Minnesota Twins: What Has Happened to Justin Morneau's Power?

[SoCalTwinsfan]

I looked at Morneau's homerless streak.

 

Since the concussion, Morneau, who also had wrist surgery after 2011, has batted .263/.324/.399 in over 1,100 plate appearances. From his MVP season of 2006 until the concussion, Morneau batted .298/.372/.528 with four All-Star Game appearances and two Silver Sluggers.

 

You can read the rest of Minnesota Twins: What Has Happened to Justin Morneau's Power? at Yahoo! Sports.

 

Is Morneau done being at least an average hitter for a first baseman?

[Danchat]

Even if his power is gone, he's batting .295 with lots of RBIs, so he's still an average hitter.

We could use some power though....

[Kwak]

Watch Morneau swing--his first movement is to open his front shoulder. Is this to permit his left eye a better view? Whatever, this won't permit maximum bat-head velocity in his swing.

[twinsnorth49]

He's older and missed close to 2 years of baseball, will he hit 30 again? Probably not but I believe we'll see a bit more power as the year progresses.

[Willihammer]

Watch Morneau swing--his first movement is to open his front shoulder. Is this to permit his left eye a better view? Whatever, this won't permit maximum bat-head velocity in his swing.

 

This is pure conjecture, but my assumption is he's still dealing with a mental block resulting from the concussions. Might still have post concussion symptoms but just got tired of answering to the media about it daily as he came up on his contract year even.

[fairweather]

I think it's his wrist. Even though he says it's fine I don't think it's ever going to be 100% ever again.

[Kwak]

This is pure conjecture, but my assumption is he's still dealing with a mental block resulting from the concussions. Might still have post concussion symptoms but just got tired of answering to the media about it daily as he came up on his contract year even.

 

Talk about usng "conjecture"?! Watch him swing the bat. Why does he open up? IDK. Hence the use of a ? mark.

[fairweather]

I think this actually works in the Twins favor because now he'll have a VERY limited market for his services in FA. Captain cheap-O Will tell us how having the extra money from the new stadium allowed us to retain one of our stars when in fact he'll be retained because it'll be on the cheap.

[Oxtung]

Even if his power is gone, he's batting .295 with lots of RBIs, so he's still an average hitter.

We could use some power though....

 

You might want to reconsider the use of RBI's to determine how good a hitter is. They are a team stat not a player stat. While Morneau's batting average is actually above average his overall hitting ability is below average for 1st base. He currently ranks 20th in OPS amongst 1st basemen which is actually an improvement from a month ago, IIRC.

[Kwak]

Probabiliy of a Morneau extention--very low. The Twins are committed to low payroll and youth. I fully expect the Twin will accept the first offer than doesn't include the Twins paying any cash to the acqiring team.

[kab21]

He's older and missed close to 2 years of baseball, will he hit 30 again? Probably not but I believe we'll see a bit more power as the year progresses.

 

I think we have been saying this for the last two seasons. At some point we might have to accept that this is the Morneau that you are going to get.

[nicksaviking]

Probabiliy of a Morneau extention--very low. The Twins are committed to low payroll and youth. I fully expect the Twin will accept the first offer than doesn't include the Twins paying any cash to the acqiring team.

 

In which case the Twins will receive a lesser prospect and the already under-budget front office personnel involved in the decision should be relieved of their duties.

 

Make a trade that is favorable to the Twins or else keep him and give him a qualifying offer. Who cares if on the off chance he accepts the one-year-deal. An under-budget team can overpay for one of their former heroes, he still looks to be an upgrade to Chris Parmelee or any other internal options at this point. The money likely won't be spent elsewhere.

 

Not that I disagree with Kwak's take. It is likely the Twins most favored position. It just shouldn't be.

[LaBombo]

You might want to reconsider the use of RBI's to determine how good a hitter is. They are a team stat not a player stat. While Morneau's batting average is actually above average his overall hitting ability is below average for 1st base. He currently ranks 20th in OPS amongst 1st basemen which is actually an improvement from a month ago, IIRC.

And even the batting average is probably a mirage, since it's resting on the unstable foundation of a .340 babip, which is about 45 points above his career average.

[greengoblinrulz]

Its his wrist, but everyone thinks he'll go back to his MVP form but he is now at best a Lyle Overbay type 1B. He is a very below average hitting first baseman right now.

Justins .739 OPS ranks 21st in MLB for team first basemen.

Its great that he has 37RBI but his .359 RISP is 6th best. He only hit .196 w/RISP last yr

[twinsnorth49]

I think we have been saying this for the last two seasons. At some point we might have to accept that this is the Morneau that you are going to get.

 

Perhaps, that is certainly possible however the last two seasons he was more actively dealing with the injuries and even then he flashed the power occasionally. I think he'll turn it around at some point.

[Willihammer]

Talk about usng "conjecture"?! Watch him swing the bat. Why does he open up? IDK. Hence the use of a ? mark.

 

Right, I am conjecturing a reason for Morneau flying open. I wouldn't call your observation conjecture at all, I see the same thing.

 

Its almost like he's a afraid of the ball. Or of getting hit in the head, posssibly.

[diehardtwinsfan]

And even the batting average is probably a mirage, since it's resting on the unstable foundation of a .340 babip, which is about 45 points above his career average.

 

I'm not sure his career numbers are a useful indicator given that he's got 2 years of play where that number was artificially deflated due to injury. Justin is hitting the ball hard, just not far. It isn't as though he's getting on base with seeing eye singles and bloopers.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

You might want to reconsider the use of RBI's to determine how good a hitter is. They are a team stat not a player stat. While Morneau's batting average is actually above average his overall hitting ability is below average for 1st base. He currently ranks 20th in OPS amongst 1st basemen which is actually an improvement from a month ago, IIRC.

 

While RBI aren't a great stat, consider that someone has to come up in the clutch. If you don't score runs for your team, you minus well not even bat. Chris Parmelee is OPSing .374 with RISP. That's the primary reason why he's not been valuable at the plate for us and I groan every time he predictably fails.

[Oxtung]

While RBI aren't a great stat, consider that someone has to come up in the clutch. If you don't score runs for your team, you minus well not even bat. Chris Parmelee is OPSing .374 with RISP. That's the primary reason why he's not been valuable at the plate for us and I groan every time he predictably fails.

 

RBI's don't tell you anything about if a hitter is "clutch". If you want "clutchiness" stats then use one. There are several to choose from but RBI isn't one of them.

[howieramone1406390264]

RBI's don't tell you anything about if a hitter is "clutch". If you want "clutchiness" stats then use one. There are several to choose from but RBI isn't one of them.

Good enough for me.

[LaBombo]

I'm not sure his career numbers are a useful indicator given that he's got 2 years of play where that number was artificially deflated due to injury. Justin is hitting the ball hard, just not far. It isn't as though he's getting on base with seeing eye singles and bloopers.

It's true that he's not hitting the ball far. But he's not hitting more line drives than usual, so it probably is mostly good fortune that balls in play are turning into hits at a .340 clip for him.

 

In his 570 plate appearances in 2012, his babip was exactly one point lower than his career average. In about half that many PA's in 2011 he managed just a .257 clip, but that's not enough to affect his career babip by more than a couple of points. So it's just not very likely that he'll sustain a .295 average, especially without turning fly balls into homers.

 

My guess is that some of his power will return, and he'll have a second half that looks more like his 2012 season: more homers, lower average. What a half or whole year of that is worth to the Twins, or anybody else for that matter, is hard to say.

[LaBombo]

While RBI aren't a great stat, consider that someone has to come up in the clutch. If you don't score runs for your team, you minus well not even bat. Chris Parmelee is OPSing .374 with RISP. That's the primary reason why he's not been valuable at the plate for us and I groan every time he predictably fails.

RBI's are primarily a function of opportunity. Baseball Prospectus took all the suspense out of that debate a decade ago.

 

As for stats like RISP, they're usually just small sample white noise rather than a measurement of a repeatable, measurable skill. While there are probably players who are somewhat consistently above or below average 'in the clutch', it's just random for most players, which is why it's almost never discussed in talent evaluation.

 

And Morneau is the poster child for the meaninglessness of RBI and RISP. He's a 'clutch' hitter, and that's why he's batting .360 with RISP this year, right? Then why did he bat .196 in the same situation last year? Because he forgot how to be 'clutch'? No, he did it because, just like in any other set of 100 to 150 plate appearance, random stuff happens.

[kab21]

Perhaps, that is certainly possible however the last two seasons he was more actively dealing with the injuries and even then he flashed the power occasionally. I think he'll turn it around at some point.

 

And just how long do you maintain this optimism?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

RBI's don't tell you anything about if a hitter is "clutch". If you want "clutchiness" stats then use one. There are several to choose from but RBI isn't one of them.

 

First off, they aren't RBIs. No such thing as Runs Batted Ins. How isn't a RBI a clutch stat? Don't make a statement and then not explain it.

[snepp]

I'm not sure his career numbers are a useful indicator given that he's got 2 years of play where that number was artificially deflated due to injury.

 

If you want to use that caveat, then you also have to take into account that at his age he's on the back side of his career, making his peak BABIP years irrelevant as well.

 

End result, probably a wash.

[Oxtung]

First off, they aren't RBIs. No such thing as Runs Batted Ins. How isn't a RBI a clutch stat? Don't make a statement and then not explain it.

 

At the very least I should have had an apostrophe, you're right. RBI's? R'sBI? I don't know which is correct when you're using an acronym.

 

This RBI discussion has been waged several times so I made the assumption that you would know the arguments at this point. Mea Culpa. All that RBI measures is how many runners you plated, not how efficient (ie clutch) you were at doing so. There are better stats to measure efficiency including one you mentioned in your own post, RISP, which directly measure how efficient a hitter is when it counts.

 

RBI on the other hand are a function of two things. First it is dependent on having someone on base in front of you, so you could be the best hitter in the world but if people are rarely on in front of you, no RBI. Or you could be a very bad hitter but if there are always guys on when you come to the plate your RBI total will be large just because of the number of opportunities. The second factor is how "clutch" a hitter is but because the first factor is so important in deriving an RBI it is impossible to tell "clutchiness" from the RBI stat.

 

Here is a case in point. Morneau vs. Mauer career stats with RISP:

[TABLE=width: 500]

[/TD]

[TD]RBI

OPS

Opportunities

Morneau

578

.866

1544

Mauer

494

.953

1336

[/TABLE]

 

As you can see Joe has actually been more "clutch" with RISP but Morneau has more RBI's because he's had more opportunities. In reality because Mauer, with his ridiculous .406 OBP, has always hit in front of Morneau, Morneau ends up with more RBI's.

[howieramone1406390264]

Does the team that scores the most runs still win?

[johnnydakota]

As i have been saying since mid April , I believe its justins gluten free diet, he needs to start carbo loading.... go pasta

[LaBombo]

Morneau ends up with more RBI's.

 

Period! As in end of sentence. And debate.

Why? Because Morneau is to the batting in of runs what International House of Pancakes is to...

 

Tough night, Ox. You're apparently out of the weekly TD Punctuation Bee on a borderline call, and you also biffed the RBI ('s? :0 ) water-balloon throwing contest by leaving a sentence fragment ripe for quoting out of context.

 

For what it's worth, the M&M presentation was awesome, but...

http://www.wearysloth.com/Gallery/ActorsK/9460-3481.gif

 

"Shut up! Just shut up! He doesn't get it! He'll never get it! It's been 4 hours! The cows can tape something by now! Forget about it please!"

[kab21]

As i have been saying since mid April , I believe its justins gluten free diet, he needs to start carbo loading.... go pasta

 

I think you need to do a little reading about food sensitivities and intolerances. If someone is sensitive (as Justin claims) to certain foods then it can benefit them a lot to eliminate them from their diet. This is actually one additional explanation for his issues the last several years.