Article: International Signing Preview

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1585-International-Signing-Preview

[Larsbars08]

Is there any word on where last years big international free agent signing, Amaurys Minier, will be playing. I assume he's in extended spring training, but will he start in the DSL or GCL?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Like Sano, Minier will probably start the year in the DSL, with a chance to make a late-season appearance in the GCL.

[Willihammer]

JN, since 2013 is probably going to be the last year without a draft, might it be smarter for the Twins to leverage their big bonus pool and just spam a bunch of international signees? Maybe even, be the buyers in a bonus-pool trade scenario?

[kab21]

My hope is that they spend most of it but I doubt the Twins sign more than one guy in the 1-2M range.

[Twins Twerp]

Awesome article. Nice to know some names before we get to that July signing day. I think a draft would add some extra excitement to the process.

[Mike Sixel]

They have plenty of cash, I hope they use it.

[Thrylos]

Like Sano, Minier will probably start the year in the DSL, with a chance to make a late-season appearance in the GCL.

 

IIRC Sano played only a few games in DSL in 2010 and spent most of the season in GCL. Given that the DSL season start before the GCL, I am not sure for how many games Sano was playing in DSL after the GCL season started . Also, IIRC, he made the trip and league change with Jorge Polanco (who was signed that year), so there might have been practical issues like visas to delay the start in GCL.

 

Bottom line is that if Minier is in FL now, he likely will start in GCL. If not, likely in DSL.

[nicksaviking]

While the Twins could trade away some International allowence to leverage a better deal from a prospective mid season trade, they also could leverage a better deal the traditional way. Eat some salary of the vet being traded. This team needs to stop looking for new ways to not spend money.

[cmb0252]

Spend it all or trade it all, i dont care. Just don't leave any money on the table. This is one more asset the Twins get and need to be smart with it. Lots of teams are going to be looking for extra money.

[beckmt]

Twins need to spend this money and maybe more, if the draft starts next year, then we need to buy players for the future. It never hurts to have a great farm system

[kab21]

I find the whole idea of a draft really weird. The top 25 or so guys are all well known and scouted by almost every team but after that it seems like the world is too big of a place to adequately cover. Even getting through the 1st rd could result in difficult picks. Would a team use a top ten pick on Luis Gohara even if they didn't have any scouts in Brazil that had seen him play? To what lengths will teams hide players so they don't show up on other team's radars.

 

I also find this whole slotting thing strange. So basically the Twins can splurge on one really big FA and then only 400ish K on their #2 guy. These are of course recommendations since it's not a hard slotting but it does give the Twins a really good chance at landing on of the top prospects. Half of the teams don't even have an overall bonus pool that matches the Twins 2.25M slot which they can exceed since it is only a recommendation.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

One thing I neglected to mention, the pools in this "free agency" and the pools in the draft work the same, they aren't a "hard" slot. Meaning the Twins could split up their pool in whatever way they would like.

 

(I posted this after reading the first of kab21's two paragraph's. After reading the second.. yes, he's exactly right. The Twins will definitely be in the mix for whoever they think is the most talented. Something not always possible before.)

[TRex]

I think it will really be interesting how clubs go about 'trading' the International signing bonus money... and don't forget that the 'competitive balance' draft picks can also be traded.

 

As one example, would the Marlins (who are always active in the international market) be willing to trade the 37th pick of the draft (and the ~$1,400,000 slot) for $1.4 million on the international market? Sounds like a nice way for the pitching-starved Twins to take a chance on a polished college pitcher (ala Scott Baker).

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Interesting thought, but it can't happen. International money can only be traded once free agency begins (July 2). In regards to that 37th pick, I believe they acquired it in a trade, and those picks can only be traded once.

 

It may be possible to hold on to some of the int'l pool until next April, when they could maybe trade it for a comp. balance pick (only tradable during the season).

 

I like where your head's at though.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

JN, since 2013 is probably going to be the last year without a draft, might it be smarter for the Twins to leverage their big bonus pool and just spam a bunch of international signees? Maybe even, be the buyers in a bonus-pool trade scenario?

 

Yeah, that mindset makes sense, though I doubt the Twins add to this pool when they'll already be one of the bigger spenders in the draft. Having such a high pick last year (plus the rest of their picks plus International guys) cost the Twins almost $14 million. (They're not sniffing $10 million most years.) All of that spending might be one of the reasons that the team's payroll was reduced this season.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

IIRC Sano played only a few games in DSL in 2010 and spent most of the season in GCL. Given that the DSL season start before the GCL, I am not sure for how many games Sano was playing in DSL after the GCL season started . Also, IIRC, he made the trip and league change with Jorge Polanco (who was signed that year), so there might have been practical issues like visas to delay the start in GCL.

 

Bottom line is that if Minier is in FL now, he likely will start in GCL. If not, likely in DSL.

 

Sano and Polanco were moved up on July 4. Sano played 20 games before moving to the GCL (who's season starts about a week after the draft) and played 41 there. The Twins won't be any more aggressive with Minier. Maybe 50/50 between the two leagues.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly given the Twins record, they should have been one of the top spenders in FA and landed whatever they liked. I'm a bit disappointed they did not. That said, I hope they either spend their allotment, or trade it for a decent prospect. I have no issue with tem adding part of their bonus pool to another team to get a higher ceiling prospect assuming of course they aren't terribly high on what they'd be signing.

[drjim]

Honestly given the Twins record, they should have been one of the top spenders in FA and landed whatever they liked. I'm a bit disappointed they did not. That said, I hope they either spend their allotment, or trade it for a decent prospect. I have no issue with tem adding part of their bonus pool to another team to get a higher ceiling prospect assuming of course they aren't terribly high on what they'd be signing.

 

What are you talking about? They have consistently been at least a top ten spender and they landed one of the highest profile prospects of the past decade in Sano. Just because they didn't throw around ridiculous money doesn't mean they failed to target and sign prospects that they liked. I would also note that since 2009 (when I started tracking) they have always signed at least one (and usually two or three) of the top prospects listed by BA and they have been among the best in Australia and the emerging markets in Europe.

[kab21]

diehard is still believes the Twins are in the pre-Sano (pre-Target Field) mindset. Something changed that year and although I don't recall the Twins spending 1M+ (on one prospect) for a couple of years they were significantly more active internationally after that.

[drjim]

diehard is still believes the Twins are in the pre-Sano (pre-Target Field) mindset. Something changed that year and although I don't recall the Twins spending 1M+ (on one prospect) for a couple of years they were significantly more active internationally after that.

 

I think what changed was that Target Field along with increased revenues was on the horizon resulting in a subsequent increase in all budgets. The franchise finally had the ability to compete for the top prospects that they wanted. In the same time frame also they started going over slot a little bit more in the draft. These are not coincidences.

[kab21]

There's that but you saw bigger shifts from several small/mid markets teams (Pirates and Royals notably) at the same time. I think it just became evident that teams needed to be involved internationally to stay competitive. I'm just glad that the Twins are now involved internationally since they basically ignored it until a couple of years ago.

[johnnydakota]

Bill Smith returned the twins to the international market....

[Pitz]

Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus saw Micker Zapata at a showcase in January. The link to his notes on the event is here. Says he was the best player at the showcase with 7+ power.

[diehardtwinsfan]

diehard is still believes the Twins are in the pre-Sano (pre-Target Field) mindset. Something changed that year and although I don't recall the Twins spending 1M+ (on one prospect) for a couple of years they were significantly more active internationally after that.

 

I'm not sure if they are in Metrodome mindset or not. What I do think is that given that the international free spending was ending and the fact that the Twins were awful, they should have spent as much money as possible there.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I should also note that Garrioch had a really good article over at minorleagueball regarding an international draft. I'm really curious how this will play out. I do think that they need to do something to ensure that the bad teams get the best players to improve competitive balance, but short of MLB taking over all the academies, I'm not sure how it will be done.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I should also note that Garrioch had a really good article over at minorleagueball regarding an international draft. I'm really curious how this will play out. I do think that they need to do something to ensure that the bad teams get the best players to improve competitive balance, but short of MLB taking over all the academies, I'm not sure how it will be done.

 

I linked his story in the article. Its a good read.

[maxisagod]

but short of MLB taking over all the academies, I'm not sure how it will be done.

Just because a player goes to a specific team's academy doesn't mean he has to sign with that team. That player can do work outs at other academies and still can have their agents reach out to other teams. The Twins had this guy named Miguel Cabrera, who went to their Venezuelan academy. It was one of the closest academies located near where Miguel was from. In the end the Twins got outbid. The Twins had bid high and the Marlins had bid higher.

 

No system will ever be completely fair. It will either favor the teams who have the best scouts or the most cash to spend. The top money guys are the ones everyone has heard of, but you do need a strong presence in a region to find the diamonds in the rough.

[kab21]

I should also note that Garrioch had a really good article over at minorleagueball regarding an international draft. I'm really curious how this will play out. I do think that they need to do something to ensure that the bad teams get the best players to improve competitive balance, but short of MLB taking over all the academies, I'm not sure how it will be done.

 

I think the bonus pools does that pretty well. I would also be concerned about MLB taking over the academies and not expanding the network. right now if teams see an opportunity in a new place (like Brazil) they spend the big bucks to be there. that might not happen with MLB running the show. There was also some speculation that Puerto Rico participating in the MLB draft led to a nationwide decline of baseball. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/sports/baseball/puerto-rico-traces-decline-in-prospects-to-inclusion-in-the-baseball-draft.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

[Thrylos]

Honestly given the Twins record, they should have been one of the top spenders in FA and landed whatever they liked. I'm a bit disappointed they did not. That said, I hope they either spend their allotment, or trade it for a decent prospect. I have no issue with tem adding part of their bonus pool to another team to get a higher ceiling prospect assuming of course they aren't terribly high on what they'd be signing.

 

There is something really simple against that logic:

You need to have the right prospects to spend $$. And really after Sano, if you exclude the Cubans, there have not been many of those kind of prospects.

 

Spending $ just to spend does not make any sense (even though Ryan does it with veteran FAs.) If you are getting the equivalent of a 10th-round (rule 4) draft pick (or even an equivalent prospect if you trade the international slot) in a 16 year old AFA whom you have to pay $750K to sign, you better not spend the $ that way. If there is value, spend (and overspend,) if not, it is a waste.