Ryan's Strong Start versus Astros Addressed his Main Weakness

[Adam Neisen]

Joe Ryan had a fantastic rookie year, but struggled versus playoff teams. His win over the Astros shows progress against quality lineups. 

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

In 2022, Joe Ryan emerged as a quality starting pitcher and became one of a few bright spots on an otherwise lackluster pitching staff. He cemented his fastball as one of the best in the league and led the Twins in innings pitched, all as a rookie. 

Despite all his success in his first full season, one aspect of his game felt missing: he struggled against playoff-caliber teams. 

Ryan vs. below .500 teams:
76 IP, 19 ER, 93 K, 2.25 ERA

Ryan vs. playoff teams:
46 IP, 30 ER, 34 K, 5.87 ERA

The difference is night and day. Against good teams, Ryan failed to pitch deeper into games and was hit much harder. This narrative lasted through the entire season and, for many, is the next step he'll need to take to be considered a top-of-the-rotation starter. 

In just the second start of his 2023 campaign, Ryan got the chance to face off against the defending world champions. In his one start against the Astros in the previous season, he struggled to get through the game, giving up four runs in only four innings of work. This time around, however, Ryan was much more successful. 

Through six innings, Ryan gave up three hits, four runs and had an incredible ten strikeouts. Despite his bad pitch to Yordan Alvarez, Ryan was dominant. Like most starts, he relied on his fastball, which was effective. It sat at 92 MPH but topped out at over 94 and generated 14 whiffs out of 46 pitches. Ryan has also been working on two new pitches, a sweeper and a splitter. Despite them still being a work in progresses, the pitches led to no substantial contact against one of the best-hitting teams in the league. 

He'll likely get another opportunity to prove himself versus a playoff-caliber team soon. His next turn in the rotation should coincide with the Twins visit to Yankee Stadium.

The 2023 Minnesota Twins have put an emphasis on the starting rotation, and Joe Ryan is a big piece of that. If he can pitch well and do it against playoff teams, Ryan will continue to look more and more like a front-end starter. This early game against a top-tier team is hopefully an early sign of the production we will see out of Joe Ryan this season. 

 

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[Doctor Gast]

I really like Ryan and I believe he'll develop into a very good SP. But his win against HOU was against a below .500 team.

[KirbyDome89]

4 earned runs in 6 innings is dominant now? 

 

[CoasterProductions]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I really like Ryan and I believe he'll develop into a very good SP. But his win against HOU was against a below .500 team.

That just won the World Series

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

4 earned runs in 6 innings is dominant now? 

 

My issue isn't that it wasn't a very good start. I thought it definitely was. 5 of the 6 innings were perfect, save for an error on a squib. Got through the meat 3 times, 3rd time being maybe the strongest, etc. But, yeah, I don't know if I would have gone with 'dominant'.

On the other hand, that was not an elite, top-end lineup without Altuve and Brantley. Good still, but not currently the standard to be used for 'great' or 'top' or 'best'.

[jkcarew]

Yeah...I don't think that Houston is what we can use as the standard for 'top' right now...not until the get Altuve and Brantley back, Bregman warmed up, etc. They're barely in the top half of the league in R/G...for context, the White Sox offense has been a good step better than Houston's so far.

But, I'm not sure I care as long as Ryan keeps doing what he's doing. Maybe he'll take that next step, maybe he won't. Signs are encouraging.

In the meantime, I have no problem with Ryan's quality as a #3, regardless of the terms we use to describe him. Barring injury and regression, it seems like a decent matchup against playoff-level teams' #3s.

[Melissa]

It was very encouraging to see the quotes from Ryan after his start against the Astros as to how he followed Vázquez’s lead with regard to pitch mix. 

[Jocko87]

I agree that is was encouraging but also agree that we shouldn't exactly be crowning him anytime soon.  That start gets you bounced from the playoffs.  Going from cruising to down 4-0 on the ninth pitch of the third inning blows up a postseason.

We should look at several positives but the 3rd inning needs to be a huge learning experience.  It wasn't just a bad pitch, it was the going off the rails quickly that lead to the bad pitch as well. Then a non-competitive middle middle fastball to a top 5ish hitter in baseball with the bases loaded is a problem.  I knew it was gone halfway to the plate.  For those saying it barely got out, I'm saying it might have gone through the wall if it hit.  He may have gotten lucky and got a bullet to a glove too.  This way the lesson may stick. 

I may give a little leeway in April if they were trying something or letting him get himself out but at least make the pitch competitive. 

[Trov]

19 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

4 earned runs in 6 innings is dominant now? 

 

The writer addressed the 1 inning.  All other innings were dominate. It was the one inning where he gave up a solid single, then a weak grounder that found a hole, a walk, then a very bad pitch for the GS.  Outside of that he shut them down. The GS was solid hit, but only went out by a foot, could have been a long 2 run single.  Outside of that inning he gave up no hits or walks.  So he was dominate for 5 out of his 6 innings.  Yes, that inning counts.  He got the win and hopefully he will not give up meat ball next time in that situation. 

[Blyleven2011]

It's a marathon season  and Ryan will get plenty of starts for the season , I'm not reading anything into this start other than he did his job ...

At the start of a season they say the pitcher has the advantage over the hitter as the hitters are still adjusting their timing   ...

Lots of slow starts in lineups , low BA , OPS and failing to score with runners in scoring position  ...

The starting pitchers have kept us in the small sample size of the season  , the rotation is much better than last year and the year before that and the year before that season  , etc. , etc . , etc .  ...

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

The writer addressed the 1 inning.  All other innings were dominate. It was the one inning where he gave up a solid single, then a weak grounder that found a hole, a walk, then a very bad pitch for the GS.  Outside of that he shut them down. The GS was solid hit, but only went out by a foot, could have been a long 2 run single.  Outside of that inning he gave up no hits or walks.  So he was dominate for 5 out of his 6 innings.  Yes, that inning counts.  He got the win and hopefully he will not give up meat ball next time in that situation. 

If you're going to say that Ryan has addressed his woes against better teams, maybe don't stake that case on a game in which he posted an ERA eerily similar to the aforementioned "struggle," portion of last season. I'll take 6 innings over 4 though. 

Parsing single events is a sword that cuts both ways. It's also not a road worth traveling.