Joe Mauer RISP

[darin617]

Is it just me or does Joe Mauer simply not want to swing the bat with RISP? Nothing like trying to draw a walk and hoping Morneau can drive in the runs.

[70charger]

Like the 8th inning last night when he knocked 2 in with bases loaded?

 

Or not like that?

[Guest USAFChief]

I know some will disagree, but IMO Mauer has about as little actual impact on games as is humanly possible if you just look at his slash line.

 

Yeah, he flared a single to left for two RBI in Tampa. That got him up to 32 RBI on the season...sixth (6th!) on the team. Sixth.

[JB_Iowa]

I know some will disagree, but IMO Mauer has about as little actual impact on games as is humanly possible if you just look at his slash line.

 

Yeah, he flared a single to left for two RBI in Tampa. That got him up to 32 RBI on the season...sixth (6th!) on the team. Sixth.

 

As I've made pretty clear, I'm not the biggest Joe Mauer fan but he has scored more runs (47) than anybody else by a pretty significant margin (Morneau & Dozier with 37).

 

Kind of hard to judge him on RBI alone but I'm having trouble finding his RISP stats. I'm relieved that his GIDP rate is down significantly but maybe that's because there hasn't been much on base in front of him.

[JB_Iowa]

Okay, so % of baserunners scoring when the following bat:

 

12% Mauer

16% Morneau

13% Doumit

13% Willingham (was 17% in 2012)

14% Plouffe

16% Dozier

9% Hicks

14% Arcia

 

 

I didn't go any further than that. So yep, baserunners are a little less likely to score with Mauer at the plate than many of the other Twins batters.

 

Mauer's career average is 18% (and was 19% last year) so this is a pretty significant drop off this year.

[stringer bell]

As I've made pretty clear, I'm not the biggest Joe Mauer fan but he has scored more runs (47) than anybody else by a pretty significant margin (Morneau & Dozier with 37).

 

Kind of hard to judge him on RBI alone but I'm having trouble finding his RISP stats. I'm relieved that his GIDP rate is down significantly but maybe that's because there hasn't been much on base in front of him.

Fewer on base, more balls in the air and more strikeouts. I like Mauer--he's easily the Twins best player--but in RBI situations, he refuses to expand his strike zone or change his approach. If he had last year's Willingham hitting behind him, it would probably be a good thing. Morneau's OPS this year is in the low to mid .700s, so if Mauer is pitched around, they are facing a major league average threat.

[Alex]

As I've made pretty clear, I'm not the biggest Joe Mauer fan but he has scored more runs (47) than anybody else by a pretty significant margin (Morneau & Dozier with 37).

 

Kind of hard to judge him on RBI alone but I'm having trouble finding his RISP stats. I'm relieved that his GIDP rate is down significantly but maybe that's because there hasn't been much on base in front of him.

 

It's probably partially that but also because, as mentioned, that he has hit more balls in the air and is striking out more. I actually think the notion he's change his approach is dead wrong, btw. I think he has, and the numbers are a result of it not working as well with RISP or he's just having bad luck.

 

On the other hand, it doesn't matter what he does, people were criticizing him for it last season, too when he was pretty damn good at it.

[Alex]

I know some will disagree, but IMO Mauer has about as little actual impact on games as is humanly possible if you just look at his slash line.

 

Yeah, he flared a single to left for two RBI in Tampa. That got him up to 32 RBI on the season...sixth (6th!) on the team. Sixth.

 

People tend to have less impact on a game (by your measures) when the players ahead of them don't geton in front of them, especially true during his hottest hitting streak of the season, and it's tough to score when you don't really have anyone hitting behind you, but despite that, as pointed out, he's still scoring more runs than anyone else on the team.

 

Edit: While I'm not sure this is a stat you care about, Mauer has the highest Win Probability Added on the team. It's not saying much this season, and he is lower than last year, but it's pretty ridiculous to be critical of him, IMO.

[Seth Stohs]

Striking out more and flying out more... certainly screams an attempt to change approach to me.

 

Always strange when anyone would want to alter Mauer's approach. As has been mentioned, over his career, he's driven in 18-19% of runners in scoring position. That he's at 12% this year says that he'll likely be pretty good in the second half. Hopefully he goes back to doing what has made him so successful for so long!

[nicksaviking]

*twitch*

If I expressed what I'm thinking about this thread, I would be immediately banned. Holy moley. The fact this thread even exists...Ok, done now.

 

 

Why? There was really only one post that could be considered Mauer-negative? His lower success with RISP is a valid issue that certainly should be explored.

 

Okay, so % of baserunners scoring when the following bat:

 

12% Mauer

16% Morneau

13% Doumit

13% Willingham (was 17% in 2012)

14% Plouffe

16% Dozier

9% Hicks

14% Arcia

 

 

I didn't go any further than that. So yep, baserunners are a little less likely to score with Mauer at the plate than many of the other Twins batters.

 

Mauer's career average is 18% (and was 19% last year) so this is a pretty significant drop off this year.

 

Considering Mauer is among the league leaders in doubles, you'd think this number would be higher, so there may be an underlying issue. On the other hand, this figure is the percentage of baserunners, not baserunners in scoring position. Mauer is batting in the #2 hole now, the guys getting on in front of him in the #1, #9 and #8 holes are more likely to be on 1B as they are singles hitters (well hitters is a questionable word). Additionally, these batters are likely to produce outs, meaning Mauer is often up with 2 outs, rendering any chance for a sacrafice fly futile.

 

As mentioned, Mauer is near the top of the league in doubles, the guys batting behind him have often had Mauer on 2B for them to drive in.

[jokin]

Mauer's slash line w/RISP in 2013: .262/.410/.295/.705

 

Mauer's career slash line w/RISP: .338/.457/.487/.944

[JB_Iowa]

Mauer's slash line w/RISP in 2013: .262/.410/.295/.705

 

Mauer's career slash line w/RISP: .338/.457/.487/.944

 

Thank you. I searched all over baseball reference and couldn't find it. Fangraphs?

[nicksaviking]

His stats are all over the place. He's batting .429 with 6 RBI in 7 PA with the bases loaded. He's batting .750 with 6 RBI in 7 PA with runners on 2nd and 3rd. On the other hand he's batting .286 with runners on 1st and 3rd and .077 with runners on 1st and 2nd.

 

Another observation is he has 78 PA with RISP, meanwhile Ryan Doumit has 103 PA with RISP despite the fact that Doumit has nearly 80 fewer PA overall than Mauer. Morneau has 104 PA with RISP despite having nealy 40 fewer overall PA. It's possible it's just a small sample size issue? 78 PA generally isn't a lot to base an arguement on, though it is a start.

[nicksaviking]

Thank you. I searched all over baseball reference and couldn't find it. Fangraphs?

 

You need to click the splits tab just above the general stats section.

[JB_Iowa]

You need to click the splits tab just above the general stats section.

 

Well, duh. I had done that and still didn't see it. Thank heavens for cntrl-F cuz I found it now. Thanks.

[jm3319]

I know some will disagree, but IMO Mauer has about as little actual impact on games as is humanly possible if you just look at his slash line.

 

Just who, exactly, do you think is being driven in by Morneau, Doumit, Willingham, etc? Could it be.....Mauer who leads the team in runs scored? I'd say that's having an impact on games, slash lines be damned.

[ThePuck]

Mauer is 5th in the American League in runs created. 5th! He's doing this from the 2 spot, oh and he's doing it while playing the toughest spot on the diamond.

 

And somehow that equates to him having little actual impact on games? Not to mention the defense. I am constantly amazed at some Twins fans inability to see how great of a player Mauer is.

[jokin]

Thank you. I searched all over baseball reference and couldn't find it. Fangraphs?

 

BR, in the splits.

[Boone]

Mauer's slash line w/RISP in 2013: .262/.410/.295/.705

 

Mauer's career slash line w/RISP: .338/.457/.487/.944

 

In my opinion this is about as much info as is needed. Looking at how the percentage of runner's driven in, RBIs, etc. just has way to many variables outside of a hitter's control to be conclusive. Looking at triple slash lines and OPS, on the other hand looks at what the hitter can control, and is thus much more valuable.

 

A few things to take away from this:

1. For his career, Mauer has been excellent with runner's in scoring position.

2. This season, Mauer has undeniably struggled with RISP

3. Mauer has struggled driving in RISP--AVG and SLG, the two ways to drive in runners-- are very low

4. Mauer is at least getting on base with RISP, allowing those behind him to drive runners in

5. There is a good chance Mauer is being more patient, drawing walks twice as frequently with RISP as opposed to no RISP-- 21% BB rate in 2013 with RISP, 11% BB rate without RISP.

[nicksaviking]

5. There is a good chance Mauer is being more patient, drawing walks twice as frequently with RISP as opposed to no RISP-- 21% BB rate in 2013 with RISP, 11% BB rate without RISP.

 

That number is generally high for most players as the better hitters are often walked with RISP and first base open.

[Boone]

Valid point.

Career BB rate with RISP: 19%

2013 BB rate with RISP: 21%

 

This isn't a significant difference, especially considering he has just 78 PA in 2013, a very small sample size. In other words, Mauer is walking more or less at his career rate with RISP.

[Brad Swanson]

Here's a chart with the whole team and their stats with RISP:

 

For single seasons, For 2013, Franchise: Minnesota Twins, RISP (within Bases Occupied), sorted by greatest Plate Appearances for this split: Results - Baseball-Reference.com

[Red Holstein]

Is it just me or does Joe Mauer simply not want to swing the bat with RISP?

Nothing like trying to draw a walk and hoping Morneau can drive in the runs.

 

Shhhhhhh........ Its OK to think that, but you cant say it out loud!

[ashbury]

Here's a chart with the whole team and their stats with RISP:

 

For single seasons, For 2013, Franchise: Minnesota Twins, RISP (within Bases Occupied), sorted by greatest Plate Appearances for this split: Results - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Mauer leads his team in total PA, and not by a close margin. Mauer is not first in RISP opportunities, and not by a close margin. For a counting stat like RBI, this matters more than a minor disparity in his rate of production this year. As stated elsewhere, other guys are fattening up their RBI due to Mauer being on base.

[launchingthrees]

Comparing 2013 #s to career #s and coming up with a narrative is really silly. 78 PAs mean almost nothing. He's been elite with RISP throughout his career.

[clutterheart]

Joe Mauer is on a hall of fame track and one of the greatest twins to ever wear the jersey.

 

Stop nitpicking greatness and enjoy it.

[Halsey Hall]

Joe Mauer is on a hall of fame track and one of the greatest twins to ever wear the jersey.

 

Stop nitpicking greatness and enjoy it.

 

Ain't it the truth!

[ThePuck]

Comparing 2013 #s to career #s and coming up with a narrative is really silly. 78 PAs mean almost nothing. He's been elite with RISP throughout his career.

 

Exactly, not only that but if one had looked a month ago, they would have seen much better numbers. I imagine he'll be back to normal at season's end.