr34]

If the Rays would take a package of Perkins, Rosario, Berrios, Harrison, and Kepler for Price, I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

 

Payroll commitments in Twins Territory are going to be low from 2015 onward, when they'd have to pay Price.

[Mr. Brooks]

Actual obligations are lower, at 46 million. If the Twins only made move within the organization this offseason the payroll would be in that ballpark(68 is 2-3 million or so high imo).

 

Not really, the league minimum is roughly 500k. Even if they bring back all their ARB eligible guys, then fill out the rest with league minimum guys, that only brings them up to $57 or $58 million.

[Oldgoat_MN]

....

And if our better coaches are not at the higher levels ....

 

Hmmm...

[Oxtung]

If the Rays would take a package of Perkins, Rosario, Berrios, Harrison, and Kepler for Price, I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

 

Payroll commitments in Twins Territory are going to be low from 2015 onward, when they'd have to pay Price.

 

They wouldn't. Look at the package Shields commanded. However, even if they did, why would Price agree to an extension with the Twins? Why wouldn't he just wait it out the two years until free agency arrived? On a related topic, do we know that Ryan would be comfortable committing the dollars and years that would be necessary to locking up a player like Price? He was either unable or unwilling to shell out for Hunter, Santana, Mauer and Morneau. Those were "home grown" players too. It's not at all clear to me that Ryan would be comfortable enough to even make a prospect for superstar trade that would then require a significant financial commitment to keep said star.

[cmb0252]

While I prefer to hold onto our prospects, due to the fact we have holes everywhere, you have to explore every possibility to get better. I dislike this FA agency class quite a bit so trading prospects might be our only chance to get a true impact pitcher.

[richardkr34]

They wouldn't. Look at the package Shields commanded. However, even if they did, why would Price agree to an extension with the Twins? Why wouldn't he just wait it out the two years until free agency arrived? On a related topic, do we know that Ryan would be comfortable committing the dollars and years that would be necessary to locking up a player like Price? He was either unable or unwilling to shell out for Hunter, Santana, Mauer and Morneau. Those were "home grown" players too. It's not at all clear to me that Ryan would be comfortable enough to even make a prospect for superstar trade that would then require a significant financial commitment to keep said star.

 

They got Shields and Davis for, essentially, Myers. This is a cheap, proven, dependable closer, an almost-ready top 50 prospect, two top 100 prospects, and a projectable power bat. And in two years, with Perk gone, the Twins would have Mauer and little else on the payroll. Shields would be 30 and could ask for, at most, six years. They could afforded it, and the Rays would listen. Just because the Royals made a stupid trade doesn't mean the other 29 teams would do the same.

[Oxtung]

They got Shields and Davis for, essentially, Myers. This is a cheap, proven, dependable closer, an almost-ready top 50 prospect, two top 100 prospects, and a projectable power bat. And in two years, with Perk gone, the Twins would have Mauer and little else on the payroll. Shields would be 30 and could ask for, at most, six years. They could afforded it, and the Rays would listen. Just because the Royals made a stupid trade doesn't mean the other 29 teams would do the same.

 

First, Price is younger, has 3 years of control not 2, a better pitcher than James Shields and as such will cost more.

 

Second, Davis was a salary dump. You also forgot to include Odorizzi, a top 100 pitcher and Mike Montgomery who was a top 50 prospect in 2011. So in essence the Rays got $8MM in salary relief, top 5 and 100 prospects, and a potential bounce back flier with very high upside. That is considerably more that "just Myers."

 

Third, the Rays don't value closers. They prefer to sign old veterans on the cheap so Perkins isn't the chip you are implying.

 

So, you're offering Perkins, a player they don't value, Rosario (top 100 prospect), Berrios (top 150), and 2 fliers. There is just no way they take that for one of the best pitchers in the game and in his prime.

 

If you're looking to build a package for Price you have to start with Sano or Buxton. Then include another top 100 prospect (Rosario or Meyer) and either Berrios or Trevor May. Toss in some fliers like Harrison or Kepler to make the deal even out. That is essentially what Shields cost so the Rays might want more.

 

That is too much since we aren't currently competitive, don't know that Ryan would do what it would take to sign Price long term and we aren't sure that Price would be interested in signing for a team that is likely to be bad during the negotiations, IMO.

[gunnarthor]

On a related topic, do we know that Ryan would be comfortable committing the dollars and years that would be necessary to locking up a player like Price? He was either unable or unwilling to shell out for Hunter, Santana, Mauer and Morneau. Those were "home grown" players too. It's not at all clear to me that Ryan would be comfortable enough to even make a prospect for superstar trade that would then require a significant financial commitment to keep said star.

 

He signed Hunter, Mauer and Santana to longer deals that bought out some free agency years. (Hunter stayed with the Twins through his age 31 season). Also, those Twins teams had significant payroll issues that limit how much we compare to now.

 

And, realistically, Ryan will probably retire before any of these elite prospects are out of team control.

 

Oh, forgot, he also kept Radke here.

[TheLeviathan]

He signed Hunter, Mauer and Santana to longer deals that bought out some free agency years. (Hunter stayed with the Twins through his age 31 season). Also, those Twins teams had significant payroll issues that limit how much we compare to now.

 

And, realistically, Ryan will probably retire before any of these elite prospects are out of team control.

 

those are the easier deals because you have leverage advantage. This is simply a fact, but Ryan has never given more than 3 years to a FA or even an impending one. That trend has to stop.

[gunnarthor]

This is simply a fact, but Ryan has never given more than 3 years to a FA or even an impending one. That trend has to stop.

 

It is a fact but it might not be a relevant one b/c a different fact, Metrodome Twins payroll issues, significantly impacted Ryan's ability to do so.

[ThePuck]

On a related topic, do we know that Ryan would be comfortable committing the dollars and years that would be necessary to locking up a player like Price? He was either unable or unwilling to shell out for Hunter, Santana, Mauer and Morneau. Those were "home grown" players too. It's not at all clear to me that Ryan would be comfortable enough to even make a prospect for superstar trade that would then require a significant financial commitment to keep said star.

 

While he did spend give Hunter, Mauer and Santana contracts, none of them were for big money (as it pertains to baseball contracts)...all of them were for less than an average 10M a year. He made an offer to Hunter in August 2007 that he knew Hunter would turn down after not working a deal in the offseason prior to 2007, but that was mostly for show...not that he wouldn't have been happy if Hunter lost his mind and took it when he knew he could likely get more years somewhere else.

[ThePuck]

those are the easier deals because you have leverage advantage. This is simply a fact, but Ryan has never given more than 3 years to a FA or even an impending one. That trend has to stop.

 

We don't have the Metrodome financial issues anymore, so while it's a decent excuse for how things were run his first time around, not sure how it applies now....other to say we can't base his history of transactions on his previous time as GM because the financial landscape is different.

 

That's fine and dandy, but he has yet to adjust to the new money available...or so it seems. It seems that way because he considers the Willingham deal a huge deal. So, yeah, there's more money available...but having available money and actually spending the available money are two different things entirely.

 

In any event, this thread is about trading prospects. The question is, since we won't pay for quality FAs, and we have no real tradable talent on the MLB roster, how does a team get proven quality MLB pitching unless they are willing to trade some of that depth we have in the farm...depth, mind you, that hasn't proven a thing yet at the major league level...depth no one knows for sure how they'll work out.

[TheLeviathan]

It is a fact but it might not be a relevant one b/c a different fact, Metrodome Twins payroll issues, significantly impacted Ryan's ability to do so.

 

Those concerns have been gone for awhile now. How much longer does that excuse get to work? As I said...it has to change.

[nicksaviking]

He signed Hunter, Mauer and Santana to longer deals that bought out some free agency years. (Hunter stayed with the Twins through his age 31 season). Also, those Twins teams had significant payroll issues that limit how much we compare to now.

 

Oh, forgot, he also kept Radke here.

 

 

 

And each of those three could have been extended longer then they got. He bought out one (1) year of free agency for a 26-year-old left handed Cy Young Award winner. That's not exactly going out on a limb. Same with Mauer, the 23-year-old batting champ catcher.

 

Target Field may increase how much money Ryan can spend, but it's not going to make him feel more comfortable about handing out multi-year deals.

 

I'll give him Radke, that was a nice save.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you're looking to build a package for Price you have to start with Sano or Buxton. Then include another top 100 prospect (Rosario or Meyer) and either Berrios or Trevor May. Toss in some fliers like Harrison or Kepler to make the deal even out. That is essentially what Shields cost so the Rays might want more.

 

I think you're skewing a bit high but yeah, Price will cost a fortune.

 

But the Rays would have to be certifiably insane to not take Sano/Buxton and Meyer for Price. There is no shot in hell that another team could offer that package.

[ThePuck]

If you're looking to build a package for Price you have to start with Sano or Buxton. Then include another top 100 prospect (Rosario or Meyer) and either Berrios or Trevor May. Toss in some fliers like Harrison or Kepler to make the deal even out. That is essentially what Shields cost so the Rays might want more.

 

Would you be against the idea of Sano, Rosario, May and Kepler/Harrison for Price deal?

[gunnarthor]

And each of those three could have been extended longer then they got. He bought out one (1) year of free agency for a 26-year-old left handed Cy Young Award winner. That's not exactly going out on a limb. Same with Mauer, the 23-year-old batting champ catcher.

 

Target Field may increase how much money Ryan can spend, but it's not going to make him feel more comfortable about handing out multi-year deals.

 

I'll give him Radke, that was a nice save.

 

Well, Mauer is still here and Hunter stuck around through the traditional prime years and was able to get a large FA contract. Same with Santana. Takes two to tango. Extending guys in their arbitration years is a fantastic way to get value for money since the team has leverage over the player. (And I believe the Twins got two of Santana's FA years). Most agents want the security of a contract over the arb years but don't want to limit the FA years. I don't know if Santana or Hunter would have nec agreed to an extra year on their extensions.

 

And was Santana's extension a bad deal? It took him through his age 29 season (Mets ripped up his last year and gave him a new contract but he was signed to be with us through 2008). He's had a few good years since then but nothing close to what they would've been paying him to be (and that also assumes he continued to pitch well in the AL).

[gunnarthor]

Those concerns have been gone for awhile now. How much longer does that excuse get to work? As I said...it has to change.

 

He's only been GM for two offseasons and the team has been so bad that free agency isn't the fix.

[twinsfan34]

Except that most players on the 40-man but not on the 25-man won't get major minimum, since they won't be in the major leagues. I think they are guaranteed about $70K/year if they have any MLB experience and about half that if they don't.

 

so 15 guys...at $70k. $850k. Assuming we sign no one for anything other than the MLB minimum after that. 19 guys at $500k gives us $9.5M...so $10.35M assuming we sign only minimum salary contracts.

 

$57 million....bare minimum.

[LaBombo]

He's only been GM for two offseasons and the team has been so bad that free agency isn't the fix.

That's absolutely true when you don't sign any free agents.

 

Few people expect free agency to "fix" the 2014 Twins. But quite a few still expect the front office to fill at least one rotation spot with a free agent pitcher who has at least a chance to be better than what they have.

[cmb0252]

Those concerns have been gone for awhile now. How much longer does that excuse get to work? As I said...it has to change.

 

The excuse might not work on FA signings but I see no reason why it wouldn't work on impending FAs. Ryan hasn't had anyone really worthy of throwing big money too since coming back. While the argument can be made for Cuddyer no one was making that argument last year and who knows if we will after next season.

 

Smith was the one who didn't sign Torii and traded Santana. The organization reportedly offered Torii a 3 year $45 million contract which was blow away by the Angels and offered Santana 4 year $80 million extension before trading him (Santana gave the Mets ~600 great innings and 117 bad innings for $132 million). Twins did sign Nathan, Mauer, and Morny to big deals with that Target Field money.

 

Back to the main topic. When you have lost 95+ games three seasons in a row you have to explore every possibility. Sano+ for Price is an interesting scenario depending on if Price would sign an extension with us.

[TheLeviathan]

He's only been GM for two offseasons and the team has been so bad that free agency isn't the fix.

 

Pits a trend that goes a ways back and is supported by public comments about not liking long contracts. At some point the mentality has to change as a way to improve and retain talent. You have hope that it will, I have skepticism because it never has. Time will tell.

[gunnarthor]

Pits a trend that goes a ways back and is supported by public comments about not liking long contracts. At some point the mentality has to change as a way to improve and retain talent. You have hope that it will, I have skepticism because it never has. Time will tell.

 

Maybe, maybe not. But when Smith was GM, the team did spend money. Whether or not they spent it well is a different matter.

[gunnarthor]

That's absolutely true when you don't sign any free agents.

 

Few people expect free agency to "fix" the 2014 Twins. But quite a few still expect the front office to fill at least one rotation spot with a free agent pitcher who has at least a chance to be better than what they have.

 

Well, that won't be too hard. Heck, you could correctly say that they did that last year when they signed Correia as he was better than what they had.