Which Twins Prospects Are Next in Line?

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, GopherMike said:

I've been waiting for this article.

“There’s a pretty good chance they’ll be moving some established major-league pieces over the next few weeks.”

"Some" is doing a lot of work here.....but I'm increasingly leaning towards "no there's not". 

Based on everything we know, that is not the most likely organizational direction. They are 48–49, tied for a Wild Card spot, ownership has publicly supported adding, and they have already made bullpen additions. They could trade a redundant player such as Bell or make a baseball trade involving surplus, but that is very different from treating the second half primarily as an evaluation period.

In general, I think this site (and probably Twins fans in general) are:

1) Too hasty to assume we will trade off every veteran or demote anyone not immediately producing
2) Too quick to assume everyone in AAA is genuinely ready or deserving a promotion

C.J. Culpepper is intriguing, but currently too flawed. He needs a full year in AAA. A 13% walk rate is not offset by saying he “finds ways to work himself out of trouble” and I don't see that happening nearly as much in the MLB until he figures out how to establish better command. We've already demoted more established veterans for the exact same reason. 

Ben Ross is intrguing and the versatility is real. But “confidently predict” is too strong because:

• He is 25 and not regarded as a major prospect.
• His Triple-A sample is still limited.
• He is not currently on the 40-man roster.
• Kreidler and Martin already offer defensive flexibility.
• Gray can be optioned rather than removed from the organization.
• Culpepper would probably receive priority if both are healthy and an infield opening develops.

I think he is a situational possibility if there are multiple injuries, but far from a sure thing.

Saying Rodriguez “would already have gotten a look if he weren’t hurt” feels too confident. His sample size is small and his strikeout rate is concerning. He has the power and athletic ability, so it's possible he gets that cup of coffee that Gonzalez got. But there's really no way to know. His sample size is super small. 

I actually like the names (and agree we will not see Walker Jenkins this year), but Culpepper is probably the only one on this list I would put at greater than 50% odds....and I'm still not even convinced he's currently more likely than another shot at Arcia if/when Gray goes down. 

Now go ahead and down vote me. 😀

A much welcomed view of reality - thanks!!

If Ross is a LH bat, have no idea, they might exchange he & Gray for a couple weeks to see if Gray can find patience at the plate in 14 days …….. not very likely. Arcia much more likely. Arcia may not be a bunch better than Gray with glove but he is better & after 10 years, he’s not going to wilt at MLB level.

Jenkins, Rodriguez, & C.J. are spot on & SS Culpepper needs to be healthy at AAA for weeks, not days, before getting a call ……. if in the race, I don’t see organization shaking things up more than just a Jeffers trade.

[nclahammer]

Ben Ross is electrifying, saw him play plenty of times in Cedar Rapids, IMHO he could be a viable option for that final bench spot as utility and pinch runner.

[twinstalker]

23 hours ago, GopherMike said:

I've been waiting for this article.

“There’s a pretty good chance they’ll be moving some established major-league pieces over the next few weeks.”

"Some" is doing a lot of work here.....but I'm increasingly leaning towards "no there's not". 

Based on everything we know, that is not the most likely organizational direction. They are 48–49, tied for a Wild Card spot, ownership has publicly supported adding, and they have already made bullpen additions. They could trade a redundant player such as Bell or make a baseball trade involving surplus, but that is very different from treating the second half primarily as an evaluation period.

In general, I think this site (and probably Twins fans in general) are:

1) Too hasty to assume we will trade off every veteran or demote anyone not immediately producing
2) Too quick to assume everyone in AAA is genuinely ready or deserving a promotion

C.J. Culpepper is intriguing, but currently too flawed. He needs a full year in AAA. A 13% walk rate is not offset by saying he “finds ways to work himself out of trouble” and I don't see that happening nearly as much in the MLB until he figures out how to establish better command. We've already demoted more established veterans for the exact same reason. 

Ben Ross is intrguing and the versatility is real. But “confidently predict” is too strong because:

• He is 25 and not regarded as a major prospect.
• His Triple-A sample is still limited.
• He is not currently on the 40-man roster.
• Kreidler and Martin already offer defensive flexibility.
• Gray can be optioned rather than removed from the organization.
• Culpepper would probably receive priority if both are healthy and an infield opening develops.

I think he is a situational possibility if there are multiple injuries, but far from a sure thing.

Saying Rodriguez “would already have gotten a look if he weren’t hurt” feels too confident. His sample size is small and his strikeout rate is concerning. He has the power and athletic ability, so it's possible he gets that cup of coffee that Gonzalez got. But there's really no way to know. His sample size is super small. 

I actually like the names (and agree we will not see Walker Jenkins this year), but Culpepper is probably the only one on this list I would put at greater than 50% odds....and I'm still not even convinced he's currently more likely than another shot at Arcia if/when Gray goes down. 

Now go ahead and down vote me. 😀

Yeah, EmRod's profile is not good, and I know people desperately want to ignore that.  Ben Ross is not doing anything at AAA.  People need to get used to the numbers.  Is he a great fielder or something?  If for some reason he would be promoted, he'd probably have to be DFA'd thereafter.

As much as I've liked CJ Culpepper the pitcher, he hasn't done a ton yet.  He's exactly the type who can relieve in the majors: he's was an intriguing starter whose arm just couldn't handle the innings required for starts.  But he's got to be better in his appearances.  MLB is more difficult, I've heard.

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

With the proposed changes by the owners and the response by the MLBPA, I would put the chances of games in April at less than 20%. 

That feels really high as a number

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I don't like the idea of holding back Culpepper or Jenkins.  If they are ready, then bring them up and find playing tine.  I suspect that Larnach or Bell will be traded to improve the Twins relief pitching.  Culpepper can play SS, 3rd or 2nd and plays most days either as a back up to the those positions or a starter elsewhere.  Obviously, the trade deadline influences these calls, but I don't want our promising youngsters held back.

They aren’t going to bring up Culpepper to fill Tristan Gray’s shoes. If he comes up he will be the starter. They aren’t going to start his clock to sit on the bench.

[Jeff K]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They aren’t going to bring up Culpepper to fill Tristan Gray’s shoes. If he comes up he will be the starter. They aren’t going to start his clock to sit on the bench.

I mostly agree with that.  My point is he will play pretty much every day, regardless of the two options.

[DocBauer]

Whether the Twins buy, sell, or do both, there's room for K-Pepper to debut as soon as he's healthy. With all due respect to Kreidler and Gray, the only thing preventing K-Pepper being up is his hip/glute injury that will hopefully be resolved soon. I'd guess his target date is now about August 1st. His promotion does nothing to disrupt the current Twins winning cycle. Gray goes back down for depth, and possible depth for 2027. (A big TBD there). And Kreidler goes back to being a pretty damn good Super Utility player for the roster.

CJ Culpepper reminds me of a better version of Jax, remembering who Jax WAS before his bullpen conversion. Similarly, they have/had multiple pitches to throw at the oposition. But I believe CJ, when healthy, showed more potential in MILB. CJ has had some injury problems that have held him back, despite good production. Rumor has it he's had a hard time maintaining velocity past a couple of IP. So his transition is understandable. And so far it's gone really well. I honestly believe he can debut as a 2 IP middle man who has the potential to be a late inning arm. But he's still fighting control a bit currently. I'd LOVE to see him in August to get his feet wet and get ready for 2027. And it might happen. But it also depends if the Twins make some BP trade moves. If that happens, his target is sometime in 2027. 

Ross was a fairly early 5th round pick from a small school who was a great athlete. Simply put, his BAT just hasn't translated to pro ball until this year. But what he HAS seemingly done is finally figuring stuff out after 4 1/2 seasons as a 25yo. He destroyed AA this season with a 1.324 OPS! Currently with St Paul, he has a really solid .846 OPS. While solid, it's not what you'd want from a top prospect. 

Except, he's not a TOP prospect. He's a very good, athletic, Super Utility player who can provide solid defense wherever he plays, with a potentially decent bat with speed and some power.

Remind you of anyone? Willi Castro debuted before age 25. But he didn't do much. It wasn't until he came to the Twins on a MILB deal as a 27yo before he took off. So is Ross another Fedko as a late development player? Or is he a younger player who started to figure it out similar to Castro?

I just think there's a really interesting parallel here. Fedko was a late round pick who the Twins stuck with, blossomed late in his career, got a cup of coffee, but the jury is still mixed if he has a ML future with the Twins or a different organization. 

Castro was promoted aggressively, maybe too early, and the Tigers bailed on him. The Twins got the benefit of their decision. 

Ross is between these two examples. He's a higher draft choice than Fedko, a little younger, and plays INF as well as OF. So he's more similar to Castro in regard to talent and utility. But Castro debuted with mediocre results before breaking through with the Twins.

I don't believe Ross will play for the Twins this season. Kreidler is blocking him, and deservedly so. But if Ross keeps playing good defense all over the place, and keeps hitting and producing the way he is, I think a 2027 debut is in his cards. I think he has a chance to be a Super Utility player with well rounded offensive contributions. But not this season.