Grading Terry Ryan

[TKGuy]

TR has been back at the helm for 1.5 years now, looking back, here is how I grade him:

 

Minor leagues: A

 

TR has brought the Twins minor league system back to the place where the Twins are expected to be. I think he has had good drafts, although Houston gave us a gift by taking Correa. He has continued and the Twins continue to open their pocketbook for the international signing (which Bill Smith did with Sano although he should have kept to prospects). Arcia, Hicks and Gibson are up, and Sano, Rosario and Buxton aren't far behind. I loved the trades of Span and Revere for Meyer and May, the type of pitchers the Twins desperately needed. Finally, all levels are competitive unlike the Bill Smith era. The Kernels have been a smashing success here in Iowa.

 

Major League club: B

 

 

The Twins are back to what I thought they were going to be. Not enough pitching to survive. TR has made great signings on Correia, although there was almost a mutinee on TD, but Pelfrey wasn't ready to come back. Picking Pressly in Rule 5 and Thielbar off the scrap heap have reaped huge rewards with no risk. The Doumit re-signing is also paying dividends. To be fair, TR bombed on Marquis ( who must be a NL picher) Anybody who thought the Twins would compete this year were dreaming. However, it is fun to watch the young kids play. I'm hoping that we see some more players in the minors get a shot, like Albers and Collabello. All the experts believe the Twins return to contenders is only a year or two away.

 

Decisions to come:

 

Gardy: Is it time to move on? TR will take the blame for the on-field play because it's obvious that Gardy doesn't have the talent. Gardy has improved his patience for the Young guys. I think TR brings the staff back next year unless the wheels completely come off.

 

Morneau: I don't think TR sees Parmelee as the long term answer at 1B. I believe he will try to bring him back for a couple of years (yes, I do agree with Reusses). He will bring a veteran presence to an infield that could have 2-3 rookies who are known for their hitting and not defense.

 

Trade deadline: Not much to see here. With the Hammer out and having a down year and Justin's power tailing off, the Twins don't have many chips. TR won't trade Perk unless some other team gets stupid. I coud see Carroll or Duensing be traded away, but not much else. Correia has returned to his 4 ERA, however he is eating innings.

 

Overall, stability has been restored and we are heading in the right direction, even though it is extremely frustrating at times.

 

Overall grade: B+

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I'd definitely give him an A or A- in the minors, I'd struggle to give him anything better than a C for the MLB club and after this past offseason, it might even be a D.

[greengoblinrulz]

Not a fan of Ryan these days and giving him credit for our minor league progress is short sighted as Bill Smith reign had a lot to do with it also

Ryan's value is evaluating minor league talent but I believe MLB duties for a GM have passed him by in this new era.

We thought it was the Dome, but Ryan as a GM is cheap at heart and prefers to bargain basement shop than acquire legit talent

My belief is that he is the problem in the organization

[PseudoSABR]

I don't think it makes a lot sense to divide the grades for majors and minors, as with the Revere and Span trades diminish one to improve the other.

 

Judging this past offseason, I think is tricky. I don't think there was much (beyond signing Sanchez or Grienke) that would have really improved the club. I'm curious what TR could have done to earn an A?

[TheLeviathan]

While I'd definitely give him an A or A- in the minors, I'd struggle to give him anything better than a C for the MLB club and after this past offseason, it might even be a D.

 

Yeah, the explanation was something like "Well, he's not smart enough to be more than a C student unless he works really hard. So that he got Cs is to be expected"

 

Well, sure. Unless he had worked harder to improve that product. Which he very well could have.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm curious what TR could have done to earn an A?

 

You almost seem to start with the idea that doing what he did qualifies for a B because your starting point is a hopeless surrender or that a passive approach is acceptable even with enormous flexibility to spend. (You seem to throw away the idea that adding a legit #2 starter wouldn't be wildly successful in and of itself)

 

So I'm not sure anyone is going to meet your criteria no matter what they suggest.

[JB_Iowa]

I would also rate him pretty well on the way he has built the minor league system BUT, please do not forget that the international signings started during his hiatus; and that the Twins have had the benefit of high draft picks because the MLB team has been so horrific. He has done a good job of beefing up the minors through trades but has also missed some opportunities.

 

As for the major league club, its a mess. And a mess that is not attributable just to bringing up young kids. Go and take a look at the rest of the schedule for a year. It's pretty likely that this is a 90+ loss team again and it would not be surprising if their record was worse than last year.

 

I really felt that the entire organization needed a new direction not the "back to the future" move of rehiring Terry Ryan. Nothing I've seen at the Major League level has changed that opinion. Last off-season we read a lot of people speculating on the money Ryan could (and in some of their opinions), WOULD, spend on starting pitching. It didn't happen. And I strongly doubt that it will happen in the future.

 

As has been said elsewhere on these forums, you cannot build a championship team through the draft alone. You need good drafts, good trades, a good international program AND a willingness to spend in free agency. I can't see Terry Ryan embracing that philosophy. When he retired the first time, he acknowledged that he didn't want to deal with the looming free agencies of Hunter and Santana and that someone else might be better at dealing with contractual situations. If anything, those "deals" have just gotten tougher while he was on hiatus. Why would anyone think that he will now embrace dealing with free agents and other contractual issues?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think it makes a lot sense to divide the grades for majors and minors, as with the Revere and Span trades diminish one to improve the other.

 

Judging this past offseason, I think is tricky. I don't think there was much (beyond signing Sanchez or Grienke) that would have really improved the club. I'm curious what TR could have done to earn an A?

 

Sign two short term and legit starters, take a little risk on a guy that costs more than 45 cents, and he gets a very good grade.

 

I didn't necessarily expect a winner because right now, the team is rebuilding. What I DID expect was an MLB rotation that didn't embarrass itself.

 

Surprisingly enough, Correia was one legit starter. We were all wrong there. But relying on Pelfrey was a mistake. He was a great third option. But not a second option.

 

As for Span and Revere, he gets both MLB and MiLB credit for that. Trade from a strength to bolster the entire org. Good, smart moves. The injury to Mastro was really unfortunate. Some people fault him for not picking up another CF and I see their point but IMO, 2014 was all about Hicks. If Mastro could have been a stopgap for a couple of months, I was fine with that.

[PseudoSABR]

Sign two short term and legit starters, take a little risk on a guy that costs more than 45 cents, and he gets a very good grade.

Sounds good in theory, but when we started dropping actual names, things get a bit hazy. Everyone's a great arm-chair GM in the abstract.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sounds good in theory, but when we started dropping actual names, things get a bit hazy. Everyone's a great arm-chair GM in the abstract.

 

Saunders, Dempster, Marcum. Hey, it may not have panned out perfectly. Some guys might fail. All I wanted to see was a legitimate effort to not be last in the league in ERA again. I'm not asking for much, just the hope that this team might be worth watching past June.

[gunnarthor]

Generally, he's done pretty well. We forget how bad our offense and bullpen were when he came back. Willingham, Carroll, Doumit were solid additions. Fien and Burton helped improve the pen. He signed Perkins to a really nice team friendly deal. I liked his trades and his drafts. He hasn't made any bad moves that would hurt the team in the long run.

 

Payroll is a different issue. There seems to be two general schools of thought on this. 1) The team is rebuilding so it doesn't really matter what payroll is now and Ryan should increase payroll as the team gets closer to competing. I share this view. 2) Payroll should be around 100m at least and the Twins (either Ryan or Pohlads) are screwing over the fans by not investing completely in the club after the taxpayers helped fund Target Field. I understand this view and put more blame on Pohlads than Ryan.

[gunnarthor]

Saunders, Dempster, Marcum. Hey, it may not have panned out perfectly. Some guys might fail. All I wanted to see was a legitimate effort to not be last in the league in ERA again. I'm not asking for much, just the hope that this team might be worth watching past June.

 

Marcum started the year on the DL which would have really screwed up our April, and has been worth -0.5 WAR since then while pitching in the NL. Saunders is having a Correa like season. I liked Dempster but not sure I would have given him his 3rd year. Still, I don't see how those 3 would have made us much, if any, better.

[PseudoSABR]

Saunders, Dempster, Marcum. Hey, it may not have panned out perfectly. Some guys might fail. All I wanted to see was a legitimate effort to not be last in the league in ERA again. I'm not asking for much, just the hope that this team might be worth watching past June.

Right. Dempster or Saunders (who the Twins were supposedly in on) would be valuable assets (though I'm not sure why Dempster would want to play here, with how poorly we've played and his age even if we did overpay him). But Ryan and his staff simply took different risks, some of them worked out (KC), many have not (Harden, Pelfry, Worley).

 

Largely, TR punted this season from the beginning, and I really hope that this coming offseason, with the emergence of Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Meyers looming, we'll see the Twins spend more boldly in the offseason. I'll be pissed if the Twins flounder again next offseaon, I just can't get too worked up about this past offseason, with all the young talent TR (and BS) have acquired over the past several years.

[beckmt]

I liked Marcum, but not would not have worked. Hard to spend money unless you want to break the bank on a top of the line starter. Twins may have to do that in about 2 years, when they are ready for the next step. Not all trades work out as well as we would have liked, but is has not been lack of effort. Probably a C+ at the major league level and an A- for the minors. Bill Smith has a lot to do with the current crop of Twins new talent at the major league level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm completely behind Ryan's long term view of the org but with the Twins nearly limitless payroll options in the short term, I don't see why some of that money isn't dropped on some short term vets. Just because this team won't win the World Series doesn't mean fans should be okay with punting this season.

 

Sometimes it's okay to win 78 games in a season. "World Series" and "63 Mets" are not the only options.

[TheLeviathan]

How can you acknowledge punting the major league roster and not have at least a below average grade?

 

Ryan's dumpster diving feeds into the bullpen perfectly, it's a great strategy and it has paid off repeatedly. But that isn't enough to offset the rest of the mistakes on this roster.

 

Personally, I'd have given an A for Sanchez and Correia. Or Saunders, Marcum, and whomever. He also could have gone outside the box and tried to overpay a guy like Laroche, give him the DH at-bats (not Doumit) and hope he generates trade value.

 

Lots of ways to skin a cat, not nearly as hopeless as some seem to think.

[TKGuy]

I agree that Pelfrey was not the best option, but the team is not hampered by a contract like Edwin Jackson, who a lot of us thought we should go after. Ryan has been burned by contracts like Joe Mays and Blackburn, however, both Santana and Radke worked out. If anything, I'd like the Twins to go after Gallardo in a trade, since the Brewers are selling.

I believe that we could have in the end fleeced then Phillies because I would give Worley a break until next year because of the surgery.

[TKGuy]

Who's available in the FA market for starters?

[gunnarthor]

Who's available in the FA market for starters?

 

I believe Phil Hughes is probably the best available. A few others - Baker, Santana, Marcum, Kazmir etc. It's a pretty bad class.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html

[PseudoSABR]

I believe Phil Hughes is probably the best available. A few others - Baker, Santana, Marcum, Kazmir etc. It's a pretty bad class.

 

2014 MLB Free Agents: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

If the Twins are willing to take some risks, there's some interesting names out there like Lincecum, Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Volquez. Adding one or two of these guys for incentive laden, short term contracts could be smart, and the kind of risk I hope they take. Nolasco will probably get Edwin Jackson money, though.

[PseudoSABR]

How can you acknowledge punting the major league roster and not have at least a below average grade?

My point is it's difficult to judge his job, because his work has not come to fruition, punting the season might be part of that process, we'll see. It's too bad Willingham, Morneau, etc, haven't established more trade value.

 

Honestly, if the Twins were any better they'd be in the almost competitive nexus of blunder, that leads the Twins to doing nothing.

[Kwak]

The appropriate grade is: Incomplete. The Twins are very much like last year's team but have benefitted from the implosion of the CWS. The OF for pitching trades? I'll be generous and say "Incomplete". Span and Revere are experiencing some difficulty--but compared to: Hicks, Mastroianni, and Worley?! Meyer and May are still in the minors so we have no choice but to wait to see how they pan out. AFIC, prospect rankings are not a substitute for major league performance--which is what is required to assess those two trades--and that will take a few years.

 

Success at the low minors? That's very nice and is encouraging, but not a substitute for major league success. Hence, we must wait before we grade. It's a very big jump from low minors to the majors.

 

Then there is the mostly unstated: what constraints is Ryan operating under? Is it (as I believe) a mandate to bring the payroll below $70MM and rebuild from the draft, the discard pile, the hospital, and a trade? There appears to be about $10-15MM available to add veteran placeholders to field a team that isn't terrible (Mia/Hous) and obscure the fact that the Twins are in total rebuild mode. If the constraints are onerus, it is highly unlike that we will be seeing a winning team soon and grading Ryan's performance would have to include the imposed constraints.

[TheLeviathan]

My point is it's difficult to judge his job, because his work has not come to fruition, punting the season might be part of that process, we'll see. It's too bad Willingham, Morneau, etc, haven't established more trade value.

 

Honestly, if the Twins were any better they'd be in the almost competitive nexus of blunder, that leads the Twins to doing nothing.

 

I don't understand this line of thinking. If your point is that he successfully didnt upgrade them enough to be relevant.....I would argue he didn't sufficiently unload some players in that case. Burton, Hammer, Morneau, Doumit, even Diamond. If the point was to tank, this was a crappy roster for that too.

 

they didn't move assets with value and then failed to invest enough to add guys as future assets as proven by our barren cupboard of deadline commodities. I'd argue they are exactly in that blundering nothingness at the deadline.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Success at the low minors? That's very nice and is encouraging, but not a substitute for major league success. Hence, we must wait before we grade. It's a very big jump from low minors to the majors.

 

While I can see giving those trades an incomplete (I don't agree but I can understand the argument), neither May nor Meyer are in the low minors. Both have shown success at the biggest talent increase in MiLB, and that's the jump from A+ to AA.

[howieramone1406390264]

I don't understand this line of thinking. If your point is that he successfully didnt upgrade them enough to be relevant.....I would argue he didn't sufficiently unload some players in that case. Burton, Hammer, Morneau, Doumit, even Diamond. If the point was to tank, this was a crappy roster for that too.

 

they didn't move assets with value and then failed to invest enough to add guys as future assets as proven by our barren cupboard of deadline commodities. I'd argue they are exactly in that blundering nothingness at the deadline.

You can certainly argue it, but what no one can do is prove it. 25 days in baseball is a long time. An organization with a gun to it's head, which fortunately the Twins are not, may well feel their cupboard is far from barren of deadline commodities if they had prospects such as Buxton and Sano.

[TheLeviathan]

You can certainly argue it, but what no one can do is prove it. 25 days in baseball is a long time. An organization with a gun to it's head, which fortunately the Twins are not, may well feel their cupboard is far from barren of deadline commodities if they had prospects such as Buxton and Sano.

 

Um....Buxton and Sano aren't trade commodities because Ryan would have to be drunk and deaf to trade them. There is no way either of those guys are shopped and nor should there be. If there is anything we know without question about Ryan it's that elite specs aren't moving at the deadline.

 

The biggest issue with where this team stands is that it has nothing to shed for future value. Ryan constructed a team that is vaguely competing with no trade assets other than their young cheap closer. I call that a problem.

[The Wise One]

Saunders, Dempster, Marcum. Hey, it may not have panned out perfectly. Some guys might fail. All I wanted to see was a legitimate effort to not be last in the league in ERA again. I'm not asking for much, just the hope that this team might be worth watching past June.

Coulda woulda shoulda. Saunders and Marcum are not having good seasons. If Ryan signed them there would be people complaing that Ryan can't judge talent.

[jharaldson]

While I can see giving those trades an incomplete (I don't agree but I can understand the argument), neither May nor Meyer are in the low minors. Both have shown success at the biggest talent increase in MiLB, and that's the jump from A+ to AA.

 

Trevor May is currently 65th in era in AA and has not thrown a quality start in his last 3 outings. This is his second go at AA and he is muddling along in the middle of the pack.

 

Alex Meyer was doing much better in AA but has not pitched in over a month and has no timetable to return from injury.

 

Terry deserves an incomplete on those moves but I would feel a lot better if one of those guys was developing a Buxton/Sano like buzz.

[drjim]

Terry Ryan did this offseason pretty much exactly what I thought was prudent last offseason. I thought there would be 2-3 starters signed, one of those coming off an injury, one acquired in a trade, some cheap pickups to bolster the bullpen and that would be about it.

 

Things I would have done different:

-I would have signed one more pitcher. They were in on Saunders and perhaps others but failed to close the deal.

-I would have signed Marcum and McCarthy. Neither of those would have been better than Correia as of right now. I think many of the other pitchers others have advocated for were unrealistic. I thought Pelfrey was a worthwhile risk if they had signed one more free agent.

-I would have signed a one year stopgap CF once I traded Span and Revere. However, looking back at the options there wasn't really anyone better than Mastro and Clete.

 

I don't think he punted the season as much as he wanted to get the young guys plenty of reps. Ultimately the reps of Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Parmelee, Plouffe, Gibson, Pressly/other bullpen arms are more valuable then a handful of extra games that might have been won with some free agents in those positions.

 

I give him a B+. I thought the plan was sound but I thought they could have been a little more strategic with how they acquired pitchers.

[PseudoSABR]

I don't think he punted the season as much as he wanted to get the young guys plenty of reps. Ultimately the reps of Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Parmelee, Plouffe, Gibson, Pressly/other bullpen arms are more valuable then a handful of extra games that might have been won with some free agents in those positions.

In my view, such notions still fall under the umbrella of punting; but to extend your point further, I think the Twins wanted to see what they had in their veterans too; Deduno, Walters, De Vries, the bullpen guys, Morneau, Willingham--the idea isn't just to establish trade value, but their might be value here worth keeping around. The young guys: Hicks, Arcia and Gibson benefit from reps, but guys like Florimon, Escobar, Parmelee, Plouffe, Diamond are given chances to prove their worth, where the Twins could have benefited--in the short term--from FA replacements, but really diminish their evaluation of their future assets.

 

The evaluation of the GM is pretty complex, and really, that our minor league system (and it's deep, too) is perhaps the best in baseball is being underplayed throughout this thread. That's not an accident, guys.