non-Vikings NFL off season news

[gunnarthor]

Bears trade a sixth rounder for an IOL, Jonah Jackson, from the Rams. Jackson was hurt most of last year.  

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44108614/sources-bears-getting-lineman-jonah-jackson-rams

[nicksaviking]

My initial reaction was that the Vikings could have made this deal!

My second reaction was, I guess don't know a lick about this guy and for all I know there are a dozen free agents who'd be a better fit for this system.

Stupid OL, it's the worst position group for us armchair fans to offer our sage wisdom about.

[gunnarthor]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

My initial reaction was that the Vikings could have made this deal!

My second reaction was, I guess don't know a lick about this guy and for all I know there are a dozen free agents who'd be a better fit for this system.

Stupid OL, it's the worst position group for us armchair fans to offer our sage wisdom about.

Yeah, on some Viking blogs I read that Jackson graded out about as well as Risner and the Bears are paying 17m for him. On the other hand, PFF grades are wildly subjective, so ...

[gunnarthor]

And Bears add another guard for a 4th rounder.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44120523/source-bears-trade-chiefs-all-pro-guard-joe-thuney

[Mike Sixel]

Good players are being released.....

[Mike Sixel]

Geno Smith to Vegas for a 3rd. Seattle supposedly interested in Darnold. 

[TheLeviathan]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Geno Smith to Vegas for a 3rd. Seattle supposedly interested in Darnold. 

Geno has one year at 25M.  He's a better QB than Darnold IMO.  

It's probably a good indication that Darnold shouldn't be looking at more than 25M AAV.

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Geno has one year at 25M.  He's a better QB than Darnold IMO.  

It's actually 1/$31M, I saw that 25M figure earlier tonight on Spotrac but then it updated to 31M. And the Raiders are now negotiating an extension for him that is expected to be in the $40-45M range... yikes. I think this is a bad move for them. Geno's a middle of the road QB, who was fine as a $25M per year QB, not in the 40s!

I'm fairly confident that Seattle is going to land Darnold now, I doubt they make this move without having a clear idea of how to replace Geno. He's also a good fit in new OC Klint Kubiak's system. My guess is he gets 3/$105M (35 per year).

[Mike Sixel]

58 minutes ago, Danchat said:

It's actually 1/$31M, I saw that 25M figure earlier tonight on Spotrac but then it updated to 31M. And the Raiders are now negotiating an extension for him that is expected to be in the $40-45M range... yikes. I think this is a bad move for them. Geno's a middle of the road QB, who was fine as a $25M per year QB, not in the 40s!

I'm fairly confident that Seattle is going to land Darnold now, I doubt they make this move without having a clear idea of how to replace Geno. He's also a good fit in new OC Klint Kubiak's system. My guess is he gets 3/$105M (35 per year).

Vegas trying to win now with that roster.....

[gunnarthor]

38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Vegas trying to win now with that roster.....

Everybody's trying to win. That's the one great thing about the NFL.

[Mike Sixel]

41 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Everybody's trying to win. That's the one great thing about the NFL.

True, but there's good plans and bad plans.... But I agree, teams are trying to win much faster in the NFL than other sports

[TheLeviathan]

10 hours ago, Danchat said:

It's actually 1/$31M, I saw that 25M figure earlier tonight on Spotrac but then it updated to 31M. And the Raiders are now negotiating an extension for him that is expected to be in the $40-45M range... yikes. I think this is a bad move for them. Geno's a middle of the road QB, who was fine as a $25M per year QB, not in the 40s!

I'm fairly confident that Seattle is going to land Darnold now, I doubt they make this move without having a clear idea of how to replace Geno. He's also a good fit in new OC Klint Kubiak's system. My guess is he gets 3/$105M (35 per year).

Yeah, I figured an extension was coming.  I think Darnold gets something more like 2/60 but the guarantees make it closer to 1/30.  Guess we'll see, :)

[Vanimal46]

*broadly gestures at Geno Smith 

*points back to Kwesi

Dude got played like a fiddle 

[TheLeviathan]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

*broadly gestures at Geno Smith 

*points back to Kwesi

Dude got played like a fiddle 

How are you figuring that?

[Vanimal46]

10 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

How are you figuring that?

Main arguments were a team wouldn’t trade real draft capital back for a QB like Darnold and extend him for $40+ million a year (Geno Smith is going to do just that)

Other argument is what if we have to hold onto Darnold’s cap hit on day 1 of free agency and beyond? This trade was made before day 1 of free agency. 

[Vanimal46]

Sam Darnold is better than Geno Smith today and the next 3+ years. I would bet a lot of money on that 

[TheLeviathan]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sam Darnold is better than Geno Smith today and the next 3+ years. I would bet a lot of money on that 

Yeah, this is where we significantly disagree.  I think 3 years from now it's much more likely Carroll and Geno had some success and Darnold is a backup somewhere.

If Sam Darnold and his agent don't have a set team and play ball then you absolutely do risk the cap room to leverage a pick.  Hardball works both ways.  This move only cements, IMO, that Darnold is still seeking a clear suitor.  (For weeks the presumption was the Raiders and that was all smoke)

I would suggest that's only further reinforced by the fact that the NFL rumor mill thinks Rodgers and Darnold are in play for the Vikings.  Teams are playing their chips tight.  That environment isn't one well served to gamble in.

[TheLeviathan]

Maybe this is a more succinct way to put it: In order for the tag and trade to work the following has to be true:

1) Darnold and his agent are willing to play ball to facilitate themselves to a certain team

2) There exists at least one clear suitor who is pursuing aggressively and doesn't want to risk the market.

3) The money in his expected contract is close to the tag amount

4) Draft compensation reflects that there are other suitors at this price tag and willing to also trade.

At one point I was thinking this was possible, but at that time I believed the Raiders had shown their cards.  Yesterday threw that completely out of the water.  I don't think 3 is true based on all reporting.  He's likely to come in 25-40% lower than the tag.  As a result, I don't think 4 is true.  There may be multiple suitors, but not at 40M.  Since there is hesitation on asking price, I think that eliminates 1 and 2.  Sucks to lose out on a potential pick, but the current QB carousel seems like crazy town.

[gunnarthor]

5 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

*broadly gestures at Geno Smith 

*points back to Kwesi

Dude got played like a fiddle 

Yeah, gotta agree with Levi here. Not really seeing your math.

[nicksaviking]

10 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sam Darnold is better than Geno Smith today and the next 3+ years. I would bet a lot of money on that 

Tom Brady clearly disagrees.

How exactly were the Vikings supposed to tag and trade Darnold to the Raiders, when the Raiders obviously wanted someone else anyway?

[Danchat]

That's a lot of money for a guy who turns 31 this year. That's more guarantees than Josh Jacobs got in a 4 year deal with the Packers and it makes him the 6th highest paid RB in the league. NFL cap inflation is gonna be a thing that we will witness the next few days, but I'm still not a fan of this move. They have to pair him with a RB2 or he will break down again by the end of the season - if not quicker now that he's older.

[nicksaviking]

It was a miracle Jones played 17 games last year. I also wasn't interested in locking up a veteran RB early, mostly because I'd like to get IOL/DL free agents signed before they worry about who the veteran RB on the roster will be.

However, even if they draft a rookie RB high, this team almost certainly was going to add a veteran to share the load. While I'm less high on Jones than many Vikings fans, the guys AFTER Jones do look pretty dreadful. I don't know that I'd rally want any of them on the team. We'll see how free agency plays out, but I guess there's a good chance that come July I'll be happy to have budgeted 10M for Jones instead of say 6M for Jamaal Williams or any million for Gus Edwards.

 

[gunnarthor]

I don't mind this move. He was a good fit and we're getting him back at the same price, not a raise. I think we might also draft a RB but I don't think any of the 3rd round RBs are ready to carry the load. We were going to need a running back in free agency and Jones is legit good and plays well in the system.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't love the contract but there are some things to be aware of: resigning him saves a 2.4M cap hit for dead money this year.  So the contract is probably closer to 7 than 10.  

We know that KOC really likes Jones and he's a leader on that team.  They were going to have to have at least one vet so I can swallow this.  I just don't love the price.  (But, as Dan said, I think we need to buckle up for a lot of AAVs being higher than projected)

[Mike Sixel]

This seems like Vikings news?

Way more than I'd pay, but it's fine. 

[Mike Sixel]

Metcalf to the Steelers, who are going to pay him 30 million per year. For a second, which seems light. 

[gunnarthor]

Josh Allen resets the qb payscale  

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44184294/sources-josh-allen-bills-reach-record-6-year-330m-deal

 

[TheLeviathan]

2 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Josh Allen resets the qb payscale  

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44184294/sources-josh-allen-bills-reach-record-6-year-330m-deal

 

Yeah, the salary cap bump is going to mess with stuff it seems.  Jake Matthews just got 2 years and 45M.

These guards are going to be close to 20M....

[Danchat]

Quote

For a second, which seems light. 

It only cost a 2nd because it required giving him a massive deal. They probably fetch a 1st + more if they didn't have to pay up like that.

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Josh Allen resets the qb payscale  

He's still behind Dak Prescott's $60M. Allen already had 4 years under contract so I'm not sure if those $55M seasons are coming way down the road or if it's actually a pay raise for the next 4 years.

[Vanimal46]

On 3/8/2025 at 3:01 PM, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, gotta agree with Levi here. Not really seeing your math.

You’ll see my math on Monday when Darnold signs a massive contract.