Even with Byron Buxton Back, Minnesota Twins Should Bat Luke Keaschall Atop the Batting Order

[Alex Boxwell]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Who is writing these lineups? I felt like I was shouting at the sky for a long time for this regime to hit Byron Buxton leadoff and to stop trying to reinvent baseball. It’s simple: take your best on-base guy and/or the guy who creates the most chaos, and slot him into the leadoff spot. Maybe I have become an ‘old head’, but when the lineup turns over, teams should fear that. (Admittedly, Buxton had a .304 career OBP entering this season, but his power and speed sure do create chaos.)

With no Buxton available for about two weeks, I found myself shouting at the sky again. Why was Luke Keaschall not hitting leadoff?! In a recent game against Kansas City, the Twins were shut out, and Keaschall was buried in the lineup with no chance for another at-bat in the 9th inning.

It’s a small sample size for Keaschall at the big-league level, but he played (very conveniently) 162 games at the minor-league level. In the minors, he had an on-base percentage of .411 and stole 45 bases. What a clean-up hitter, eh?

Even with the return of Buxton, why not drop the slugging center fielder down to the two hole? Keaschall has already begun to demand respect when he is on first base. When there is a known base stealer on first like Keaschall, pitchers have to defend the running game by throwing more fastballs. Throwing out a great base stealer on a breaking ball is a difficult task. A pitcher is attempting to throw the pitch low to compete against the batter, but then it becomes nearly impossible for the catcher to make the throw in time to second. On the flip side, leaving the breaking ball up to a hitter like Buxton is a recipe for disaster (depending on your perspective). Diving a layer deeper, Buxton is hitting .358 with men in scoring position this year. Not a fun way to start your day as a pitcher.

The game within the game becomes increasingly chaotic with a one-two punch of Keaschall and Buxton. Rocco Baldelli would need to get over the fact that two right-handed batters would abut one another, in order for this to be a reality. To me, though, it feels like an obvious choice. If I had my way, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher, I would lead off with Keaschall and follow with Buxton for the remainder of the season.

Regardless of the Buxton situation, Keaschall was built in a lab to hit leadoff. He's always likely to hit better for average than for power, and while his many singles and doubles can advance guys who get on in front of him, his high contact rate makes him a risk to hit into lots of double plays if he bats deeper in the lineup than first or second. I, again, find myself shaking my cane at this regime about lineup construction. I can’t fathom a real-life conversation where people are all in agreement to hit Austin Martin or Alan Roden ahead of Keaschall (although, at least, we probably won't see that now that Buxton has returned). They are both playing great, but the Twins have a potential long-term solution and spark plug for what has been largely a bland offense the last few years.

I know my thinking about the leadoff spot is antiquated, but why does it need to be complex? Hit Keaschall leadoff: He gets on base at an excellent clip and will steal a pile of bases while teams try to slider Buxton to death. Otherwise, to limit stolen bases, Buxton sees an increase in fastballs, which bodes well for his OPS long term. More importantly, a Keaschall-Buxton top of the order would give the team a boost, too: a lot of ways to score runs in quick sequences.

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[Kevin Urdahl]

This makes perfect sense! Hope Rocco makes it happen!

[LA Vikes Fan]

I like the idea, but Buxton likes hitting leadoff and hits better there than any other spot. How about Keaschall hitting second? I'd prefer a batting order like this (using what I consider the starters and likely permutations):

Buxton CF

Keaschall 2B

Wallner RF/DH

Jeffers C/DH

Clemens 1B

Lewis 3B

Larnach LF/DH

Lee SS

Martin/Roden LF/RF/DH

When Jeffers sits, everybody moves up one and Gaspar hits 8. 

[miller761]

Rocco are you listening or reading? Makes so much more sense than the lineups he is using.

[Alex Boxwell]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I like the idea, but Buxton likes hitting leadoff and hits better there than any other spot. How about Keaschall hitting second? I'd prefer a batting order like this (using what I consider the starters and likely permutations):

Buxton CF

Keaschall 2B

Wallner RF/DH

Jeffers C/DH

Clemens 1B

Lewis 3B

Larnach LF/DH

Lee SS

Martin/Roden LF/RF/DH

When Jeffers sits, everybody moves up one and Gaspar hits 8. 

I'd love to see him in the two hole as well! Hitting Keaschall 4th or 5th still just confuses me beyond belief...

[rv78]

Rocco doesn't know how to set a lineup and leave it. Your lineups are a pipedream.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Rocco doesn't know how to set a lineup and leave it. Your lineups are a pipedream.

Very few teams have fully set lineups. Plus, this team is in constant flux.

I'd bat Martin leaf off. He has less power, but good speed. 

[jmlease1]

I wouldn't mind seeing Keaschall get some time in the leadoff spot; he does seem to have a lot of good skills for it, which would also allow Buxton to drop into the 3rd spot and maybe have more runners on base when he clouts a dinger.

Martin is a fair pick, and so is Buxton (who enjoys it and is kind of Rickey-esque in the role). Nice to actually have good options that have some speed, as opposed to ones who are just high OBP dudes.

It'd be nice to have a LH or switch hitter that could slot in between Keachall & Buxton in the 2-hole. Maybe someone from the pool of Lee, Roden, Gasper, and Julien will show out in the last chunk of the season. (Clemens feels like a better fit lower in the lineup and Larnach is a DP waiting to happen too often I think, and Wallner should be hitting cleanup I think)

Maybe next season it looks something like this: 

1. Keaschall
2. Rodriguez
3. Buxton
4. Wallner
5. Lewis
6. Clemens
7. Jeffers
8. DH/OF To Be Named Later
9. Lee

Maybe Roden grabs the last spot, maybe Larnach is back, maybe someone else steps up (a resurgent Julien, a bit unlikely but still possible, or Fedko gets a shot...god forbid they sign a real FA) We'd need to see better health from Rodriguez & Lewis (and I'd have no complaints if GG claimed a spot on the roster and pushed Wallner to a DH role, or if Culpepper pushed Lee to the bench, but who knows right now) but if the younger guys are performing it could get to be a difficult lineup to navigate, with good balance and better speed than what we've been used to.

[TopGunn#22]

This has always been one of my biggest pet peeves with Rocco.  Lineup Construction.  Of course Keaschall should be the leadoff hitter !!  He gets on base at a high rate and can steal bases as well as go from 1st to 3rd on a base hit.  If he's not leading off, he should hit #2.

While Buxton likes hitting leadoff, with his extra base hit power, and especially since his plate disipline has improved and he's making more consistent contact, Buxton should be hitting 3rd.

Hitting guys like Larnach, Wallner and Jeffers in the leadoff spot is just lame.  Honestly, I have no idea what "analytics" points to sluggers with no footspeed hitting leadoff.  Hitting Luis Arraez 5th never made any sense.  I look at a lot of box scores.  Always have.  Always will.  Most teams have fairly stable lineups day in and day out.  Maybe a platoon player moves a couple guys.  Rocco's lineups are like no one else.  

I'm ready for a new manager.  

[Otaknam]

Austin Martin and Alan Rosen are playing great? 

[DocBauer]

A healthy Buxton is the best player on the team and has been for years, with all due respect to current and former teammates. And your best hitters should get the most AB/PA on the team. And despite not being a big OB% guy he really likes hitting #1 and has been performing well there.

But surely he can adapt to batting #2, just a single spot lower in the lineup, and have an actual baserunner to knock in. 

I can appreciate Keaschall in the #2 hole as well. It just so much sense for him to be a sparkplug in front of power bats like Buxton and Wallner, and Lewis if he ever gets his swing consistent again. 

Maybe that happens next season. Maybe it's just been about getting Keaschall and Buck BACK and they will make the move yet this season. Time will tell. But I'd absolutely have Keaschall ahead of Buxton.

It's about getting the most AB/PA for your best hitters as stated. But the term "leadoff" is kind of a misnomer isn't it? Whoever hits in the #1 spot is only ever guaranteed to "leadoff" once in a game. The concern should be setting up the lineup for best overall results.