Grading Terry Ryan

[Brock Beauchamp]

In my view, such notions still fall under the umbrella of punting; but to extend your point further, I think the Twins wanted to see what they had in their veterans too; Deduno, Walters, De Vries, the bullpen guys, Morneau, Willingham--the idea isn't just to establish trade value, but their might be value here worth keeping around. The young guys: Hicks, Arcia and Gibson benefit from reps, but guys like Florimon, Escobar, Parmelee, Plouffe, Diamond are given chances to prove their worth, where the Twins could have benefited--in the short term--from FA replacements, but really diminish their evaluation of their future assets.

 

The evaluation of the GM is pretty complex, and really, that our minor league system (and it's deep, too) is perhaps the best in baseball is being underplayed throughout this thread. That's not an accident, guys.

 

Which is why I'm not mentioning position players. For the most part, I'm fine with the positional squad the Twins rolled out on opening day.

 

Picking up one more FA starter would have allowed the AAAA vets to still get their starts, the front office only needed to use a shorter leash.

[jokin]

Coulda woulda shoulda. Saunders and Marcum are not having good seasons. If Ryan signed them there would be people complaing that Ryan can't judge talent.

 

Ryan would have had to been clairvoyant to anticipate Marcum's March neck injury. I never liked or wanted Joe Saunders. Scott Feldman (like Paul Maholm last year) has already been successfully moved for prospects by the Cubs. (Remember that they also got stuck with Scott Baker and his injury- why always the excuses for the Twins FO? The Cubs have been very shrewd, spending a little money on guys they can leverage for midseason trades- in this case they got a very decent SP prospect and additional big International pool money). The Twins clearly needed to go one bridge further in shoring up the Rotation, and they can't use payroll as an excuse.

 

There certainly were trade options for SP acquisition that haven't been fleshed out too much on TD- Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco and Jason Vargas all could have been acquired without giving up much at all (or trades made from positions of depth). These kind of woulda, couldas and shouldas are why the GMs make the big bucks.

[PseudoSABR]

Picking up one more FA starter would have allowed the AAAA vets to still get their starts, the front office only needed to use a shorter leash.

So a pitcher like Saunders is the difference between a C (or a perhaps a D, as you suggest) and an A for you, RP? I still think you're* making mountains out of molehills in terms of TR's offseason mistakes.

 

*like so many are

[jokin]

So a pitcher like Saunders is the difference between a C (or a perhaps a D, as you suggest) and an A for you, RP? I still think you're* making mountains out of molehills in terms of TR's offseason mistakes.

 

*like so many are

 

Where did he say anything about Saunders being the acquisition target? Other teams in similar situations this year have turned their molehills into foothills, if not necessarily mountains. In Ryan's case, I think you can fairly say he's made his molehill into a mound--Yippee!

[TheLeviathan]

The evaluation of the GM is pretty complex, and really, that our minor league system (and it's deep, too) is perhaps the best in baseball is being underplayed throughout this thread. That's not an accident, guys.

 

It's also only partially TR's work. If you pull Arcia, Rosario, Sano, and Kepler out of this, it's still a damn good farm, but not probably the best in baseball.

 

Truth is, Ryan built a major league roster that has yielded only a few bright spots in the way of long-term positivity, virtually nothing of trade value, and a roster that is neither contending nor in line for a top 5 pick. Honestly, I can't imagine a scenario much worse at the beginning of July.

[PseudoSABR]

Honestly, I can't imagine a scenario much worse at the beginning of July.

Really? While the major league club is treading mediocrity nearly all of the prospects are putting up relative league leading numbers, it's gnarly. But it goes beyond that, and I (and others) have already put the context out there.

 

The Twins are what we thought they would be. Some random second-tier starting pitching aside, I'm not sure you're best or even moderate outcome was ever realistic. Frankly, if this is the worst case scenario, you're expectations for the 2013 might have been a bit lofty.

[jokin]

It's also only partially TR's work. If you pull Arcia, Rosario, Sano, and Kepler out of this, it's still a damn good farm, but not probably the best in baseball.

 

Truth is, Ryan built a major league roster that has yielded only a few bright spots in the way of long-term positivity, virtually nothing of trade value, and a roster that is neither contending nor in line for a top 5 pick. Honestly, I can't imagine a scenario much worse at the beginning of July.

 

This is a Carlson School of Business-level question, but probably will be on the summer school final in the School of Sports Management-

 

The Cleveland Indians were 68-94 in 2012 with a payroll of $65.4M. They currently are 45-42 with a payroll of $80.6M.

 

The Minnesota Twins finished just behind the Indians in the AL Central, with a record of 66-96 and a payroll of $100.4M. They currently are 37-47 with a payroll of $82.0M.

 

Both teams are similarly middle demographic market teams, housed in modern, downtown ballparks, playing in the same league and same division.

 

Contrast and compare the performance of the FO and the 2 teams' General Managers, Chris Antonetti and Terry Ryan. Taking all factors into account....assign letter grades for their performance over the first half of the 2013 season....and provide evidence which club will be more successful at the end of the 2014 season.

 

Show your work.

[jokin]

Here you go. Cheers, for thoroughness on your part.

 

Sorry, I stand corrected on the info, but not on my point. I came mid-thread to this specific page and was only going off of what you posted from Brock's edited post in your post #33.

[TheLeviathan]

Really? While the major league club is treading mediocrity nearly all of the prospects are putting up relative league leading numbers, it's gnarly. But it goes beyond that, and I (and others) have already put the context out there.

 

I'm not talking about the minors. The minors are in great shape in part to Ryan and an excellent draft last year. So let's stay on topic here, part of the issue is people keep shifting to the minors when we focus on the majors and vice versa. We should all agree the minors are in great shape and Ryan has been a big part of that. So let's be done shifting the argument back and forth please.

 

As for this season, the Cubs last week got more for their future for Scott Feldman than the Twins likely will for all their offseason investments the last two years combined. Read that again if it helps sink in.

 

I wrote a long post, but suffice to say my expectations weren't lofty...I just didn't want the wheels spinning. That's what this season feels like.

[jokin]

As for this season, the Cubs last week got more for their future for Scott Feldman than the Twins likely will for all their offseason investments the last two years combined. Read that again if it helps sink in.

 

I want to be of aid in helping this fact sink in.

[John Bonnes]

We have a few members thumping their chests in this thread. Just a reminder: when you review your posts, ask yourself: is this going to make the moderator think I'm an emotionally immature kindergartner?

 

Or even better - have I already been banned because a moderator thinks I tend to act like a kindergartner? Is this going to reinforce that belief?

 

If not, you might want to consider sitting out, or changing your tone.

[Brandon]

"Surprisingly enough, Correia was one legit starter. We were all wrong there. But relying on Pelfrey was a mistake. He was a great third option. But not a second option." Brock Beachamp.

 

I think Vance Worely was the 2nd pitcher with Pelfry the 3rd one. I think coming into this season we had: Corriea, Worely, Pelfry, Diamond, Hendriks, Dedunno, Walters, Gibson, Hernandez, and one more injured pitcher who used to be real good but too injured. I forgot his name... That's ten starters though I would like another one too as I expected a lot more out of Worely and Diamond. On the plus side this season it looks as though Dedunno is turning into a solid player as he has a 10-8 record the last 2 seasons in 150ish innings. Corriea surprised everyone. One more success story will make it more promising going into next year. Maybe it will be Gibson.....Correia, Dedunno, Gibson, FA (Hughes) Diamond/ Meyer now the rotation would be starting to shape up... Grade C wanted one more solid starting option or atleast one more of them to work out.

 

The bullpen has been lights out... 8 relievers who all had sub 4.00 ERA until a recent slump by 2 pitchers plus how long and how much is Perkins signed for... can't ask for more then that.... A+

 

 

The offensive pieces are there but Parmelee hasn't produced and Doumit, Carroll, and Hicks slumped to start the season. and we don't have much in the MI but they seem to have been pretty clutch in making runs score when it counts. So they are an on base guy away from being average run scoring team. Arcia, Hicks, Parmelee, Dozier, and Florimon are getting a chance to develop. B for not getting a backup CF option.

 

 

Team objectives for this season:

 

1. Play meaningful games in August not gonna happen unless you mean meaningful tryouts. D

2. loaded with prospects: A+

3. Acquired useful inexpensive pieces/ prospects for long term: Pressley, Roenecke, Theilbar, Dedunno, May/Meyer, Doumit, Escobar, A

4. The team is not financially hamstrung with bad contracts past this year so we have lots of room to sign a pitcher this offseason. Though this grade is only an A if we take advantage of this.

 

Overall that's an an A- at worst because we didn't have 1 more starter step up and show they could be a number 2/3 starter and no backup plan for Hicks in CF. Everything else is working out in its own way and Hicks has been turning it around as the year progresses.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm not talking about the minors. The minors are in great shape in part to Ryan and an excellent draft last year. So let's stay on topic here

You quoted me in terms of evaluation of the GM, not of the 25 man roster. For my part, it's totally disingenuous to separate the big league club from the minor league clubs--it's an organization, and I'll judge TR's job in terms of his management of the organization. I probably put more weight on process rather than yield than you do.

 

If your point is that TR didn't put a winning product on the field for 2013, well the record shows you're right, and it would be foolish to contend with that point.

[jokin]

"Surprisingly enough, Correia was one legit starter. We were all wrong there. But relying on Pelfrey was a mistake. He was a great third option. But not a second option." Brock Beachamp.

 

I think Vance Worely was the 2nd pitcher with Pelfry the 3rd one. I think coming into this season we had: Corriea, Worely, Pelfry, Diamond, Hendriks, Dedunno, Walters, Gibson, Hernandez, and one more injured pitcher who used to be real good but too injured. I forgot his name... That's ten starters though I would like another one too as I expected a lot more out of Worely and Diamond. On the plus side this season it looks as though Dedunno is turning into a solid player as he has a 10-8 record the last 2 seasons in 150ish innings. Corriea surprised everyone. One more success story will make it more promising going into next year. Maybe it will be Gibson.....Correia, Dedunno, Gibson, FA (Hughes) Diamond/ Meyer now the rotation would be starting to shape up... Grade C wanted one more solid starting option or atleast one more of them to work out.

 

The bullpen has been lights out... 8 relievers who all had sub 4.00 ERA until a recent slump by 2 pitchers plus how long and how much is Perkins signed for... can't ask for more then that.... A+

 

 

The offensive pieces are there but Parmelee hasn't produced and Doumit, Carroll, and Hicks slumped to start the season. and we don't have much in the MI but they seem to have been pretty clutch in making runs score when it counts. So they are an on base guy away from being average run scoring team. Arcia, Hicks, Parmelee, Dozier, and Florimon are getting a chance to develop. B for not getting a backup CF option.

 

 

Team objectives for this season:

 

1. Play meaningful games in August not gonna happen unless you mean meaningful tryouts. D

2. loaded with prospects: A+

3. Acquired useful inexpensive pieces/ prospects for long term: Pressley, Roenecke, Theilbar, Dedunno, May/Meyer, Doumit, Escobar, A

4. The team is not financially hamstrung with bad contracts past this year so we have lots of room to sign a pitcher this offseason. Though this grade is only an A if we take advantage of this.

 

Overall that's an an A- at worst because we didn't have 1 more starter step up and show they could be a number 2/3 starter and no backup plan for Hicks in CF. Everything else is working out in its own way and Hicks has been turning it around as the year progresses.

 

The offensive pieces are there but Parmelee hasn't produced

 

Parmelee had a bad April like many others on the Twins, this is masking a lot of underlying improvement since then- in short, he has produced at or above league average since May 1.

 

For May, he OPSd at- .750>>>>vs>>>> League Average RF OPS- .753

For last 30 days, OPS- .800>>>>vs>>>> League Average RF OPS- .754

 

The jury is, and should be, still out on Parmelee, which is why he needs to play every day to let a fair and final verdict to come in for him.

 

 

 

Corriea surprised everyone.

 

While I accept that Correia hasn't been a complete bust, I'm not sure if this is true- as borne out by his underlying numbers, and the trend is clearly not his friend. As documented elsewhere, Correia has had the good fortune of an unsustainably high strand rate and perhaps more importantly, of pitching the majority of his games against the weaker teams in MLB (In his 17 starts, only 5 teams have winning records!), and a large over-represented percent of teams who rank in the bottom quartile in team batting stats. (7 of 17 starts have been against teams in the bottom quartile in batting).

Given that, his underlying stats show that he is who we thought he'd be. Besides overperforming his career ERA number- he's currently at 4.19 compared to 4.51 for his career- the other numbers aren't as flattering.

 

2013 tERA: 5.21>>>> Career tERA: 4.77

2013 FIP: 4.64>>>>> Career FIP: 4.49

2013 SIERA: 4.49>>> Career SIERA: 4.43

2013 OBA: .292>>>> Career OBA: .268

 

And more foreboding, since the great April start for Correia, here are his ERA results by month:

 

May: 6.26

June: 4.29 (League average in June was 3.97- 5 of 6 starts against teams with losing records)

July: 6.00

 

Not consistent enough for trade bait to a contender, but just good enough to keep his spot in the rotation- pretty close to what we thought he'd be.

[jokin]

The appropriate grade is: Incomplete. The Twins are very much like last year's team but have benefitted from the implosion of the CWS. The OF for pitching trades? I'll be generous and say "Incomplete". Span and Revere are experiencing some difficulty--but compared to: Hicks, Mastroianni, and Worley?! Meyer and May are still in the minors so we have no choice but to wait to see how they pan out. AFIC, prospect rankings are not a substitute for major league performance--which is what is required to assess those two trades--and that will take a few years.

 

Success at the low minors? That's very nice and is encouraging, but not a substitute for major league success. Hence, we must wait before we grade. It's a very big jump from low minors to the majors.

 

Then there is the mostly unstated: what constraints is Ryan operating under? Is it (as I believe) a mandate to bring the payroll below $70MM and rebuild from the draft, the discard pile, the hospital, and a trade? There appears to be about $10-15MM available to add veteran placeholders to field a team that isn't terrible (Mia/Hous) and obscure the fact that the Twins are in total rebuild mode. If the constraints are onerus, it is highly unlike that we will be seeing a winning team soon and grading Ryan's performance would have to include the imposed constraints.

 

 

 

Span and Revere are experiencing some difficulty--but compared to: Hicks, Mastroianni, and Worley?!

 

Revere had a horrible start in April and got benched- not much has been going difficultly for him since then. In fact, his season has rebounded quite nicely and he has clearly shown that he has made the adjustment to the NL and is steadily improving month-over-month. In addition to his 20 SB, (Dozier leads the Twins w/ 7), here are his month-to-month slash lines since May 1:

 

May: .312/361/.351/.712

June: .364/.390/.414/.804

July: .381/.381/.429/.810

Last 30: .394/.417/.455/872

And he's had a large chunk of his ABs batting 7th, 8th or 9th in the lineup, no plate protection at the top of the order like Joe Mauer provided in years' past.

[TheLeviathan]

You quoted me in terms of evaluation of the GM, not of the 25 man roster. For my part, it's totally disingenuous to separate the big league club from the minor league clubs--it's an organization, and I'll judge TR's job in terms of his management of the organization. I probably put more weight on process rather than yield than you do.

 

If your point is that TR didn't put a winning product on the field for 2013, well the record shows you're right, and it would be foolish to contend with that point.

 

i wouldn't separate it either but it was the context. You have stated the big league roster was punted, which heavily implies that not a lot of effort was put to it. It didn't make sense to grade that well. My. Point is that 2013 should have been about the future....playing time for youth, signing and playing guys to use as trade value, and avoid treading water with a mediocre record. I'd argue only the first of those is even partially true. That disappoints me personally....it makes this season look like an utter waste for everything but our minors. And that seems wasteful in and of itself.

[jokin]

 

 

 

 

Things I would have done different:

-I would have signed one more pitcher. They were in on Saunders and perhaps others but failed to close the deal.

-I would have signed Marcum and McCarthy. Neither of those would have been better than Correia as of right now. I think many of the other pitchers others have advocated for were unrealistic. I thought Pelfrey was a worthwhile risk if they had signed one more free agent.

-I would have signed a one year stopgap CF once I traded Span and Revere. However, looking back at the options there wasn't really anyone better than Mastro and Clete....

 

I give him a B+. I thought the plan was sound but I thought they could have been a little more strategic with how they acquired pitchers.

 

 

 

 

I concur with all of your excellent strategic points, making these moves would have clearly garnered a B+ in my book. But.... I don't see how he merits that grade by NOT doing these things.

[Brandon]

I agree that Parmelee needs more playing time no argument here.

I think the thing that surprises me about Corriea is that he has an even record and is on pace to throw 200 innings. no one else on our staff is coming close to 200 innings. Do I expect Corriea to sustain his current numbers pace? I do not. Hopefully he gets traded for a prospect or something to a contender. With the conversion from the national league I was expecting numbers just short of what Pelfry has year to date. So to me his current numbers are a huge surprise.

[old nurse]

I want to be of aid in helping this fact sink in.

 

Chicago received the equivalent of PJ Walters and Jeff Gray. The Feldman trade in no way enhanced the future of Chicago unless it was the cash considerations.

[TheLeviathan]

Chicago received the equivalent of PJ Walters and Jeff Gray. The Feldman trade in no way enhanced the future of Chicago unless it was the cash considerations.

 

Jake Arrieta isn't young for a spec, but he doesn't fit either of those. He was still a well thought of prospect within the last two years. And they got significant international money.

 

There is no Twins equivalent, the closest would be Hendricks if you magically added a significant amount of talent to him. (Not to menton Strop is closer to a Jared Burton comp if you look at his 2012)

 

The point of my comment was to elicit shock that a player like Feldman on a one year deal, generated this much while we look to have much less value to trade. There is a good chance we get nothing close to Arrieta much less the extra prospect cash.

[Riverbrian]

I wanted one of the upper tier Free Agent Starters that were still young enough to be decent 3 years from now.

 

Sanchez... Jackson... McCarthy... Haren... Marcum.

 

When we didn't sign one of those 5... I would have immediately graded Terry Ryan's offseason as a C.

 

Now that 4 of those 5 have been struggling in 2013. I upgrade Terry Ryan's off season to a B... Because I would have wasted significant cash on Edwin Jackson.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Largely, TR punted this season from the beginning, and I really hope that this coming offseason, with the emergence of Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Meyers looming, we'll see the Twins spend more boldly in the offseason. I'll be pissed if the Twins flounder again next offseaon, I just can't get too worked up about this past offseason, with all the young talent TR (and BS) have acquired over the past several years.

Agreed spending an additional $100m on payroll this past off season would not have made the improvements required that these upcoming prospects have the potential to bring. It's this upcoming off season where the right acquisitions in FA and trades combined with the young talent that can make this team a contender for years to come.

[John Bonnes]

Wow. Way to turn around the direction of a thread guys. This is what Twins Daily forums should be. Kudos to all of you. I'm totally serious.

[old nurse]

Jake Arrieta isn't young for a spec, but he doesn't fit either of those. He was still a well thought of prospect within the last two years. And they got significant international money.

 

There is no Twins equivalent, the closest would be Hendricks if you magically added a significant amount of talent to him. (Not to menton Strop is closer to a Jared Burton comp if you look at his 2012)

 

The point of my comment was to elicit shock that a player like Feldman on a one year deal, generated this much while we look to have much less value to trade. There is a good chance we get nothing close to Arrieta much less the extra prospect cash.

 

Arietta's 5.75 ERA the last 3 years does not make him anything more than filler on a roster. Strop was a mop up reliever at best in Baltimore. as well as for his career. People see the speed of his fastball. The teams do not use him as an 8th inning guy for a reason. Hence the Burton comp doesn't hold

[howieramone1406390264]

Wow...well first Arrieta was their opening day starter last year. Your spin just isn't backed by facts. For a one year, low risk, FA overpay they got Worley, Burton, and two international slots. That is tremendous and the odds of the Twins matching that by the deadline are low. I'm not sure why you are so blantently twisting reality for this point.

Maybe I'm just old-fashioned, but wouldn't it make sense to wait the 24 days to see if they do, before pointing the finger that they didn't?

[PseudoSABR]

Comparing Arrieta to Worley (who is two years younger) and Strop to Burton (who has a much, much better track record) sure looks like a biased comparison to me.

 

The Cubs didn't get much in terms of future value for Feldman. The Twins got more for Liriano last year...

[TheLeviathan]

Maybe I'm just old-fashioned, but wouldn't it make sense to wait the 24 days to see if they do, before pointing the finger that they didn't?

 

I should probably flag your post since it seems like you are daily misconstruing a fairly clear point, but I will explain: saying "odds" being "low" about5 what they "will do" is forecasting a future event, not declaring it won't happen. Given what we have to shop in light of their health/production paired with league need is what I cite for that forecast.

 

I Hope they prove me wrong, I only stated given the situation, I doubt they do. if you wish to take umberance with that....by all means. BUt please at least try and treat the point fairly.

[TheLeviathan]

Comparing Arrieta to Worley (who is two years younger) and Strop to Burton (who has a much, much better track record) sure looks like a biased comparison to me.

 

The Cubs didn't get much in terms of future value for Feldman. The Twins got more for Liriano last year...

 

Except that I openly admitted that there isn't a good comp, just giving a closer one. Worley/Burton as a comp to Arrieta/Strop is about several infinity times more accurate than Walters/Gray. And I may be underselling how much better it is.

 

Last I checked, the Twins didn't get two AAA flyers and money to sign two international specs. They sort of missed that other half. Why are we working so hard to confuse the value the Cubs got? The point is that we should strive to spin the same kind of trades:

 

1. Former opening day starter who was once among a team's top prospects but strugglingg.

2. A hard throwing reliever who had recent big league success but is struggling.

3. Money to sign one or several young international specs.

 

And this is equivalent to Walters/Gray? That is a mind-blowing spin job right there.

[drjim]

This is a Carlson School of Business-level question, but probably will be on the summer school final in the School of Sports Management-

 

The Cleveland Indians were 68-94 in 2012 with a payroll of $65.4M. They currently are 45-42 with a payroll of $80.6M.

 

The Minnesota Twins finished just behind the Indians in the AL Central, with a record of 66-96 and a payroll of $100.4M. They currently are 37-47 with a payroll of $82.0M.

 

Both teams are similarly middle demographic market teams, housed in modern, downtown ballparks, playing in the same league and same division.

 

Contrast and compare the performance of the FO and the 2 teams' General Managers, Chris Antonetti and Terry Ryan. Taking all factors into account....assign letter grades for their performance over the first half of the 2013 season....and provide evidence which club will be more successful at the end of the 2014 season.

 

Show your work.

 

So you think the franchises were in a similar talent situation at the end of last year? I would disagree with this assessment.

[Brandon]

Would next offseason be the one to go after Free agents or would the one after be better as next year we will be breaking in May, Meyer, Sano, Pinto, maybe Buxton towards the end of the season. Plus some of our pitching prospects may move up the pecking order and be ready to contribute the following year and we may not need a FA starter at all. Any time would be a good one to go out and get a SS though. Lots of SS options after the 2014 season if no one wants to be a fully competent player there by then... We should save our cash for one of these guys.

 

Asdrubal Cabrera (29)

J.J. Hardy (32)

Jed Lowrie (31)

Hanley Ramirez (31)