Souhan: Twins Pitching Loaded With Questions

[Highabove]

Lets see, Souhan has stated that he likes 90% of the moves that Ryan has made during the off Season. A few days later, Souhan writes about how the Twins pitching staff is a total mess.

I believe Ryan stated last October, Pitching was going to be his number one priority. But again, the Twins make a lot of promises during Season Ticket renewal time.

[LaBombo]

I'm confused by Ryan's belief that Deduno won't put up enough innings because he can't throw strikes. How is that different from starters who won't put up innings because they can't get anyone out? Correia's gonna put up innings? Please.

 

He will if you leave him in despite the carnage. It's not like he needs to leave the park early so he can sell plasma to make ends meet.

 

You are a learned TD poster, so I'm wondering why you do not yet grasp the difference between pitchers who may suck because they don't pitch The Twins' Way, and those pretty much doomed to suck because they do. But no worries. Just read some Nick Blackburm/Rick Anderson tweets about keeping the ball down and you'll totally get it. Totally.

[PseudoSABR]

Its not really that I think every collection of independent events will turn out negative, its just that I dont see nearly enough talent in this group to overcome even just some of them going negative.

If worse case scenario were to hit (meaning all of them turning negative), I think this rotation could be historically bad.

Like someone else said, its not just pitchers coming from the NL, 2 of them are coming off significant surgeries, so they carry even more risk than just the standard NL to AL switch.

I'm not convinced that Pelfrey is anywhere near ready to pitch, I mean what is he throwing right now, mid to high 80's? With his lack of movement, he needs his typical low to mid 90's just to be the serviceable pitcher that he was before the surgery. I hope they dont rush him out there knowing he's not ready, because IMO it could get ugly.

 

I also think its hard to know what you are going to get from Worley. He was good his rookie year, pretty bad last year. So many variables though: smallish sample size, his first year looks fairly lucky, last year looks fairly unlucky, he was pitching through injury, its just so hard to tell what to expect from him.

 

I think they are trying to be optimistic about Gibson, but the whispers I am hearing are that internally they are trying not to count on anything from him this year.

 

To me there are just so many ? marks, and IMO not even the majority of them need to go negative to be pretty bad, because i'm just not seeing much talent there to begin with.

 

But, this is why they dont play the games on paper, right! Only time will tell.

I don't mean to mock you, but I feel this post is indicative of my point about rationalizing the negative outcome. There's a perfectly reasonable line of thinking that suggests a Twins disaster, but that reason isn't necessarily probable. We can justify our negative (or positive) outlook with any number of pieces of evidence--but the average probable outcome is still the average probable outcome; taking the downside is by definition unreasonable.

 

That said, I believe that the Twins can get 180 innings of mediocrity from all of Pelfry, Corriea, Diamond, and Worley, which is FAR more than they got last year. Moreover, I think it's probablistically likely that one (or more) of the pitchers with health concerns or one (or more) of the prospects will emerge to eat positive innings this year.

 

While all of Diamond, Worley, Correia, and Pelfry might digress from there career norms--the thing is--it is still a boon to the rotation given how horrible it was last year. Moreover, I think it's silly to think that all four will digress, and more silly that some other starting pitching won't emerge.

 

We may scoff at the notion that our pitching depth is significantly better than last year, but it just is. While we might still have the seventh and eighth starting option in play, the Twins know significantly more about such pitchers than they did last year, and that's a boon. The Twins won't be in the position of blindly promoting the able arm in line--they will be in a much better position to use their pitching depth, because they know far more about such pitchers having seen them a year ago.

 

Again, we are looking at a baseline of mediocrity, but that baseline, that safety net, is held significantly higher than last year. There should be no pitcher starting a game this year that we've never heard of--that says something. Yes, we suck, but really, not as bad as last year, guys; I'm not sure why that is so hard to admit.

 

I'll also add, that no, the Twins didn't do everything within their payroll power or their roster means to improve the rotation, so we have every right to be bitter--but that bitterness shouldn't make us opaque to improved starting rotation depth, how thread-barren it might seem.

[PseudoSABR]

Why would it get better?

A matter of circumstance mostly. Unhealthy pitchers should get healthier, prospects should develop, the butt-ends of our depth should learn from their experience. Whether the 'shoulds' make due will be the tale of the season. But I'm not seeing any swaying evidence whether our rotation will be mostly Pollyannas or Candides.

 

Again, don't get me wrong we'll suck. But our starting pitching should improve as the season moves along; given the low bar, I'm not really sure how much that actually means.

[Top Gun]

I know one thing, I would not want a Twins SP on my team.

[jokin]

A matter of circumstance mostly. Unhealthy pitchers should get healthier, prospects should develop, the butt-ends of our depth should learn from their experience. Whether the 'shoulds' make due will be the tale of the season. But I'm not seeing any swaying evidence whether our rotation will be mostly Pollyannas or Candides.

 

Again, don't get me wrong we'll suck. But our starting pitching should improve as the season moves along; given the low bar, I'm not really sure how much that actually means.

 

Holy Set of Expectations Whiplash!

 

Can you square the circle(-ular argument) for me, against your previous quote:

 

I don't mean to mock you, but I feel this post is indicative of my point about rationalizing the negative outcome. There's a perfectly reasonable line of thinking that suggests a Twins disaster, but that reason isn't necessarily probable. We can justify our negative (or positive) outlook with any number of pieces of evidence--but the average probable outcome is still the average probable outcome; taking the downside is by definition unreasonable.

 

 

 

Or this:

 

Again, we are looking at a baseline of mediocrity, but that baseline, that safety net, is held significantly higher than last year.

 

1) Please help me out, are you saying that "we'll suck" is indicative of a mockworthy "rationalization" or simply "definitionally unreasonable"?

 

2) Are we all supposed to rally around the "baseline of mediocrity" and sit more comfortably in our "safety net" hammock because we've added two more fibers to the twine holding it up in the trees?- because if, as you say, we're going to "suck" anyways, the net is going to come crashing down, regardless.

[jokin]

The Strib's Jim Souhan sees all the good things about the Twins - their future, their health, Aaron Hicks - but also sees a pitching staff that has plenty of questions. And a team that might be grasping at straws on Day One....

 

 

 

And so it begins. I want to see this team do well, but this could get ugly in a hurry if the starting pitching falls to pieces early again. And I have to wonder if the guy who is going to catch the heat isn't the guy above Gardy on the org chart. (And he probably should.)

 

Souhan: Twins hurting in bullpen, and have a shaky rotation | StarTribune.com

 

Seems to me the standard that Ryan has to meet has been set on the financial side, not the W-L record, so until the latter significantly impacts the former, the heat Ryan feels from the furnace will probably remain on auto-pilot.

[PseudoSABR]

You know, it's entirely possible for me to accept that our pitching staff will suck, be mediocre across aboard, and also assert that the same pitching staff will be much better than last year's staff.

 

Look, we don't have much to root for but varying degrees of suck; but I'm still interested in precision or at least prudent prognosis. Taking the transitions-to-the-AL don't work, the twins don't develop pitchers, injured pitchers never heal stance for each and every case is unreasonable, silly.

[jokin]

Hey, I'm all about Hendricks building. Maybe even Deduno. But your whole post seems to be intentionally missing the point, no?

 

There's been an outbreak of that going on lately:

 

 

http://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/chuckandbeans_5821.jpg

[jokin]

You know, it's entirely possible for me to accept that our pitching staff will suck, be mediocre across aboard, and also assert that the same pitching staff will be much better than last year's staff.

 

Look, we don't have much to root for but varying degrees of suck; but I'm still interested in precision or at least prudent prognosis. Taking the transitions-to-the-AL don't work, the twins don't develop pitchers, injured pitchers never heal stance for each and every case is unreasonable, silly.

 

I will agree with you that the depth situation may improve. Young arms develop and we have more coaching impact from new sources in Cuellar and Steinbach. And I wouldn't mind one bit if they fast-track the next set of prospect arms to the majors, especially if we are all settled on the road to 95-100 losses by the end of May, anyway. On your second point, we agree that they are going to probably suck, moving the SP ERA down from an abominable 5.40 in 2012 to say, just an awful 4.80-5.00 might be marginally "better" and more realistic than to assert the staff will be "much better" without much supporting evidence to assert such a claim.

[cmathewson]

The main difference between this year and last year is depth. Last year, the whole rotation collapsed and they had nobody with major league starting experience to pick up the slack. And they had no decent prospects available. Luckily, Diamond, DeVries and Deduno exceeded expectations to have decent years. And Hendriks got some much-needed major league experience. Two of those four are depth this year, with Gibson and Meyers waiting for an opportunity. That is significantly better than the situation we were in at this time last year.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't mean to mock you, but I feel this post is indicative of my point about rationalizing the negative outcome. There's a perfectly reasonable line of thinking that suggests a Twins disaster, but that reason isn't necessarily probable. We can justify our negative (or positive) outlook with any number of pieces of evidence--but the average probable outcome is still the average probable outcome; taking the downside is by definition unreasonable.

 

That said, I believe that the Twins can get 180 innings of mediocrity from all of Pelfry, Corriea, Diamond, and Worley, which is FAR more than they got last year. Moreover, I think it's probablistically likely that one (or more) of the pitchers with health concerns or one (or more) of the prospects will emerge to eat positive innings this year.

 

While all of Diamond, Worley, Correia, and Pelfry might digress from there career norms--the thing is--it is still a boon to the rotation given how horrible it was last year. Moreover, I think it's silly to think that all four will digress, and more silly that some other starting pitching won't emerge.

 

We may scoff at the notion that our pitching depth is significantly better than last year, but it just is. While we might still have the seventh and eighth starting option in play, the Twins know significantly more about such pitchers than they did last year, and that's a boon. The Twins won't be in the position of blindly promoting the able arm in line--they will be in a much better position to use their pitching depth, because they know far more about such pitchers having seen them a year ago.

 

Again, we are looking at a baseline of mediocrity, but that baseline, that safety net, is held significantly higher than last year. There should be no pitcher starting a game this year that we've never heard of--that says something. Yes, we suck, but really, not as bad as last year, guys; I'm not sure why that is so hard to admit.

 

I'll also add, that no, the Twins didn't do everything within their payroll power or their roster means to improve the rotation, so we have every right to be bitter--but that bitterness shouldn't make us opaque to improved starting rotation depth, how thread-barren it might seem.

 

Its just as unrealistic to think that none of the possible negatives will go wrong, which this post seems to suggest.

And again, which prospects are going to eat innings? If you think that, you are counting way too much on Gibson. May and Meyer are not ready. If they were they would have been in the competition for the 4th and 5th spots.

One of them might come up in Sept, but by then there are not many innings left to eat.

[Mr. Brooks]

You know, it's entirely possible for me to accept that our pitching staff will suck, be mediocre across aboard, and also assert that the same pitching staff will be much better than last year's staff.

 

Look, we don't have much to root for but varying degrees of suck; but I'm still interested in precision or at least prudent prognosis. Taking the transitions-to-the-AL don't work, the twins don't develop pitchers, injured pitchers never heal stance for each and every case is unreasonable, silly.

 

I'm not sure how you got that out of my post. Thats not what I said at all.

I said that even if only SOME of the negatives go wrong (which some are going to, its simple probability), that could be enough to make it just as bad as last year.

I'm not saying they will go negative in every case.

[Willihammer]

Don't forget all the things that went right last year:

 

Fien, Burton, Perkins, Burnett, Diamond, Capps, DeVries, Deduno all outperformed their peripherals.

 

Burton and Fien were healthy for a full season. Perkins' has a history of back and shoulder problems, none of which re-curred last year.

 

I guess I'm not so quick to look at 2012 as some fluky deviation from the mean. In a lot of ways, we got lucky.

[Pius Jefferson]

Lets see, Souhan has stated that he likes 90% of the moves that Ryan has made during the off Season. A few days later, Souhan writes about how the Twins pitching staff is a total mess.

I believe Ryan stated last October, Pitching was going to be his number one priority. But again, the Twins make a lot of promises during Season Ticket renewal time.

 

 

He saw the pitching in person for the first time and changed his opinion.

[Longdistancetwins]

Take out the games Worley pitched against the Mets and he had the same kind of season he did the year before. That would make him a perfect Twins Ace (can't win against a New York team)

 

Hey, that's funny, but we are really not bad against the Mets, are we? I don't know the stats, but I happened to see Johan and Scott Baker make a couple of their earliest starts against the Mets that were beautiful. Out here in New York, I decided that was best for my morale--go to games against the Mets.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Droping the team ERA from a 5.4 to a 4.8 would save about 1/2 run per game. That would add to the win column...

[ThePuck]

Droping the team ERA from a 5.4 to a 4.8 would save about 1/2 run per game. That would add to the win column...

 

Then take into account we lost both two very good defensive OFs and our two table setters on offense (same guys of course). That will likely subtract from the win column.

 

Imagine what the Twins team ERA would have been without the top notch defense of Span and Revere...

[TheLeviathan]

A matter of circumstance mostly. Unhealthy pitchers should get healthier, prospects should develop, the butt-ends of our depth should learn from their experience. Whether the 'shoulds' make due will be the tale of the season. But I'm not seeing any swaying evidence whether our rotation will be mostly Pollyannas or Candides.

 

Again, don't get me wrong we'll suck. But our starting pitching should improve as the season moves along; given the low bar, I'm not really sure how much that actually means.

 

True but isn't there some high injury risks on our staff in Pelfrey and Gibson? Or at least injury aggravation concerns? My issue I that most of your hope is based on the odds of being that awful again more than on the actual talent. But in my eyes last year was far from a doomsday scenario. In many ways we could have been much worse in the ways Willihammer detailed. Last year had a very low floor and I see the same problem now. It wouldn't shock me to see similar results without the aid of a catastrophe.

[Rosterman]

Going into 2012, I wouldn't have felt that a starting staff of Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn and Marquis would only give us 13 wins at the most. And they didn't. They gave us 11! You look at the lines of non-returning starters and it was a disaster: Baker injured, Marquis 2-4 8.47, Blackburn 4-9 7.30, Pavano 2-5, 6.00, Liriano 3-10 5.31. Throw in starts by Duensing 2-8 6.92 and Swarzak 0-5 8.10...don't even consider the latter two starters anymore, please. And then we have Vasquez at 0-2 5.58 who iss still in the system, and Liam Hendriks 1-8 5.59. Pretty darn dismal.

 

But look at the 2013 guys. Pelfrey is coming off Tommy John and only made 3 starts in 2012. But before that he was 7-13 4.74. Not great, but okay. Kevin Correia was 12-11 4.20, Worley was 6-9 4.20. If we get a complete season from ALL three of these guys with similar numbers over 30+ starts, I would be happy for 2013. Scott Diamond was...interesting. For a tough offensive team, we went 12-9 3.54, But we also had nice showings from DeVries 4-4 4.11 and Deduno 6-5 4.44. None were the disaster of the other 7 the Twins thru on the mound last season. And Walters MAY have the stuff. Remember, he did pitch well before his injuory and ended the season 2-5 5.69.

 

I would fell comfortbale with more sure table setters...but Baker, Pavano, Blackburn (yes), Liriano and Marquis were all proven commodities who went south, so to speak. I didn't expect that. With the current crop of place holders, can they be any better, or any worse....that is the question.

[mcrow]

Hopefully what we see in the regular season from our starters isn't what we're seeing now or we might set a record for losses this year. Crossing fingers that they are "just working on some things" and we don't have a rotation with a 7 ERA.