Twins Minor League Pitching Report: Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

The Minnesota Twins kicked off their 2021 trade deadline by shipping fan-favorite and teammate extraordinaire Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Triple-A hurlers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman.

Most publications will herald Joe Ryan as the primary chip returning to the Twins - MLB Pipeline lists him as the team's No. 6 prospect - though he wasn't always a high-level prospect.

Ryan was the Rays' seventh-round selection out of Cal State, Stanislaus in 2018, though we could not confirm if Cal State, Stanislaus is an actual university. Ryan boasted a 1.65 ERA in 98 ⅓ innings while posting a ridiculous 127/13 K:BB ratio, which was more than enough to get him on MLB teams' radar. Ryan never posted a FIP higher than 3.24 while in the Rays' system, and his strikeout and walk rates remained near the top in the organization replete with pitching talent.

At first glance, Ryan's stuff doesn't appear to be all that electric. His fastball touches the mid-90s but most often sits 91-93 with a good ride. 

His changeup isn't particularly exciting, and his curveball, while good, is not going to draw out batters' swords over and over again, at least not right now.

And yet, he has never posted a K/9 rate lower than 11.84 nor a WHIP higher than 1.13 in his minor league career. 

What makes Ryan such an exciting prospect is his command, which is instantly the most prolific in the Twins' system. 

Ryan can place the ball, particularly his fastball, which primarily resides at the top of the zone, with pinpoint accuracy, allowing him to nibble at the corners without issuing free passes. His pitch mix - which also includes a pretty mediocre cutter at the moment when viewed in isolation - plays exceptionally well off of each other, with all his offerings featuring the same arm slot. 

Essentially, the complete package that is Joe Ryan is greater than the sum of his parts. He doesn't have a glaring weakness like many of the pitching prospects in the Twins' system. Instead, the only question is whether or not his stuff will play at the MLB level, and there isn't a ton of evidence at the moment to suggest it won't.

However, while simply securing a pitcher of Ryan's caliber would have been enough to consider the trade of Cruz as a win for the Twins, he wasn't the only pitching prospect the team brought back.

Drew Strotman similarly hailed from humble beginnings before rising towards the top of the Rays' farm system. He was the team's fourth-round pick in 2017 out of St. Mary's College, where he owned a career 5.26 ERA in 59 appearances, with only 14 coming as starts.

However, unlike with Ryan, it becomes apparent why the Rays' coveted him when looking at film. Strotman's stuff is truly electric.

His fastball sits 91-94 mph, and, like Ryan, he likes to keep it up in the zone. 

His changeup plays well off the fastball and features significant tailing action.

He also owns a good curveball and a slider or cutter, depending on which publication you read.

Strotman owns a legit four-pitch mix; however, for what he boasts in offerings, he lacks significantly in command and strikeout numbers. 

If Strotman can figure out how to throw more strikes, he'll find himself in the Twins' starting rotation for years to come. If he can't, he'll likely find a home in the bullpen where he may experience an uptick in fastball velocity and likely rely more heavily on his curveball. 

All in all, the Twins picked up two athletes in exchange for Nelson Cruz that are similar in prospect pedigree to that of, say, Matt Canterino and Chris Vallimont. That's a haul for a 41-year-old designated hitter who may or may not re-sign following the 2021 season. Regardless of how the trade ultimately plays out, the Twins would have been crazy not to accept the Rays' offer.

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[bighat]

Thanks for this informative breakdown! Looking forward to following these guys, hope they'll suit up for a start in St. Paul shortly.

[jorgenswest]

Eno Sarris in his Rates and Barrels podcast sees Ryan similar in style to Ben Lively and Yusmiero Petit in his fastball use and the way he hides the ball. Another comp is Freddy Peralta.

No starter uses the fastball as much as Ryan. Early in his career Peralta threw the fastball nearly 80% of the time. Now in his fourth year Peralta has a good slider which has made his fastball a very good weapon using it 55% of the time.

What is the best path for Ryan towards success in a starting rotation? It is going to take time. This is Peralta’s fourth season. Ben Lively is in Korea. Petit eventually settled in a career as a set up reliever. Should he start as an opener or following an opener seeing batters once or twice with heavy use of his fastball? Will he need to bounce back and forth to the minors for a few years developing pitches to complement his fastball?

Ryan is major league ready for 2022 in the sense that he has success as he moved up the ladder. He might not be ready to be a successful major leaguer without a few years of growing pains. Can we wait through that struggle?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Eno Sarris in his Rates and Barrels podcast sees Ryan similar in style to Ben Lively and Yusmiero Petit in his fastball use and the way he hides the ball. Another comp is Freddy Peralta.

No starter uses the fastball as much as Ryan. Early in his career Peralta threw the fastball nearly 80% of the time. Now in his fourth year Peralta has a good slider which has made his fastball a very good weapon using it 55% of the time.

What is the best path for Ryan towards success in a starting rotation? It is going to take time. This is Peralta’s fourth season. Ben Lively is in Korea. Petit eventually settled in a career as a set up reliever. Should he start as an opener or following an opener seeing batters once or twice with heavy use of his fastball? Will he need to bounce back and forth to the minors for a few years developing pitches to complement his fastball?

Ryan is major league ready for 2022 in the sense that he has success as he moved up the ladder. He might not be ready to be a successful major leaguer without a few years of growing pains. Can we wait through that struggle?

All the more reason to bring him up sooner rather than later. The thing going in Ryan's favor that may suggest his growing pains may not be as severe as the other two is his great command. That allows him to sit on the corners and place the fastball where it will be most successful. Also, if he can add 1-3 mph, it'll play even better. He'll definitely need to further develop his other offerings, but it isn't often that a pitcher dominates in the minors like he has and then struggles mightily once they reach the bigs.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I don't suppose there is a right up handy of the double a pitcher that accompanied Cruz, is there?

 

Hope they land on their feet in the Tampa Bay farm system.

[twinfan]

As I said in a comment in another forum, I have seen these guys at Durham. Ryan looks like he could become a number 2 or 3 starter, if you believe in such numbers, and should have success at the major league level. Strotman might become a major league starter (maybe a 5) but seems to be able to fit closer to a long reliever. He has more potential to develop a few more mph on his fastball but does not have good enough command now and it could get worse if he tries to throw harder. Maybe he could pitch a 7th or 8th inning and rely mostly on fastballs. I guess we'll see. I was not in favor of trading Cruz and would have liked us to extend him a year but maybe we can sign him in the off-season though I doubt it. He will love playing for Tampa and they will love him.

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

12 hours ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

I don't suppose there is a right up handy of the double a pitcher that accompanied Cruz, is there?

 

Hope they land on their feet in the Tampa Bay farm system.

Faucher is a Double-A reliever with good K numbers but a high ERA and BB totals. Unlikely to reach the majors in my estimation, but if there's a team to unlock anything in him it's the Rays.