The Last Two Moves The Twins Should Make

[Riverbrian]

37 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Agree, and further I think as revenues (potentially) level off or start to drop I think the middle class veterans are the ones who are going to feel the pinch. The youth movement's been underway already, where cheap kids and superstars will get their money and opportunities, but the Kyle Farmers and Gio Urshelas are going to be pinched more and more in the future.  The guys that can field. maybe hit some but only platoon or without power, or might have injury problems, they aren't going to be getting the deals they used to.  Clever FO without money may still try to Lego a roster together with them, but in general they'll be far less valuable than cheap talent or top talent and that'll be most clearly exhibited in trade values.

It's hard to justify 8 million for Adam Frazier when the Orioles have a stable of young prospects who can produce the same or better. 

It's hard to justify 3 million for Elvis Andrus when Zach Remillard can produce the same. 

It's hard to justify 9.5 million over two years for Jace Peterson when Jordan Diaz can produce the same. 

It's hard to justify 7 million for AJ Pollock when Dominic Canzone can produce the same

It's hard to justify 7.75 million for Jurickson Profar when Daza or Goodman can produce the same. 

It's hard to justify 7.5 million for Wil Myers when the Reds have about 75 players down on the farm who can out produce him. 

And of course... It's hard to justify 11 million for Joey Gallo when Matt Wallner produces much better or a Larnach produces the same. 

The prospects listed above for purely example purposes are not big name prospects. 

In a nutshell... it isn't hard to replace what a poor performing vet on a one year deal produces and poor performing vets on one year deals is something that happens frequently. Too frequently in my opinion. I'd rather shop the higher end of free agency with bigger contracts and have the money for those bigger contracts because of more roster spots available to those making the minor league minimum. 

These 7 to 11 million dollar deals add up. Remove a couple of them and you have cleared actual money to be spent on something bigger and better. 

Vazquez, Farmer, Descalfini and Santana are 23 million this season. Jorge Solar cost 14 million. Rhys Hoskins cost 17 million. 

I think it's possible that we would be better off giving a couple of prospects like Miranda, Camargo and Varland the chance to be just as good and having the extra money to upgrade from Santana to Hoskins.

It's debatable I know... there are no guarantees in this game but I am certainly of the opinion... that one of the biggest hamstrings to any organization... is that 5 to 10 million dollar one year deal vet that falls flat on his face. If a young player is absolutely worse than the under performing vet... try someone else. The under performing vet is a setting a low replacement bar.  

 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Vazquez, Farmer, Descalfini and Santana are 23 million this season. Jorge Solar cost 14 million. Rhys Hoskins cost 17 million. 

The Vazquez decision was made when the budget wasn’t as tight and Jeffers was shaky. I can give them a pass on that. I also think the voice of that veteran catcher in those meeting with the pitchers and pitching staff was valuable to not only Jeffers but the pitchers and the coaches. It is hard to accept the other three and I hope they are willing cut their losses with any/all of the three early in the season.

Need a right handed short side platoon bat at 2B? They have Martin, Helman, Prato, Goodrum and even Lee all inexpensive. Why not give Julien a few more starts against a lefty and bat him 9th? The way pitchers are used he may only need see that lefty once and certainly not three times. 

Need a short side platoon bat at 1B? Why not try Miranda first followed by Severino? Give Kirilloff some starts against a lefty at the bottom of the order at times.

I would have combined those dollars to get an everyday bat or an upgrade to Varland in the rotation.

 

Short side platoon addendum.

Is it wise to have multiple bats whose value is in a short side platoon? The Earl Weaver platoon days of 15 rostered position players and starters pitching 7 or more innings are long gone. You can’t carry a Benny Ayala on your roster most of the season and have him face a right handed pitcher in just 9 plate appearances. Everyone on the roster needs to able to hit right handed pitching just as every bullpen arm is going to see high leverage. 

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The Vazquez decision was made when the budget wasn’t as tight and Jeffers was shaky. I can give them a pass on that. I also think the voice of that veteran catcher in those meeting with the pitchers and pitching staff was valuable to not only Jeffers but the pitchers and the coaches. It is hard to accept the other three and I hope they are willing cut their losses with any/all of the three early in the season.

Need a right handed short side platoon bat at 2B? They have Martin, Helman, Prato, Goodrum and even Lee all inexpensive. Why not give Julien a few more starts against a lefty and bat him 9th? The way pitchers are used he may only need see that lefty once and certainly not three times. 

Need a short side platoon bat at 1B? Why not try Miranda first followed by Severino? Give Kirilloff some starts against a lefty at the bottom of the order at times.

I would have combined those dollars to get an everyday bat or an upgrade to Varland in the rotation.

 

Short side platoon addendum.

Is it wise to have multiple bats whose value is in a short side platoon? The Earl Weaver platoon days of 15 rostered position players and starters pitching 7 or more innings are long gone. You can’t carry a Benny Ayala on your roster most of the season and have him face a right handed pitcher in just 9 plate appearances. Everyone on the roster needs to able to hit right handed pitching just as every bullpen arm is going to see high leverage. 

Great post as usual.

Being a GM is a tough job and I'm not willing to hang them for the decisions that they make... after all sometimes these 1 year guys have good years and are worth the money.

However... the failure rate has become high in my opinion and the most simple thing that you can do is not let them double down on the mistake. Spending the money is a mistake but the money spent can't hurt you unless you make the bigger mistake of letting the money spent mistake step to the plate continuously or take the mound continuously. The bottom line to me is pretty simple. A vet on an expiring contract has to perform at the very least average because you can find at least average or close to average waiting in the wings below.  

Agreed on the short side Platoon. The true short sider (Garlick for example) is a waste of a roster spot. In the case of Farmer... I'll bet anyone money that he will face more right handers than left handers this year. You can set up these pretty platoons in the off-season... they will be blown apart before April is over due to injury or poor performance... and in order to keep the platoon integrity you are signing Luplow and signing Luplow over promoting Larnach for example because of short side splits is just going to kill Larnach. 

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Vazquez, Farmer, Descalfini and Santana are 23 million this season. Jorge Solar cost 14 million. Rhys Hoskins cost 17 million. 

Agree with some of what @jorgenswest wrote above. 

Vasquez is valuable, he's just paid a little too much based on the market and means of when he was signed. He's also a cautionary tale for signing veterans for multiple years when you have kids coming up behind them (ie don't sign Soler or Hoskins to a multi-year contract in this org.)

Farmer was signed before Correa, Lewis and Lee were options, and his option was picked up because our backup SS would otherwise have been either Castro or Lee, which are not adequate for a team with playoff ambitions. Fine for a day but not for the longer haul.

Descalfini was only taken as rotation insurance, not a real part, and he came cheap and on a short deal so he's one year insurance. And if he's healthy he'll likely be better than SWR or Winder or Sands in 2024.

Santana is that RH part time platoon bat for one year everyone has been asking about. He can also stand around at 1B and be the emergency catcher for an inning or two if Farmer gets hit by an asteroid. 

I wouldn't sign anyone with that money right now. I'd sit on it and see what ahppens this spring:  who gets hurt, who regresses, and who becomes available.  Plus it lets us make moves nearer the trade deadline.

 

[jorgenswest]

Farmer has a career wRC+ against right handed pitching of 76. It was better last year (92) but with a foundation of an unsustainable hr/fb rate. Take away 3 homers and he is still above his career rate going into last year but the wRC+ takes a big hit. I think we should plan and even hope for 80. His glove has declined. Is this a player that should be starting anywhere against right handed pitching? Injuries will occur and he will need to. If Correa goes down I would prefer they go with the upside of Lee.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Vazquez, Farmer, Descalfini and Santana are 23 million this season. Jorge Solar cost 14 million. Rhys Hoskins cost 17 million. 

These are likely ongoing front office debates. The cost ($25,55) of Vazquez, Farmer, Santana, and DeSclafani could perhaps be spent on a single or two better players.  Sometimes it does seem like those smaller contracts will get cut off more. That said, the conversations may counter that a Hoskins can bomb or get injured which negates the ability to add those peripheral players who can be critical to a team's depth. 

Agree that Vazquez was added at a time of need at the price the market set.

[Riverbrian]

21 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Agree with some of what @jorgenswest wrote above. 

Vasquez is valuable, he's just paid a little too much based on the market and means of when he was signed. He's also a cautionary tale for signing veterans for multiple years when you have kids coming up behind them (ie don't sign Soler or Hoskins to a multi-year contract in this org.)

Farmer was signed before Correa, Lewis and Lee were options, and his option was picked up because our backup SS would otherwise have been either Castro or Lee, which are not adequate for a team with playoff ambitions. Fine for a day but not for the longer haul.

Descalfini was only taken as rotation insurance, not a real part, and he came cheap and on a short deal so he's one year insurance. And if he's healthy he'll likely be better than SWR or Winder or Sands in 2024.

Santana is that RH part time platoon bat for one year everyone has been asking about. He can also stand around at 1B and be the emergency catcher for an inning or two if Farmer gets hit by an asteroid. 

I wouldn't sign anyone with that money right now. I'd sit on it and see what ahppens this spring:  who gets hurt, who regresses, and who becomes available.  Plus it lets us make moves nearer the trade deadline.

 

Solid post. 

No argument from me. I can understand why each player was brought in... Why some are allowed to hang around is another question or shall I say concern. 

[Riverbrian]

37 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

These are likely ongoing front office debates. The cost ($25,55) of Vazquez, Farmer, Santana, and DeSclafani could perhaps be spent on a single or two better players.  Sometimes it does seem like those smaller contracts will get cut off more. That said, the conversations may counter that a Hoskins can bomb or get injured which negates the ability to add those peripheral players who can be critical to a team's depth. 

Agree that Vazquez was added at a time of need at the price the market set.

Good Post... No argument from me

On Vazquez: I understand why they did it. 

A. Catching is always an over pay in terms of offensive production anyways. 

B. Vazquez has typically been a better hitter in years past in comparison to what he delivered for us last year. 

C. Jeffers was coming off a not so impressive year so confidence in Jeffers was probably not as high it could be. 

D. I assume that we had money earmarked for Correa that could be spent once he signed with the Giants. 

However... When it comes to catching... I have never waivered from the opinion that you develop it from the ground up and avoid paying the price to sign it or trade for it because Catchers are always expensive over pays that don't play every day and managers will sacrifice offense for defense at the position. And if you are able to develop a catcher like we have done with Jeffers. I'm ok trading it away because other teams will over pay for it and you keep production line chugging so you can trade the next over valued catcher away. Catcher production can keep your organization stocked if you can produce it. 

On Hoskins: 

Yep... The bigger they are... the harder they fall. Injuries and poor performance with bigger contracts are a bigger problem because you are putting one big egg in that basket. However... when it comes to what we are talking about. The odds are better with that one big egg not laying an egg and if they do lay a Robinson Cano sized egg... that level of expected production wasn't going to be replaced anyway and you are back to the same discussion. Are you better off with Prato performing average or below average or Adam Frazier performing average or below average. 

I'll always go with the guy who can be sent down if they don't at least play average who can get better... over the guy who can't be sent down, won't be back next year, most likely won't get better over time and plays every day, taking the team down with him.   

[Twinsgypsy]

On 2/10/2024 at 12:21 AM, DocBauer said:

I like most of the roster as is. I like the depth of the pen and the possibilities very much. I'm mostly sold on the player/lineup situation as long as Santana is a part time player. I also like the front end of the rotation and some of the depth potential. But I believe there are 2 moves the Twins could still make that might take them over the top.

1] Add 1 more RH OF. Various FA are sitting there wondering where they are going to play next season. There are multiple options that should be inexpensive at this point on a 1yr. I'm only going to address 2, but there are other options. Taylor knows the team and brings defense, speed, and some pop. He would be in the role he was supposed to be in 2023, and provides more Buxton CF insurance. Probably won't hit as many HR, but with a better back condition, might steal more bases. Duvall has almost neutral splits. Who cares? He's still, probably, a better RH bat against LHP than Kepler or Wallner. 

2] Call Miami about Cabrera. Forget about spending TOP prospect capital for Luzardo. The FO doesn't want to do that, and I can't really disagree with that. Miami, like Seattle, has arm depth. They also have a new GM from Tampa who understands grabbing value to build a team. And the Twins have enough good quality depth in the organization to make this happen. 

Miami has the choice of adding some combination of immediate or close to ML talent in the "hasn't quite yet proven it but has the ability" in Larnach. There's also the "probably ready" catching of the powerful and reportedly solid defense Camargo. (They're looking for catching and doubt they want Vazquez's contract). But they are also, probably, looking at future value. Larnach and Camargo are financially cheap, if interested. But outside the Twins top 5 or 6, they could trade the recently acquired Gonzalez, Severino...close to MLB...Rosario. J Rodriquez, Jones, Matthews, Culpepper, DeAndre, Schobel, Keaschall. etc, a nice collection of top 15 talent and even a solid ML ready player or two, depending on their needs and wants. And the Twins can also throw in the QO offer draft pick they got for Gray.

Basically, the Marlins, and their new GM, get their choice of a couple ML players to help now who are young and have potential, and/or a collection of 2-4 solid top 10-20 prospects, and maybe the QO draft pick thrown in. 

Maybe they'd even be interested in DeScalfini as a 5th SP option??

And the Twins get a cost controlled  27yo with no options, if I'm correct, who has great stuff and a really good 2022 half season and a mediocre 2023. The potential is sky high. The floor isn't better than a back end starter. But that's a risk I'd take all day long were I the FO. 

I NEVER saw a BIG DEAL for a SP unless they could pull another rabbit out of the hat as they did with Odorizzi or Gray or Lopez. And they couldn't do it a 4th time.

But I've said and thought for months they COULD...and still can...grab someone like Cabrera to fit in to current payroll with upside that would COST talent, without mortgaging the future of the top 5 or 6 prospects in the system.

Cabrera is a risk, no doubt. But he's been a risk that makes sense to me. What say you? 

I agree Cabrera could be a good get if the price is right.  From looking at his pitches and control I believe the Twins could reall y make him better with a little tweaking like they did with Lopez last Spring.  He has some good potential that could easily be realized with a little bit of working with Maki to help make into a pretty good starting pitcher.  The to get him I will be very reasonable with some of the players that you suggesting.

[tony&rodney]

14 minutes ago, Twinsgypsy said:

I agree Cabrera could be a good get if the price is right.  From looking at his pitches and control I believe the Twins could reall y make him better with a little tweaking like they did with Lopez last Spring.  He has some good potential that could easily be realized with a little bit of working with Maki to help make into a pretty good starting pitcher.  The to get him I will be very reasonable with some of the players that you suggesting.

Cabrera was a trade I proposed last November, but I put him in the bullpen. He is out of options and a little shaky with his control, but basically unhittable when going well. In terms of coaching, I love the cool and confidence that Maki projects. However, we should remember that Miami is a franchise that seems to develop more pitchers than most organizations and certainly more than the Twins. It might be a stretch to say out guys could do what their guys could not accomplish. Still, sometimes an organizational change and some maturation wakes up a player and helps them to focus where before they had problems.

[Twinsgypsy]

57 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Cabrera was a trade I proposed last November, but I put him in the bullpen. He is out of options and a little shaky with his control, but basically unhittable when going well. In terms of coaching, I love the cool and confidence that Maki projects. However, we should remember that Miami is a franchise that seems to develop more pitchers than most organizations and certainly more than the Twins. It might be a stretch to say out guys could do what their guys could not accomplish. Still, sometimes an organizational change and some maturation wakes up a player and helps them to focus where before they had problems.

I missed that suggestion. You had a good idea way before me.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Twinsgypsy said:

I missed that suggestion. You had a good idea way before me.

Actually, several people (including me) on Twins Daily were suggesting/ trying to pry Cabrera away from the Marlins the offseason before this one. The hope was that a blockbuster deal for Cabrera and Luzardo for Arraez could be done. Both players were not as highly thought of then, although they still carried a decent price. People also suggested Lopez but the consensus for many (influenced by BTV) was that the Marlins would want Arraez plus two more considerable pieces for Lopez. Most of my plans for 2023 centered on acquiring both Cabrera and Luzardo because I too believed that Miami would not trade Pablo. Shows you what we all know.

[cmoss84]

Whit Merrifield and Brandon Woodruff. 

[Cris E]

15 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Whit Merrifield and Brandon Woodruff. 

Um, Michael Taylor and former US Pres Zachary Taylor? Am I doing this right?

No Merrifield because he's redundant with the similar Martin (who can also play SS and CF) and no Woodriff because he's going to get a much, much larger deal than we want to pay.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

Whit Merrifield and Brandon Woodruff. 

Doubt the Pohlads buy lottery tickets.

[cmoss84]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Doubt the Pohlads buy lottery tickets.

This is what I would do. Not the Pohlads :)