A Bold Twins Trade

[Cap'n Piranha]

12 hours ago, Twinfan603 said:

I think the Padres are pretty secure where they are. The Giants' rise interferes a bit, but I'd be surprised to see them deal away much prospect capital this year. They're trying to keep pace with the Dodgers and there's only so many high-end guys you can continually trade away.

If I'm the Padres, I'm a bit worried.  I'm 4 games behind the Giants, and I'm looking at our remaining schedules--the Padres have to go up against a .577 opponents winning percentage, whereas the Giants are up against only .488 (the Pads have to win 5 more games against the equivalent of a 93 win team than the Giants do against the equivalent of a 79 win team).  The nightmare scenario is facing the Dodgers in a one game playoff in Chavez Ravine (also worth noting, the Dodgers play a schedule with a winning percentage of .601, the equivalent of a 97 win team).

[Cap'n Piranha]

9 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

 I like the idea.  Losing Buxton and Berrios for comp picks would be detrimental for several years in the near future.  However, San Diego traded for Darvish / Snall and did not give up any top prospects.  All teams have become increasingly reluctant to give up top prospects.  The end result would be great.  I just think we will need to get fortunate in finding a couple trade partners willing to give up one top prospect for Berrios or Buxton.  

Darvish and Snell are also more expensive than Berrios and Buxton, and Darvish is 34.  Each also only has one more year of control than Berrios and Buxton, so a couple of things that are at least offsetting, if not in Berrios/Buxton's favor.  If the Padres aren't willing to give up at least 1 Top 100 guy each for Buxton/Berrios, you can just casually mention you need to return a call from SF/LAD.

[Otto von Ballpark]

48 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Wow, looks like BTV is in love with Abrams.  Seems like he's pretty untouchable if the Padres feel this way as well.

Fangraphs gives Abrams a 60 FV right now, and this article from a few years ago pegged that at $56 mil value. BTV is likely just based on that.

Abrams is #5 overall at Fangraphs, and was consensus top 11 in all the preseason rankings too.

[Major League Ready]

24 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Darvish and Snell are also more expensive than Berrios and Buxton, and Darvish is 34.  Each also only has one more year of control than Berrios and Buxton, so a couple of things that are at least offsetting, if not in Berrios/Buxton's favor.  If the Padres aren't willing to give up at least 1 Top 100 guy each for Buxton/Berrios, you can just casually mention you need to return a call from SF/LAD.

Absolutely.  I was not making a comp.  I was pointing out they pursued options that they did not require them to give up top prospects.  It's tough to get anyone to give up top 50 prospects.  I just don't know if they can get it done which is why I have prefaced my positions on Berrios/Buxton with "if they can get an elite SP/CF or SS prospect.  I also don't believe that either player is going to give up the opportunity to test free agency so anything (like your idea) that nets a good return is far more preferable to losing them to a big market team willing to bid a bit crazy.  A team is going to forget Buxton is injured every year and that Berrios is a 2/3 on a Contender.

[RpR]

On 6/28/2021 at 3:20 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

My proposal; send Berrios, Buxton, Rogers, and Sano (while also paying for the rest of his contract, including buyout.  If the Padres pick up the option, they send the buyout back to the Twins).  The Twins get from the Padres Gore, Abrams, Hassell, Haynes, and Lizarraga.

The Padres immediately increase their chances to win the West (it seems likely the two wild cards will come from the NL West; do you really want to worry about having to beat the Dodgers in a 50-50 game?).  They also keep all of those guys for next year, giving them a nice two year window to win a title.

 

Yep, direct route to send Twins to another 100 loss season, brilliant.

 

[tony&rodney]

The Padres are selling out every game for the rest of the season with his trade.

[Seansy]

The only way this trade comes close is if the Twins keep Sano AND take Hosmer's entire contract. Even then San Diego may still say no.