Reviewing the Twins Daily Top-20 Prospects from 2021

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports (Graphic by Brock Beauchamp)

Prospect lists serve as both a roadmap and a reminder. They highlight what an organization hopes to become, while also documenting just how unpredictable baseball development can be. When Minnesota Twins fans looked at the top 20 prospects entering the 2021 season, the belief was that the next core of contention was already on the way.

Some of those players have delivered on that promise. Others have fallen short of even modest expectations. A few took entirely different paths than anyone could have envisioned at the time.

Outside the top 10, there were notable hits and misses as well. Bailey Ober checked in at 20th amid questions about his long-term upside, but has become a steady member of the rotation. Matt Wallner was ranked 13th and has likely exceeded what most projected when he joined the organization. Brent Rooker landed at 12th and eventually developed into a multi-time All-Star. Unfortunately for Minnesota, that growth happened elsewhere.

The back half of the top 10, by contrast, has not aged particularly well. Blayne Enlow, Matt Canterino, Aaron Sabato, Keoni Cavaco, and Jordan Balazovic each had intriguing ceilings on draft day. None managed to reach those lofty expectations in a Twins uniform, and collectively, they serve as a cautionary tale about betting on projection over polish.

Let’s look at Twins Daily’s top five from 2021 to see what was said at the time, and what has happened over the last five years.

5. RHP Jhoan Duran
What was said at the time: An intimidating force on the mound with high-90s heat. Will he start?

What happened: No, he did not start. In fact, the Twins moved him to the bullpen after making only five appearances in 2021. He became one of baseball’s most dominant closers. His fastball and splinker reached triple-digit velocities in shorter appearances, something that wasn’t hard to imagine when he started. His tenure in Minnesota ultimately ended when the club dealt him to the Philadelphia Phillies at last year’s trade deadline, in exchange for Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait.

4. C Ryan Jeffers
What was said at the time: Showed his value as a polished two-way asset in MLB breakthrough.

What happened: Jeffers has developed into an above-average hitter, especially when compared to others at his position across the league. Over the last three seasons, he's averaged a 113 OPS+, and his 117 wRC+ ranks second among AL catchers. Defense remains a question, but the Twins appear committed to giving him the bulk of the workload behind the plate in 2026, which will be his final season under team control.

3. OF Trevor Larnach
What was said at the time: Looks the part of a near-ready, well-rounded bat for the heart of the order.

What happened: Larnach’s offensive development hasn’t met the expectations he had as a first-round pick. He posted a 116 OPS+ in 2024, but saw that total dip to 99 in 2025, a rate of production that is unacceptable for a corner outfielder. Injuries and limited defensive value have complicated his role, and his name has consistently surfaced in trade rumors. He has become the embodiment of the post-hype prospect the Twins are waiting to take the next step.

2. SS Royce Lewis
What was said at the time: Twins believe he will stick at short. Stardom is easy to envision. Born leader.

What happened: Multiple serious knee injuries altered that trajectory and pushed him to third base. He has flashed star-level ability, but struggled to maintain consistency as the physical toll has mounted. Over the last two seasons, he's posted a 93 OPS+. Still, he remains firmly embedded in the organization’s long-term plans, especially after revamping his swing during the winter.

1. OF Alex Kirilloff
What was said at the time: Prolific bat is big-league ready. High ceiling seems imminently reachable.

What happened: There were moments when that optimism looked justified, but injuries ultimately derailed his career. Kirilloff retired following the 2024 season, at only 26 years old. In parts of four seasons, he posted a 99 OPS+, but he leaves behind one of the biggest “what-ifs” in team history.

Prospect rankings are inherently optimistic snapshots. For every success story like Duran or Jeffers, there are several players whose paths never quite align with their potential. Minnesota’s 2021 top 10 illustrates both sides of that reality, and underscores just how difficult it is to translate minor-league promise into sustained major-league production.

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What stands out about the team’s 2021 top prospect list? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Parfigliano]

Depressing.

[High heat]

I think this team outlook looks significantly different with a healthy Kiriloff.  He was such a different hitter when he had bat to ball skills and power projection with a much better athletic profile.  
 

if this team had a Carlos Santana style 2017 player at first base we wouldn’t look at the offense or infield defense as so bad.   
 

The moral of the story is you can’t just not hit on first round and supplemental picks for 3 years while cutting payroll and expect to be anything other then bottom feeders.  
 

Twins had a lot of misses in this prospect class and the few hits where just singles the other way not much for home runs!!

[Jacksson]

So where are the other 15 top 20 from 2021?  I only see FIVE.

[mikelink45]

Fascinating - I really enjoyed this review because it also tempers our expectations for the prospect rankings.  When I look at the current top prospects many of them come from other systems through trades.  Will they perform as expected?  Will they out perform the players they were traded for?  

Tait/Rojas/Gonzales/Mendez/Gallagher are in the top Twenty according to Pitcher List and all were acquired in our massive trade moves this past summer.  Add in Mick Abel/Taj Bradley (not a rookie anymore) and RHP Geremy Villoria, OF James Outman, LHP Garrett Horn, RHP Mike Mikulski, OF Alan Roden, RHP Sam Armstrong. Who will be the breakout stars?  Who will win the trades?

Will they stay healthy?  The Pablo Lopez trade looked great the first 2 1/2 seasons.  Then he was injured and missed significant time in 2025 and now he is injured and will miss all of 2026.  

Luis Arraez was traded for Lopez, Jose Salas and outfielder Byron Chourio. Arraez won a batting title with the Marlins, then he was traded to SD and won another batting title during his two years there.  Now he is with San Francisco. Yes we could use Arraez, but if Pablo had stayed healthy we still would have won the trade. 

Salas, 22, SS, hit 236/310 with 732 OPS last year at Witchita.  Baseball reference has him as number 29 in our system.

Byron Chourio, 20, OF hit 344/429/410/838  He looks like he might be a success or solid trade bait.  He is ranked 30 on Fangraphs top 43 list for the Twins.  

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minnesota-twins-top-43-prospects/ This is a 2025 list.

As we see the TD lists I would love to see a comparison chart that compares the various projections on Fangraphs, MLB.com, TD and others..  

 

 

[jmlease1]

Kirilloff was ruined by injuries, not a lack of talent. Not a lot you can do about that. Lewis has also been sapped significantly by injury. Some of that is just bad luck.

Larnach has been hampered by some injury issues, but he's simply been just ok rather than good.

Jeffers has been quality, a good starter. Duran became an all-star closer and was traded for what we hope was a lot of value.

Honestly, things like that are going to happen with your top prospects. The bust rate looks high, but if you control for injury then it's probably not about flaws in talent evaluation and development, at least?

The back half of the top ten does look much worse; the Cavaco pick was dicey from the jump and while Sabato was also a stretch, at least it wasn't a top 10 pick. They both got ranked too high on the prospect list here because of their draft status more than their actual project and ability, which is a good reminder to be careful about giving players too much credit on scholarship. Balazovic was well-liked by a lot of people but some injuries and him being something of a headcase ended his time as a prospect. Enlow is a reminder of TINSTAPP. I do wonder how much the pandemic screwed up the development of guys like Cavaco, Balazovic, Enlow, etc. Canterino of course has been ruined by injury and was a calculated risk from the jump I think. (it hasn't worked out, but I still don't mind the process on it...and I'm still rooting for him to be healthy enough to pitch)

Having Rooker, Sands, Wallner, and Miranda in the final quartile is pretty good, actually. Wallner may be despised by a segment of Twins Daily fans, but he was a hardly a prospect miss. Sands is slotted in the bullpen and should be a solid setup guy. Rooker didn't figure it out in time here, but the talent was there. And Miranda was doing fine until the beaning wrecked him; I can't hold that against him or the Twins development staff...and frankly, I question the humanity of anyone who does. 

The big misses by Twins Daily on this prospect list were over-hyping Cavaco and Sabato based on draft position, probably being a little too high on Larnach (though there were decent reasons) and Celestino (who I would argue was mismanaged and is one of the bigger developmental fails by the organization).

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Kirilloff was ruined by injuries, not a lack of talent...

Kirilloff couldn't field and his offensive ceiling was limited because he didn't have raw power (108mph max exit velocity over his entire career), and he didn't have a ton of game power since he didn't hit fly balls. He had below average plate discipline and wouldn't take walks so his OBP was capped. His K rate was too high for his game power so his AVG/SLG were going to be capped, too.

Kirilloff's 2023 probably represented something close to his ceiling where he was on pace for a 1.0 WAR full season, but even that comes with the Larnach caveat because Kirilloff was heavily shielded from lefties. If Kirilloff ever got a true full season, his bat was likely going to pan out to league average or a little better.

[jmlease1]

12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Kirilloff couldn't field and his offensive ceiling was limited because he didn't have raw power (108mph max exit velocity over his entire career), and he didn't have a ton of game power since he didn't hit fly balls. He had below average plate discipline and wouldn't take walks so his OBP was capped. His K rate was too high for his game power so his AVG/SLG were going to be capped, too.

Kirilloff's 2023 probably represented something close to his ceiling where he was on pace for a 1.0 WAR full season, but even that comes with the Larnach caveat because Kirilloff was heavily shielded from lefties. If Kirilloff ever got a true full season, his bat was likely going to pan out to league average or a little better.

Kirilloff had exactly one healthy pro season in his whole career, unfortunately, and it was all the way back in 2018, when he came off Tommy John and murdered A-ball. His best season in MLB was certainly 2023, when he was also his healthiest...and still only played 108 games between the minors and the majors. Knowing where his ceiling was when he never played a healthy season in MLB is quite a feat?

The idea that he wouldn't take walks is a bit skewed; he certainly did in 2023 (that .348 OBP would have ranked 4th on the 2025 Twins from qualifying players). And estimates on his power is a little hard for a player who battled wrist, elbow, and back injuries his entire career?