Which Cristian Javier Do the Twins Get?

Rocco Baldelli’s squad was always going to find themselves up against a difficult situation during Game 1 facing Justin Verlander. While Bailey Ober tried to keep things close, Yordan Alvarez had other plans, and Minnesota’s 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position sealed their fate. Having knocked off the lone lefty in the series by beating Framber Valdez in Game 2, the Twins now turn their attention to Cristian Javier.

A year ago, the Houston Astros won the World Series, The 26-year-old Dominican was front and center in that run, and his two starts across the Championship and World Series totaled 11 1/3 innings of one hit baseball. Javier did allow some traffic with five walks, but his 14 strikeouts evened out the performance.

To say his dominance would have been expected last postseason is pretty fair considering the regular season performance. Javier posted a 2.54 ERA across 148 2/3 innings. He made 30 appearances, of which 25 were starts. His 11.7 K/9 was a career high, and his 5.4 H/9 was a career low. The innings limitations kept him out of Cy Young award voting, but he was certainly nothing short of amazing.

This season is not at all a replication of 2022 for the Astros hurler.

In 2022, Javier has worked solely as a starter. Making 31 appearances, Javier posted a gaudy 4.56 ERA, and his 4.58 FIP is reflective of that number being fair. He also has dropped three strikeouts per nine innings off of his production, and he’s allowing a career-worst 7.9 H/9. At 3.4 BB/9, Javier is finding himself with traffic on the base paths pretty often.

Under the hood, numbers aren’t pretty either. Javier’s 92.8 mph average fastball velocity this year is roughly a full mph drop from the 2022 average. That’s a significant change for a 26-year-old to experience in the midst of their prime. Not surprisingly, the drop in velocity has also correlated to the highest hard-hit rate of Javier’s career. It’s also not a shock that the strikeout drop has resulted in a career-low whiff rate as well.

With the series heading back to Target Field for the Twins, Game 3 is maybe the most important postseason game of their run. Needed to take their first lead in the American League Division Series, Javier presents an opportunity for Minnesota to close things out in Game 4. The odds favor teams heading home when taking a win on the road in the first two contests, and the pitching matchups significantly trend towards the Twins favor.

Not only is Javier the soft spot in the Astros rotation, but the Twins won’t see Valdez again, and Verlander going before Game 5 seems unlikely. Across his more than 3,500 career innings, the future Hall of Famer has never thrown on less than four days of rest. If Minnesota can find a way to avoid him for a second time entirely, it would start by beating Javier on Tuesday.

Carlos Correa will look to lead Baldelli’s lefty-infused lineup for Game 3, and while Javier hasn’t looked at all like the pitcher he was a year ago, the Twins can’t take the opportunity for granted. Houston's starter has allowed an .815 OPS to lefties this season while holding righties to a .637 OPS. As the team continues to work their platoons, Donovan Solano, Willi Castro, and Kyle Farmer will all be looked upon as Javier exits and Minnesota hopefully has a lead.

Coming in with preparation for the third starter, and making sure they are ready to execute on the game plan could present the biggest win of the season. Houston was a much better team on the road this season, and although Minnesota got them for one on Sunday, they'll need to do work at Target Field for the series to be decided in their favor.

It’s supposed to be a sunny day in Minneapolis, and Sonny Gray is on the mound for the Twins. Fans can leave feeling good about the effort if Javier is bested in the process.