Twins vs Royals (3/30-4/2): Series Preview

[Steven Trefz]

The Twins kick off their 2023 season at Kauffman Stadium, to take on the Royals in a Central Division clash. Both teams look to improve upon last season’s results, with a mixture of young talent and veteran presence. Spring training and the World Baseball Classic have come and gone, opening day rosters are set, and its time to play ball! Who is set up well to start the season off on the right foot in KC?

Image courtesy of Lopez (William Parmeter), Greinke (Jay Biggerstaff, USA Today)

In 2022, the Twins went 12-7 against the Royals, and finished 13 games ahead of them in the standings. At Kauffman Stadium, however, the Twins went just 4-5. 

In 2021, the Twins and Royals split the ten games that they played in Missouri. The Royals won the season series 10 games to nine. The Royals finished one game ahead of the last-place Twins.

The Royals have traditionally played the Twins tough whether they are evenly matched or one team has a significantly better record. Most games between these two squads are close, so it's likely that the bullpens will play a huge role in these games. That shouldn't be a surprise on Opening Weekend since the starting pitchers are still building up their workloads. 

Fun Fact: In 2022, the Twins were 15-13 in day games, but only played two day games on the road and lost them both. This season starts with four of their first six games during the daytime and on the road, including all three games in the Royals series. 

Weather Factor: With temperatures in the mid-50s to low-70s for this opening series, weather shouldn’t play too much of a factor, but humid summer carry on fly balls won’t be an issue.

So let's take a look at the Pitching Probables for this first series of the season. 

Game 1 - Thursday, March 30, 2023 – 3:10pm CDT – Right-handers Pablo Lopez (Twins) and Zack Greinke (Royals) go head-to-head to kick off the 2023 MLB campaign. The newest addition to the Twins’ rotation seeks to step into the ace role as time-tested Greinke seeks to hold the Twins’ offense at bay.

Of the Royals' lineup, only Hunter Dozier has faced Lopez before, and he went 1-for-3 off of him. The Twins starters, however, have plenty of history with Greinke, with Kyle Farmer, Christian Vazquez & Trevor Larnach all enjoying success with less than five plate appearances each. Nick Gordon wins the "I love Greinke" award with a 7-for-11, 1.727 OPS history against him. Who might want to sit on opening day (but definitely isn't)? Joey Gallo, who is 0-for-17 against the Royals righty with one walk.

Game 2 - Saturday, April 1, 2023 – 3:10pm CDT – Right-handers Sonny Gray (Twins) and Jordan Lyles (Royals) take the hill in Game 2 after the opening weekend scheduled weather flex day. Cooler temps should lead to a close game, and it will be interesting to see if the members of the Twins’ bench who didn’t get at-bats in the opener will be called upon to shake off the nerves against the journeyman Lyles.

Gray has a decent history against the Royals' current squad, with Bobby Witt Jr. being the only starter with an OPS over .600 against him. Gallo has fared much better against Lyles over time, with a 1.025 OPS in 10 plate appearances. Vazquez, Max Kepler, and Gordon check in with an OPS over 1.000, and should be in the lineup.

Game 3 - Sunday, April 2, 2023 – 1:10pm CDT – Stop me if you heard this one, but right-handers Joe Ryan (Twins) and Brad Keller (Royals) seek to secure a series victory or sweep in the third and final game. Ryan looks to improve upon his road woes from an otherwise successful 2022 rookie campaign, while Keller attempts to bounce back from a 6-14 record in 2022. Ryan has posted a .113 batting average against Royals hitters, with only Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey doing damage in less than ten plate appearances. Kepler is the only healthy Twin to do much consistent damage against Keller, with a 1.237 OPS. It should be noted that Gallo has four walks in five plate appearances against the Royals righty.

With a brutal April schedule, the Twins need to come out of the gates with a strong showing in Kansas City. A sweep isn't out of the question to start the season, but the team's poor track record at Kauffman over the past few seasons warns that the Royals won't go down without a fight. They are young and hungry, have a couple of flamethrowers at the back-end of their bullpen, and ready to stop being an afterthought in the AL Central.

What's your prediction for this series? Get out the brooms, or something in between? Who do you think will start off on fire for the Twins' bats? Who will provide the Twins the best opening series start?

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Steve Trefz - On a mission to go to a Twins series in every stadium over 2023-24. The journey starts 3/30!

Follow me on Twitter: @TwinsTrefz

Statistical help from StatHead.com

 

 

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[Doctor Gast]

I predict a sweep, I like the match ups. IMO the Twins know the need to come out of the gate strong. That motivation & talent should do it.

[jmlease1]

twins are the better team, but it's baseball and anything can happen. Would be great to get off to a good start by whipping up on KC out the gate. Frankly, I'm just happy we're starting on the road since we might have snow flying this week in Mpls!

[Steven Trefz]

Not wearing a coat in the Witt jr bobble head line…..sooooo good

[Parfigliano]

I will be missing the game because I have to go to Albuquerque today.  Couldnt be yesterday or tomorrow.  Today.  Sucks.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

Happy Opening Day!  Let's go Twins!  

[mikelink45]

So glad to see Ryan number 3 in the order.  Just wish Ober was in the rotation too. 

[Melissa]

Thanks, Steven, for this informative post! Hard to know what to make of all the hitters with few appearances against the pitchers (and vice-versa), but your emphasis on how tough the Royals can be at home on the Twins is well taken.

[Steven Trefz]

On 4/1/2023 at 6:51 AM, Melissa said:

Thanks, Steven, for this informative post! Hard to know what to make of all the hitters with few appearances against the pitchers (and vice-versa), but your emphasis on how tough the Royals can be at home on the Twins is well taken.

It does seem like the first two games have been overly stressful!  Here's to hoping someone else joins Buxton and breaks out today.

[Melissa]

10 hours ago, Steven Trefz said:

It does seem like the first two games have been overly stressful!  Here's to hoping someone else joins Buxton and breaks out today.

Done! Fun game, though Pagán raised my blood pressure.