How Twins fans have been spoiled by a lack of mediocrity for two decades

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yes, I know, the Twins and their postseason woes. It seems like an eternity ago when they last won a postseason game: I know better than most, as I was living what feels like a separate life, sitting in (then) Edison Field, watching the Red Sox battle the Angels as the Twins lost their first postseason game of the series a few thousand miles away, starting the postseason tailspin that continues through to this day.

But... we have seen many postseasons in the past 20 years, even if their ending was always premature and usually brutal. On top of that, we've been relatively lucky to not watch a bunch of mediocre baseball during the regular season, either. I was thinking about the nearly two decades of postseason futility and realized just how few seasons there were that felt like the team was going through the motions, neither succeeding nor failing.

So I looked it up. While we've seen a lot of both bad and good baseball in Minnesota, we haven't seen much mediocrity. The way I'm defining mediocrity in baseball is the 10-game +/- around .500 baseball, records between 76-86 and 86-76. Basically, the territory where (American League, at least) teams finish in the 2-4 spots in the division but very rarely make the postseason.

Here is the breakdown by year, "mediocre" years in bold:

2002: 1st (postseason)
2003: 1st (postseason)
2005: 3rd - 85 wins
2006: 1st (postseason)
2007: 3rd - 79 wins
2008: 2nd (game 163 loss)
2009: 1st (postseason)
2010: 1st (postseason)
2011: 5th
2012: 5th
2013: 4th
2014: 5th
2015: 2nd - 83 wins
2016: 5th
2017: 2nd - 85 wins (postseason)
2018: 2nd - 78 wins
2019: 1st (postseason)
2020: 1st (postseason)
2021: 5th

Only five times in the past two decades have the Twins qualified as "mediocre" and they still made the postseason in one of those seasons (2017).

By comparison, the White Sox have fielded mediocre teams eight times during that stretch, Cleveland seven times, and Detroit and Kansas City done it only four times... but that's the result of being pretty terrible baseball teams, as both of them combined have fewer division titles (5) than the Twins do by themselves (8). If a team is awful almost every season for two decades, mediocrity probably looks pretty appealing.

Is a yo-yo approach to competition better than perpetual mediocrity? Hard to say for certain - we've only experienced one side of the coin - but I'd take all of those competitive seasons (and non-competitive rebuilding seasons) over a string of mediocrity that never leads anywhere. It's no fun having your heart broken in October over and over again but I'll still take that result over apathy.

Will this newest result lead to more of the same or are the Twins set to rebound? Only time will tell, CBA and greedy MLB ownership willing.

[bean5302]

I think memories are more fickle than you're expressing here. The Twins have 3 of their past 7 years in mediocrity and while the team was definitely bad in 2011-2012, fans and the front office seemed to view the team as mediocre, but terribly unlucky, with a couple holes they needed to plug.

I think the yo-yo is better, but I don't think the rebuild phase is even necessary for teams who can afford to budget well over $150MM every year. The rebuild phase would generally get lengthier and the competitive window smaller as the team's budget decreases. 

One of the big reasons I believe the yo-yo is valuable is the enormous amount of cash that gets pumped into franchises making it to the World Series a couple times in a competitive window. i.e. Royals. Average payroll for the 5 years before their first World Series from 2010-2014 was $68MM (low $36MM). From 2015-2019, it was $110MM (low $68MM). The cash starved, poor stadium location, epitome of small market Royals were frequently spending more than the Twins.

Success breeds success.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I think memories are more fickle than you're expressing here. The Twins have 3 of their past 7 years in mediocrity and while the team was definitely bad in 2011-2012, fans and the front office seemed to view the team as mediocre, but terribly unlucky, with a couple holes they needed to plug.

I think the yo-yo is better, but I don't think the rebuild phase is even necessary for teams who can afford to budget well over $150MM every year. The rebuild phase would generally get lengthier and the competitive window smaller as the team's budget decreases. 

One of the big reasons I believe the yo-yo is valuable is the enormous amount of cash that gets pumped into franchises making it to the World Series a couple times in a competitive window. i.e. Royals. Average payroll for the 5 years before their first World Series from 2010-2014 was $68MM (low $36MM). From 2015-2019, it was $110MM (low $68MM). The cash starved, poor stadium location, epitome of small market Royals were frequently spending more than the Twins.

Success breeds success.

Regency bias is a good point. 5 of the last 20… but 3 of them in the last 7 is 40%.

[wsnydes]

Part of this, to me anyway, is that the division has been so bad for most of this timeframe.  That makes even the good years seem more average-ish.  With maybe the exception of 2010, I never thought this team was better than the opponent they faced in the first round of the playoffs.  That doesn't excuse them from not winning a single game (or even a series), but perhaps gives a more realistic view on all of the lost series.  And in my mind, that trickles down to the regular season eventually.  And my main complaint during most of the 2010s was that this team was treading water; neither improving nor getting worse and doing little in the way of trying to do anything about it.  They only continued to do the same thing until the FO changed over.  

It's not the team's fault that the division is what it is/was and it's certainly better to be the best of that division than not, but being good enough to win a crummy division and little else doesn't really make me feel all that better.  Yes, it's more fun to watch winning baseball than not, but I guess that I set my sights a little higher than that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

Regency bias is a good point. 5 of the last 20… but 3 of them in the last 7 is 40%.

True, but their only “mediocre” postseason appearance also came during one of those seasons thanks to a quirky AL that year.

But recency bias starts and ends where one chooses it to start and end. I could just as easily say the Twins haven’t had a mediocre season in the past three years. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Part of this, to me anyway, is that the division has been so bad for most of this timeframe.  That makes even the good years seem more average-ish.  With maybe the exception of 2010, I never thought this team was better than the opponent they faced in the first round of the playoffs.  That doesn't excuse them from not winning a single game (or even a series), but perhaps gives a more realistic view on all of the lost series.  And in my mind, that trickles down to the regular season eventually.  And my main complain during most of the 2010s was that this team was treading water; neither improving nor getting worse and doing little in the way of trying to do anything about it.  They only continued to do the same thing until the FO changed over.  

It's not the team's fault that the division is what it is/was and it's certainly better to be the best of that division than not, but being good enough to win a crummy division and little else doesn't really make me feel all that better.  Yes, it's more fun to watch winning baseball than not, but I guess that I set my sights a little higher than that.

If we're going to talk about the general weakness of the AL Central, imagine how it must feel to be a fan of one of the teams that hasn't won the division 40% of the time over the past few decades.

There are undoubtedly advantages to playing in the ALC compared to the ALE but there are also four teams that the Twins trounce in the regular season on a routine basis. What's their excuse?

[wsnydes]

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If we're going to talk about the general weakness of the AL Central, imagine how it must feel to be a fan of one of the teams that hasn't won the division 40% of the time over the past few decades.

There are undoubtedly advantages to playing in the ALC compared to the ALE but there are also four teams that the Twins trounce in the regular season on a routine basis. What's their excuse?

Definitely.  They either don't have one, or subscribe to a different organizational philosophy.  What annoys me most about the Twins is that other teams have taken the momentum they've built after bottoming out and won something.  They've made a deep run in the playoffs.  This team, despite having lesser peaks and valleys, can't build on that when it's "easier" for them to build upon on a solid foundation rather than having to build from the ground up to do it.  That's my frustration.  The Twins are the only team in the division to not have a WS appearance this century.

Being perpetually decent has it's plusses and minuses.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Another way to look at this to adjust for the overall strength of the division is pure probability in a vacuum...

On a pure probability basis the Twins should finish 1/5 40% of the time but they've done it 60% of the time.

Inversely, on a pure probability basis the Twins should finish 2/3/4 60% of the time but they've done it only 40% of the time.

[LastOnePicked]

26 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

but there are also four teams that the Twins trounce in the regular season on a routine basis. What's their excuse?

Chicago strong. Detroit and KC rising. File this under: "Famous last words."

I'm kidding. I mean ... I hope I'm kidding.

[Rosterman]

Baseball is a funny sport. You can sell being competitive. And the hopes for coming out of April into May in a good spot is intense. But, yes, we are sold on beingg excited as the Twins face a bunch of teams on the same level (any superstars in the Central compared to either coast). 

 

And then we are sold as being the underdog, shades of 87 and 91, and that it will be a miracle if we survive the post-season because we are not good enough to be here but are here.

 

And next we then hum and ho about how we just needed "x" to go all the way.

[LastOnePicked]

26 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

What annoys me most about the Twins is that other teams have taken the momentum they've built after bottoming out and won something.  They've made a deep run in the playoffs.

Exactly this. Who remembers much about any regular season? Any baseball season is pretty enjoyable to a baseball fan, even when your team is mediocre.

I get your point, but I don't think Twins fans are "spoiled" by anything at this point - our team hasn't won anything when it counts. We have the second-longest postseason victory drought in all of MLB. When we celebrate a Twin in mid-to-late October, it's only by watching them play for another team.

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, LastOnePicked said:

Exactly this. Who remembers much about any regular season? Any baseball season is pretty enjoyable to a baseball fan, even when your team is mediocre.

I get your point, but I don't think Twins fans are "spoiled" by anything at this point - our team hasn't won anything when it counts. We have the second-longest postseason victory drought in all of MLB. When we celebrate a Twin in mid-to-late October, it's only by watching them play for another team.

I'm not arguing the spoiled aspect at all, actually.  I might even be slightly off topic if you read both of my posts above, since I'm not really making a point either way.

Fortunate, maybe.  Spoiled, not so much.

[LastOnePicked]

1 minute ago, wsnydes said:

I'm not arguing the spoiled aspect at all

No, that's my fault, wsyndes. I was agreeing with your post and then responding to the title of the article itself. You were completely clear, but my response wasn't. And, you were spot-on.

[KFEY93]

I dont know about most users here, but I count not making the play offs as being mediocre. Especially considering the competition in the division over the past decade +. Iv viewed this team as nothing but mediocre every season since 2010 except 2019. That is it. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 minutes ago, KFEY93 said:

I dont know about most users here, but I count not making the play offs as being mediocre. Especially considering the competition in the division over the past decade +. Iv viewed this team as nothing but mediocre every season since 2010 except 2019. That is it. 

That's literally not the definition of the word but okay.

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I was agreeing with your post and then responding to the title of the article itself.

"Spoiled" is different than "spoiled by a lack of mediocrity". I'm speaking specifically about one thing and that's how the Twins rarely meander through a season and either go for a high pick or make the postseason. The title of the topic specifically calls out that one thing.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If we're going to talk about the general weakness of the AL Central, imagine how it must feel to be a fan of one of the teams that hasn't won the division 40% of the time over the past few decades.

There are undoubtedly advantages to playing in the ALC compared to the ALE but there are also four teams that the Twins trounce in the regular season on a routine basis. What's their excuse?

Their excuse is World Series appearances and victories?

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Their excuse is World Series appearances and victories?

Yeah, I forget how many ticker tape parades have been celebrated in ALC cities over the past two decades. Oh, wait, I know the number. Two.

It's super-irritating to create a thread that specifically talks about regular season performance and constantly be hit with "herr derr POSTSEASON" because that's all Twins fans can ever talk about.

We're all aware of the Twins postseason futility. I literally mention it in the first sentence of this topic.

[wsnydes]

28 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, I forget how many ticker tape parades have been celebrated in ALC cities over the past two decades. Oh, wait, I know the number. Two.

It's super-irritating to create a thread that specifically talks about regular season performance and constantly be hit with "herr derr POSTSEASON" because that's all Twins fans can ever talk about.

We're all aware of the Twins postseason futility. I literally mention it in the first sentence of this topic.

The Twins are the only team in the division not to have a WS appearance in those two decades though.  This despite being the most successful (and arguably most consistent?) within said division during the regular season.  That kinda stings.

I get where you're coming from though.  The playoff futility overshadows what the team has been able to accomplish during the regular seasons.  The issue becomes that those accomplishments are wasted in the postseason, rendering them largely moot to many.

[chopper0080]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yes, I know, the Twins and their postseason woes. It seems like an eternity ago when they last won a postseason game: I know better than most, as I was living what feels like a separate life, sitting in (then) Edison Field, watching the Red Sox battle the Angels as the Twins lost their first postseason game of the series a few thousand miles away, starting the postseason tailspin that continues through to this day.

But... we have seen many postseasons in the past 20 years, even if their ending was always premature and usually brutal. On top of that, we've been relatively lucky to not watch a bunch of mediocre baseball during the regular season, either. I was thinking about the nearly two decades of postseason futility and realized just how few seasons there were that felt like the team was going through the motions, neither succeeding nor failing.

So I looked it up. While we've seen a lot of both bad and good baseball in Minnesota, we haven't seen much mediocrity. The way I'm defining mediocrity in baseball is the 10-game +/- around .500 baseball, records between 76-86 and 86-76. Basically, the territory where (American League, at least) teams finish in the 2-4 spots in the division but very rarely make the postseason.

Here is the breakdown by year, "mediocre" years in bold:

2002: 1st (postseason)
2003: 1st (postseason)
2005: 3rd - 85 wins
2006: 1st (postseason)
2007: 3rd - 79 wins
2008: 2nd (game 163 loss)
2009: 1st (postseason)
2010: 1st (postseason)
2011: 5th
2012: 5th
2013: 4th
2014: 5th
2015: 2nd - 83 wins
2016: 5th
2017: 2nd - 85 wins (postseason)
2018: 2nd - 78 wins
2019: 1st (postseason)
2020: 1st (postseason)
2021: 5th

Only five times in the past two decades have the Twins qualified as "mediocre" and they still made the postseason in one of those seasons (2017).

By comparison, the White Sox have fielded mediocre teams eight times during that stretch, Cleveland seven times, and Detroit and Kansas City done it only four times... but that's the result of being pretty terrible baseball teams, as both of them combined have fewer division titles (5) than the Twins do by themselves (8). If a team is awful almost every season for two decades, mediocrity probably looks pretty appealing.

Is a yo-yo approach to competition better than perpetual mediocrity? Hard to say for certain - we've only experienced one side of the coin - but I'd take all of those competitive seasons (and non-competitive rebuilding seasons) over a string of mediocrity that never leads anywhere. It's no fun having your heart broken in October over and over again but I'll still take that result over apathy.

Will this newest result lead to more of the same or are the Twins set to rebound? Only time will tell, CBA and greedy MLB ownership willing.

It is interesting how looking at the past 19 years differs from the past 11 and how that differs from the last 5. I know you specify that you are not including the postseason but it is tough to exclude an organization's performance in the most important games when discussing whether or not a team has been mediocre. Where I struggle is that I don't feel like the team has competitive for a World Series since 2010. I don't know if that is because there has been a lack of star power or what, but even when we have recently been a playoff team, we have never felt like a team that could win. To me, that is the ugly world of mediocrity for an organization.

[LastOnePicked]

45 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's super-irritating to create a thread that specifically talks about regular season performance and constantly be hit with "herr derr POSTSEASON" because that's all Twins fans can ever talk about.

I get it, and I know I'm guilty of this. I guess my response is rooted in the idea that the regular season matters for individual performances, but not for a team. Nobody really cares what a team's regular season record is. Most regular season games are played without much pressure and not all that many fans. Memories are made in the postseason. 

Plus, I get bristly when team ownership and FO defend the team's annual failings by pointing to regular season successes. To me, it's like claiming you're a great baker of cakes yet you just don't have a recipe for frosting. Sorry, a cake without frosting just isn't worth talking about. Or eating.

But yes, I get it, my dead horse is now thoroughly beaten. Just don't trigger me with even the suggestion of "spoiled Twins fans."

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I get it, and I know I'm guilty of this. I guess my response is rooted in the idea that the regular season matters for individual performances, but not for a team. Nobody really cares what a team's regular season record is. Most regular season games are played without much pressure and not all that many fans. Memories are made in the postseason. 

Plus, I get bristly when team ownership and FO defend the team's annual failings by pointing to regular season successes. To me, it's like claiming you're a great baker of cakes yet you just don't have a recipe for frosting. Sorry, a cake without frosting just isn't worth talking about. Or eating.

But yes, I get it, my dead horse is now thoroughly beaten. Just don't trigger me with even the suggestion of "spoiled Twins fans."

I share everyone's postseason frustration, I share it as much as anyone.

But the thing is we've all had A LOT of fun watching these teams win divisions for six month-long regular seasons. Sure, the postseason futility overshadows that success and enjoyment but I remember having a hell of a lot of fun through many an August and September over the years. That counts for something and shouldn't be ignored.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, I forget how many ticker tape parades have been celebrated in ALC cities over the past two decades. Oh, wait, I know the number. Two.

It's super-irritating to create a thread that specifically talks about regular season performance and constantly be hit with "herr derr POSTSEASON" because that's all Twins fans can ever talk about.

We're all aware of the Twins postseason futility. I literally mention it in the first sentence of this topic.

 

You asked what the excuse for teams the Twins beat in the regular season was. Their excuse could well be "we've been to the World Series" and who cares if the Twins beat us when it didn't matter?

• Chicago 2005
• Detroit 2006, 2012
• Cleveland 2016
• Kansas City 2014, 2015

If you're arguing going to the World Series has no value to a team or a fan base or the regular season record is more important than the yo-yo getting a team to the World Series because there aren't enough parades for league championships I'm not sure we have a fundamental area of agreement to debate from.

[Hunter48]

The Pohlads must be thrilled having fans with such low expectations. The past 20 years of twins baseball are filled with mediocrity...

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

 

You asked what the excuse for teams the Twins beat in the regular season was.

Yeah, I did. Then you talked (and continue to talk) a bunch about the postseason.

Cut it out already.

[Brock Beauchamp]

39 minutes ago, Hunter48 said:

The Pohlads must be thrilled having fans with such low expectations. The past 20 years of twins baseball are filled with mediocrity...

[DocBauer]

While I share everyone's frustration with the lack of post season success, SURPRISING lack of success some years, I do agree with Brock's sentiment. I've had more than a few years over the past 2 decades really enjoying tuning in to a game on TV or radio when my beloved Twins were competitive and winning and actually had a shot. Because in any sport, all you can try to do is win as much as you can and get that post season SHOT. That's important to me as a fan. And I'd take that every year vs mediocrity, or just awful with no chance.

[bean5302]

Since it doesn't seem to me the long term 81-81 condition you think is worse is at all common in MLB, it's kind of moot to argue the Twins fans are spoiled by not living it.

The regular season is a means to a end for a lot of fans, fairweather as they may be. A few more regular season wins won't sell any more tickets than a 81-81 team sells. There isn't any more hope involved in my opinion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Since it doesn't seem to me the long term 81-81 condition you think is worse is at all common in MLB,

Dude, it kinda feels like you're trolling me at this point. You keep reframing my statements into something they absolutely are not. I was very clear with. my statements and definitions here.

Quote

The way I'm defining mediocrity in baseball is the 10-game +/- around .500 baseball, records between 76-86 and 86-76. 

 

[KFEY93]

18 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That's literally not the definition of the word but okay.

What would you call that then? Good. Because they weren't that word either.