Can Nathaniel Lowe Change The Offseason?

[DocBauer]

Work with me here. The player roster is a but of a mess of puzzle pieces that don't exactly fit together. As I wrote in the recent OP about roster construction 3.0, there is an awkward path to sorta make the roster work.

But what if ONE signing could change the player roster in to something that actually makes sense? IMO, that ONE signing is Nathaniel Lowe.

No, he's NOT a STUD signing that changes an entire lineup as a DANGEROUS BAT. But he's a really solid player that DOES change an awkward roster to one that starts to make sense.

Lowe was a good, solid player for Tampa and Texas for a number of years. While he once had a 27HR season, he's really more of a 18HR type of player. He isn't special, but he's solid, and at still only 30yo, he has a respectable 12.2 career WAR.

His career quad slash line is a very respectable: .264/ .347/ .424/ .771. While not an All Star or Silver Slugger contender, that is a QUALITY ML hitter. And being a LH hitter, his career splits against LHP is pretty solid. Simply, that means he doesn't have to be platooned. Further, he's usually available for about 140 games per season. That availability is also a real positive, especially considering previous Twins injury issues.

So other than not actually being an All Star type player, what are the negatives? Well, he ended up with the worst season of his career in 2025. Between Washington and his trade to the BoSox...he was better for the Nationals...he ended up with a quad slash line of: .228/ .307/ .381/ .689. So he was a slightly below average ML hitter. But even then, his 44XBH (18HR) and 84 RBI would have made him one of the better BATS on the 2025 Twins.

SO WHY IS HE AVAILABLE? Because he's solid but not a STUD despite a solid career, and is coming off a poor season. His projected arbitration number was around $12.5-13M. And the BoSox decided they weren't going to pay that.

And apparently, nobody else wants to pay him close to that either, and probably have their 1B already accounted for.

Offseason projections vary, but it's been speculated he might only get a deal for around $6-7M. I saw more around $8-10M at one point when the offseason began.

SO HOW DOES HE CHANGE THE 2026 TWINS? Simply because he's a legitimate, decent 1B who has solid career numbers, a generally neutral split against LHP...which I've mentioned...and is durable. He's a PERFECT fit for a team that DOESN'T have a legitimate every day 1B and desperately needs one.

Let's examine contract options. Whether it's  1yr, or 2yrs, his value might be as little as $7M per either way. But let's go bonkers and say it's as high as $10M. (ST is right around the corner and he's still sitting at home, but I'll go high for arguments sake).

1] Bell, NOT playing 1B other than occasionally, if at all, is probably a 2 WAR player, or better, as ONLY a DH. (His career WAR is affected by defense limitations). 

2] Clemens...not exactly a DAILY player...gets to be a hot/cold LH power bat as a bench player who can play 5 positions, with 3B his weakest spot, but he can play it.

3] All the more reason to move Larnach for SOMETHING. By himself, he brings back a A+ or maybe even a decent AA prospect. COMBINED with a decent prospect top 25 range maybe, he might help bring in a decent RP option. Maybe another team's version of Varland. OR, maybe, he just brings in another team's solid utility player who can play SS. Maybe it's even a really solid 26yo MILB utility player/SS that's sitting at AAA that has more projection than the current option the Twins currently have. THAT would be MY target. A possible Castro, or Castro-lite just sitting there with some talent who projects as better than the current options.

The most important issue is the removal of his $4.5M off the books. That pays for at least half of Lowe's contract! 

4] LF now belongs to some sort of quasi platoon of Martin and Roden. They get the opportunity to show what they can do with the glove and their bats. The Twins from reports I've heard, is considered to be a decent CF to give Buxton days off. If Martin's vast improvement in LF could carry over even little to CF, he could be a #3 option there. Were Buck to have an IL stint for any reason, 2 of your top 4 prospects are CF sitting at AAA, with one already on the 40 man. So absolutely no reason for Outman to be around.

SO WHAT IS THE OUTCOME? Bell becomes the primary DH, where he can excel. You have a solid, experienced, daily 1B that doesn't have to be platooned. Clemens remains as a decent utility player, helping the bench. And you improve the defense in LF, and at 1B, while also improving the depth of the every day lineup.

The cost for Lowe is somewhere between $7-10M, depending on what you read. And Larnach removed covers at least half of Lowe's signing.

NOBODY is actually blocked from AAA. And the only "hole" on the position side is the utility/SS spot. And MAYBE a Larnach trade could help there as well?

More speed and defense in LF, a better, decent proven 1B with a decent bat and glove, and the $ cost is pretty small with Larnach gone.

Tell me this doesn't make massive sense for 2026.

[thelanges5]

Good idea. Is Zoll a member on TD? He should read this. 

IKF and Andujar have signed at 1 yr $6m and $4m respectively. At this point Lowe is in that range. 

Larnach + MiLB pitcher for Romero (Cards) or Vodnik (Rox)

Sign Kopech while they’re at it. 

[jorgenswest]

51 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Bell, NOT playing 1B other than occasionally, if at all, is probably a 2 WAR player, or better, as ONLY a DH. (His career WAR is affected by defense limitations). 

Most of the negative defensive WAR value for both Lowe and Bell is the positional adjustment. Bell had a -15.7 DEF value last year because he played mostly DH. Lowe played much more first base which has less negative positional adjustment. Still he was a -13.3 DEF value as well as a negative DRS and OAA. It is not easy for a DH to be better than a 2 WAR player given the huge negative positional adjustment on their WAR. Last year Yandy Diaz had a wRC+ of 121 well above league average and he only had 1.7 WAR in 496 PAs as a DH.

I am hoping Jenkins arrives soon. I think Jenkins in RF with Wallner at DH and Bell at 1B has more impact on their overall defense as well as at the plate.

[Doctor Wu]

I've always liked Lowe and would be happy to have him with the Twins. But as things stand, the roster fit DOES seem a bit awkward. But hey, I still like the idea. Now about that bullpen ...

[bunsen82]

The Twins went the Bell option and have already semi doubled down on Wagaman.  I would highly doubt they would sign Lowe when they need to utilize their remaining funds into 1-2 decent relievers.  The only high leverage potential reliever left is Kopech.   Suter appears to be off the board as well.  

[Linus]

I like the idea and would prefer it to having Bell at first but that bed seems to be made. I think you will get your wish of Martin / Roden in left but I will bet Larnach is the DH. Just don’t see surplus value there in a trade. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

22 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

IKF and Andujar have signed at 1 yr $6m and $4m respectively.

Seeing Andújar’s contract, I wondered whether the Twins would rather have done that deal (or, say, beat it by $1M) than Bell at $7M. 

[Chembry]

On 2/4/2026 at 9:25 PM, DocBauer said:

Work with me here. The player roster is a but of a mess of puzzle pieces that don't exactly fit together. As I wrote in the recent OP about roster construction 3.0, there is an awkward path to sorta make the roster work.

But what if ONE signing could change the player roster in to something that actually makes sense? IMO, that ONE signing is Nathaniel Lowe.

No, he's NOT a STUD signing that changes an entire lineup as a DANGEROUS BAT. But he's a really solid player that DOES change an awkward roster to one that starts to make sense.

Lowe was a good, solid player for Tampa and Texas for a number of years. While he once had a 27HR season, he's really more of a 18HR type of player. He isn't special, but he's solid, and at still only 30yo, he has a respectable 12.2 career WAR.

His career quad slash line is a very respectable: .264/ .347/ .424/ .771. While not an All Star or Silver Slugger contender, that is a QUALITY ML hitter. And being a LH hitter, his career splits against LHP is pretty solid. Simply, that means he doesn't have to be platooned. Further, he's usually available for about 140 games per season. That availability is also a real positive, especially considering previous Twins injury issues.

So other than not actually being an All Star type player, what are the negatives? Well, he ended up with the worst season of his career in 2025. Between Washington and his trade to the BoSox...he was better for the Nationals...he ended up with a quad slash line of: .228/ .307/ .381/ .689. So he was a slightly below average ML hitter. But even then, his 44XBH (18HR) and 84 RBI would have made him one of the better BATS on the 2025 Twins.

SO WHY IS HE AVAILABLE? Because he's solid but not a STUD despite a solid career, and is coming off a poor season. His projected arbitration number was around $12.5-13M. And the BoSox decided they weren't going to pay that.

And apparently, nobody else wants to pay him close to that either, and probably have their 1B already accounted for.

Offseason projections vary, but it's been speculated he might only get a deal for around $6-7M. I saw more around $8-10M at one point when the offseason began.

SO HOW DOES HE CHANGE THE 2026 TWINS? Simply because he's a legitimate, decent 1B who has solid career numbers, a generally neutral split against LHP...which I've mentioned...and is durable. He's a PERFECT fit for a team that DOESN'T have a legitimate every day 1B and desperately needs one.

Let's examine contract options. Whether it's  1yr, or 2yrs, his value might be as little as $7M per either way. But let's go bonkers and say it's as high as $10M. (ST is right around the corner and he's still sitting at home, but I'll go high for arguments sake).

1] Bell, NOT playing 1B other than occasionally, if at all, is probably a 2 WAR player, or better, as ONLY a DH. (His career WAR is affected by defense limitations). 

2] Clemens...not exactly a DAILY player...gets to be a hot/cold LH power bat as a bench player who can play 5 positions, with 3B his weakest spot, but he can play it.

3] All the more reason to move Larnach for SOMETHING. By himself, he brings back a A+ or maybe even a decent AA prospect. COMBINED with a decent prospect top 25 range maybe, he might help bring in a decent RP option. Maybe another team's version of Varland. OR, maybe, he just brings in another team's solid utility player who can play SS. Maybe it's even a really solid 26yo MILB utility player/SS that's sitting at AAA that has more projection than the current option the Twins currently have. THAT would be MY target. A possible Castro, or Castro-lite just sitting there with some talent who projects as better than the current options.

The most important issue is the removal of his $4.5M off the books. That pays for at least half of Lowe's contract! 

4] LF now belongs to some sort of quasi platoon of Martin and Roden. They get the opportunity to show what they can do with the glove and their bats. The Twins from reports I've heard, is considered to be a decent CF to give Buxton days off. If Martin's vast improvement in LF could carry over even little to CF, he could be a #3 option there. Were Buck to have an IL stint for any reason, 2 of your top 4 prospects are CF sitting at AAA, with one already on the 40 man. So absolutely no reason for Outman to be around.

SO WHAT IS THE OUTCOME? Bell becomes the primary DH, where he can excel. You have a solid, experienced, daily 1B that doesn't have to be platooned. Clemens remains as a decent utility player, helping the bench. And you improve the defense in LF, and at 1B, while also improving the depth of the every day lineup.

The cost for Lowe is somewhere between $7-10M, depending on what you read. And Larnach removed covers at least half of Lowe's signing.

NOBODY is actually blocked from AAA. And the only "hole" on the position side is the utility/SS spot. And MAYBE a Larnach trade could help there as well?

More speed and defense in LF, a better, decent proven 1B with a decent bat and glove, and the $ cost is pretty small with Larnach gone.

Tell me this doesn't make massive sense for 2026.

Doc- You and I have been on the Nathaniel Lowe train for a while.  I like him better than Bell, who should strictly be a DH.

Lowe gives you a solid MLB bat (2022 Silver Slugger and career 116 OPS+) and gold glove caliber 1B defense (GG in '23 and GG finalist in '24).  I do think adding Lowe makes sense in all the ways you laid out, and I don't think it would even take $7M at this point.  MLBTR writers thought a 1y/$5M would get it done.  However, I think that ship sailed with the Caratini signing.  I also believe Caratini/Clemens will be getting the backup reps at 1B.  That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't be looking to upgrade, because they should.

I do think the biggest move the Twins need to make is to trade a LHH OF.  Moving Larnach makes the most sense.  I will go as far as saying, I really don't care what the return for Larnach is at this point.  By removing him, we do lose an average MLB bat, but gain so much more in defense and lineup flexibility.

Assume we trade Larnach, here is what I see as the position player roster, without an additional signing:

C: Jeffers, Caratini

IF: Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Kreidler or Gray

OF: Buxton, Martin, Wallner, Roden

UTIL: Clemens, Wagaman

Personally I like Gray over Kreidler.  Gray can play every IF position at a league average level (small sample sizes), but is a significant upgrade offensively over Kreidler.  

OF: I just listened to Bobby Nightengale on a Gleeman and the Geek podcast and the Twins believe Roden can back up Buxton in CF and at least plays a competent CF.  Obviously, you don't want Roden there on a daily basis.  As much as Martin improved in LF last year, you would hope some of that would also translate to CF, so he could also be a potential back up option.  If Buxton gets hurt, you are probably calling up ERod or Jenkins.  We need to pay attention in ST to see who is getting reps in CF and when.  My guess is Roden and Martin will get a decent share of time in CF at ST.  If the Twins feel confident in Roden or Martin as a CF backup, than that leaves Outman off the roster, which would be music to most fans ears.  

UTIL: Both Clemens and Wagaman can play multiple positions.  Clemens can play anywhere in the dirt (minus SS) and COF.  Wagaman can play CIF or COF and mashes lefties.  According to fielding bible, he was competent (-1 DRS) in 106 innings in LF last year.  That is why I believe he is on the roster.  

If we do upgrade the roster with another hitter, Wagaman is the odd man out.  

[DJL44]

Lowe, Goldschmidt and Hoskins are all still available. The Twins are going to regret paying a premium to lock Bell up early.

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Chembry said:

Doc- You and I have been on the Nathaniel Lowe train for a while.  I like him better than Bell, who should strictly be a DH.

Lowe gives you a solid MLB bat (2022 Silver Slugger and career 116 OPS+) and gold glove caliber 1B defense (GG in '23 and GG finalist in '24).  I do think adding Lowe makes sense in all the ways you laid out, and I don't think it would even take $7M at this point.  MLBTR writers thought a 1y/$5M would get it done.  However, I think that ship sailed with the Caratini signing.  I also believe Caratini/Clemens will be getting the backup reps at 1B.  That doesn't mean the Twins should be looking to upgrade, because they should.

I do think the biggest move the Twins need to make is to trade a LHH OF.  Moving Larnach makes the most sense.  I will go as far as saying, I really don't care what the return for Larnach is at this point.  By removing him, we do lose an average MLB bat, but gain so much more in defense and lineup flexibility.

Assume we trade Larnach, here is what I see as the position player roster, without an additional signing:

C: Jeffers, Caratini

IF: Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Kreidler or Gray

OF: Buxton, Martin, Wallner, Roden

UTIL: Clemens, Wagaman

Personally I like Gray over Kreidler.  Gray can play every IF position at a league average level (small sample sizes), but is a significant upgrade offensively over Kreidler.  

OF: I just listened to Bobby Nightengale on a Gleeman and the Geek podcast and the Twins believe Roden can back up Buxton in CF and at least plays a competent CF.  Obviously, you don't want Roden there on a daily basis.  As much as Martin improved in LF last year, you would hope some of that would also translate to CF, so he could also be a potential back up option.  If Buxton gets hurt, you are probably calling up ERod or Jenkins.  We need to pay attention in ST to see who is getting reps in CF and when.  My guess is Roden and Martin will get a decent share of time in CF at ST.  If the Twins feel confident in Roden or Martin as a CF backup, than that leaves Outman off the roster, which would be music to most fans ears.  

UTIL: Both Clemens and Wagaman can play multiple positions.  Clemens can play anywhere in the dirt (minus SS) and COF.  Wagaman can play CIF or COF and mashes lefties.  According to fielding bible, he was competent (-1 DRS) in 106 innings in LF last year.  That is why I believe he is on the roster.  

If we do upgrade the roster with another hitter, Wagaman is the odd man out.  

We're definitely on the same page. The only thing I disagree with is Caratini blocking any addition of Lowe. Caratini and Jeffers are a nice catching duo and they only cost about $1-1.5M more than last season's duo. And while it's nice Caratini can help some at 1B, his most important role is working behind/with Jeffers. 

Larnach's $, a couple $M more for Lowe, is a lot better roster construction with Wagaman down in AAA. I just don't see Caratini preventing a Lowe signing as his contract really should have little $ impact.

And also on the same page regarding Roden giving Buxton days off, Rodriguez and Jenkins are sitting at AAA not only for opportunity, but as longer Buck replacements if he misses time to actual injury. Just no need for Outman in any capacity.

It's not too late to tweak the roster. Come on Tom!

 

[Chembry]

36 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

We're definitely on the same page. The only thing I disagree with is Caratini blocking any addition of Lowe. Caratini and Jeffers are a nice catching duo and they only cost about $1-1.5M more than last season's duo. And while it's nice Caratini can help some at 1B, his most important role is working behind/with Jeffers. 

Larnach's $, a couple $M more for Lowe, is a lot better roster construction with Wagaman down in AAA. I just don't see Caratini preventing a Lowe signing as his contract really should have little $ impact.

And also on the same page regarding Roden giving Buxton days off, Rodriguez and Jenkins are sitting at AAA not only for opportunity, but as longer Buck replacements if he misses time to actual injury. Just no need for Outman in any capacity.

It's not too late to tweak the roster. Come on Tom!

 

For clarity, I don't view Caratini as blocking any addition of Lowe (or any other FA), I just don't think the Twins will pursue another FA bat.  Even though I think we should try to add another bat.  Lowe makes sense.  

[DJL44]

Goldschmidt and Andujar each signed for $4M. Hoskins and Lowe are still unsigned. It looks like the Twins paid at least $3M too much for Bell.

[Chembry]

Lowe just got a minor league deal with the Reds.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/reds-sign-nathaniel-lowe.html

[Linus]

Considering I would have taken Lowe over Bell straight up I can only say wow.