Twins Minor League Report (8/1): A Quiet Trade Deadline for the Farm

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why would you think this is the only straw for me? That it isn't about the last three years? About Gallo? About the bullpen? Really, why?

Mike,  I guess I question why you are on your final straw and what you think would be significantly better.  Other than the Rays,  there is no other current small market team that is consistently outperforming what the Twins are doing in the past 7 years.  Bullpen stats the Twins are outperforming this year.  Gallo . . .  I guess I agree with you,  but right now if Kiriloff is out we do need a first baseman.  Gallo even in yesterdays game did nothing with the bat, but may have saved us a run by notifying the coaches the player stepped over the bag.  This team ultimately will go as far as Buxton and Correa's bat will take them.  If those 2 come along this team could do some damage.  

I guess for me looking at the whole organization I like what they have developed.   They have put a pretty good product on the field but would be better if the bats were performing.  I like what is coming up the pipeline and I really like the 2022 and 2023 drafts.   There are finally some players that could be all star players.   Yes its been 7 years,  but they outperformed in 2019 ahead of schedule.   I have stated before,  even last year the negativity on the boards seems extremely high.  I probably just need to ignore it.    

If I would have a concern its that the Twins in the last 7 years have continually tried to put a competitive team on the field rather than do a full rebuild.  Every year they have tried to put a quality product out there.  As a fan I can appreciate that.  The more times you get a chip and chair the more chance lightening can strike.  However taking that approach has also cost the Twins some good prospects (trading away essentially the entirety of the 2021 class) and having lower draft picks in general.  

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Mike,  I guess I question why you are on your final straw and what you think would be significantly better.  Other than the Rays,  there is no other current small market team that is consistently outperforming what the Twins are doing in the past 7 years.  Bullpen stats the Twins are outperforming this year.  Gallo . . .  I guess I agree with you,  but right now if Kiriloff is out we do need a first baseman.  Gallo even in yesterdays game did nothing with the bat, but may have saved us a run by notifying the coaches the player stepped over the bag.  This team ultimately will go as far as Buxton and Correa's bat will take them.  If those 2 come along this team could do some damage.  

I guess for me looking at the whole organization I like what they have developed.   They have put a pretty good product on the field but would be better if the bats were performing.  I like what is coming up the pipeline and I really like the 2022 and 2023 drafts.   There are finally some players that could be all star players.   Yes its been 7 years,  but they outperformed in 2019 ahead of schedule.   I have stated before,  even last year the negativity on the boards seems extremely high.  I probably just need to ignore it.    

If I would have a concern its that the Twins in the last 7 years have continually tried to put a competitive team on the field rather than do a full rebuild.  Every year they have tried to put a quality product out there.  As a fan I can appreciate that.  The more times you get a chip and chair the more chance lightening can strike.  However taking that approach has also cost the Twins some good prospects (trading away essentially the entirety of the 2021 class) and having lower draft picks in general.  

Post seven years? The longer this FO has been in control, the worse it's gotten . They've been in a terrible division, and didn't make the playoffs the last two years. The only reason Julien is up is because polanco got hurt a second time. They have no third baseman and need a RHOF, and Prato sits in AAA. 

What evidence is there that their plans work, since the pandemic shortened year?

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Mike,  I guess I question why you are on your final straw and what you think would be significantly better.  Other than the Rays,  there is no other current small market team that is consistently outperforming what the Twins are doing in the past 7 years.  Bullpen stats the Twins are outperforming this year.  Gallo . . .  I guess I agree with you,  but right now if Kiriloff is out we do need a first baseman.  Gallo even in yesterdays game did nothing with the bat, but may have saved us a run by notifying the coaches the player stepped over the bag.  This team ultimately will go as far as Buxton and Correa's bat will take them.  If those 2 come along this team could do some damage.  

I guess for me looking at the whole organization I like what they have developed.   They have put a pretty good product on the field but would be better if the bats were performing.  I like what is coming up the pipeline and I really like the 2022 and 2023 drafts.   There are finally some players that could be all star players.   Yes its been 7 years,  but they outperformed in 2019 ahead of schedule.   I have stated before,  even last year the negativity on the boards seems extremely high.  I probably just need to ignore it.    

If I would have a concern its that the Twins in the last 7 years have continually tried to put a competitive team on the field rather than do a full rebuild.  Every year they have tried to put a quality product out there.  As a fan I can appreciate that.  The more times you get a chip and chair the more chance lightening can strike.  However taking that approach has also cost the Twins some good prospects (trading away essentially the entirety of the 2021 class) and having lower draft picks in general.  

I've defended them every year until this one. I see no evidence they are willing to shoot their mistakes and move. I see no progress in the minors, since none of them are being promoted. 

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I've actually been wondering if they're keeping players down because they think they can "trick" other teams into not taking guys in the Rule 5. I really hope that isn't the idea, but I'm confused as to why they're not moving some guys up. But I'm often confused by their roster decisions these days so that's not really all that noteworthy.

They think they are the smartest people in the room  , only us fans knows that they are not smarter than a fifth grader ....

Team continues to get worse under their control  ...

[Blyleven2011]

I sure like doubles and Lee is leading the organization with 31 , hopefully he'll finish with 45 ....

Has the minor leagues changed , they used to be over in early September  , but quotes I've read think they Play to the end of September  ...

[FlyingFinn]

7 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Has the minor leagues changed , they used to be over in early September  , but quotes I've read think they Play to the end of September  ...

I didn't check all of them but Wichita ends September 17th, which is about the time I think A ball ends. AAA goes longer towards the end of September and I think the theory is that players needed to be called up would still be playing. Making the playoffs like Cedar Rapids has done extends their season.

[Omgbenji]

4 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

Good organizational depth. 24-year old getting his first action at the double-A level this year. He has stood out in a quite a few of my reports this year I feel like, hitting .300 with 30 steals, but is another lefty corner outfielder, lacking some thump. 

Ohhh, got it. Thanks for shedding a little light on that.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

48 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I've defended them every year until this one. I see no evidence they are willing to shoot their mistakes and move. I see no progress in the minors, since none of them are being promoted. 

We haven't promoted Lewis, Wallner, Julien, Varland, Balazovic, Headrick, Prato, Ohl, Cossetti, Yake, Culpepper, Lewis, Matthews, Morris, Raya, Schobel, Martin, Ober, Stewart and many others.  Some performance some to fill in for injuries.    Most would have said the Twins should have moved on from Pagan after last year.  He is performing pretty well so far this year.  Many were clamoring to drop Kepler who has 939 OPS in the last 15 games.   Right now Gallo is a major source of discontent.  Who should we replace him with,  and yes I am fine with letting him go.  Who should be promoted in the minors- Lee (a player who just before the all star break some were claiming was a poor pick), Prato, Williams???   I guess I am not sure what your master plan would be and how it would drastically change anything.    

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Mike,  I guess I question why you are on your final straw and what you think would be significantly better.  Other than the Rays,  there is no other current small market team that is consistently outperforming what the Twins are doing in the past 7 years.  Bullpen stats the Twins are outperforming this year.  Gallo . . .  I guess I agree with you,  but right now if Kiriloff is out we do need a first baseman.  Gallo even in yesterdays game did nothing with the bat, but may have saved us a run by notifying the coaches the player stepped over the bag.  This team ultimately will go as far as Buxton and Correa's bat will take them.  If those 2 come along this team could do some damage.  

I guess for me looking at the whole organization I like what they have developed.   They have put a pretty good product on the field but would be better if the bats were performing.  I like what is coming up the pipeline and I really like the 2022 and 2023 drafts.   There are finally some players that could be all star players.   Yes its been 7 years,  but they outperformed in 2019 ahead of schedule.   I have stated before,  even last year the negativity on the boards seems extremely high.  I probably just need to ignore it.    

If I would have a concern its that the Twins in the last 7 years have continually tried to put a competitive team on the field rather than do a full rebuild.  Every year they have tried to put a quality product out there.  As a fan I can appreciate that.  The more times you get a chip and chair the more chance lightening can strike.  However taking that approach has also cost the Twins some good prospects (trading away essentially the entirety of the 2021 class) and having lower draft picks in general.  

FYI, Gallo didn't inform the coaches that the player stepped over the bag. He was laying face down on the ground facing the other direction. Rocco credited their video replay room staffer Joey Casey with noticing that.

Gallo is bringing nothing at all helpful to the team right now. I'm not really a Chris Williams believer, but he can probably provide passable defense, and not strike out 50% of the time. I don't buy the "Kirilloff is hurt so they need Gallo" argument 1 bit. If they can't find someone who can provide more than him on their AAA roster right now this system is severely overrated as being middle of the pack. Joey Gallo has an argument as the worst position player in major league baseball right now. If you can't replace that you're in a terrible spot as an organization. And I freely admit I was ok with the Gallo risk they took. But when it doesn't work out you have to be able to move on and try something else.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

They think they are the smartest people in the room  , only us fans knows that they are not smarter than a fifth grader ....

Team continues to get worse under their control  ...

I'll always push back on this "they think they are the smartest people in the room" narrative. Every MLB exec thinks they're the smartest person in the room. You have to to reach those levels. And they're all incredibly smart people. I'd fire them if I were in charge, but it's not because they're not smart or think they're smarter than they are. They're incredibly smart. But they have flaws I don't think they can overcome.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Post seven years? The longer this FO has been in control, the worse it's gotten . They've been in a terrible division, and didn't make the playoffs the last two years. The only reason Julien is up is because polanco got hurt a second time. They have no third baseman and need a RHOF, and Prato sits in AAA. 

What evidence is there that their plans work, since the pandemic shortened year?

I guess I think we have a pretty strong team currently underperforming but good talent and a decent core.  I like Jeffers, Julien,  Correa and Buxton (both who need to perform better), Wallner is looking decent and Kiriloff was beginning to look like a core piece.  .  Pitching wise Ober, Ryan and Lopez is a really nice core to build around.  Lewis and Lee look like solid players if can stay healthy that should be good additions to the mlb team.  There is a slew of pitchers in A and A+ ball, plus what we picked this year.  I think you give the system another year and it is going to look loaded.  What I want to see is a couple pitchers start coming up that look like #1 pitchers.   Last year the team over performed and we got lucky signing Correa (although some will not say has actually hindered the team) and we went all in last year when we likely shouldn't have.  I still have a bit of a concern that we are not allowing pitchers to pitch how they have previously had success or different methods to have success.  Will Lopez succeed in Florida,  why couldn't we fix Cano?   But then we seem to get something out of Brock Stewart, Pagan is pitching better and as a whole the entire pitching staff has outperformed expectations.   I guess I just don't think the grass is greener and think there is still good potential this FO can build a continual quality organization.  I like that AAA has been doing well AA is so/so but A and A+ show more quality players coming up the pipe line and players and teams that know how to win.  

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

I would argue they have the perfect situation for him to make starts. Go 6-man, or have him pitch the days they skip someone. It's obvious to me the starting staff is wearing down at this point. Which is not uncommon, but what was their strength early isn't so much anymore. 

The thought that the Twins starting pitchers are starting to wear down 110 games into a season is a very sad statement. First this team has been hit with a lot of injuries and the starters can't hold up over a season when they are barely over 100 innings. That is a sad statement of the process of this FO.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI, Gallo didn't inform the coaches that the player stepped over the bag. He was laying face down on the ground facing the other direction. Rocco credited their video replay room staffer Joey Casey with noticing that.

Gallo is bringing nothing at all helpful to the team right now. I'm not really a Chris Williams believer, but he can probably provide passable defense, and not strike out 50% of the time. I don't buy the "Kirilloff is hurt so they need Gallo" argument 1 bit. If they can't find someone who can provide more than him on their AAA roster right now this system is severely overrated as being middle of the pack. Joey Gallo has an argument as the worst position player in major league baseball right now. If you can't replace that you're in a terrible spot as an organization. And I freely admit I was ok with the Gallo risk they took. But when it doesn't work out you have to be able to move on and try something else.

I am good with letting him go,  and also fine with Chris Williams being given the opportunity.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

The thought that the Twins starting pitchers are starting to wear down 110 games into a season is a very sad statement. First this team has been hit with a lot of injuries and the starters can't hold up over a season when they are barely over 100 innings. That is a sad statement of the process of this FO.

The Twins starters have pitched the most innings of any staff I believe,  if not right up there.   That some players that have pitched more innings than previous years are hitting a bit of a wall is not something new to the last century plus of baseball.  If we can give them a bit of breather I think could be good for the rest of the season and as an entire pitching staff have the #8 best ERA.  I don't think this is the dig you intended it to be.  If you want to go after the batters I think you have a stronger argument.  

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Honestly I think at times they have a lack of belief in some of the players who are not the quote stars.   As to the 40 man they are going to have a ton of spots available.  There is a chance they could lose a player or to but not likely a mass loss after the season. 

Floro, Headrick, Henriquez, Maeda, Moran, Ortega, Sands, Winder, SWR, Gray, Alcala, Stewart

Hitters

 Solano, Castro, Gallo, Taylor

That is a lot of fluff and individuals coming off the 40 man.  We can protect all or most of quality prospects that have popped up.  

Floro, Maeda, Moran, Ortega, Winder, Solano, Castro, Gallo and Taylor is 9 of the 26 man active roster.

And they are going to replace them with prospects on the 40 man and the active roster?

You are talking about 40% of rotation, 67% of the starting outfield and 50% of the relief core being replaced by prospects, lets be honest that isn't happening.

 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

Floro, Maeda, Moran, Ortega, Winder, Solano, Castro, Gallo and Taylor is 9 of the 26 man active roster.

And they are going to replace them with prospects on the 40 man and the active roster?

You are talking about 40% of rotation, 67% of the starting outfield and 50% of the relief core being replaced by prospects, lets be honest that isn't happening.

 

 

Likely pick up a couple free agents give some players from the minor leagues a chance,  and drop some players from the 40 man that haven't performed.  Also after the rule 5 sign a few more players and try to sneak a few more prospects back into the minors likely every other year.  Most likely lose a prospect or two,  let the masses fret and move on.  All I am showing is we have a lot of free agents that are on the end of deals and some prospects that can be removed from the 40 man to open spots for prospects on the 40 man that deserve it.  I don't know what they will do and who they will keep.  

[TwinsDr2021]

4 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

The Twins starters have pitched the most innings of any staff I believe,  if not right up there.   That some players that have pitched more innings than previous years are hitting a bit of a wall is not something new to the last century plus of baseball.  If we can give them a bit of breather I think could be good for the rest of the season and as an entire pitching staff have the #8 best ERA.  I don't think this is the dig you intended it to be.  If you want to go after the batters I think you have a stronger argument.  

Only Lopez (7th) is in the top 27 pitchers in innings pitched, Ryan 28th, Gray 40. so I don't really care about how the Twins starters have pitched the most innings as a team, because individually they are not. That we are talking about giving them a breather is just an example of the process not working.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Only Lopez (7th) is in the top 27 pitchers in innings pitched, Ryan 28th, Gray 40. so I don't really care about how the Twins starters have pitched the most innings as a team, because individually they are not. That we are talking about giving them a breather is just an example of the process not working.

So you don't think Ryan or Gray have performed well this year and/or that both look a little worn down and could benefit potentially from a skipped start or two??  Whose system exactly do you think we should be based off of,  the Rays  who have been struggling just as much as us down the stretch???   I am very confused as to what you are arguing or what pitchers you think we should have that would be pitching better? 

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

So you don't think Ryan or Gray have performed well this year and/or that both look a little worn down and could benefit potentially from a skipped start or two??  Whose system exactly do you think we should be based off of,  the Rays  who have been struggling just as much as us down the stretch???   I am very confused as to what you are arguing or what pitchers you think we should have that would be pitching better? 

Did I say they haven't pitched well? But since you asked Ryan besides his shutout hasn't pitched that great since May, is that a sign he is wearing down? Or is it a sign he isn't a sub 3 ERA guy and actually is the guy with a 3.96 career ERA? Or is it a sign of the Twins philosophy on pitching and training might need a tweak?

Gray's ERA has been creeping back to his career average as well. it is a sign that getting tired or is it just a regression to the pitcher he really is? Same with Ober.

The Rays? so you really mean Efflin and McClanahan because they only have 1 other starter with more than 50 innings and he is a 22 year old. So McClanahan is tiring? weird he didn't tire last year when he pitched 166 regular season innings, so I don't know when he has been struggling. Not sure of Efflin but he had been pitching way better than his career numbers and some regression should be expected.

You are confused because you don't want to hear the reality of the situation and want to compare team numbers instead of the individual numbers. they are grown mean and should be hitting their stride for a stretch run and you think they are tired and need a break? And if that is the actual case then it is more reason this FO has to go

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Did I say they haven't pitched well? But since you asked Ryan besides his shutout hasn't pitched that great since May, is that a sign he is wearing down? Or is it a sign he isn't a sub 3 ERA guy and actually is the guy with a 3.96 career ERA? Or is it a sign of the Twins philosophy on pitching and training might need a tweak?

Gray's ERA has been creeping back to his career average as well. it is a sign that getting tired or is it just a regression to the pitcher he really is? Same with Ober.

The Rays? so you really mean Efflin and McClanahan because they only have 1 other starter with more than 50 innings and he is a 22 year old. So McClanahan is tiring? weird he didn't tire last year when he pitched 166 regular season innings, so I don't know when he has been struggling. Not sure of Efflin but he had been pitching way better than his career numbers and some regression should be expected.

You are confused because you don't want to hear the reality of the situation and want to compare team numbers instead of the individual numbers. they are grown mean and should be hitting their stride for a stretch run and you think they are tired and need a break? And if that is the actual case then it is more reason this FO has to go

 

These are your arguments and claims:

The thought that the Twins starting pitchers are starting to wear down 110 games into a season is a very sad statement. First this team has been hit with a lot of injuries and the starters can't hold up over a season when they are barely over 100 innings. That is a sad statement of the process of this FO.

- I counter stating the Twins lead the major leagues in innings pitched by the starting rotation.  

You then state the following 

Only Lopez (7th) is in the top 27 pitchers in innings pitched, Ryan 28th, Gray 40. so I don't really care about how the Twins starters have pitched the most innings as a team, because individually they are not.

Ok so you acknowledge the Twins have 3 of the SP with the top 40 innings pitched.  You realize that is statistically significantly very high.  You have 1 in the top 10.   I guess that shows to me the front office strategy regarding pitching is working.   

Now players do get dead arm. To me its very clear that Ryan's fastball is no longer getting the ride it was earlier in the season.   From wearing out or ect.    I guess I don't take this as a negative on the Twins strategy, its just a young pitcher is wearing down some.  

I understand having frustration and you fully have that right.  I have a differing opinion thinking the strategies that the front office has been taking is to continue to put an average to above average team that compete in the big leagues while it tries to build the pitching pipeline and find a couple stars that can lead it into the next decade.  

I still think the Twins will outperform down the stretch, maybe I am overly optimistic.   I think its very clear Ryan needs a break.  I personally thing Sonny Gray is ok and will do well down the stretch and Maeda looks very good right now.   I think Lopez will be our best pitcher and lead us into the playoffs.   

I wish you well, just hope we see some better performance here in the next couple of months.