The Table Setter, Jan. 29, 2024: Baby Tigers and Big Pre-Debut Deals

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I could see extensions for a number of young guys if they are open to it. Julien comes to mind, as does Lewis and possibly Duran. 

Julien could make sense in the vein of Keith as he got just a $493k bonus. Lewis was paid handsomely in the draft, and I don’t know that Boras wants to cap his future earnings. Could see him as a 2nd yr arb extension guy.

Brilliant move for teams that have to pay a premium to attract big time talent, or refuse to spend an amount requisite to compete with teams willing to pay whatever it takes to win.

We’ve seen it here for decades now.  A handful of prospects graduating at a time - the rest of the roster is a bunch of garbage AAAA filler.  Scared to start arbitration clocks.  Guys who succeed quickly become too expensive and walk or get traded.

You just cannot succeed like that. It takes every star in the galaxy to align perfectly just to make it to playoffs in most divisions.  Winning a playoff series might happen once every couple of decades, and the window immediately slams shut.

This may be a middle ground where you can accumulate enough talent to sustain something.  You’re not trying to plan around future arbitration numbers of big time prospects.  You maybe buy some goodwill with the player/agent instead of haggling over a $1M in arbitration   If it doesn’t work out for the team but the player succeeds, you have huge trade value.  If it doesn’t work out for the player, oh well, the team was going to stink anyway.  You’re actively trying to find a route to success instead of being paralyzed by the fear of failure which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

2 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Julien could make sense in the vein of Keith as he got just a $493k bonus. Lewis was paid handsomely in the draft, and I don’t know that Boras wants to cap his future earnings. Could see him as a 2nd yr arb extension guy.

That’s where Boras and the unions aren’t really representing the player.  They’re worried about the upper end of the distribution.  They don’t care about the player that washed out at the big league level and now has to sell insurance or work construction.

That’s where you need to have a conversation with out the agent somehow.  $25 million dollars is life changing money that ripples down multiple generations of your family if handled properly.

Also, these deals only bring a player through arbitration.  It’s not buying out your entire career.  You turn into star, you’re still going to make hundreds of millions after this deal.  But, if you don’t, which you probably won’t. You’re still taken care of.  A player that makes hundreds of millions is maybe sacrificing an additional $50-$100 million tops?  But, you’re really buying insurance in the event you turn into Miguel Sano, Jason Kubel, etc.

If I’m Lewis, I just all over a good deal right now.  High upside with him, but also huge injury risk.  He’s more likely to be medically retired at the end of arbitration than be on a 10 year, $40M per deal.  $10 million from the draft is nice.  $40 million from the draft and an arbitration buyout contract is better.  Take the money, use half to buy up farmland or other prime real estate, and never worry about working a day in your life no matter what happens on/off the field.

Lewis  has shown he is a game changer when healthy  ...

If he continues playing at a high level  , he's worth locking up for the Twins  ...

They gave Buxton  7 years and 100 million  plus incentives  and he was well known for injures and has played over a 100 games only once   ...

Give Lewis  a 7 year contract  at 100 million  plus incentives , I think he will surpass playing over 100 games each year even with some injuries , unless he blows the knee out again  ...

Play him at 3rd base and watch him be an allstar for years ...