Hindsight 20/23: Looking at How the Twins Opened 2023 for Clues to 2024

[Steven Trefz]

The Twins' season-opening road trip in 2023 included statement games, exciting promise, debut performances, and trending disappointments. What can the first week of 2023 teach us about how the Twins aim to approach 2024?

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

When the Twins' 2023 campaign opened at Kauffman Stadium on a chilly Thursday, Mar. 30, expectations were tempered. The Cleveland Guardians entered the season with a slight edge in the AL Central odds race, with the Chicago White Sox also in the mix. The Twins were right there in the conversation, but on Opening Day, a playoff run was not a foregone conclusion for the squad.

A look back at the lineup and bullpen usage might surprise you. Max Kepler led off, Carlos Correa batted second, while Byron Buxton was batting third to kick off his designated hitter plan for the season. The clean-up hitter, Trevor Larnach, was followed by José Miranda in the fifth spot. Next was the second baseman, looking to build upon his solid 2022 campaign… Nick Gordon. A trio of new guys rounded out the Opening Day lineup, with Joey Gallo hitting seventh, Christian Vazquez batting eighth, and Michael A. Taylor holding down the ninth spot. The other new Twins entered the game as pinch-hitters when Zack Greinke was replaced by a lefty in the sixth inning.  Kyle Farmer took Gordon’s spot, and Donovan Solano took over at first for Gallo. 

Pablo López got the start for his new team, and he threw 5 1/3 innings of two-hit baseball. What followed was an ensemble relief performance of hitless excellence, with Caleb Thielbar, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Durán closing the door on a 2-0 victory.

The lineup stayed relatively consistent as the Twins opened the season with a fanbase-simmering 4-0 start on the road. In fact, Ryan Jeffers getting a turn at catcher in the series finale in Kansas City was the only difference in the starting lineup through the first four games. Then, injury struck. Kepler pulled up while running to first base during game four in Miami, and the outfield shifted around for game five of the season. Willi Castro took left field, Larnach moved to right field, and the lineup went without Buxton for the first time due to “planned rest.” What followed was a punchless 1-0 shutout loss to 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcántara; a wasted stellar return from Kenta Maeda; and the start of a lineup fluctuation that never really stopped in 2023. All of this occurred while Twins fans tried to make peace with their inner “Carew,” while watching Luis Arráez raise his 2022 Silver Slugger Award in another uniform and swing his way to the start of a second consecutive batting title.

Buxton returned to claim the leadoff spot for game six, and Solano got his first taste of the third spot as we began to see how the Twins would approach lefty starters like Jesús Luzardo during the season. Hot-hitting Larnach was dropped to eighth, and notched the team's only RBI for the afternoon. Pablo Day was back in effect, as he only surrendered one run over seven innings, but Dylan Floro got the win in relief for the Marlins, as the Twins' relief combination of Thielbar and Jax imploded to hand Miami the series victory and bring Twins Territory crashing back to reality and a 4-2 record. This was good enough to lead the division, but ultimately provided a glimpse of the reality that this quality squad was going to fall just shy of “what could be” in 2023.

What can we glean from the first six road games of 2023? Here are my Top 5 Takeaways from the opening week of last season, as we begin to dream in earnest about Opening Day, 2024, coming up on Mar. 28. (The Twins will open at Kauffman Stadium once again, for yet another season-opening road trip.)

1. There was an “intention” of lineup consistency that never made its way to week two. Throughout most of the season, the lineup varied by the day, with Correa moving up and down the list, and the other infield spots alternating according to the vagaries injury and splits. This year should start with more of the same intentionality, with a core nine rising to the top early. Surely, injuries and slumps will determine how long that lasts, but we should remember that it was the original goal.
2. What roles will key incumbent Opening Day starters Gordon, Larnach, and Miranda have when the 2024 edition rolls around? Seen as vital cogs to the 2023 playoff machine last spring, they became afterthoughts before June finished. Larnach carried the offense through the first two months, but injuries again derailed his opportunities. He experienced a late-season resurgence, but got left out of the playoff rotation.  Does this trio still have a place on the roster, with the emergence of Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis in the infield, and Matt Wallner in the outfield? Some of the quiet offseason that Twins fans are bemoaning now probably reflects the reality that Gordon, Larnach, and Miranda are looking to rebound in 2024. How many Opening Day starters are available as free agents right now who are worth the price of an upgrade over these young Twins?
3. The Twins bullpen alternated between lights-out and close-your-eyes from the very beginning. The inconsistency of the “next tier” of Jovani Moran, Cole Sands, Emilio Pagán, and Jorge Alcalá showed warning signs right from the get-go, despite the 4-2 start. Also, Thielbar, Jorge López, and Jax all showed the ability to lose their grip in a heartbeat. Pagán recovered, but is now gone, while the lesser Lopez continued to struggle and left under a cloud after the All-Star break--in exchange for Floro, who vanquished them in that early road contest. Moran was non-tendered after the season, then re-signed to a minor-league deal. Sands, Alcalá, Thielbar and Jax all remain, and will no doubt factor into the bullpen conversation relatively early. Brock Stewart became a “find” mid-season, and looks to return to a prominent role alongside Durán. Who takes control and finds a “role” in the Opening Day bullpen next to them? If the start of 2023 taught us anything, it's that you can never have enough arms waiting in the wings.
4. Pablo López was “him” from the very start of his Twins career. He won the playoff game that ended the curse, and he returned to bring the only Twins victory against Houston in the next round. While his ERA crept up in the middle months of the season, it bodes well that he showed up ready to roll from game one, and López should be ready once again to start strong in 2024.
5. Last, but not least, we remember that when Byron Buxton is healthy and in the lineup, he is amazing. The Twins jumped out to their 4-0 start because Buxton willed them to offensively.  After game four, he was batting .375 with a 1.000 OPS. From his shoes to his demeanor, he looked electric. Then, before the Twins could even make it back home, he wasn’t anymore. It was clear that something was wrong, and once the travel and games began to stack up, his knee and demeanor buckled. He fought valiantly through the pain, but if we can believe the reports coming out this offseason about a “pain-free knee” and a plan to return to center field, 2024 could be the year for our starcrossed All-Star.

Hindsight truly is 20/20, but its all we have to work with in the midst of this frozen cold stove. What do you remember about the Twins' 4-0 start to 2023? What surprises you when you compare the Opening Day lineup to the playoff version? Who will emerge in the bullpen rotation once the season kicks off? What do you expect, from Pablo Days to Buck Trucks, in 2024? Let the prognostication begin!

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[Dman]

Nicely done!  Enjoyed the recap of the beginning of the season. 🙂

[Fatbat]

That was an exciting 4 games and I was thinking that the other shoe would drop but not as soon as it did. And then the Rays won for weeks and weeks. and then they didn't in October. Baseball is a hard game with a long season. 

[Karbo]

Larnach led the team in RBI's, even for a while after he was sent down. Miranda had a bad shoulder in ST and never bounced back. I think both have a chance to be big contributors this next season.

[Blyleven2011]

I remember the the opening  road series , swept the royals , and won 1 out of 3 against  the marlins  , and arraez was in the marlins lineup  but I'm sure he was happy to see his old friends  the Twins though ...

[Riverbrian]

If you ever want to know what a front office is thinking, If you ever want to know how the front office ranks players. The opening day roster and the opening day lineup are the front office indirectly letting you know what they think. 

It isn't ceremonial.

The front office is telling you who they think will get the job done. If you are looking for evidence of mistakes made by a front office... you will find that evidence on every opening day roster on all 30 teams.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, Karbo said:

Larnach led the team in RBI's, even for a while after he was sent down. Miranda had a bad shoulder in ST and never bounced back. I think both have a chance to be big contributors this next season.

I hope you are right.  We could use the OF depth Larnach could provide and Miranda was one of the best players on the team for quite a stretch in 2022.