The Table Setter, Jan. 29, 2024: Baby Tigers and Big Pre-Debut Deals

[Ted Schwerzler]

While the Minnesota Twins have yet to make a move of substance this winter, both the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers have remained active. Over the weekend, the Motor City Kitties paid for long-term control of an elite prospect.

Image courtesy of © Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Heading into the 2024 MLB season, it’s worth wondering who challenges the Minnesota Twins atop the American League Central. Although it has been the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians in recent seasons, it appears that the Detroit Tigers could be close to contending.

While they have made some splashes in free agency, notably adding former Twins starter Kenta Maeda, the biggest move may have been extending prospect Colt Keith on Sunday. Their number two prospect, behind only Max Clark, got a six-year deal worth $28.6 million. An additional three option years and various escalators could more than triple that total.

The deal clears any foreseeable hurdles to Keith playing alongside Javier Báez up the middle to start the season. It’s worth wondering if this type of payday isn’t something Minnesota may have interest in with regard to a prospect like Brooks Lee, but there are important differences at play. Keither was a fourth-round selection in the COVID-shortened 2020 MLB Draft; he cost the Tigers just $500,000 coming out of school. Being able to offer this level of a payday is easier after development pushed him up the prospect charts, and the team has more leverage in the negotiation.

For a prospect like Brooks Lee, Minnesota used a first-round pick and immediately invested $5.65 million as a bonus. Minnesota also has no immediate opening for Lee, with Edouard Julien at second, Carlos Correa at shortstop, and Royce Lewis at third. A deal that buys out his arbitration years could be something that makes him even more enticing from a trade perspective, though.

This front office has done extensions prior to free agency before, with players like Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sanó, and (most recently) Pablo López. Working on a pre-arbitration extension is a bit different, but maybe replicating Keith’s blueprint is something that the organization would have interest in regarding a few different players.

Who would you like to see Minnesota try to extend this season? How much of an impact do you think Keith makes this season for Detroit?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I could see extensions for a number of young guys if they are open to it. Julien comes to mind, as does Lewis and possibly Duran. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

46 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I could see extensions for a number of young guys if they are open to it. Julien comes to mind, as does Lewis and possibly Duran. 

Julien is a good call. Obviously you don't have as much value with a guy who's already established himself in the big leagues, but he, too, only got $493,000 as a signing bonus, so you might have better leverage with him than with, say, Lee. Lewis, to me, is just out of reach. Got too much when drafted, has racked up too much service time already. But you certainly go to him to check in, at least.

[Dman]

I don't think the Twins have a Colt Keith type player ready for this year. His numbers are really good and he didn't get much of a signing bonus so he has to be thrilled with that deal.  It is possible that maybe Schobel or Keaschall could fit that role if their bats come around but like you said the infield is pretty full so not sure the Twins would feel the need.

Also possible that if Rodriguez takes the next step and gets the K's under control that the Twins might do a deal like that with him or Rosario, but their bats would need to be better than they are right now.  It takes a special player and special circumstances to get one of those deals done IMO.

Keith has a very solid batting line. It's a Brooks Lee line with better power.  Hard to say how well he will do his first year at the MLB level but long term the odds look to me that he will be a better than average player.  MLB is really tough as the pitching is really good, but his approach has been solid the whole way up.  I think the Tigers got a great deal.  They are a team on the rise.

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I could see extensions for a number of young guys if they are open to it. Julien comes to mind, as does Lewis and possibly Duran. 

Julien could make sense in the vein of Keith as he got just a $493k bonus. Lewis was paid handsomely in the draft, and I don’t know that Boras wants to cap his future earnings. Could see him as a 2nd yr arb extension guy.

[Beast]

Brilliant move for teams that have to pay a premium to attract big time talent, or refuse to spend an amount requisite to compete with teams willing to pay whatever it takes to win.

We’ve seen it here for decades now.  A handful of prospects graduating at a time - the rest of the roster is a bunch of garbage AAAA filler.  Scared to start arbitration clocks.  Guys who succeed quickly become too expensive and walk or get traded.

You just cannot succeed like that. It takes every star in the galaxy to align perfectly just to make it to playoffs in most divisions.  Winning a playoff series might happen once every couple of decades, and the window immediately slams shut.

This may be a middle ground where you can accumulate enough talent to sustain something.  You’re not trying to plan around future arbitration numbers of big time prospects.  You maybe buy some goodwill with the player/agent instead of haggling over a $1M in arbitration   If it doesn’t work out for the team but the player succeeds, you have huge trade value.  If it doesn’t work out for the player, oh well, the team was going to stink anyway.  You’re actively trying to find a route to success instead of being paralyzed by the fear of failure which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Beast]

2 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Julien could make sense in the vein of Keith as he got just a $493k bonus. Lewis was paid handsomely in the draft, and I don’t know that Boras wants to cap his future earnings. Could see him as a 2nd yr arb extension guy.

That’s where Boras and the unions aren’t really representing the player.  They’re worried about the upper end of the distribution.  They don’t care about the player that washed out at the big league level and now has to sell insurance or work construction.

That’s where you need to have a conversation with out the agent somehow.  $25 million dollars is life changing money that ripples down multiple generations of your family if handled properly.

Also, these deals only bring a player through arbitration.  It’s not buying out your entire career.  You turn into star, you’re still going to make hundreds of millions after this deal.  But, if you don’t, which you probably won’t. You’re still taken care of.  A player that makes hundreds of millions is maybe sacrificing an additional $50-$100 million tops?  But, you’re really buying insurance in the event you turn into Miguel Sano, Jason Kubel, etc.

If I’m Lewis, I just all over a good deal right now.  High upside with him, but also huge injury risk.  He’s more likely to be medically retired at the end of arbitration than be on a 10 year, $40M per deal.  $10 million from the draft is nice.  $40 million from the draft and an arbitration buyout contract is better.  Take the money, use half to buy up farmland or other prime real estate, and never worry about working a day in your life no matter what happens on/off the field.

[Jocko87]

4 minutes ago, Beast said:

That’s where Boras and the unions aren’t really representing the player.  They’re worried about the upper end of the distribution.  They don’t care about the player that washed out at the big league level and now has to sell insurance or work construction.

That’s where you need to have a conversation with out the agent somehow.  $25 million dollars is life changing money that ripples down multiple generations of your family if handled properly.

Also, these deals only bring a player through arbitration.  It’s not buying out your entire career.  You turn into star, you’re still going to make hundreds of millions after this deal.  But, if you don’t, which you probably won’t. You’re still taken care of.  A player that makes hundreds of millions is maybe sacrificing an additional $50-$100 million tops?  But, you’re really buying insurance in the event you turn into Miguel Sano, Jason Kubel, etc.

If I’m Lewis, I just all over a good deal right now.  High upside with him, but also huge injury risk.  He’s more likely to be medically retired at the end of arbitration than be on a 10 year, $40M per deal.  $10 million from the draft is nice.  $40 million from the draft and an arbitration buyout contract is better.  Take the money, use half to buy up farmland or other prime real estate, and never worry about working a day in your life no matter what happens on/off the field.

On the other hand, Boras doesn't usually rep a lot of future insurance agents. The bottom end of the distribution is not his business because he doesn't operate there. Others do, and should be more open to these type of contracts.

[Blyleven2011]

Lewis  has shown he is a game changer when healthy  ...

If he continues playing at a high level  , he's worth locking up for the Twins  ...

They gave Buxton  7 years and 100 million  plus incentives  and he was well known for injures and has played over a 100 games only once   ...

Give Lewis  a 7 year contract  at 100 million  plus incentives , I think he will surpass playing over 100 games each year even with some injuries , unless he blows the knee out again  ...

Play him at 3rd base and watch him be an allstar for years ...