Are Twins fans underrating Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober?

[arby58]

I have more confidence that Ober has not hit his ceiling. His height and release point make him a unique pitcher - there are very few 6'9" pitchers (more likely to be rebounders). His falling off last year was likely to be because of hitting his innings pitched ceiling, which should become less of an issue as he gets more innings pitched.

Ryan is just a solid 3 starter, IMHO, until he gets his fastball percentage in high leverage situations down. There are few starting pitchers who get by on a two pitch mix, which no doubt contributes to the balls leaving the ballpark thing with him. I tend to think Varland's ceiling (throws harder, more pitch mix) is higher than Ryan's. That said, happy to hand him the ball every fifth day - but maybe not the playoffs.

[stringer bell]

29 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I agree with your comments.  That said, with the infield logjam and other tradeable assets, I do feel the Twins should be able to (and should) trade for a #2 or #3 starter to supplement our starters.

Given the high price attached to pitching, I have a hard time seeing the Twins thread the needle of getting a #2 or #3 starter by trade. Getting a "good" starter with at least an additional year of team control means that the pitcher would be making more than the salary of one of the Twins' prime trade chips (Polanco, Kepler). The cost in prospects and players would be higher than that prime trade chip and given the apparent ceiling of about $120M for payroll, the Twins would have to shed as much as they obtain. 

Also, the universe of available good starters is pretty small. For a team to take on Kepler or Polanco's contract, they need to believe they can win this year and they can afford to trade a "good" starter. 

I am of the opinion that if the Twins get a starter, it will be someone with some negatives attached to their resumé that the Twins think they can fix.

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/14/2024 at 12:38 AM, Rik19753 said:

Reading comments and articles on Twins Daily, I think Twins fans currently perceive Ryan and Ober as good-but-not-great pitchers that you preferably don't want to start in playoff games. The fact that Ryan was far from great in the 2nd half and that both pitchers were underwhelming in their playoff starts seem to reinforce this idea.

While I generally agree with this perception, a recent post on Fangraphs has me thinking that we may be selling Ryan and Ober short.

Fangraphs released their 2024 fantasy baseball SP rankings, and they had Ryan and Ober as the 30th and 31st ranked SPs, respectively. Obviously, fantasy baseball rankings are different from actual rankings in that they place some value on wins and Ks, but I think you can use them as an estimate as to how players stack up relative to the rest of the league.

Some interesting takeaways from this ranking are

・Ryan and Ober are fringe 1st starters/elite 2nd starters

・More than one third of teams (12 teams to be exact) don't have any pitchers ranked as highly as Ryan or Ober

・While the loss of Gray (ranked 25th) hurts, Ryan and Ober are pretty much in the same tier

・While we dream about trade targets like Luzardo (26th), Mitch Keller (50th), Bryce Miller (51st), Bryan Woo (55th) as playoff caliber starters, even if the Twins acquire one of them the playoff rotation may be Lopez, Ryan and Ober

・Teams can make playoff runs with much worse staffs.

ARI: Gallen(7th), Kelly(59th), Pfaadt(66th)

TEX: Montgomery(41st), Eovaldi(60th), Heaney(114th)

 

This has me thinking that maybe it isn't the worst thing in the world if we don't end up trading for a top of the rotation arm.

Can’t have League low ERA in ‘23 for the rotation with 2 good pitchers! Ober & Ryan, to me, are middle of the pack #2’s - higher end #3’s. This is great, with Paddack being a solid #3. All 3 of these guys are in question because Minnesotan’s don’t like to beat their chest & more so, because of their potential for limited availability. When healthy, they stack up very well behind Pablo!!

BTW, he’s #8. Also, was #8 on MLB’s Top 10 starters for 2024!! In ‘23 he was 23rd in baseball in ERA - threw 194 innings - 3rd in the game in K’s - #1 in xWOBA. That’s an ACE!

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I have more confidence that Ober has not hit his ceiling. His height and release point make him a unique pitcher - there are very few 6'9" pitchers (more likely to be rebounders). His falling off last year was likely to be because of hitting his innings pitched ceiling, which should become less of an issue as he gets more innings pitched.

Ryan is just a solid 3 starter, IMHO, until he gets his fastball percentage in high leverage situations down. There are few starting pitchers who get by on a two pitch mix, which no doubt contributes to the balls leaving the ballpark thing with him. I tend to think Varland's ceiling (throws harder, more pitch mix) is higher than Ryan's. That said, happy to hand him the ball every fifth day - but maybe not the playoffs.

Ryan does need more than two pitches to succeed, but he showed on several occasions that he does have three (fastball, sweeper, change). He was inconsistent with his secondary pitches and not as consistent with his fastball in the second half of the season, possibly related to injury. As is, he is a solid #3. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/14/2024 at 10:47 AM, stringer bell said:

It will be interesting what a list of starting pitchers will look like a year from now. Except for the cream of the crop, pitching is so volatile that it is just hard to know. Like everyone else, I'd love to see the Twins add a quality arm before the season starts, but it isn't easy, especially given the (self imposed) salary restraints in place for the Twins.

Currently in the high teens for Payroll? ($118M?) Move Polanco.

$135M budget ceiling. There’s room for an arm!! 

Could add Clevinger & keep Polanco or trade later. Just because they sign a FA doesn’t mean they stop trying to trade for a controllable arm………can always trade later if there’s an unexpected glut!

[August J Gloop]

This is darn right, Ya'll. Pablo, Luzardo, Ryan, Ober, Woo, Paddack. Upside, multiple seasons of staying together. That's a great starting 6. Can be had with limited expenditures of anything but money, Kep and Polo.  A couple mid level prospects might need to get involved, but it's within reach, even in these uncertain financial times. 

I'm actually kinda keen on pointing MaxK to Atlanta these days. I think there's a bigger deal that could be done for Max Fried. ATL has failed to lock him up like all the others. If they sent Kepler, that would let Acuna move to left where their OF D would be truly elite and ATL could score a top prospect to help soothe the loss of Fried. Would one season of Fried at 5 Million be worth Brooks Lee to the Twins? Probably.  If there was a sensible extension to have, certainly.

Then I would wrestle with what to with Polo. Is there a deal with MIA that gets Luzardo? Odds are if they pay Polo's salary and Luzardo's, they can probably get it done with SWR or maybe Festa (not sure who the untouchables in pitching really are, know SWR isn' one of them). I'm fuzzy on if Polo is even attractive to the Marlins who seem to need  OF more than IF. 

[August J Gloop]

58 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Currently in the high teens for Payroll? ($118M?) Move Polanco.

$135M budget ceiling. There’s room for an arm!! 

Could add Clevinger & keep Polanco or trade later. Just because they sign a FA doesn’t mean they stop trying to trade for a controllable arm………can always trade later if there’s an unexpected glut!

Just remember Clevinger is a clubhouse cancer who sidelines in beating women. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaredwyllys/2023/01/25/mike-clevinger-is-a-problem-the-chicago-white-sox-dont-want/?sh=6e28c6003c14

and then look at his grody projections

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mike-clevinger/12808/stats?position=P

I'm good there. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Can’t have League low ERA in ‘23 for the rotation with 2 good pitchers! Ober & Ryan, to me, are middle of the pack #2’s - higher end #3’s. This is great, with Paddack being a solid #3. All 3 of these guys are in question because Minnesotan’s don’t like to beat their chest & more so, because of their potential for limited availability. When healthy, they stack up very well behind Pablo!!

BTW, he’s #8. Also, was #8 on MLB’s Top 10 starters for 2024!! In ‘23 he was 23rd in baseball in ERA - threw 194 innings - 3rd in the game in K’s - #1 in xWOBA. That’s an ACE!

Logan Webb was #8 in MLB's Top 10 Starters Right Now for 2024. Pablo didn't make the list. Which ranking are you referring to?

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, August J Gloop said:

This is darn right, Ya'll. Pablo, Luzardo, Ryan, Ober, Woo, Paddack. Upside, multiple seasons of staying together. That's a great starting 6. Can be had with limited expenditures of anything but money, Kep and Polo.  A couple mid level prospects might need to get involved, but it's within reach, even in these uncertain financial times. 

I'm actually kinda keen on pointing MaxK to Atlanta these days. I think there's a bigger deal that could be done for Max Fried. ATL has failed to lock him up like all the others. If they sent Kepler, that would let Acuna move to left where their OF D would be truly elite and ATL could score a top prospect to help soothe the loss of Fried. Would one season of Fried at 5 Million be worth Brooks Lee to the Twins? Probably.  If there was a sensible extension to have, certainly.

Then I would wrestle with what to with Polo. Is there a deal with MIA that gets Luzardo? Odds are if they pay Polo's salary and Luzardo's, they can probably get it done with SWR or maybe Festa (not sure who the untouchables in pitching really are, know SWR isn' one of them). I'm fuzzy on if Polo is even attractive to the Marlins who seem to need  OF more than IF. 

I agree Ryan and Ober are solid MLB starters, so adding a young star or two to the current set really lines up the Twins for a bright future. I'd reach to get a Luzardo and also try for one more Miller/Woo/Keller type to fill in the back of the rotation to ensure we keep evolving as Grey and Maeda and such move on.

But adding a short contract guy like Fried is pretty optimistic.  If we don't have money to keep Polanco or Kepler then we're really going to face problems extending Fried followed by Ryan, Ober, Luzardo, etc. The notion of trading that much future for one year of a guy like Fried is not a solid plan unless we get to the World Series or we get an extension signed, and that extension not something ATL felt they could nail down. I don't see how MIN would do it when those deep and smart pockets could/would not. That's why I prefer spending more for more years of control (Luzardo over Fried) and especially so when it would cost a big chip like Lee.

(Also, there's no way Luzardo comes to MIN for Polanco, $10m and Festa or SWR.  Every team in MLB would make that deal in under ten minutes, which means that it's probably not enough. )

[KBJ1]

Highly doubtful that we make a big splash with a signing/ trade for a SP.

We will have to hope what we have is good enough. That said, the cheapest and smartest way to address pitching is to trade Pollo to the Cubs for Devin Wiiliams. 

[wabene]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Ryan does need more than two pitches to succeed, but he showed on several occasions that he does have three (fastball, sweeper, change). He was inconsistent with his secondary pitches and not as consistent with his fastball in the second half of the season, possibly related to injury. As is, he is a solid #3. 

Agreed except wasn't it fastball, sweeper and splitter or split change? 

[August J Gloop]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

I agree Ryan and Ober are solid MLB starters, so adding a young star or two to the current set really lines up the Twins for a bright future. I'd reach to get a Luzardo and also try for one more Miller/Woo/Keller type to fill in the back of the rotation to ensure we keep evolving as Grey and Maeda and such move on.

But adding a short contract guy like Fried is pretty optimistic.  If we don't have money to keep Polanco or Kepler then we're really going to face problems extending Fried followed by Ryan, Ober, Luzardo, etc. The notion of trading that much future for one year of a guy like Fried is not a solid plan unless we get to the World Series or we get an extension signed, and that extension not something ATL felt they could nail down. I don't see how MIN would do it when those deep and smart pockets could/would not. That's why I prefer spending more for more years of control (Luzardo over Fried) and especially so when it would cost a big chip like Lee.

(Also, there's no way Luzardo comes to MIN for Polanco, $10m and Festa or SWR.  Every team in MLB would make that deal in under ten minutes, which means that it's probably not enough. )

With Fried, i think the main thing was his injuries were badly timed and he wants to test the market. I am maybe less optimistic about the long term prospects of Lee anyway so I am thinking the 5 Mil year of Fried and the comp pick will be similar value, and would be willing to risk being wrong.

As for Polo I think most teams would do it, but they don't have Polo and a better replacement at 2B. The Twins are darn close to having two of the top 10 2Bs on the same roster.  In fact I don't think most teams have any surplus value on their infield (Reds excluded), let alone two top shelf hitters. I assume the delay is the Twins waiting out teams hoping that the Twins will instead send Julien. His placement on the top10 right now is fortuitous, since it means that most teams have their shredder placing Julien high as well. 

Julien for Luzardo and Meyer? I feel like Julien is currently worth two good chips. That could be dumb. But I'd definitely be willing to make that risk as well, but then the ATL deal would have to be cash for cash, no Brooks lee.