Which Cristian Javier Do the Twins Get?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins evened the American League Division Series with a win on the road against the Houston Astros on Sunday night. Now returning home for a pair of games and a chance to clinch, they’ll face Cristian Javier and look to get favorable results. The question is, which version of the Astros pitcher shows up to the ballpark?

 

Image courtesy of Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli’s squad was always going to find themselves up against a difficult situation during Game 1 facing Justin Verlander. While Bailey Ober tried to keep things close, Yordan Alvarez had other plans, and Minnesota’s 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position sealed their fate. Having knocked off the lone lefty in the series by beating Framber Valdez in Game 2, the Twins now turn their attention to Cristian Javier.

A year ago, the Houston Astros won the World Series, The 26-year-old Dominican was front and center in that run, and his two starts across the Championship and World Series totaled 11 1/3 innings of one hit baseball. Javier did allow some traffic with five walks, but his 14 strikeouts evened out the performance.

To say his dominance would have been expected last postseason is pretty fair considering the regular season performance. Javier posted a 2.54 ERA across 148 2/3 innings. He made 30 appearances, of which 25 were starts. His 11.7 K/9 was a career high, and his 5.4 H/9 was a career low. The innings limitations kept him out of Cy Young award voting, but he was certainly nothing short of amazing.

This season is not at all a replication of 2022 for the Astros hurler.

In 2022, Javier has worked solely as a starter. Making 31 appearances, Javier posted a gaudy 4.56 ERA, and his 4.58 FIP is reflective of that number being fair. He also has dropped three strikeouts per nine innings off of his production, and he’s allowing a career-worst 7.9 H/9. At 3.4 BB/9, Javier is finding himself with traffic on the base paths pretty often.

Under the hood, numbers aren’t pretty either. Javier’s 92.8 mph average fastball velocity this year is roughly a full mph drop from the 2022 average. That’s a significant change for a 26-year-old to experience in the midst of their prime. Not surprisingly, the drop in velocity has also correlated to the highest hard-hit rate of Javier’s career. It’s also not a shock that the strikeout drop has resulted in a career-low whiff rate as well.

With the series heading back to Target Field for the Twins, Game 3 is maybe the most important postseason game of their run. Needed to take their first lead in the American League Division Series, Javier presents an opportunity for Minnesota to close things out in Game 4. The odds favor teams heading home when taking a win on the road in the first two contests, and the pitching matchups significantly trend towards the Twins favor.

Not only is Javier the soft spot in the Astros rotation, but the Twins won’t see Valdez again, and Verlander going before Game 5 seems unlikely. Across his more than 3,500 career innings, the future Hall of Famer has never thrown on less than four days of rest. If Minnesota can find a way to avoid him for a second time entirely, it would start by beating Javier on Tuesday.

Carlos Correa will look to lead Baldelli’s lefty-infused lineup for Game 3, and while Javier hasn’t looked at all like the pitcher he was a year ago, the Twins can’t take the opportunity for granted. Houston's starter has allowed an .815 OPS to lefties this season while holding righties to a .637 OPS. As the team continues to work their platoons, Donovan Solano, Willi Castro, and Kyle Farmer will all be looked upon as Javier exits and Minnesota hopefully has a lead.

Coming in with preparation for the third starter, and making sure they are ready to execute on the game plan could present the biggest win of the season. Houston was a much better team on the road this season, and although Minnesota got them for one on Sunday, they'll need to do work at Target Field for the series to be decided in their favor.

It’s supposed to be a sunny day in Minneapolis, and Sonny Gray is on the mound for the Twins. Fans can leave feeling good about the effort if Javier is bested in the process.

View full article

[nicksaviking]

I see a Cristian Javier who's a barber on Facebook. That's the one I want.

[Blyleven2011]

Javier  gave us problems last year for sure  ...

This year he's beatable  as his velo has diminished and numbers have risen ...

I'm sure he'll be pumped up , every player should have more adrenaline  and determination in the playoffs , everyone  ...

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

In a vacuum, the Twins have a 52% chance of winning the series before game three: (0.54^2)+2((0.46^2)(0.54))=0.5201. Mentality plays a huge factor in that number being 67%- I hope the Twins have their heads screwed on straight.

As for Javier, he's been mostly four-seam/slider throughout his career, which has worked because he has a really funky fastball and one of the best sliders in baseball. This year, however, his slider has been hit really hard, and it has lost a lot of the sweep that made it effective (Whiff rate is down from 39.4% to 28.7% from last year). I saw some pundits who were encouraged by his performance against the D-Backs on the last day of the year (six shutout innings), but he went 0-3 with a 5.11 ERA in the month of September, with his slider being nowhere near its 2022 form, much less August '23 (less spin, less whiff, higher BA against compared to the previous month).

Overall, Javier is not a formidable opponent, and the Twins should key in on his fastball because his slider is not frightening. Good chance for the Twins to go 75.2% odds in a vacuum after tonight: (0.54)+(0.46^2)=0.7516.

[Kevin Urdahl]

Question answered. The good one.

 

[IndianaTwin]

The wrong one. 

[Mortimerkenny21]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I see a Cristian Javier who's a barber on Facebook. That's the one I want.

Not this one.

[gil4]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I see a Cristian Javier who's a barber on Facebook. That's the one I want.

"Sal the Barber" Maglie was a pretty good pitcher. Apparently, so is "Cristian the Barber" Javier.   

[olerud]

the Cy young version