Why Are Projection Systems So High on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax?

[KBJ1]

Yeah the BP looked great on paper last year, and then it wasn't. 

We had more potential depth last year with all the reclamation project signings. But they all failed and everyone else got hurt or floundered.

This year we have no Leftys, 3 or more coming back from injury, and no proven backups.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, KBJ1 said:

Yeah the BP looked great on paper last year, and then it wasn't. 

We had more potential depth last year with all the reclamation project signings. But they all failed and everyone else got hurt or floundered.

This year we have no Leftys, 3 or more coming back from injury, and no proven backups.

We still have a huge pipeline of young guys. We only need 2 of about 12 to take a step forward. I like those odds. They will all contribute something in ‘25 and beyond. Most teams would love to have our entire pitching staff and its issues. 

[minman1982]

The problem with bullpens and relief pitching is volatility. The underlying metrics could be good but all it takes is a few unlucky bounces and poorly timed runs given up to lose a game or two. With that said, both Duran and Jax have the stuff to be dominant out of the bullpen.

[ashbury]

On 2/1/2025 at 11:47 AM, Parfigliano said:

WHIP and inherited runners scoring is how I would judge a relief pitcher.

If you like WHIP then why not go the next step and Include power, namely OPS-against or something similar?

[jmlease1]

19 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Yeah the BP looked great on paper last year, and then it wasn't. 

We had more potential depth last year with all the reclamation project signings. But they all failed and everyone else got hurt or floundered.

This year we have no Leftys, 3 or more coming back from injury, and no proven backups.

The bullpen wasn't just great on paper last year, they were legitimately good until the end of the season when you had implosions going on as some of them crapped the bed like almost everyone else on the team. 

Ask yourself how many teams have proven "backups" in their bullpen at the start of a season? And while we don't have a LHP in the bullpen right now, maybe we're better off letting guys like jax, duran, and sands face more LH hitters rather than run out a guy like Okert who shuts down the lefties, but gives it all back against the righties.

It's interesting to see people demand that relief pitchers have a "defined role" that only involves specific innings or saves. Can't they also have a role that relates to "if the 2-6 hitters are coming up in the last 3 innings, you're gonna pitch if we have a lead"? While does it have to be so determinative based on innings and saves to supposedly get the best out of guys? because isn't what really happens is that your best relievers get to pad their stats a little by setting down the bottom of the order in late innings, rather than face the best the other team has to offer as much?

Duran and Jax have shown success in high leverage roles for multiple seasons in a row which certainly suggests that they'll be good again, especially with so many of the peripheral stats being in their favor.

It'll be interesting to see if Cleveland repeats their success; their bullpen wasn't as dominant in 2023; Gaddis was still starting, Smith hadn't arrived yet, and Herrin wasn't good. Clase was nowhere near as good in 2023 as 2024, but his 2021 & 2022 seasons suggest that he will continue to be good in 2025, even if it's not as insanely good. It's fair to see some potential for regression there. Cleveland also had amazing health in 2024 from their bullpen, and who knows if that will continue into 2025?

[bean5302]

20 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Yeah the BP looked great on paper last year, and then it wasn't. 

We had more potential depth last year with all the reclamation project signings. But they all failed and everyone else got hurt or floundered.

This year we have no Leftys, 3 or more coming back from injury, and no proven backups.

I don't really care too much about having a mediocre lefty in the bullpen. I'll take Duran or Jax vs. a LHB before I'd take a mediocre lefty vs. a LHB. Having lefties in the bullpen for LOOGY type matchups just isn't as valuable as it used to be. Sands, Alcala and others are perfectly serviceable vs. LHBs, but there are a couple guys out there who've struggled (Tonkin).

[bean5302]

On 2/1/2025 at 2:53 PM, Fatbat said:

Im old school. I like wins and losses<-(not so much) saves and holds tell enough for me. Blown saves is a good indicator of things going south with a closer. 

Wins vs. Losses are tough for me because there's a team component. We all saw how the Twins' lineup was totally inept for large portions of the season. The starter would leave the game after the 5th inning with the score 2-2 or 3-2 and the bullpen would then be tasked with pitching 4.0 scoreless innings because you know the Twins weren't scoring another run. That type of scenario is going to result in a ton of losses, but rarely a "win."

The Twins were 12th in MLB in WPA through the All Star break, but 26th after that point. A lot of that had to do with the Twins' hitters not showing up.

[rdehring]

Very interesting discussion guys.  Love it!

Got me thinking of the use and importance of the "inherited runners" stat.  At first glance has a lot of value.  But not all inherited runners are equal.  If Reliever X comes into a lot of games with no outs and a couple guys in scoring position, he is gonna give up some runs.  Reliever Y comes in with a runner on first and two outs, he is much more likely to strand them.  Imagine there is a way for someone in today's world to develop a stat that would both track inherited runners scoring and weigh how likely they should have scored. 

Don't know if these thoughts have any value to the discussion, but they were passing thru my brain while reading all your comments above.

[Karbo]

On 2/1/2025 at 10:53 AM, Nick Nelson said:

The Twins ranked second in the AL in bullpen WAR last year, so I would say yes, it did.

After they got rid of some guys that were originally supposed to be "one of the best pens" key contributors. I don't look at stats as much as results. I watched every game last season and I sure saw a lot of runs and leads, given up.