Sometimes We Don't Know What We Think We Know

[stringer bell]

Half a season or even more isn't a guarantee. The Twins have several players who looked to be well on their way to establishing themselves as regulars or perhaps stars and now maybe the jury is out.

Royce Lewis--Since the All-Star break, Royce has a .685 OPS. He broke a lengthy slump yesterday with two hits and two RBI. Lewis' overall numbers for the season are good, but not at a superstar level.

Jose Miranda--He has a .600 OPS in the second half. The power is seemingly absent, only ten extra-base hits among his 31 hits, with no homers. He's played a satisfactory third base, but he has limitations as a defender.

Brooks Lee--Lee came out of the box hot, but has looked overmatched for quite a while. Since returning from the Injured List on September 1, he's 5-32 with three extra-base hits and three RBI. 

Willi Castro--An All-Star at the break, Castro has slumped noticeably, particularly as a right handed hitter. He has a .605 OPS since the All-Star break. Castro has been asked to play a lot of shortstop and center field, positions where he is stretched.

Jorge Alcalá--6.62 ERA since the All-Star break with an astonishing seven home runs allowed in 17.2 innings. Walks well above league average and strikeouts at league average despite what looks like great stuff. His overall numbers now look a lot like 2021. 

None of these guys is old--the oldest are Castro at 27 and Alcalá at 29--but their performance over the course of this season seems to beg for a longer runway to see if they can sustain high-level performance.

[Riverbrian]

438 different players across MLB have had at least 100 AB's so far this year.

.712 is the league average OPS. 

From Xavier Edwards at .812 to Mitch Garver at .612 -- 302 of those 438 players currently have an OPS .100 points + or - of the league average. 

From Garrett Mitchell at .762 to Kyle Manzardo at .662 - 176 of those 438 players currently have an OPS .050 points + or - of the league average. 

There is a lot of average play on rosters.

Slumps are what bring players down to average and Hot streaks bring players up to average. Creating a big big pile in the middle. 

Hot and Cold streaks stop and start on a dime. Timing is everything.

The players you mention are getting a little too prolonged though. 

Royce is not playing at a superstar level but I think he is a superstar talent and I think there is only a handful of superstars so you got to ride this one out and hope that he corrects himself back to superstar while remaining healthy. 

Jose Miranda... I think he will get back to swinging the bat well. He goes bad when he starts swinging at everything and he seems to be chasing a bit. 

Brooks Lee... I like him getting some AB's right now... Getting AB's in 2024 was supposed to happen. Whatever he is right now... he is. I'm not worried about it but also hoping for team health to the point where he doesn't need to be rostered for the playoffs. I'm excited about his future... but was always cautious about his beginning and I am not afraid of youth at all. 

I think Castro has been over relied upon. I like him... he's a solid member of any roster... I don't want to be negative toward him... he has earned praise... however... we've managed to create a world where he is has become essential and is utilized like he is essential. He is leading the team in AB's by a fairly significant margin... he has regressed to major league average.    

Alcala... He's got stuff... Bullpen small sample size volatility can be misleading. 18 appearances for a total of 17.2 innings since the all-star break. 13 Earned Runs over that time frame. He hung zeroes in 11 of those 18 appearances.

Crooked number in 3 of those appearances for a total of 9 of those 13 runs. The 5 runs against Texas over 0.2 is going to take awhile to overcome for improved statistical optics. He won't have enough time to hang zeroes to make his post all-star break numbers look decent. I still think he can hang a zero when we need him. 

 

[DocBauer]

I might copy a few things @Riverbriansaid, but I'd like to add, at the least.

LEWIS: For all the glorious moments he's given us in 2023 and this season, let's not forget how inexperienced he is. He has already exceeded games played at the ML level, despite some injury setbacks. Do we dare remind ourselves time missed from his early knee injuries?

He's a star player in the making, but he's still human, and still learning, adapting, and growing. Just like his defense at 3B, solid, will be better, and the throws are probably just an abnormality that he'll adjust to. Heck, maybe he even moves to 2B, or even 1B to make room for Lee and Keaschall or Culpepper,  WHO KNOWS? But the talent is undeniable! Expectations to be an MVP are just silly due to the flashes of what he can be, and might just be.

LEE: The glove and the instincts play wherever he plays. The bat will be fine, if not very good. He's a rookie who started late due to his back, and then he had a shoulder injury. He's going to be fine. Everything he does and learns this season only sets him up better for 2025 and beyond.

CASTRO: I absolutely LOVE this kid and I'd like to see him stick around for a few more years. I think he's proven himself as a quality ML player. But he's been asked to play almost DAILY this entire season. I hear whispers he's a little banged up. Everyone is this time of year. And while he excells playing all over, injuries have forced him to be a daily stalwart that has probably drained him. Best thing that could happen foe him is a return of Correa so he could take a day or two off.

ALCALA: Let's just accept that when a RP has a bad stretch, poor results get magnified. Tonight, he allowed a BOMB to put the game against the Reds out of reach. He's got the stuff to be an important part of the pen going forward. BUT, I'd argue ALL DAY LONG on how he's been used this year. The demotion he had earlier this season actually seemed to give him a new focus. And he came back firing high velocity bullets like he's never shown before! But the reality is he was MISUSED early in the season by being asked to throw 2 innings, occasionally 3, when coming back from 2 years of injury. Honestly I've NEVER seen a talented arm treated this poorly! 20 ML IP in 2022 and 2023 and he's at 50 plus right now. 

Throw him 1 inning at a time next year and you have a potential stud.

MIRANDA: He had to get healthy and right. He did. And his work at 3B has turned him in to at least a competent option there. And then he hurt is back. He hasn't been horrible since his return, but he hasn't been the same. I don't recall him being injury plagued until his shoulder issue in 2023. Is the back issue an abnormality, or part of the recovery process? I think a healthy Miranda is pretty good. But an unhealthy Miranda starts to "reach" too much for contact.

Can the Twins ever have a "normal" season in which so many good players have injuries??!! Buxton may never have a full season. But this is getting ridiculous. There is a theory, presented here on TD by our own visiting expert physical therapist, that when a major injury happens...witness Lewis for example...that it takes the rest of the body to adjust for a year to adapt and get used to all of motions and activities of playing ball to compensate and return to "normal".

If this is accurate, then Royce and Miranda could be expected to feel more "normal" in 2025. The same might be hopefully stated for Buxton since his knee seems to be sound, and his hip issue is reported to be scar tissue breaking up, which might be part of the whole previous knee issues he had. (Ugh). HOPEFULLY, Correa will have new shoes that provide the support his feet need to eliminate and further plantar issues.

Yes, I'm digressing. I'm just adding to the "what if" scenario issue of improvement going forward for the players mentioned, the team, and the overall impact.

But I also want to add that in addition to the "what's up with these 4 players" I think we should take a moment to recognize some good things taking place.

Wallner and Larnach seem to have established themselves.

Despite very mixed results, every inning thrown by SWR, Festa, and Matthews is building them up for 2025 and beyond, even if a couple of them have been pressured to finish the season.

Lewis and Miranda will be fine if healthy. Alcala needs to be used properly. Castro is good, and important, and will be fine if he can just get a break once in a while.

 

 

[stringer bell]

Almost every player has peaks and valleys, that is the nature of the game. When Lewis returned from his last injury and kept hitting homers, how many of us would have answered the following question in the affirmative: Is Royce Lewis one of the top 20 players in baseball with a future as a perennial All-Star, MVP candidate and possible Hall of Famer (if healthy)?

On Miranda: Should José Miranda be considered a regular who starts more than 120 games a year and gets playing time at first, third and DH?

On Alcalá: Can Jorge Alcalá be counted on to get important outs in the stretch drive and post-season?

I think the sentiment on each of these questions has changed since mid-season.  

[Schmoeman5]

Need more Kool-aid. The new car shine has wore off and reality has set in. 4 years ago Byron Buxton was touted as a TOP 5 player in all of baseball.  Last years grand slam fest catapulted Lewis. Combined with this year's hot start. I don't think Lewis will ever be a top 20 player. I never did. That doesn't mean he can't be a really good player. If you really watch baseball, what you saw was Lewis killing mistakes. Now. Perhaps due to a combination of factors like injury or being tired due to the long grind or just the fact pitchers now have a "book" on him or the uncertainty of where he'll play, he's struggling. So when you say we don't know what we think we know, it should be titled things we HOPED for. Fans love to build up players. It should be tempered. There are always going to be struggles along the way. Hell. Look at Judge.  He's in his second "slump" of the year. But between those 2 slumps he's been pretty damn good.

[glunn]

I really like this thread. I am also turning off the TV when the Twins are down by more than 5 runs.

We will get through this, somehow.

 

[Linus]

Sometimes I don’t understand everything I know about that