Eddie gets a deal. Good for him.

[adorduan]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33518462/atlanta-braves-re-sign-nlcs-mvp-eddie-rosario-2-year-18-million-deal

Seems fair to me.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the Braves end up regretting that contract but I'm also glad to see Eddie get a fat paycheck.

[adorduan]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think the Braves end up regretting that contract but I'm also glad to see Eddie get a fat paycheck.

Hmm, Eddies been worth at least 1 WAR for his whole career, so 9M doesn't seem like an overplay.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, adorduan said:

Hmm, Eddies been worth at least 1 WAR for his whole career, so 9M doesn't seem like an overplay.

He was below replacement level with Cleveland. I’m skeptical of his performance going forward. 

[adorduan]

36 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

He was below replacement level with Cleveland. I’m skeptical of his performance going forward. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/31944/eddie-rosario

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 minutes ago, adorduan said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/31944/eddie-rosario

Ah, okay. I looked it up a few months ago and I could have sworn he was under replacement level in Cleveland. Oh well, definitely wrong about that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

He was below replacement level with Cleveland. I’m skeptical of his performance going forward. 

Do you mean below average? B-Ref had him worth 0.6 WAR in Cleveland; Fangraphs, 0.3.

Atlanta may not get much surplus value from this deal, but I don’t know that it is big enough, or Rosario risky enough, that they will regret it.

[Dman]

He deserves that money for carrying the Braves on his back to the World Series.  I think he was crazy good in that Dodgers series and that was where I thought Atlanta would lose for sure.  Eddie came up big.  I would say this is getting paid after the fact but good for him.  He deserves it.  Always loved his passion and his bat when hot.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, adorduan said:

Hmm, Eddies been worth at least 1 WAR for his whole career, so 9M doesn't seem like an overplay.

$9M is definitely an overpay for 1 WAR, unless free agency is literally the only place you can obtain a 1 WAR LF/DH.  I'm not familiar with the Braves' MiLB outfield depth, so perhaps that is the case.  That said, I doubt it--218 hitters accumulated at least 1 WAR last year, with another 70 between 0.5 WAR and 1 WAR--so it should be pretty easy to find that for $1.5M or less across a player or two.  Heck, Kyle Garlick put up 0.2 WAR in only 107 PAs last year--get that level of production, and that's right around 1 WAR over 162 games; even if he only produces at half that rate, the Braves still save $7M+ a year and only lose 0.5 WAR

[adorduan]

4 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

$9M is definitely an overpay for 1 WAR, unless free agency is literally the only place you can obtain a 1 WAR LF/DH.  I'm not familiar with the Braves' MiLB outfield depth, so perhaps that is the case.  That said, I doubt it--218 hitters accumulated at least 1 WAR last year, with another 70 between 0.5 WAR and 1 WAR--so it should be pretty easy to find that for $1.5M or less across a player or two.  Heck, Kyle Garlick put up 0.2 WAR in only 107 PAs last year--get that level of production, and that's right around 1 WAR over 162 games; even if he only produces at half that rate, the Braves still save $7M+ a year and only lose 0.5 WAR

Almost everyone on this forum quotes 8M for 1 WAR when they argue what a player has given the team.

[Cap'n Piranha]

5 hours ago, adorduan said:

Almost everyone on this forum quotes 8M for 1 WAR when they argue what a player has given the team.

That's what WAR is worth on the FA market, which is far and away the most expensive place to buy WAR.  Collectively, MLB records about 1,000 WAR a season--given that the total salary for all MLB players is about $4B, that means one WAR is actually worth $4M, on average.

[Brock Beauchamp]

19 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

That's what WAR is worth on the FA market, which is far and away the most expensive place to buy WAR.  Collectively, MLB records about 1,000 WAR a season--given that the total salary for all MLB players is about $4B, that means one WAR is actually worth $4M, on average.

It's a bit off topic but I'll be curious to see how much that $4m number moves up in 2022 with the increased minimum and $50m arb pool.

[Cap'n Piranha]

32 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's a bit off topic but I'll be curious to see how much that $4m number moves up in 2022 with the increased minimum and $50m arb pool.

Yeah, this will be very interesting indeed.  I personally don't think the needle moves too much, as I imagine total payroll will move to something like $4.1B to $4.2B, so average WAR will go up a bit.

What I'm most fascinated to see is if that results in more MLB contracts going to MiLB players--if the theory is that players in arbitration will be less likely to sign away arb/FA years now that they'll be paid more, I can see teams going to AA players far more aggressively.  I can see a world where the Twins offer Austin Martin a 6 year, $20M contract with two option years at $12M and $15M; for Martin, worst case scenario is he retires having cleared something like $12M-$13M after taxes.  Best case scenario he hits FA after his age 30 season having cleared $25M-$26M after taxes.