Make It Official! Twins Claim Independence and the Series from King Kenta and the Tigers

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Ober and Pablo have been stellar last few starts. If we could only swing s trade for one more playoff caliber starter I think we'll be legit contenders!

Ryan - 17 starts - 3.21 ERA

SWR - 14 starts - 3.52 ERA

These 4 guys with Paddack and Varland going to Pen with knowledge they are throwing 2 innings max…..,,I think we’re legit.

Can SWR handle the innings load?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

While I agree that Varland is more likely a bullpen candidate than future rotation depth, I think it is way too early to determine a "solid no" on Festa.  His underlying metrics weren't nearly as bad as his results (for example: 8 to 1 SO/W).

Any organization unwilling to give young starters more than 2 starts will almost never be able to develop a starting pitcher.  Sending Festa down now for further development is appropriate, but I certainly expect to see him get another opportunity this year or next.

You can feel free to disagree with me, but I've seen all I need to see of who Festa is right now.

When you have a one trick pony like Festa who can't even consistently perform well at AAA, then he gets called up and wollop'd up, that's a pattern which makes sense. Festa's fastball grades as average (104), and that's probably generous given how it has virtually no horizontal movement, and his slider (120) is well above average. The grades are based on movement, spin, etc. If Festa adds a legitimate 3rd pitch, he might be a good future rotation piece. His changeup moves worse than average both vertically and horizontally, and graded a 66 where average quality is 100. Despite the potential for his pitches to be better, not one of them was effective in terms of actual results.

The K rate is the first thing to look at for Festa. It was his calling card. It vanished at the MLB level, probably in part to Festa having a zone rate of 54.3%, which would be by far the highest of any qualified pitcher in MLB. He was throwing meatballs. A lot of them. Festa was pretty average when it came to O-contact rates, and his chase rate was good so if his location was where it should have been, he probably would have gotten more Ks. His zone rate was a lot higher than recorded in AAA, but even with Festa obviously trying hard to avoid walks/balls, he wasn't able to locate his pitches.

Before you start bringing advanced metrics into the evaluation, you need to determine whether or not the player is a legitimate MLB caliber player. Festa is not right now. He can't locate his pitches, and he only has 2 viable pitches at the MLB level. That will never play in the big leagues.

As I noted, I've seen enough of Festa as he is right now. He's got a lot of work do to before he might be a viable MLB rotation arm. Banking on Festa becoming a legit MLB rotation arm is a "no" for me. I can still hope he figures a couple things out to take a big step forward, but I'm not counting on it.

[LA Vikes Fan]

19 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

On the post-game radio show, it was mentioned that a transaction is probably coming. Was that simply the Diego Castillo signing (Jordan Balovozic signing with Korea) transacations in St. Paul or something with the Twins? They never said.

Edit: Matt Bowman signed again as well and on the Saints.

Transaction is Festa down to AAA, Josh Winder up to the Twins. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

50 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

You can feel free to disagree with me, but I've seen all I need to see of who Festa is right now.

When you have a one trick pony like Festa who can't even consistently perform well at AAA, then he gets called up and wollop'd up, that's a pattern which makes sense. Festa's fastball grades as average (104), and that's probably generous given how it has virtually no horizontal movement, and his slider (120) is well above average. The grades are based on movement, spin, etc. If Festa adds a legitimate 3rd pitch, he might be a good future rotation piece. His changeup moves worse than average both vertically and horizontally, and graded a 66 where average quality is 100. Despite the potential for his pitches to be better, not one of them was effective in terms of actual results.

The K rate is the first thing to look at for Festa. It was his calling card. It vanished at the MLB level, probably in part to Festa having a zone rate of 54.3%, which would be by far the highest of any qualified pitcher in MLB. He was throwing meatballs. A lot of them. Festa was pretty average when it came to O-contact rates, and his chase rate was good so if his location was where it should have been, he probably would have gotten more Ks. His zone rate was a lot higher than recorded in AAA, but even with Festa obviously trying hard to avoid walks/balls, he wasn't able to locate his pitches.

Before you start bringing advanced metrics into the evaluation, you need to determine whether or not the player is a legitimate MLB caliber player. Festa is not right now. He can't locate his pitches, and he only has 2 viable pitches at the MLB level. That will never play in the big leagues.

As I noted, I've seen enough of Festa as he is right now. He's got a lot of work do to before he might be a viable MLB rotation arm. Banking on Festa becoming a legit MLB rotation arm is a "no" for me. I can still hope he figures a couple things out to take a big step forward, but I'm not counting on it.

I hear you and agree with your analysis of where Festa is now but I don't agree on the gloomy prognosis. Right now, Festa is a guy with a plus slider, slightly better than average fastball, and no third pitch who needs to work on his command. He's also only 24 and in his first full season at AAA. In 17 AAA starts over the last 2 seasons, he pitched 72 innings and given up 29 earned runs for an overall ERA of 3.625 in a hitter's league. HIs SO rate per 9 is above 11 but his BABIP is a concerning .350. I agree that he needs a third pitch or at best he's a reliever at the MLB level. That lack of a good 3rd pitch also helps explain the high BABIP. IF he develops that change up to an average MLB change up, he's a 4th or 5th starter at the MLB level. He does that and improves his fastball movement and he could be a mid-rotation or better guy,.  

I think the odds are actually 50/50 or so that Festa can develop that pitch and be a viable MLB starter. I say we give him at least through 2025 to find out. 

[Shaitan]

it's interesting that Bowman came back to MIN, by choice, after the league tour.

[Shaitan]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Any offensive upgrades seem to be fools errand.

Any contender needs an insurance policy. But I think Lee/Julien/Wallner may have that covered too.

You could make the case for BIG move to upgrade over Kepler and Larnach but I don't see that coming and if they move real assets I'd rather see a SP.

I could see adding depth pieces they can hide, like a 5 OF type of backup 1B at the deadline but nothing big as far as position players go.

[jorgenswest]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The best news for the Twins is they've now seen Varland and Festa in the rotation, and they should have a good feel for the likelihood they'll be able to count on those guys as rotation depth for the future. My opinion is a solid "no."

That is a strong opinion. I think it is way too early to have an opinion so solid.

There were strong takes early in the season about whether Miranda or Larnach can be anything beyond a AAAA player. Three months isn’t enough to definitively answer that yes but it too early to answer that question no at that time. The Twins would not be in playoff position without their contribution this year.

Quote

Larnach is a good stop-gap to start in the corners for a rebuilding team or as a depth option, but he's not good enough to be starting more than 40 or so games for a team hoping to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, he's also hurt quite a bit. Just 93 total MiLB/MLB games in 2021, 63 MiLB/MLB games in 2022 and 130 games between AAA/MLB last year. The book is closed on him. He's a lefty version of Kyle Garlick.

Jose Miranda isn't a slugger, but he generates enough power to be better than league average at the plate. He'll need to improve his plate discipline and start taking more walks to be more than an acceptable regular. He's a little lighter hitting Eddie Rosario of the infield.

 

[bean5302]

28 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

That is a strong opinion. I think it is way too early to have an opinion so solid.

There were strong takes early in the season about whether Miranda or Larnach can be anything beyond a AAAA player. Three months isn’t enough to definitively answer that yes but it too early to answer that question no at that time. The Twins would not be in playoff position without their contribution this year.

 

Varland's track record is plenty long at this point, and he's 26. 5.30 ERA, 5.40 FIP as a starter across 3 years without any peripherals suggesting he's turning a corner. He gives up very loud contact on a regular basis because his pitches don't fool MLB hitters while he's in the rotation. There's a reason the Twins called up Festa instead of Varland (who would have been on 5 days rest, if I remember right).

Festa is age 24, and he has 2 MLB caliber pitches. Even if he could put the ball in the general vicinity of where he's aiming (which he can't), starters don't make it with 2 pitches. He's got 2 more years with options left so there's no reason to DFA him or something, but expectations should be tempered by how he's struggled this year in AAA (1/2 his starts are disasters), and how hard he got hit at the MLB level. He's not a young prospect.

Larnach is 27, and at 900 plate appearances in his career with the same type of results over and over. He cannot hit breaking and offspeed pitches. People remember a 2 week hot streak for him this year, but he's been struggling for the past 2 months now. He got more aggressive at the plate so his K rate dropped by a bunch, but his walks vanished even harder. In 4 years, he's never produced over 0.8 fWAR, he's never had a season with a wRC+ higher than 108 (this year).

[bean5302]

Miranda had a bum shoulder last year. The way fans on this site turned on him was shocking considering how he played at age 23, dominating AAA, and 24 putting up a near full season with a wRC+ 117. 

On the polar opposite end, the dominant position on this site was an endless swoon for Alex Kirilloff. 50% of the player outlook on this site is nothing more than a popularity contest. I'll form my opinions based on data, watching the games, and my own gut instincts.

[jorgenswest]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Larnach is 27, and at 900 plate appearances in his career with the same type of results over and over. He cannot hit breaking and offspeed pitches. People remember a 2 week hot streak for him this year, but he's been struggling for the past 2 months now. He got more aggressive at the plate so his K rate dropped by a bunch, but his walks vanished even harder. In 4 years, he's never produced over 0.8 fWAR, he's never had a season with a wRC+ higher than 108 (this year).

I always appreciate your strong takes. 

Do you believe the change in Larnach’s strike out rate and contact rate are significant and enough sample to be encouraging? His statcast expected stats based on the quality and quantity of his contact show a xwOBA that is behind only Correa and Lewis on the team. Is there any reason to be encouraged by his pitch/swing level data?

[bean5302]

14 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I always appreciate your strong takes. 

Do you believe the change in Larnach’s strike out rate and contact rate are significant and enough sample to be encouraging? His statcast expected stats based on the quality and quantity of his contact show a xwOBA that is behind only Correa and Lewis on the team. Is there any reason to be encouraged by his pitch/swing level data?

I was excited for him to start the season, but that faded as the same size grew. In the first few couple weeks he was back, he was crushing baseballs, but more importantly, he wasn't showing to be weak against his old nemesis, the non-4 seamer pitches.

Unfortunately, his results against breaking and offspeed stuff reverted. The Fastball looks insane, but he was at like +30 projected a couple weeks ago. Things look like they're starting to normalize (numbers below projected based on a full season)
 

Pitch Type	Pitch %	Exp. Pitches	2021	2022	2023	2024
Fastball	28%	448	4	2	0	16
Slider	18%	288	-4	7	2	-4
Changeup	18%	288	-8	-7	-2	-12
Curveball	11%	176	1	-4	-3	-3
Sinker	9%	144	-3	4	2	-3
Cutter	6%	96	-4	-4	5	5
Splitter	5%	80	0	-6	4	0
Other	5%	80	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

I saw the xwOBA for Larnach, and I dove into it deeper because I like that stat, but it didn't feel quite right to me. I dove into his last couple months for line drive rates, hard hit rates, barrels, average exit velocities, etc. Nothing stood out as particularly above average, and his walks plummeted even harder as a percentage than his K rate did. I guess I'm not sure why the xwOBA is so much above average as a result of that.