Reviewing investments at the one third mark.

[mikelink45]

Let's start with the Twins - two big investments:

In 54 games Byron Buxton has 1.4 WAR, and a line of 221/296/517 - OPS+136.  He has played in 38 and started 37 games 70.3%,  He has played 28 games at CF 51.8%.  12 HRs

Carlos Corea 1 WAR 279/344/402 122 OPS+ 35 games and 34 starts - 64.8% of games.  

Now are they earning their big salaries (of course not, but I am not talking reality, I mean in baseball are they doing what is expected)?

Other big contracts by comparison:

Mookie Betts - 3.2 WAR, 308/391/607 174OPS+ 16 HRs

Trevor Story - 1.5 WAR, 230/325/448 116OPS+

Francisco Lindor - 1..6 WAR, 259/339/433 121 OPS+

Semien - 0.3 WAR, 190/253/275 OPS 55+

Corey Seagar - 1.3 WAR, 241/307/441 OPS+ 116+

Who is a value and who isn't.  We talked about getting Semien (maybe we were lucky losers).

By the way, we had Kiner-Falefa for a day - not a big contract but his line is: 0.9 WAR, 272/320/321 OPS+ 88

Bundy and Archer do not qualify as high end pitchers - but there were some out there:

Scherzer would not sign here, but he is now injured who would have made a difference?

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Let's start with the Twins - two big investments:

In 54 games Byron Buxton has 1.4 WAR, and a line of 221/296/517 - OPS+136.  He has played in 38 and started 37 games 70.3%,  He has played 28 games at CF 51.8%.  12 HRs

Carlos Corea 1 WAR 279/344/402 122 OPS+ 35 games and 34 starts - 64.8% of games.  

Now are they earning their big salaries (of course not, but I am not talking reality, I mean in baseball are they doing what is expected)?

Buxton doesn't have a big contract. He's making $9m this season. His very middling contract starts next season.

[mikelink45]

11 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Buxton doesn't have a big contract. He's making $9m this season. His very middling contract starts next season.

That is a lot of money in my life - but it does not change the fact that he is the second highest paid Twin.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

13 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

That is a lot of money in my life - but it does not change the fact that he is the second highest paid Twin.

That says more about the Twins than Buxton’s contract relative to the league.

[bunsen82]

Buxton contract only starts to get expensive if he starts hitting his bonuses.  Buxton has continued to show he is one of the most talented twins and one of the most brittle players again in the Twins entire history. 
 

Correa is doing exactly what we wanted other than he needs to be on the field a bit more. His defense is elite and his bat had been heating up.  When your comparing players who have played less games due injury/Covid things can get a bit wonky on total stats. 
 

Bundy and Archer are meh.  But Sonny Gray is looking like an excellent starting pitcher that we acquired in the trade with the Reds.  Urshela and Sanchez have actually been positive additions. 

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Buxton contract only starts to get expensive if he starts hitting his bonuses.  Buxton has continued to show he is one of the most talented twins and one of the most brittle players again in the Twins entire history. 
 

Correa is doing exactly what we wanted other than he needs to be on the field a bit more. His defense is elite and his bat had been heating up.  When your comparing players who have played less games due injury/Covid things can get a bit wonky on total stats. 
 

Bundy and Archer are meh.  But Sonny Gray is looking like an excellent starting pitcher that we acquired in the trade with the Reds.  Urshela and Sanchez have actually been positive additions. 

I can't give Bundy even meh, he gets a dropping fast. Just like he did last year, started out fine then went all to crap, alot like Shoemaker. Archer for me gets an incomplete. Until he can either last at least 5 or they let him pitch a little longer or perhaps move him into the pen. I just don't think he's been given enough rope to either hang himself, or enough slack to untie himself yet.

[Trov]

For pitching it looks like the best FA signing right now is who we face today, Kevin Gausman.  We could have went after him, 22 mil a year for 5 years.  He is having a career year, and may have some regression as season goes on.  The real question is what he brings over the next 4 years.  His k/9 is on career norm, but his walks are way down compared to career norms.  His career walks per 9 have been 2.6, right now he is .9 this season.  Will he get back to his norm?  

Rondon looked like he was a great signing in April for SF, then May he regressed a ton, first start in June was good, not great, 5 innings 2 runs 1 earned.  Beyond those 2 the top FA pitchers we could have went after most likely have been not performing to contracts or career expectations.  

Robbie Ray and Eduardo Rodriguez have both been terrible this year, compared to what expectations and contracts they signed.  I said all off-season, signing starting pitchers to long term deals is one of the biggest gambles you can make.  All the guys mentioned may bounce back, or they may keep pitching poorly but have to get sent out there for how much money they will earn over the next several seasons.  Gausman may pitch above his career averages as he ages, or he may drop off too.  Predicating a pitcher one year to next is one of the hardest thing a GM can do. 

[Guest]

"...signing starting pitchers to long term deals is one of the biggest gambles you can make."

Spot on.  High risk/uncertain reward.