Pohlads Willing to Spend?

[BabyJesusBuxton]

hasn't stopped the Cardinals from getting good players the last few years.....

The last few years are comparing apples to oranges **. Each draft has different depth. The Twins have done pretty good drafting past their first pick the last few years too.

 

Edit: ** with respect to the 2000's drafts.

[TheLeviathan]

The last few years are comparing apples to oranges. Each draft has different depth. The Twins have done pretty good drafting past their first pick the last few years too.

 

And all that's being argued is that Ryan had a rough 5 years or so there in which they neither drafted well in the first, nor in subsequent rounds.

 

Why is there this apparent need to romanticize those drafts? They weren't good, the organization's depth was suffering, Smith did a lot to rebuild a languishing minors and Ryan has carried that on very successfully. (And returned to drafting well as he had done earlier in his first tenure)

 

What about that is so offensive to the senses that we have to romanticize it?

[BabyJesusBuxton]

And all that's being argued is that Ryan had a rough 5 years or so there in which they neither drafted well in the first, nor in subsequent rounds.

 

Why is there this apparent need to romanticize those drafts? They weren't good, the organization's depth was suffering, Smith did a lot to rebuild a languishing minors and Ryan has carried that on very successfully. (And returned to drafting well as he had done earlier in his first tenure)

 

What about that is so offensive to the senses that we have to romanticize it?

 

Just to clarify, I wasn't trying to argue that the drafts were good. I think the first round picks were successful for where they drafted. After that not so much.

 

I just wanted to point out the fact that after the top 30-50 players taken, the odds of getting a future MLB player decreases exponentially.

[drjim]

I was thinking of this draft issue so I did a tiny bit of research. I went to baseball-reference and analyzed the 2001-2008 drafts, where they rank each player selected by WAR. Not perfect, but good enough for a good study. Here is the pick the Twins had (or expected WAR rank of the pick), and how the player actually currently ranks.

 

2001: Pick 1 (Mauer), WAR rank 2

2002: Pick 20 (Span), WAR rank T-6

2003: Pick 21 (Moses), WAR rank T-19 (0)

2004: Pick 20 (Plouffe), 22 (Perkins), 25 (Waldrop), WAR ranks 17, 7, 19

2005: Pick 25 (Garza), WAR rank 8

2006: Pick 20 (Parmelee), WAR rank 10

2007: Pick 28 (Revere), WAR rank T-8

2008: Pick 14 (Hicks), WAR rank T-12

 

Interestingly enough, the Twins have done better on every one of their first round picks relative to what the expected WAR would be at that pick except for Mauer. I also think that most of these picks will get no worse, and will actually probably do better than their current ranks.

 

Perhaps people have unrealistic expectations for Twins draft results?

 

EDIT: Forgot Guitterez in 2008. 27th Pick, T-21 WAR (0)

[drjim]

For reference, I also did St. Louis and Tampa.

 

St. Louis

2001: Pick 28, Rank T-16 (0)

2002: No Pick

2003: Pick 28, Rank 9

2004: Pick 19, Rank 29

2005: Pick 28, 30, Rank 10, 28

2006: Pick 30, Rank 11

2007: Pick 18, Rank 12

2008: Pick 13, Rank 29

 

Tampa

2001: Pick 3, Rank 29

2002: Pick 2, Rank 9

2003: Pick 1, Rank 14

2004: Pick 4, Rank 9

2005: Pick 8, Rank T-23 (0)

2006: Pick 3, Rank 1 (Longoria)

2007: Pick 1, Rank 2 (Price)

2008: Pick 1, Rank T-21 (0)

[TheLeviathan]

Perhaps people have unrealistic expectations for Twins draft results?

 

This was interesting jim...but you did look at this right? Multiple occasions in which a player's current WAR ranking exceeded their pick are guys that are a zero because they don't play major league baseball right? I'm not sure how telling of an analysis it is when it concludes Moses, Waldrup, Parmelee are all successful picks at this point.

[drjim]

This was interesting jim...but you did look at this right? Multiple occasions in which a player's current WAR ranking exceeded their pick are guys that are a zero because they don't play major league baseball right? I'm not sure how telling of an analysis it is when it concludes Moses, Waldrup, Parmelee are all successful picks at this point.

 

Correct, players who didn't make the majors were counted as zero, and there were also a handful of players each draft that had a negative WAR (which I ranked as less than zero, but would only apply in the Moses draft).

 

I don't know if "successful" is necessarily the right word, but perhaps that they exceeded the expectation of the pick that they had.

 

I'm not even suggesting the Twins have been good in the draft, as there are obviously other factors such as later round picks, elite talents vs guys who are role players, etc that matter greatly to the overall success of a franchise. But I do think some of the criticisms being levied here lack context of what is actually produced out of the draft on a year to year basis.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Correct, players who didn't make the majors were counted as zero, and there were also a handful of players each draft that had a negative WAR (which I ranked as less than zero, but would only apply in the Moses draft).

 

I don't know if "successful" is necessarily the right word, but perhaps that they exceeded the expectation of the pick that they had.

 

I'm not even suggesting the Twins have been good in the draft, as there are obviously other factors such as later round picks, elite talents vs guys who are role players, etc that matter greatly to the overall success of a franchise. But I do think some of the criticisms being levied here lack context of what is actually produced out of the draft on a year to year basis.

 

I'd be interested to see the people who didn't make the majors as a "nil" ranking.

 

By default, the guy with the negative WAR should be ranked higher than a "nil" seeing as he actually made it to MLB while the other did not.

[nicksaviking]

Perhaps people have unrealistic expectations for Twins draft results?

 

I don't believe I do. I already mentioned that I believe the Twins have done fine with the first round. Obviously later picks tend to fail at a high percentage, but for more than a decade, this team has shown almost no ability to spot someone later than round 2 or 3. The top guys are the names every team knows and scouts. For a team that prides itself on scouting, they have not been very good and discovering talent on their own.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know if "successful" is necessarily the right word, but perhaps that they exceeded the expectation of the pick that they had.

 

Sorry but guys that didn't make the major leagues are not exceeding any expectations.

[drjim]

I'd be interested to see the people who didn't make the majors as a "nil" ranking.

 

By default, the guy with the negative WAR shouldered be ranked higher than a "nil" seeing as he actually made it to MLB while the other did not.

 

The "nils" for the Twins were Moses and Gutierrez. There were no negatives so the rankings wouldn't be much different. I generally agree with your premise.

 

It was quick and dirty, could be a useful thing to look at in more depth.

[drjim]

I don't believe I do. I already mentioned that I believe the Twins have done fine with the first round. Obviously later picks tend to fail at a high percentage, but for more than a decade, this team has shown almost no ability to spot someone later than round 2 or 3. The top guys are the names every team knows and scouts. For a team that prides itself on scouting, they have not been very good and discovering talent on their own.

 

The Twins have 13 guys they drafted on the 40 man roster, here is the breakdown by round:

1st - 6 (Mauer, Plouffe, Hicks, Gibson, Perkins, Parmelee)

2nd - 1 (Swarzak)

3rd - 2 (Morneau, Duensing)

6th - 2 (Herrmann, Hermsen)

8th - 1 (Dozier)

30th - 1 (Tonkin)

 

Not sure how this compares to other teams, but they have at least gotten some role players later. Eddie Rosario was a 4th rounder as well.

[Kwak]

The Twins were also drafting in the bottom third of the first round for nearly a decade...

I refuted that premise yesterday with Tampa's drafts.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins have 13 guys they drafted on the 40 man roster, here is the breakdown by round:

1st - 6 (Mauer, Plouffe, Hicks, Gibson, Perkins, Parmelee)

2nd - 1 (Swarzak)

3rd - 2 (Morneau, Duensing)

6th - 2 (Herrmann, Hermsen)

8th - 1 (Dozier)

30th - 1 (Tonkin)

 

Not sure how this compares to other teams, but they have at least gotten some role players later. Eddie Rosario was a 4th rounder as well.

 

And hopefully Rosario, Tonkin, DJ Hicks and DJ Baxendale end up proving that the team is drafting better lately. However since 2003, it appears that Brain Dozier is the best MLB player the Twins have drafted past the 3rd round. If you want to expand it to include the 3rd round, then LOOGY Brian Duensing is the best player drafted in that span.

 

I'm guessing nearly every team can claim better success stories and multiple ones at that. It's not acceptable for a team that implies it's scouting is the most improtant part of a rebuild.

 

Edit: Just going through random team's yearly draft results will show the disparity.

[Kwak]

I was thinking of this draft issue so I did a tiny bit of research. I went to baseball-reference and analyzed the 2001-2008 drafts, where they rank each player selected by WAR. Not perfect, but good enough for a good study. Here is the pick the Twins had (or expected WAR rank of the pick), and how the player actually currently ranks.

 

2001: Pick 1 (Mauer), WAR rank 2

2002: Pick 20 (Span), WAR rank T-6

2003: Pick 21 (Moses), WAR rank T-19 (0)

2004: Pick 20 (Plouffe), 22 (Perkins), 25 (Waldrop), WAR ranks 17, 7, 19

2005: Pick 25 (Garza), WAR rank 8

2006: Pick 20 (Parmelee), WAR rank 10

2007: Pick 28 (Revere), WAR rank T-8

2008: Pick 14 (Hicks), WAR rank T-12

 

Interestingly enough, the Twins have done better on every one of their first round picks relative to what the expected WAR would be at that pick except for Mauer. I also think that most of these picks will get no worse, and will actually probably do better than their current ranks.

 

Perhaps people have unrealistic expectations for Twins draft results?

 

EDIT: Forgot Guitterez in 2008. 27th Pick, T-21 WAR (0)

 

Examine the 2000 draft. It was loaded with future major leaguers and many who were an all-star. The Twins lone success: Jason Kubel. The Twins selected second.

[drjim]

Examine the 2000 draft. It was loaded with future major leaguers and many who were an all-star. The Twins lone success: Jason Kubel. The Twins selected second.

 

Actually the 2000 first round was awful. Three really good players, a couple of bit players and not much else.

 

2000 Amateur Draft - BR Bullpen

[Kwak]

LOL That was one of the funnier things I've read in quite a while.. TR left payroll money on the table haha.. D'hoookay. His job is also on the line (whether u believe it or not), but hes just going to not use all his available resources?lol. The Pohlad's are lying to us once again, using TR as a scapegoat. Gardy will be the next scapegoat. I hate them so much, they are the biggest money leaches. I could not be happier with the Twins W/L record, its fun watching AA plays try to compete against major leaguers..

+1.

 

I had perceived that this "nugget of information" from the Pohlad's was completely self-serving too. DSP was interviewed at the start of the season saying "we are comfortable with the payroll in the $80-85 MM range." So, I wonder what he will say in 2014? There will be about $29MM in payroll removed from expired contracts after 2013, (I am assuming that Burton will receive a new contract so I am not including him in my estimate). Will the Twins be spending all (or most) of that? Given their "nugget" from this thread how do they intend to "square" Ryan's 2014 budget if it isn't in the same $80-85MM range?

[Vervehound]

Examine the 2000 draft. It was loaded with future major leaguers and many who were an all-star. The Twins lone success: Jason Kubel. The Twins selected second.

 

we had the second pick in 2000 and the 30th pick in 2011 so it's not apples to apples, but with two supplemental picks in 2011 we wound up with:

 

1 levi michael - eesh

1s travis harrison - promising; his scouting reports aren't indicating plus tools but his production is solid for age/position/league

1s hudson boyd - he's imploded in the mwl this year and already moved to the bullpen. eesh. no more drafting fat preps, please.

2 madison boer - eesh

3 corey williams - starting to go backward in the fsl even though he's been a full time reliever for the duration of his pro career

4 matt summers - possible future no.5 starter; decent arm, doesn't miss bats at all

5 tyler grimes - flamed out at ss, reinvented as a catcher. we'll see....

 

and to think we may wind up with a top three system despite such a horrible recent draft.

[ashbury]

By default, the guy with the negative WAR should be ranked higher than a "nil" seeing as he actually made it to MLB while the other did not.

 

GMs never promote unwisely, or in a situation with no good options?

[Highabove]

+1.

 

I had perceived that this "nugget of information" from the Pohlad's was completely self-serving too. DSP was interviewed at the start of the season saying "we are comfortable with the payroll in the $80-85 MM range." So, I wonder what he will say in 2014? There will be about $29MM in payroll removed from expired contracts after 2013, (I am assuming that Burton will receive a new contract so I am not including him in my estimate). Will the Twins be spending all (or most) of that? Given their "nugget" from this thread how do they intend to "square" Ryan's 2014 budget if it isn't in the same $80-85MM range?

 

 

Actually, the opening day payroll came in at 76 million. Why is this relevant?

This figure puts the Twins near some pre target field payrolls. The Twins payroll now rest in the bottom third of the League.

 

MLB Salaries - CBSSports.com

 

2007 Baseball Payrolls, List - MLB - ESPN

[old nurse]

Examine the 2000 draft. It was loaded with future major leaguers and many who were an all-star. The Twins lone success: Jason Kubel. The Twins selected second.

The Rays only success that year was Shields. the Cubs had Dontrelle Willis, Rangers Encarcion, the A's had Harden, and the Royals had DeJesus. The Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers and Reds had none. One real bad year for many teams. I did not look at all the teams, just enough to more than illustrate the point that the draft is a crapshoot and some years you are not lucky. Some teams did get lucky in the draft.

[Kobs]

How different is this team if they didn't trade away the one very good starter they've drafted in the past decade? I'm not arguing that the drafts were good; they were anything but good... But as time passes and some of the guys we thought were washouts turn into productive every day players, I don't see how the drafts can be considered "OMG TERRIBLE". Yeah, they've screwed up pretty badly in some drafts, particularly when it comes to pitching (I mean, really... what does it take to get more than one decent starter in 5+ drafts?)... But even just keeping Garza would have made a huge difference through 2010, 11, and 12 (not to mention he probably means a playoff appearance in 08 as well).

 

From 2004-2008, the Twins drafted eight 1.0+ WAR players according to BB-Ref (and that's not including Plouffe, who currently sits at 0.8). The Cubs drafted four. The Astros drafted four.

 

I'm not saying the Twins drafts were good. The front office did not do a good enough job during those years. I'm only saying that they weren't complete busts.

 

Here's the problem. Being marginally better than the Cubs and Astros here has basically no value. The Twins picking up a few extra slightly above replacement level players doesn't get them anywhere. If you can't find a few legitimate gems to carry your team, you've failed, miserably.You can pretty much draw that conclusion in any situation in which you're comparing yourself to the Astros.

 

Would Garza have helped? Obviously. I still think they lose 90 last year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

GMs never promote unwisely, or in a situation with no good options?

 

Still, that player was called up before another player so there are always worse options available.

[Kobs]

Consistency? What's your time frame? Three years? Fifteen years? Does your assessment change when the the next group of minor leaguers appear?

 

The Twins poor product on the field has less to do with their ability to draft (winning for so long, hurt our prospects here) than it does to acquire major league talent through either free agency or trade.

 

The Twins' poor product has everything to do with draft failures, and to say that you should expect to get your best players (the guys the Twins are actually missing) from free agency or trades doesn't jive with anything we've seen in baseball aside from a few organizations with unlimited resources.

 

Let me reiterate this...the Twins aren't missing complementary pieces that should be added from outside. They are missing the foundation pieces that actually make teams viable.

 

The Twins haven't had anything of value to trade since the Garza deal. You know why? ****ty drafting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here's the problem. Being marginally better than the Cubs and Astros here has basically no value. The Twins picking up a few extra slightly above replacement level players doesn't get them anywhere. If you can't find a few legitimate gems to carry your team, you've failed, miserably.You can pretty much draw that conclusion in any situation in which you're comparing yourself to the Astros.

 

Would Garza have helped? Obviously. I still think they lose 90 last year.

 

I don't know if they lose 90 but they probably come close to it.

 

Really, the Garza move was the most disastrous thing Smith did in his tenure as GM. The Twins went from a solid pitching franchise to losing Radke, Santana, and Garza in the span of 12 months. To boot, Liriano was out with TJ surgery. So much hope for the future dashed on the rocks with two bad moves. One was forced (Santana), the other was not.

 

We'll just have to agree to disagree on the severity of the Twins' mid-2000s draft screwups. My only real point going into this is with the emergence of Plouffe, the possibility of Parmelee turning into a decent player (which looks more like a hope and a wish than it did a month ago), and Perkins turning into a dominant reliever, those drafts weren't as bad as they initially looked.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The one thing I'm not sure everyone understands is that it's a fairly good draft if you walk out with 2 major leaguers... Just something to think about.

 

Also, for all the talk about St. Louis, I really wonder how many people would flame the Twins if they used their methods. St. Louis loads up on high floor, lower ceiling guys from tough college conferences. I know a lot of people on this forum who would be up in arms about that type of draft. I think it makes sense given that they have consistently picked in the lower part of the first round. Right now, though, given where MN is picking, they need to be focusing heavily on star potential. They can augment in the safer guys once they have some established stars.

[Vervehound]

The one thing I'm not sure everyone understands is that it's a fairly good draft if you walk out with 2 major leaguers... Just something to think about.

 

Also, for all the talk about St. Louis, I really wonder how many people would flame the Twins if they used their methods. St. Louis loads up on high floor, lower ceiling guys from tough college conferences. I know a lot of people on this forum who would be up in arms about that type of draft. I think it makes sense given that they have consistently picked in the lower part of the first round. Right now, though, given where MN is picking, they need to be focusing heavily on star potential. They can augment in the safer guys once they have some established stars.

 

the cards do draft high floor guys but they also have shown an understanding for when to gamble on upside - Shelby miller comes to mind right away - as does the signing of carlos Martinez. throw in Michael wacha, who was just a really smart pick at that point in the first round, and you have an organization that has demonstrated an ability to go after a variety of different types of players that makes our (former?) penchant for strike throwing college pitchers gauche.

[Highabove]

Patrick Reusse writes tonight on the Twins unwillingness to spend on International talent.

Reusse: Twins and timid intersect too often | StarTribune.com

[ThePuck]

Patrick Reusse writes tonight on the Twins unwillingness to spend on International talent.

Reusse: Twins and timid intersect too often | StarTribune.com

 

This might be worth starting it's own thread.

[nicksaviking]

I would happily comment on it.