Poised for a Breakout: The Twins Should Consider a Joe Ryan Extension

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

According to reports Buxton wanted to stay so much that he was holding up the deal to get a no trade clause.

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would I care what was all over social media and you now openly admit was a lie? You stated your opinion was that Falvey didn't want to extend Buxton. I said all the information we have suggests that's incorrect. It took over 4 years to get the contract done, actually. His injuries mixed with superstar production was a large part of it. But both sides were very open afterwards that they all stayed in very close contact and negotiated for over 4 years. It took 7 rounds of negotiations to get it done (according to this Dan Hayes article).

Escalators and incentives for millions of dollars are complicated things. If he wins the MVP in year 1 does that boost his base pay for the remainder of the deal? By how much? If we give you a no trade clause can that escalator go away? Or lower? Is the NTC good for the whole deal of just the first 3 years? Both sides can be interested and still not get something done. The Astros likely wanted Bregman back and Bregman very likely wanted to go back there, but it sure looks like he's going elsewhere. Same with Correa and the Astros. Wanting the same thing and wanting the same thing at the same cost are two very, very different things.

I didn't say anything about "common knowledge." And the serious negotiations happened for multiple years. You made claims about social media saying Buxton didn't want to be here and then said you thought Falvey extended him for more than Buxton was asking for. What's that based on? And, again, Levine ran contract negotiations while he was here. Was actually very well publicized that he ran the Buxton negotiations. So, he's the one you want to point the finger at if you think they gave Buxton more than he was asking for. If you don't believe me maybe you'll believe Buxton's agent Al Goetz who was quoted as saying "Thad was the front-runner, he was the guy who pioneered the whole thing. … Our willingness to be open all the way through this and Thad saying ‘I’m not giving up’ (got this done).'" 

Buxton can be interested in staying but still want to get paid $100+ million. If the FO isn't offering that then he's not just going to sign because he likes it here. The team can want him here and not just offer him an NTC just because they like him. They aren't giving up their ability to manipulate their roster as they see fit just because they like him. These contracts are complicated things, and his was even more because of his injuries. They take time and sometimes don't get done. It's the same for every team.

The front office, lead by Levine who ran contract negotiations while he was here, were in contact with Buxton trying to get things done the entire time. Plenty of articles about this all. Your opinion doesn't seem to be based on very accurate information.

I never said that Buxton said he didn't want to be here. Why do you continue to put lies in my mouth. I said that it was common knowledge on social media. I don't give much credence to social media but when nothing is being made public you wonder.

You said it was common knowledge that Buxton really wanted to stay in MN all along.

Twins Daily Analyst Nick Nelson had an article "What the Hell Are the Twins Doing With Byron Buxton? 11/16/21. Where he quotes Dan Hayes & Ken Rosenthal that Buxton's time in MN was in limbo & Twins were gauging trades, He later reported that Jim Pohlad was reluctant to move Buxton. Nick was expressing a lot of confusion with a lot of conflicting info. One possibility he stated was that Buxton didn't want to stay in MN because of being screwed in '18. he wanted to move to the South and or he wanted to test the FA waters. If it was common knowledge that Buxton really wanted to stay in MN all along, why did Nick mention him leaving as a possibility?

You said that it took 4yrs to extend Buxton, if FO really wanted to extend Buxton why did it take so long? When Buxton's requests were finally made public, we could see that they were very team-friendly so this brings up again the question why did it takes so long? I never refuted that FO & Buxton were in contact throughout this period but how serious were they? That is my point.

You say you have a lot of proof but it has nothing to do with what I said. If you put into context what I really said you can go back to any social media site you can confirm what I said to be true on what was being said. You just trying to discredit me. There were opinions that I gave & I stated them as opinion which I hope everyone here has the right to do & they should be taken with a grain of salt

 

 

[chpettit19]

45 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I never said that Buxton said he didn't want to be here. Why do you continue to put lies in my mouth. I said that it was common knowledge on social media. I don't give much credence to social media but when nothing is being made public you wonder.

You said it was common knowledge that Buxton really wanted to stay in MN all along.

Twins Daily Analyst Nick Nelson had an article "What the Hell Are the Twins Doing With Byron Buxton? 11/16/21. Where he quotes Dan Hayes & Ken Rosenthal that Buxton's time in MN was in limbo & Twins were gauging trades, He later reported that Jim Pohlad was reluctant to move Buxton. Nick was expressing a lot of confusion with a lot of conflicting info. One possibility he stated was that Buxton didn't want to stay in MN because of being screwed in '18. he wanted to move to the South and or he wanted to test the FA waters. If it was common knowledge that Buxton really wanted to stay in MN all along, why did Nick mention him leaving as a possibility?

You said that it took 4yrs to extend Buxton, if FO really wanted to extend Buxton why did it take so long? When Buxton's requests were finally made public, we could see that they were very team-friendly so this brings up again the question why did it takes so long? I never refuted that FO & Buxton were in contact throughout this period but how serious were they? That is my point.

You say you have a lot of proof but it has nothing to do with what I said. If you put into context what I really said you can go back to any social media site you can confirm what I said to be true on what was being said. You just trying to discredit me. There were opinions that I gave & I stated them as opinion which I hope everyone here has the right to do & they should be taken with a grain of salt

 

 

You don't need to use opinions. That's the point. You're refusing to use the actual information. Buxton, his agents, Falvey, Levine, and the Pohlads have given you the answers. What Nick guessed at doesn't matter. I gave you a link to an article. It talked about things that held it up. I listed one in my previous comment. His agents wanted his base salary to go up in subsequent years if he won the MVP in 2022. Twins didn't want that.

It is now known knowledge that Buxton wanted to stay. I didn't say it was known before he signed. I haven't said anything about before he was signed. Who cares about rumors when you have the facts? You're basing your opinion about Falvey on rumors you've admitted were wrong, and called lies. So, yes, I'm actively discrediting that. Because that doesn't make any sense. He wanted something he didn't get (higher base pay for MVP award). He wanted something he did get (no trade). His demands and his leverage changed a lot over the years because of his performance and injuries.

Again, many players want to stay on many teams who want that player to stay on that team and they can't come to an agreement. Even after negotiating for a long time. Joe Ryan may come to the end of his deal and want to stay and not end up staying because they can't agree on terms even if both sides wish they could. Both sides may want to do an extension right now, but if they don't agree on terms it doesn't happen. Freddie Freeman negotiated with Atlanta for a long time and couldn't get a deal done. When both sides are telling you the negotiations were good and everyone was trying and the rumors were wrong it's probably time to quit going off internet rumors you yourself call lies.

[Doctor Gast]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You don't need to use opinions. That's the point. You're refusing to use the actual information. Buxton, his agents, Falvey, Levine, and the Pohlads have given you the answers. What Nick guessed at doesn't matter. I gave you a link to an article. It talked about things that held it up. I listed one in my previous comment. His agents wanted his base salary to go up in subsequent years if he won the MVP in 2022. Twins didn't want that.

It is now known knowledge that Buxton wanted to stay. I didn't say it was known before he signed. I haven't said anything about before he was signed. Who cares about rumors when you have the facts? You're basing your opinion about Falvey on rumors you've admitted were wrong, and called lies. So, yes, I'm actively discrediting that. Because that doesn't make any sense. He wanted something he didn't get (higher base pay for MVP award). He wanted something he did get (no trade). His demands and his leverage changed a lot over the years because of his performance and injuries.

Again, many players want to stay on many teams who want that player to stay on that team and they can't come to an agreement. Even after negotiating for a long time. Joe Ryan may come to the end of his deal and want to stay and not end up staying because they can't agree on terms even if both sides wish they could. Both sides may want to do an extension right now, but if they don't agree on terms it doesn't happen. Freddie Freeman negotiated with Atlanta for a long time and couldn't get a deal done. When both sides are telling you the negotiations were good and everyone was trying and the rumors were wrong it's probably time to quit going off internet rumors you yourself call lies.

Buxton wanting or not wanting to stay has nothing to do with my opinion. I was just explaining the atmosphere of the time before everything came down with Buxton. Everything else is debatable which I don't want to do with you.

BTW I didn't see any link

[bean5302]

18 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If you can buy an asset for less than market value you should. Trade the player later if you have to.

They don't have to buy him or take on the risk of buying him. They can trade him now; today. Unless you're suggesting the Twins can sign Ryan to a long term deal to an amount so far under market value that Ryan's trade value will increase? I suppose it's possible, but it's a pretty high bar to clear.

Right now, BaseballTradeValues has Joe Ryan at +53.5 surplus trade value. An AFV of 72.5, which is a 3 WAR season expectation. Salary is projected at $19MM over the next 3 years, so probably like $4MM, $6MM, $9MM, but of course, whatever team trades for him also still have a team option for 1 year and $22MM-ish coming as a QO or a Comp A pick which will be the expected return if he turns it down.

Okay, so what would the market like to see as a contract with Ryan in terms of length? 5yrs? More than that I think it would be viewed as a negative. So 5 years. How much does it cost to buy Ryan out of 2 free agency year? Ignoring the copy/paste Bailey Ober article content for poor comps, I'll take a look at Spotrac which figures Joe Ryan is worth 5yrs $91MM today in free agency. Probably fair-ish. 5yrs $66MM probably gets it done, IMHO. The Twins pay a little extra through arb years for Ryan to accept losing out on ever getting a big free agent contract. $5MM, $10MM, $15MM, $18MM, $18MM. Ryan will be entering his age 34 season. Value wise, surplus is probably essentially the same or maybe a little lower after the extension than it is right now. I'd expect AFV to be like 100-125 over that 5 year period so his surplus would be like +34ish to +59ish. Doesn't really move the needle, but it adds risk to the Twins if Ryan's shoulder blows out or something.

It's unlikely Joe Ryan or any other established, quality, arb eligible player who will hit free agency in their 30s is going to sell their free agent years at a big special discount just to help the team increase trade value.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

They don't have to buy him or take on the risk of buying him. They can trade him now; today. Unless you're suggesting the Twins can sign Ryan to a long term deal to an amount so far under market value that Ryan's trade value will increase?

My comment wasn't about Joe Ryan specifically, but in general. If you can extend a player for less than they're worth you should, even if you can replace them from within. If Joe Ryan was willing to take a 6-year deal that only paid him $10M a season in his 30s (he likely isn't) they should sign him.

[tony&rodney]

Perhaps Ryan, Miranda, Vazquez, and Yasser Mercedes would bring back Jarren Duran. 

[laloesch]

On 12/20/2024 at 9:06 AM, In My La Z boy said:

MLB Network has a crawl going saying Twins are listening to offers on Lopez.

If we trade Pablo, extending either Ryan or Ober may happen? 

I guess I don't like this but if we get a motherload for him? Not sure what "motherload" means?

Not the best shedding salary idea I've heard. 

 

If they trade Lopez what is the point of extending Ryan, Ober, and retaining Correa, Buxton, etc.?  Might as well blow the whole team up and do a full rebuild at that point.  Lopez's contract is not the issue.