The Consistent Improvement of Trevor May

[Boone]

Although many would consider Trevor May’s season to this point disappointing, and in many ways it has been, he has made marked improvements from month-to-month:

April: GS 5: Innings per GS: 5 BB/9: 5.7 K/BB: 1.5 ERA: 4.62

May: GS 6: Innings per GS: 5.5 BB/9: 4.4 K/BB: 1.8 ERA: 3.82

June: GS 3: Innings per GS: 6.7 BB/9: 2.7 K/BB: 3.8 ERA: 1.80

 

This kind of consistent improvement is an excellent sign in May’s development and makes his rather pedestrian numbers look much more promising. When considering May’s history, it isn’t surprising that he has started to take a step forward. Since 2009, May has repeated each league he has been to (A, A+, and now AA). At every level, his second stint has been much more impressive than the first. It appears that this trend is continuing this season, his second in the Eastern League.

 

This makes a mid-season promotion of May a little tricky. If he continues to show improvement, especially in his walk-rate, one would expect him to be promoted, especially because he played all of last season at AA. However, with such a boom-or-bust prospect, teams tend to be more conservative.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

Good stuff.

One thing we don't know is why May is improving. If the Rockcats' coaching staff has turned a corner with him, I guess I would be reluctant to move him right now.

That being said, if his consistency continues through July, it's tough to argue against a promotion to Rochester for the last month+ of the season.

[Mike Sixel]

Good stuff, thanks for posting it. I'd promote him at some point....so that next year he is repeating AAA for the first half of the year. The walks thing is huge, huge.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Good to see him settling down, though I am not surprised. I saw him play last year in New Britain; he made the Rockcats batters (including Arcia, Benson & Colabello) look downright foolish.

[fairweather]

*argh

[greengoblinrulz]

Part of May that bothers me is MN is wasting an option year on him this year with really no shot of calling him up. He's still 2 deep (behing Gibson & supposedly Albers) with no real impression that they would even call him up to AAA.

I understand that if he has another 2-3 good ones in AA, he could go up but AAA is gonna start activating guys like Hendriks, Blackburn etc soon further blocking a guy like May or even Darnell.

Im hoping May gets an Aug/Sept recall & gets his feet wet for 5-10 starts to get ready for next spring.

[howieramone1406390264]

Part of May that bothers me is MN is wasting an option year on him this year with really no shot of calling him up. He's still 2 deep (behing Gibson & supposedly Albers) with no real impression that they would even call him up to AAA.

I understand that if he has another 2-3 good ones in AA, he could go up but AAA is gonna start activating guys like Hendriks, Blackburn etc soon further blocking a guy like May or even Darnell.

Im hoping May gets an Aug/Sept recall & gets his feet wet for 5-10 starts to get ready for next spring.

You're not confusing May with Meyer are you? No way he gets 5-10 starts at the show. As I posted on another tread, about a month ago, Jim Callis said May's path to the bigs is thru the bullpen. I'm just hoping he remains a starter this season.

[Boone]

You're not confusing May with Meyer are you? No way he gets 5-10 starts at the show. As I posted on another tread, about a month ago, Jim Callis said May's path to the bigs is thru the bullpen. I'm just hoping he remains a starter this season.

 

There are two reasons why many people, including Callis, think May's future is as a relief pitcher:

1. He fails to go deep into ballgames. May's size and ability to keep his velocity late in starts indicate that he has the ability to be a starter. The reason he has failed to reach the 7th inning so frequently is because he walks so many batters. However, if he continues to improve his control he should be able to alleviate this problem. Notice that his Innings/GS has increased each month this season.

2. He is a fly-ball pitcher who gives up a lot of HRs. Although May has always been a fly-ball pitcher he has been able to limit HRs. Between 2010 and 2011, May pitched 285 innings and allowed 18 HRs before allowing 22 in 150 innings last season. However, May has given up just 6 HRs in 80 innings this year. In other words, we shouldn't be worried about May giving up too many HRs.

[PseudoSABR]

As I posted on another tread, about a month ago, Jim Callis said May's path to the bigs is thru the bullpen. I'm just hoping he remains a starter this season.

That's hardly a foregone conclusion. The Twins will try him in the rotation until they are forced not to do so, ala Perkins, Slowey, Hawkins etc.

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

Good analysis - thanks for that.

 

Some guys just progress at different rates than others. May's progression may be more deliberate.

[howieramone1406390264]

Good job Boone. I don't disagree. My hope is May continues to improve and we hopefully see him in the starting rotation sometime in 2014. I'm very concerned with our starting pitching depth in the minors and if it takes some a little longer I have no problem with that. It seems to me we are already well-stocked with relief pitchers.

[drjim]

Part of May that bothers me is MN is wasting an option year on him this year with really no shot of calling him up. He's still 2 deep (behing Gibson & supposedly Albers) with no real impression that they would even call him up to AAA.

I understand that if he has another 2-3 good ones in AA, he could go up but AAA is gonna start activating guys like Hendriks, Blackburn etc soon further blocking a guy like May or even Darnell.

Im hoping May gets an Aug/Sept recall & gets his feet wet for 5-10 starts to get ready for next spring.

 

How are they "wasting" an option year? Should he be in the majors right now?

 

He had to be on the 40 man or they would have lost him.

[silverslugger]

Of course, if he continues to take two years to master each level he will have mastered major league baseball by 2017. I'd say that's about the right time frame for this organization to revisit the World Series.

[kab21]

I'm okay with May staying in AA for most of the year. It's encouraging to see progress but I'm not even sure it's progress at this point. He's typically walked 4+ batters/9 so all I see is a nice 3 start stretch.

 

His BB/9 rates for each game this season

1.17

4.26

3.00

5.40

5.40

9.00

4.50

1.29

2.57

6.75

3.86

6.75

6.75

5.40

[jokin]

Although many would consider Trevor May’s season to this point disappointing, and in many ways it has been, he has made marked improvements from month-to-month:

April: GS 5: Innings per GS: 5 BB/9: 5.7 K/BB: 1.5 ERA: 4.62

May: GS 6: Innings per GS: 5.5 BB/9: 4.4 K/BB: 1.8 ERA: 3.82

June: GS 3: Innings per GS: 6.7 BB/9: 2.7 K/BB: 3.8 ERA: 1.80

 

This kind of consistent improvement is an excellent sign in May’s development and makes his rather pedestrian numbers look much more promising. When considering May’s history, it isn’t surprising that he has started to take a step forward. Since 2009, May has repeated each league he has been to (A, A+, and now AA). At every level, his second stint has been much more impressive than the first. It appears that this trend is continuing this season, his second in the Eastern League.

 

This makes a mid-season promotion of May a little tricky. If he continues to show improvement, especially in his walk-rate, one would expect him to be promoted, especially because he played all of last season at AA. However, with such a boom-or-bust prospect, teams tend to be more conservative.

 

The Consistent Improvement of Trevor May

 

 

I guess the Twins FO will have to use the "consistent" argument in a different way with May, his performance this season isn't Gibsonly enough for that excuse.

 

I've been tracking his season's performance closely this year. His postgame game comments "consistenly" suggest that he has matured, he appears to intellectually understand the game plan and path to his ultimate success, in the process he has stayed on task to specifically address his areas of weakness. I think he's now going over the final hurdle headed toward the team decision to continue his path to the majors as a starter. Very encouraging trends, and much underreported and underappreciated developments. Well done, Boone.

[jokin]

I'm okay with May staying in AA for most of the year. It's encouraging to see progress but I'm not even sure it's progress at this point. He's typically walked 4+ batters/9 so all I see is a nice 3 start stretch.

 

His overall walk rate has only improved marginally from last year. The big thing I see is a pitcher who has similar numbers to last year in AA with the big exceptions being a 1.31 drop in ERA (huge) and a 10% better LOB% rate. He's clearly matured some and learned how to deal with his fits of wildness pretty effectively.

[InfraRen]

This is very encouraging.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I guess the Twins FO will have to use the "consistent" argument in a different way with May, his performance this season isn't Gibsonly enough for that excuse.

 

I've been tracking his season's performance closely this year. His postgame game comments "consistenly" suggest that he has matured, he appears to intellectually understand the game plan and path to his ultimate success, in the process he has stayed on task to specifically address his areas of weakness. I think he's now going over the final hurdle headed toward the team decision to continue his path to the majors as a starter. Very encouraging trends, and much underreported and underappreciated developments. Well done, Boone.

 

Good Lord, there's a bazillion other threads in both the minor league and major league forums where people are arguing about this. Do we really need to bring it up in every single freaking thread?

[diehardtwinsfan]

His overall walk rate has only improved marginally from last year. The big thing I see is a pitcher who has similar numbers to last year in AA with the big exceptions being a 1.31 drop in ERA (huge) and a 10% better LOB% rate. He's clearly matured some and learned how to deal with his fits of wildness pretty effectively.

 

I think the walk rate is going to be the key though to his ascension. If this improvement continues and his walk rate drops, I think May finds himself back on those top 100 lists. He's doing pretty well in AA, which is a great thing. Drop that walk rate to around 3 per 9 and we have another stud pitching prospect on our hands.

[kab21]

His overall walk rate has only improved marginally from last year. The big thing I see is a pitcher who has similar numbers to last year in AA with the big exceptions being a 1.31 drop in ERA (huge) and a 10% better LOB% rate. He's clearly matured some and learned how to deal with his fits of wildness pretty effectively.

 

So he's a clutch pitcher?

[Boone]

I think the walk rate is going to be the key though to his ascension. If this improvement continues and his walk rate drops, I think May finds himself back on those top 100 lists. He's doing pretty well in AA, which is a great thing. Drop that walk rate to around 3 per 9 and we have another stud pitching prospect on our hands.

 

I completely agree. I think that if May can keep on striking out a batter an inning (which he's done his whole career), limit home runs (which he's done every year with the exception of last season), and continue to display improved control I think he could sneak into the back end of some lists. People seem to forget that May is just 3 months younger than Meyer and was ranked by BA as the #69 prospect in all of baseball before 2012.