Buxton the last month (22 games)

[amjgt]

BA - .395

OBP - .495

SLG - .616

OPS - 1.111

SB - 16

wRC+ - 226

 

:shoot:

[wagwan]

amazing AA next year and Twins roster in sept

[jokin]

BA - .395

OBP - .495

SLG - .616

OPS - 1.111

SB - 16

wRC+ - 226

 

:shoot:

 

Thanks for the update. More evidence demonstrating that Buck's silencing remaining doubters, he's clearly made his adjustments to High A ball, overcome a nagging injury.... and is now ready to climb the next baseball mountain. I hope the Twins are wise enough to assign him to his next mountain and tab him for AFL play. No secret that a lot of us are all-in on the kid, but anyone with a Buxton mancrush has plenty of justification on his side. This kid is driven to fully use his God-given talents, staying focused on the big picture, no ego-confusion like some of the other Twins rising stars are still coping with..... and he has the special knack that all big-timers have to frequently rise to the occasion when most needed. I expect we'll see another quantum jump in his development next spring, inevitably forcing the issue on the Twins by summer, 2014.

 

The club has never seen anything like him athletically. Ben Revere, he of deadly smile and pop-gun arm and bat, was famous for the BEST feature of his game, blazing speed, as he had 44 SBs at age 20 in a full year of low-A ball....and 45 SBs at age 21 in a full year of high-A ball. Buxton has 52 SB on the year so far at age 19, combined (2 steals of 3rd last night)- with at least 13 games remaining on Ft Myers' schedule. And he doesn't even know all the proper techniques on HOW to steal bases yet- it's the WORST feature of his game, the only area of his game that he receives a low grade from evaluators.

[josecordoba]

I'm not sure if I agree with this position, but Marc Hulet mentioned last week that he would not send Buxton to the AFL. Hulet's point was to let Buxton's season end on a high note. Buxton will be making a big step up next spring to NB. Hulet thought that Buxton would be better spent resting and working out to get ready for this move.

[cmathewson]

Thanks for the update. More evidence demonstrating that Buck's silencing remaining doubters, he's clearly made his adjustments to High A ball, overcome a nagging injury.... and is now ready to climb the next baseball mountain. I hope the Twins are wise enough to assign him to his next mountain and tab him for AFL play. No secret that a lot of us are all-in on the kid, but anyone with a Buxton mancrush has plenty of justification on his side. This kid is driven to fully use his God-given talents, staying focused on the big picture, no ego-confusion like some of the other Twins rising stars are still coping with..... and he has the special knack that all big-timers have to frequently rise to the occasion when most needed. I expect we'll see another quantum jump in his development next spring, inevitably forcing the issue on the Twins by summer, 2014.

 

The club has never seen anything like him athletically. Ben Revere, he of deadly smile and pop-gun arm and bat, was famous for the BEST feature of his game, blazing speed, as he had 44 SBs at age 20 in a full year of low-A ball....and 45 SBs at age 21 in a full year of high-A ball. Buxton has 52 SB on the year so far at age 19, combined (2 steals of 3rd last night)- with at least 13 games remaining on Ft Myers' schedule. And he doesn't even know all the proper techniques on HOW to steal bases yet- it's the WORST feature of his game, the only area of his game that he receives a low grade from evaluators.

 

All this is supremely impressive. One stat that stands out is the triples--16(!). That's Guzman speed.

[TRex]

Perhaps this is as good a place as any to have this discussion... as noted by jokin above, Buxton stole 3rd base twice last night.

 

I am a little conflicted overall about steals of 3rd base. While stealing 3rd base is supposed to be easier than second, the overall risk is higher because getting a runner in from 2nd is much easier than from first. However, some players (e.g. Billy Hamilton and Ricky Henderson before that) are really able to ?padded? their SB numbers with steals of third. There is also a significant risk associated with stealing any base (e.g. jammed fingers) and my biggest concern for Buxton's development is health, so I had been watching Buxton's stats for a long while and this is the first time I can recall him stealing 3rd. Does this seem correct to others... can you recall anything from his time at CR SDBuhr?

[Badsmerf]

Having 52 SB he has almost certainly stole 3rd more than twice.

 

I'm on board with letting the kid rest (along with Sano). The baseball season is long, and this is his first full season. I'm sure by the end of it he will be tired. Offseasons are huge IMO. That is where he can make gains in the weight room and heal nagging injuries, some of which might take months.

 

It all depends on the player though. I have confidence that Buxton would make good choices over the winter to improve as a player. If management doesn't share that opinion it might be better to throw someone in a league to keep them occupied and out of trouble.

[cmathewson]

Perhaps this is as good a place as any to have this discussion... as noted by jokin above, Buxton stole 3rd base twice last night.

 

I am a little conflicted overall about steals of 3rd base. While stealing 3rd base is supposed to be easier than second, the overall risk is higher because getting a runner in from 2nd is much easier than from first. However, some players (e.g. Billy Hamilton and Ricky Henderson before that) are really able to ?padded? their SB numbers with steals of third. There is also a significant risk associated with stealing any base (e.g. jammed fingers) and my biggest concern for Buxton's development is health, so I had been watching Buxton's stats for a long while and this is the first time I can recall him stealing 3rd. Does this seem correct to others... can you recall anything from his time at CR SDBuhr?

 

It's situational. If he's on second with less than 2 outs, stealing third is a good option. Otherwise, not. One reason he hasn't stolen third much is he has almost as many triples as doubles. Why steal third when you can take it on hits that would otherwise be doubles?

[Shane Wahl]

I wouldn't send him to the AFL. That place is often for some players who we might have legitimate doubts about at least one aspect of their game. Not the case for Buxton. He starts at AA next year and that is fine with me.

[Mike Sixel]

I also would not AFL him.....give him some time off....send him to AA next year....keep him going.

[amjgt]

I forgot to mention, in those 22 games, he has gotten on base at least twice in 18 of them

[MichiganTwins]

Beast.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

In my mind, I've gone back and forth about whether or not sending Buxton to the AFL would be a good choice or bad choice.

 

On the negative side, I see a kid who is playing in his first year of full-season ball (where guys typically hit a wall), has exceeded all expections and, fingers-crossed, has remained healthy. Give him a break and be aggressive with his assignment to AA next year. It doesn't change his trajectory at all.

 

 

Also if he goes and doesn't perform well, does that affect his mental state for the next four months? Aaron Hicks got off to a hot start in the AFL in 2011 and then tired and wasn't very good. And he's a guy who had played a few years of full-season ball.

 

But Buxton isn't Hicks.

 

On the plus side of things, here's a guy who has proven to fit in the rarest age-defying category of recent prospects. Guys like Harper and Trout. Harper played in the AFL at 18 and 19. Trout played soon after turning 20. (Buxton turns 20 shortly after the season concludes.) Like those two, there is a good chance that he will fit right in and maybe exceed expectations again.

 

Of course, even if that happens does that change his path? I've said for the good part of four months that Buxton's path will lead him to the Futures Game in the Cities next July and that I think he will stick around after that game to start his Major League career. Would a good (or bad) AFL change those expectations? I can't imagine it would. If he tears it up, the Twins won't move him right to the majors anyway.

 

I'm guessing there has been plenty of internal debate - whether the Twins will admit it or not - and that the discussion ends when the Twins realize that there are better reasons to not send him than there are to send him.

[cmathewson]

I would not have thought it possible prior to the season for him to make the AFL (or the Futures Game, for that matter). But he seems ready to me. The AFL is like AA without the oldsters. There are plenty of raw guys with huge upside there, and he certainly would hold his own.

 

The only other concern is fatigue/injuries. Again, any other player I would say, go home and rest. But something tells me he can handle it. I recall an interview with TR in ST when he said (to paraphrase), he looks like he put on 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason and could run a marathon. He certainly isn't showing signs of fatigue. Far from it. So I would not be averse to challenging him. It could be a stepping stone experience that he can draw upon in AA next year. Worst case, he struggles and learns from it.

[jokin]

In my mind, I've gone back and forth about whether or not sending Buxton to the AFL would be a good choice or bad choice.

 

On the negative side, I see a kid who is playing in his first year of full-season ball (where guys typically hit a wall), has exceeded all expections and, fingers-crossed, has remained healthy. Give him a break and be aggressive with his assignment to AA next year. It doesn't change his trajectory at all.

 

 

Also if he goes and doesn't perform well, does that affect his mental state for the next four months? Aaron Hicks got off to a hot start in the AFL in 2011 and then tired and wasn't very good. And he's a guy who had played a few years of full-season ball.

 

But Buxton isn't Hicks.

 

On the plus side of things, here's a guy who has proven to fit in the rarest age-defying category of recent prospects. Guys like Harper and Trout. Harper played in the AFL at 18. Trout played soon after 20. (Buxton turns 20 shortly after the season concludes.) Like those two, there is a good chance that he will fit right in and maybe exceed expectations again.

 

Of course, even if that happens does that change his path? I've said for the good part of four months that Buxton's path will lead him to the Futures Game in the Cities next July and that I think he will stick around after that game to start his Major League career. Would a good (or bad) AFL change those expectations? I can't imagine it would. If he tears it up, the Twins won't move him right to the majors anyway.

 

I'm guessing there has been plenty of internal debate - whether the Twins will admit it or not - and that the discussion ends when the Twins realize that there are better reasons to not send him than there are to send him.

 

Great analysi, as usual Jeremy.

 

1) "Buxton isn't Hicks". This needs to be drilled and re-drilled into Twins fans' and Twins managements' heads. Buxton has at least twice the work ethic as Hicks- there's absolutely no sense of "entitlement" around him- a usually inevitable character trait of most ultra-talented people, at least 3X the talent of Hicks, 5X the internal drive to succeed and looks to be at least 10X faster at adjusting to new challenges and circumstances.

 

2) "On the plus side of things, here's a guy who has proven to fit in the rarest age-defying category of recent prospects. Guys like Harper and Trout. Harper played in the AFL at 18. Trout played soon after 20. " I've been arguing since spring training that Buck is more than talented enough to be on the Trout Timeline. As of now, Buck is exceeding what Trout did in his second year of pro ball, playing in the toughest A+ level league (although Trout was a year younger). Meanwhile, Harper put up comparatively pedestrian numbers while playing both A and AA in his first year of pro ball, that certainly didn't dissuade the Nats from calling up Harper to the big club. Unless Buxton is significantly banged up from all of his sliding and crashing into walls, his incredible work ethic, goal-driven, 19 year old body can only benefit from the new challenge in AA-AAA level of competition in the perfect playing conditions in Arizona.

 

3) "I've said for the good part of four months that Buxton's path will lead him to the Futures Game in the Cities next July and that I think he will stick around after that game to start his Major League career."

Agreed, it's what I've hoped the Twins have been shooting for all along, and they have Trout, Harper and Machado as examples to assure them that it won't be a disaster by doing so.. The gaping hole in CF for the Twins will still be gaping in July. Buck will be starting in CF after his Futures coronation in front of a record-breaking throng, and will immediately go to work thereafter in helping to re-energize and re-invigorate the club amidst yet another long, lackluster season.

 

 

4) "I'm guessing there has been plenty of internal debate - whether the Twins will admit it or not - and that the discussion ends when the Twins realize that there are better reasons to not send him than there are to send him."

 

Only health-related issues or time better spent working individually on strength and fundamentals qualify as reasons for not sending him. To me anyway, seeing live AA and AAA pitching for the first time in AZ and giving him a small leg up going into the spring, plus, learning more about dealing with the assembled national media as he would be prominently in the spotlight as the #1 prospect in all of baseball, would trump the negatives.

[ashbury]

Perhaps this is as good a place as any to have this discussion... as noted by jokin above, Buxton stole 3rd base twice last night.

 

Big deal. Germany Schaefer once stole 1st base; let's see Buxton try that.

 

As for the AFL or not, I don't think it matters either way, given that his character is supposed to be high so that he won't spend the winter watching Tosh.0 reruns and eating Cheetos.

[Mike Sixel]

Very unfair to question Hicks' work ethic, imo.

[jokin]

All this is supremely impressive. One stat that stands out is the triples--16(!). That's Guzman speed.

 

We've talked and gushed about it before at the time of the FSN game. Buck's triple that day has to be seen to be disbelived. Still on YouTube, he cruised into Third Base in a little over 10 seconds (Bo Jackson was supposedly fastest ever at around 11.5 seconds).

[jokin]

Very unfair to question Hicks' work ethic, imo.

 

I'm not questioning it specifically- just drawing logical conclusions about a guy 6 years into his professional career- still with holes big enough in his game to drive a truck through. It's certainly not personal, just a pointed point on how rare a guy like Buxton is. Talented guys in general, generally don't see the need to work hard. By the same token, we've never read an article or quote from Hicks related to how hard he works and his internal motivations to succeed like we have about Buxton

[MichiganTwins]

However, Buxton seems to have a lot more talent than Hicks. I still believe in Hicks, but it is doing no good comparing him and his struggles to the dominance of possibly the best prospect in Twins history. Hicks also was never the number one overall prospect.

[Larsbars08]

A couple nitpicks:

 

The only real negative trend has been that his ISO has gone down a bunch since his promotion to A+. I'm guessing it has more to do with the large stadiums in the Florida State League. Hammond Stadium, where the Miracle play is an awful park for right-handed power hitters (according to park factors). Sano's 80 power made short work of it, but Buxton's power is still developing.

 

His K% spiked when he was first promoted, but since then, he's been taking a lot more walks, and the K% is falling.

 

I'm eager to see how he responds to his first offseason after a full season of baseball. Every profile I've ever seen has trumpeted his character and work ethic, so I doubt he'll slack. I've got a soft spot for Miguel Sano, because his signing was what got me interested in prospect watching, but at this point, I've got a huge mancrush on Buxton. I would have been happy with Correa, but Buxton is absolutely incredible. Thank you Houston.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not questioning it specifically- just drawing logical conclusions about a guy 6 years into his professional career- still with holes big enough in his game to drive a truck through. It's certainly not personal, just a pointed point on how rare a guy like Buxton is. Talented guys in general, generally don't see the need to work hard. By the same token, we've never read an article or quote from Hicks related to how hard he works and his internal motivations to succeed like we have about Buxton

 

 

could not disagree more, elite players are elite because they are athletes, and because they work hard, not because they "don't see the need to work hard".

 

And, lack of articles about someone does not imply that it isn't happening. More importantly, we've never read that Hicks is not a hard worker.

 

This team is HYPING Buxton, so you are reading every positive thing you can about him. They have such little else to sell to us right now.....

[jokin]

could not disagree more, elite players are elite because they are athletes, and because they work hard, not because they "don't see the need to work hard".

 

And, lack of articles about someone does not imply that it isn't happening. More importantly, we've never read that Hicks is not a hard worker.

 

This team is HYPING Buxton, so you are reading every positive thing you can about him. They have such little else to sell to us right now.....

 

Couldn't disagree more, and I usually agree with you. The team isn't hyping Buxton much at all. The hype he's getting is largely coming from the national media outlets, and mostly because Buxton appears to deserve the hype he's receiving. This has been an ongoing and well-documented story line about the kid's make-up and Georgia small school country-boy ways back from at least a year before the 2012 draft And I'm not just reading every positive thing about him, it's just that so much of what he's about is positive in nature. Certainly, he has weak spots in his game and maturity issues that he will have to overcome.

 

You are just wrong about elite athletes (in general). I have been around, played with and coached them my entire life. It is by nature very difficult to instill the need to work harder in someone for whom something already comes easy. The ones who overcome the natural urges to coast (and head to Delmon Young-type careers) are the ones who become truly great. There are so many, many great athletes you never hear of because they flame out, are afraid of success, or afraid or too lazy to make the commitment to becoming, or staying, successful. (I've documented previously about a guy I knew in college who ended up pitching for the Giants for a couple years, he simply screwed around on his college team and had a very mediocre college career. He always had the talent and athleticism to be a big league pitcher, but he never once put in the extra time to maximize his full potential- had he worked harder during his developing years he certainly might have pitched in the big leagues for a lot longer than just 2 seasons).

 

Certainly there are a lack of articles about Hicks, and we've never read that he isn't a hard worker. But, he was a 1st round draft pick, anointed early on and California-cool and laid back. He has demonstrably been slow to adjust to each successive level of play, and this season, simultaneously exposed for all to see his incredible God-given natural athleticism and the holes in his game that 5 years of hard work (or the lack thereof) in the minor leagues still need refinement and even more work to fix.

 

I still have high hopes that Hicks can stick permanently next time around and I'm most certainly not hating on him. If you are a fan of his, I understand where you're coming from, and I think we all want to see him succeed to the utmost level of his ceiling. I am hoping to read an article this winter on how hard Hicks is working and has learned a most valuable lesson on preparedness from his first go-round in the big time.

[drjim]

Very unfair to question Hicks' work ethic, imo.

 

Yes. That is quite the smear if there is nothing to back it up.

[Celebrity Weddings!]

It's certainly not personal

 

To clear matters up, questioning somebody's work ethic is definitely personal.

 

The continued difficulties in Hicks' development have, in all likelihood, occurred for the same reason that the vast majority of prospects don't develop or develop really slowly:

 

baseball is hard

 

You don't know Aaron Hicks or anything about how hard he works. Making assumptions based on his MLB success is deeply uncharitable.

[PseudoSABR]

Certainly there are a lack of articles about Hicks, and we've never read that he isn't a hard worker. But, he was a 1st round draft pick, anointed early on and California-cool and laid back. He has demonstrably been slow to adjust to each successive level of play, and this season, simultaneously exposed for all to see his incredible God-given natural athleticism and the holes in his game that 5 years of hard work (or the lack thereof) in the minor leagues still need refinement and even more work to fix.

Drawing any conclusion about Hick's work ethic from his observable career is totally specious and speculative, dude. And while this is just more speculation from me, I seriously doubt the Twins would start a rookie in CF who skipped AAA if he had work ethic problems.

[jokin]

A couple nitpicks:

 

The only real negative trend has been that his ISO has gone down a bunch since his promotion to A+. I'm guessing it has more to do with the large stadiums in the Florida State League. Hammond Stadium, where the Miracle play is an awful park for right-handed power hitters (according to park factors). Sano's 80 power made short work of it, but Buxton's power is still developing.

 

His K% spiked when he was first promoted, but since then, he's been taking a lot more walks, and the K% is falling.

 

I'm eager to see how he responds to his first offseason after a full season of baseball. Every profile I've ever seen has trumpeted his character and work ethic, so I doubt he'll slack. I've got a soft spot for Miguel Sano, because his signing was what got me interested in prospect watching, but at this point, I've got a huge mancrush on Buxton. I would have been happy with Correa, but Buxton is absolutely incredible. Thank you Houston.

 

Good post. The really good ones make quick adjustments. Buck's proven he's a quick study, as he has made multiple quick adjustments at 2 levels with his in-season promotion. Kids this age, with this ability, but especially this aptitude, can simply explode in their performance level from one year to the next, which is why I hope they keep the developmental pedal to the medal (provided he's really 100% healthy).

 

And you're spot-on about the FSL- it's not a place for faint-of-heart baseball-hitting egos. Sano laid some nice statistical groundwork to prove it isn't impossible, even at a tender age, to put up big numbers in this pitcher's league. I'm pretty skeptical in general on prospects. Mauer was the one guy I saw locally in high school who we all knew was special. Buxton is in the same category- not hype for Mauer, not hype for Buck, they're both the real deal.

[jokin]

Drawing any conclusion about Hick's work ethic from his observable career is totally specious and speculative, dude. And while this is just more speculation from me, I seriously doubt the Twins would start a rookie in CF who skipped AAA if he had work ethic problems.

 

Speculating about my own admitted speculation, and then wildly speculating on how and why the Twins came about starting Hicks in CF is what's specious.

 

I never said that Hicks had "work ethic problems". I did say we've never heard about Hicks and how hard he worked, except in terms that he frequently had underperformed in the minors and had dropped out of the Top 100 rankings and possibly as a legit prospect. His performance in 2013 has shown that there are significant areas of his game that need a lot more work, work that many assured had already been completed in his 5 year minor league sojourn- in Spring Training, he was deemed "Major League Ready". Does anyone still hold that opinion? I said that Buxton's work ethic is off the charts, that he is adapting and adjusting quickly to new challenges, and by contrast, that whatever work Hicks has put in over the last 5 years has obviously not been enough- somehow you find those facts "specious and speculative"? Hicks no doubt has worked hard to catch up after continued initial struggles at each successive level. Perhaps he'll work harder and smarter in the upcoming offseason now that he knows how far behind he is in becoming a permanent full-time major leaguer.

 

And what's with the "dude" and "specious" attack characterizations? Clearly a personal attack in violation of the TD policies. Please take a chill pill.

[jokin]

To clear matters up, questioning somebody's work ethic is definitely personal.

 

The continued difficulties in Hicks' development have, in all likelihood, occurred for the same reason that the vast majority of prospects don't develop or develop really slowly:

 

baseball is hard

 

You don't know Aaron Hicks or anything about how hard he works. Making assumptions based on his MLB success is deeply uncharitable.

 

I do know that whatever work he's put in hasn't been nearly enough for his given natural talent level. Baseball is hard. But it is easier for those with enormous athletic gifts like Hicks.

 

And my questioning and speculating is not personal. I don't even know tha man, how can it be personal? I do know what I see, and I see an exceptional athlete who needs to keep working just a little bit harder to maximize his full potential. It's not uncharitable at all, I have no doubt that he's receiving just such a "tough medicine" type of message in Rochester and from the Twins FO.

[jokin]

Yes. That is quite the smear if there is nothing to back it up.

 

Now my admitted speculation on Hicks relative to Buxton is "quite the smear"? If I had called him "lazy"- that would be a smear. Why is everything taken to absurd extremes on the internet?

 

Just to make it official: "Hicks is not lazy".