How Valuable is a Unicorn?

[stringer bell]

Luis Arráez is the favorite to win his third consecutive batting championship in the 2024 season. To my knowledge, he would be the first to win three batting championships for three different teams. He is, far and away, the best contact hitter in the game at this time, posting a tiny 5.7% K rate. For these reasons alone, Arráez should be considered a unique player--a unicorn. 

After the Twins were rained out yesterday, I checked some baseball pages and noted that Arraez has moved close to the top in batting average after being below .300 for the Marlins early this year. I also noted a WAR of 1.1 and I looked down the list of batting qualifiers to find someone with the same (or lower) number. The answer was Josh Smith, who is hitting .294 in about 70 fewer plate appearances. I'll comment here that I'm not a huge fan of WAR, but it is a way to sort overall value among position players. Next, I checked another "overall stat" and found that Arráez currently ranks 66th in MLB with a .745 mark. The .745 posted by Arráez is significantly lower than he put up in each of his two batting championship years. Why would Arráez' OPS number be down over 100 points and why would his WAR project to about 2.4 for a full season? I thought I had a couple answers and decided to check some other stats for this one-of-a-kind player. 

First, Arraez isn't a slugger. He has only one home run along with thirteen doubles and a triple. His iso power number will never be that high, but so far this season, it is a career low. It stands at .061 while major league average is .166. Luis' lifetime iso power number is .096. Secondly, and probably most telling is that his walk rate is low this year--3.8%, less than half of his lifetime mark of 7.4% and far below the major league average of 8.5%. If a guy has limited power and isn't a base running threat, why nibble? Finally, Arraez leads the National League in GDPs, which projects to the high 20s over a full season. Arraez' career exit velocity numbers have always been pedestrian but this year's 85.8 MPH number is also the lowest in his career. 

Arráez has been moved, more or less permanently to first base and DH by the Padres. He and Jake Cronenworth switched positions a couple weeks ago. His value as an alleged 5'10" first baseman is capped by his size (IMHO). As a base runner, Luis isn't gifted with good speed, but as often as he gets on base, he should be a pretty smart base runner.

There aren't many players like Luis Arráez. He's a good day away from assuming the MLB lead in average, but he has to be head and shoulders above average in hitting because of factors like power, speed, and defensive ability and he is an above average player. I think the league has figured him out to some extent--throw him strikes and live with a lot of singles. IMHO, Arráez is the finishing touch, putting him on top of a good lineup will yield a lot of runs scored, but he isn't the kind of guy that can change a so-so team into a champion. Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew won a lot of batting championships and Arráez might join them by the time he is through, but he does have to hit like that to be an asset to his team. 

 

[ashbury]

I always come back to the notion that even if Arraez is close to a one-tool player, that tool is the most indispensable one, and his hit tool is elite.

To the argument that he doesn't provide power, it's easy to counter that with "it's a team sport", with some players setting the table and others driving them in. You might not want a batting order with 9 Luis Arraez types (of varying talent level - a lineup of all .350 hitters would be pretty darn good, but those are unicorns as you say), since you'll normally need 3 base hits in an inning just to score one run and not even Ty Cobb batted .500 in order to do that with regularity. But you wouldn't want 9 Dave Kingmans* either, at the other extreme.  Balance is key to good offense, and Luis Arraez can be part of such.

You mention OPS and I always like to point out to its detractors, who'll say things like it overrates home runs, that 1) it's only a quick and dirty stat and doesn't promise Absolute Truth about anybody, and 2) unlike any other component, it values batting average TWICE in how it's computed, homers or walks only one way each.  I think it's actually pretty good for a q'n'd stat, and counting base hits twice (in OBP and in SLG) seems about right.  Batting average is important, and it's how Arraez earns a good OPS even with minuscule ISO; he doesn't slug, and yet his slugging average isn't embarrassing.

Ultimately, though, I turn the "team sport" argument around the other way, and point out that someone like Arraez himself doesn't do for his teammates what he expect his teammates to do for him: drive in runners.

And for all his hitting prowess, he's on a 162-game pace to score only 95 runs this season.  That's very good and every team would love to have that from its regulars; the average team last year scored about 750 runs, or about 83 runs for every spot in the lineup.  But 95 isn't other-worldly, and the other-worldly batting average kind of misleads what his full contribution is.  At some point you have to stop blaming the teammates and acknowledge he infrequently puts himself on second base to be easily driven home, and he almost never drives himself in with a homer, both of which are ways to assure yourself of scoring more runs with the same batting average.  He never really "yield(s) a lot of runs scored."  Not a lot lot. 

Plus, he's only on a pace to drive in 42 runs, and it's not useful to say it's not his job.  That's part of yielding a lot of runs too.  Runs are the job and every contribution matters.

Yes he's a unicorn, and it's easy to over-value those.  IMO we did great by obtaining an established starting pitcher in trade for him.

 

* Old school reference, I know.  One of the complaints about the "modern" three-true-outcomes style of play is that it's turned every batter into Dave Kingman.  While Dave himself was a fun oddity in his day, the effect of everyone being like that is dull for many observers.

[Road trip]

Petco is a very tough place to hit, especially for power.  This will reduce Arraez's SLG%, and may account for part of the drop he has had compared to the past two years.

He's not Carew, who had great speed when he was young, or even Tony Gwynn.  Wade Boggs might be a better comp (elite contact hitter, mediocre to poor defender, average speed, limited power), but probably he isn't quite as "elite" as Boggs was (although playing in Fenway helped Boggs a lot!).

Despite the limitations, I think Arraez remains a very valuable player in an era where consistently putting the ball in play has become a rare skill.  Other than lacking speed, he's an almost ideal leadoff hitter, as he always seems to see a lot of pitches.  The Twins have struggled to find the right leadoff hitter ever since he was traded.  Unlike speed, arm, and various other skills the "hit tool" usually ages pretty well, so I expect Arraez will have a long and productive career if he can stay healthy.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Road trip said:

Petco is a very tough place to hit, especially for power.  This will reduce Arraez's SLG%, and may account for part of the drop he has had compared to the past two years.

Despite the limitations, I think Arraez remains a very valuable player in an era where consistently putting the ball in play has become a rare skill.  Other than lacking speed, he's an almost ideal leadoff hitter, as he always seems to see a lot of pitches.  The Twins have struggled to find the right leadoff hitter ever since he was traded.  Unlike speed, arm, and various other skills the "hit tool" usually ages pretty well, so I expect Arraez will have a long and productive career if he can stay healthy.

So far, Arráez has fared much better as a Padre. I don't have the splits handy, but so far home park hasn't mattered. 

The lower walk rate this year is something that might indicate that he might not be able to maintain and sustain his high batting average and above-average OPS. 

[Road trip]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

So far, Arráez has fared much better as a Padre. I don't have the splits handy, but so far home park hasn't mattered. 

The lower walk rate this year is something that might indicate that he might not be able to maintain and sustain his high batting average and above-average OPS. 

According to BRef this year he is slugging .489 on the road and .296 at home.    Small sample size, but yeah, Petco may be an issue for his power like it is for so many players. 

2024 Home or Away

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Home	38	38	172	159	17	41	6	0	0	9	1	0	9	9	.258	.310	.296	.606	47	10	3	1	0	0	0	.273	63	74
Away	32	31	143	137	24	55	7	1	1	9	2	2	3	9	.402	.420	.489	.909	67	2	2	0	1	0	1	.422	144	164

Last year he was better at home, as most hitters are:

Home or Away

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Home	77	74	318	298	39	112	15	2	6	40	3	0	16	10	.376	.407	.500	.907	149	8	1	1	2	4	1	.373	110	144
Away	70	67	299	276	32	91	15	1	4	29	0	2	19	24	.330	.378	.435	.813	120	10	3	0	1	6	1	.349	89	127

 

Regardless of where he plays going forward, Arraez isn't going to be a slugger... and that's ok,  He's gonna hit and provide value.

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, Road trip said:

According to BRef this year he is slugging .489 on the road and .296 at home.   

Since his BA on the road is .402, that's the main component of his SLG, the difference of .087 being an ISO that isn't one of a slugger either.  It's an oddity of the terminology, nothing more; it takes nothing away from his being very good at what he (actually) does, which is mostly hit singles in any ballpark.

[bean5302]

Arraez's defensive limitation isn't his height; it's a weak arm and being a slow runner with poor acceleration. He typically has pretty good instincts and positioning so his actual fielding results (UZR/RF/etc) are better than the athletic numbers (OAA). I expect Arraez's ISO and overall WAR rate will improve before the end of the year. Probably back to about a 2.0-2.5 WAR player, but he's not going to be a ton better than that playing 1B/DH. If Arraez wants to be more like Carew or Gwynn, he's going to need to work on his athleticism.

[chpettit19]

His contract is going to be one of the most fascinating we've seen in some time. I'm quite interested to see where teams value him in terms of money. 1 more year of arbitration before hitting the market before his age 29 season. Is San Diego going to have talks about whether he's even worth his last arb number? Will be quite interesting.

[Parfigliano]

As long as he can maintain around a .400 OBP a team will have a spot for him.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

As long as he can maintain around a .400 OBP a team will have a spot for him.

Currently Arráez has a ..348 OBP, which is lower than Willi Castro. 

[Parfigliano]

32 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Currently Arráez has a ..348 OBP, which is lower than Willi Castro. 

Yup and if Arraez doesnt get his OBP back around .400 he is going to find the market for his singles only bat limited.  

[bean5302]

34 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Currently Arráez has a ..348 OBP, which is lower than Willi Castro. 

A team will have a place for Arraez as long as his OBP is .340+ as he'll have an above league average bat, guaranteed.
Willi Castro .333 xwOBA
Luis Arraez .333 xwOBA

[stringer bell]

As we approach the All-Star break, Arráez has not been a difference maker since the Padres acquired him from Miami. He was quickly switched to first base and with the return of Bogaerts, looks to be the team's primary DH. Arráez' BA is .305 and his OBP is .338. His slugging is .372, lowest among the top 50 qualifiers in MLB. His OPS is .710, 89th among batting qualifiers. 

As mentioned before, Arraez' walk rate is down considerably (3.7%, less than half of the league average of 8.5%) and he's hitting with even less power (career low ,067 ISO) so that .300+ average is pretty empty. His next arbitration contract should be fascinating.

It wouldn't be surprising if Arraez wins another batting championship, but with his limited defensive and base running skills and lack of power, he's a bit of a one-trick pony. He's the best contact hitter in baseball and it's not even close, 

[Indseym]

Luis Arráez is a unique hitter for sure. He's awesome at making contact and getting on base, but he doesn't have much power or speed. This season, his OPS and WAR are kinda average, and moving to first base/DH hasn't helped. Plus, he's not walking as much, which is hurting his stats.