Who woulda thunk it?

[IdahoPilgrim]

As we enter the 6th week of the season, we find ourselves roughly upside down of what many expected:

 

The rotation hasn't sucked. Indeed, the combination of Worley, Pelfrey & Correia has had 8 quality starts out of 18, and the rotation as a whole has an ERA under 5.00.

 

The hitters have yet to get started, with only Ramirez, Escobar & Carroll above .300 and a team average of .240 and team OPS of .683

 

Who woulda thunk it?

[ThePuck]

23rd in rotation ERA, 29th in BAA, 27th in WHIP, last in Ks, and one team has less quality starts.

 

If that's not sucking, then my dictionary needs a re-write :-)

[Mike Sixel]

The starters are 10th in ERA, I'd have predicted more like 13th.....

 

The hitting is second to last in runs scored, I'd have predicted more like 10th....part of that is that only 1 other team has played as few games as they have. The only two hitters doing worse than I expected, though, are Mauer and Hicks. Everyone else is about what you'd expect, if your expectations were based on careers, and not peaks.

 

The surprise to me is the W-L record. They are about 2-3 games ahead of pace, imo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Twins are 11th out of 15 in the AL for runs per game. 2nd to last in the AL in HR (and 3 to last in MLB), last in extra base hit percentage.

 

On the pitching side of the ledger, we are 2nd to last in the AL in quality start percentage, 2nd to last in IP per start, and 2nd to last in strikeout percentage. Outside of Correia, the starting staff has been VERY poor overall. We're also 3rd in lowest HR allowed percentage, so maybe there has been some HR suppression at Twins games this year?

[ericchri]

I've come to this conclusion about the Twins this season: I pretty much have no idea what's going to happen.

 

That's an improvement after the last couple years when I could mostly count on losing. Nice to be in the vicinity of .500 at this point of the season, and I'll enjoy it for as long as it lasts (which could very well be the whole season).

[TheLeviathan]

So far this road trip has been a good example of what can happen to teams that aren't much good at anything in particular. Hopefully they turn it around but being bad at everything but the bullpen is a good way to find the bottom of the standings.

 

also, plenty of us were warning that this offense wasn't as great as the preseason hype.

[Brock Beauchamp]

also, plenty of us were warning that this offense wasn't as great as the preseason hype.

 

I'm still not terribly concerned with the offense. The guys are healthy, which is what's most important. They've played a lot of games in absolutely awful weather.

 

I'll start worrying about it if the weather warms and they continue to be as bad as they are now.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I'm not saying the rotation has been good - no doubt we are on the bottom half of all statistical categories. But we all knew that was going to be the case this year anyway, and it is nowhere near as bad as many pundits were predicting in February, and nowhere near as bad as last year.

 

I'm going to enjoy it while it lasts, and if that means I wear rose-colored glasses, then I'm ok with that. Without optimists you wouldn't have pessimists.

[gunnarthor]

In fairness, TF and other parks affect era/runs scored etc. By ERA+, our pitchers are combing for a 103 ERA+, which is 8th and just above league avg. Our hitters are putting up a 89 OPS+ and third worst in the AL (ahead of Tor and the White Sox). It's too early to over react. The offense will get better but our pitching will probably go south.

[Aaron Cross]

I wouldn't give Worley too many more starts to figure it out. Not with Gibson and Deduno getting close. What's going on with DeVries?

[ashbury]

They've played a lot of games in absolutely awful weather.

 

The weather's also been used to explain bad pitching performances like Pelfrey's. I'd be curious if anyone's done a study that tries to either separate myth from fact, or can identify what kinds of player are helped more by heat, cold, drizzle, meteor showers, and Godzilla sightings.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

The only thing that I find surprising is the W-L. The Twins have an elite bullpen, mediocre offense, and poor rotation. Yet, they are still sitting around .500. It was predictable that the rotation would improve a little because of the new faces and health. It was also predictable that the offense would get much worse with Denard Span's departure and Jamey Carroll's lessened role. We also lost an overperforming Revere. The Twins would be scoring more runs if the trio of Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau, and Chris Parmelee contributes.

[snepp]

Elite bullpen?

 

They have a shiny ERA yes, but it's nowhere near sustainable given their peripherals. Unless something changes, they're going to end up somewhere in the middle of the pack.

[IdahoPilgrim]

The W-L record isn't that surprising, given the run differential (111-117).

 

If we've been able to do that with all our current problems, think what is possible if the bats start producing like many hoped.

[Riverbrian]

So... the Twins offense is ranked 18th out of 15 teams... The Starting Pitching is 17th out of 15 teams.

 

Is that what we are trying to win?

 

We could be first in those categories and still be around .500

 

Where you statistically rank matters very little in each individual game.

 

Day by Day... Day by Day.

[ashbury]

and Jamey Carroll's lessened role.

 

The Twins are near-last in the league in offense because (in part large enough to mention) Jamey Carroll isn't getting enough plate appearances? Hold on, gotta check the team outputs of this future HOFer in the past several seasons... uh, no, don't quite see it.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

The Twins are near-last in the league in offense because (in part large enough to mention) Jamey Carroll isn't getting enough plate appearances? Hold on, gotta check the team outputs of this future HOFer in the past several seasons... uh, no, don't quite see it.

 

Playing time in general. Jamey Carroll was a 3.5 WAR player last year. If you want to argue that Florimon and Dozier can eclipse that, be my guest. It's not like Jamey will produce that this year, but that dropoff of solid production will hurt the Twins this year.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Elite bullpen?

 

They have a shiny ERA yes, but it's nowhere near sustainable given their peripherals. Unless something changes, they're going to end up somewhere in the middle of the pack.

 

I was never talking about the Twins future. Not sure where "sustainable" even comes into the conversation when talking about the win loss record they have put up. Up till this point, the Twins have had an elite bullpen. Perhaps I should have said "had" rather than "have". So, could be on me.

[snepp]

I guess I don't equate being fortunate to being elite. Calling them elite suggests sustainability moving forward.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I guess I don't equate being fortunate to being elite. Calling them elite suggests sustainability moving forward.

 

The results have been elite. Prior to this Red Sox game.

[ashbury]

Playing time in general. Jamey Carroll was a 3.5 WAR player last year. If you want to argue that Florimon and Dozier can eclipse that, be my guest. It's not like Jamey will produce that this year, but that dropoff of solid production will hurt the Twins this year.

 

We're talking about offense, and Jamey's WAR on b-r.com is split about evenly between offense and defense. Honestly it seems strange to me that a .660 OPS from an infielder would translate into as many as 21 runs above replacement, but so be it. But you were asserting that "predictable that the offense would get much worse with ... Jamey Carroll's lessened role", and now you're saying that putting him back in there wouldn't help, so I'm not sure what point you were really trying to make about him.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

We're talking about offense, and Jamey's WAR on b-r.com is split about evenly between offense and defense. Honestly it seems strange to me that a .660 OPS from an infielder would translate into as many as 21 runs above replacement, but so be it. But you were asserting that "predictable that the offense would get much worse with ... Jamey Carroll's lessened role", and now you're saying that putting him back in there wouldn't help, so I'm not sure what point you were really trying to make about him.

 

We were talking about predictions. The OP posting who would've thunk that we'd be good this year based on last year's results. Last year Jamey Carroll was extremely productive and it was predictable that he wouldn't be this season based on a lessoned role. I'm saying not having 2012 Carroll on the 2013 team hurts the Twins. In the same way, we lost 2012 Denard Span. Also, the Twins are back to .500. Who would've thunk the offense would explode like this?

[Aaron Cross]

As we enter the 6th week of the season, we find ourselves roughly upside down of what many expected:

 

The rotation hasn't sucked. Indeed, the combination of Worley, Pelfrey & Correia has had 8 quality starts out of 18, and the rotation as a whole has an ERA under 5.00.

 

The hitters have yet to get started, with only Ramirez, Escobar & Carroll above .300 and a team average of .240 and team OPS of .683

 

Who woulda thunk it?

 

Definitely been a pleasant surprise to start the season, considering the anyone not named Diamond or Correia has been awful. Cant wait to see Gibson up here. It's got to be close.

[bird]

My hope, coming into the season, was modest: give me a team that's in most of the games it plays, and be somewhere in the rough vicinity of a .500 club. Also, give me a couple glimpses of the future. So far so good.

[IdahoPilgrim]

My hope, coming into the season, was modest: give me a team that's in most of the games it plays, and be somewhere in the rough vicinity of a .500 club. Also, give me a couple glimpses of the future. So far so good.

 

This was my hope as well - just give me something decent to watch.